Estimated population-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against all-cause pneumonia mortality among unvaccinated age groups in five Latin American countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

The role of viral interference in shaping RSV epidemics following the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) primarily affects infants, young children, and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks in the United States (US) peaking around December or January. Despite the limited implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, disrupted RSV activity was observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic, suggesting possible viral interference from influenza. Although interactions between the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus and RSV have been demonstrated at an individual level, it remains unclear whether the disruption of RSV activity at the population level can be attributed to viral interference. In this work, we first evaluated changes in the timing and intensity of RSV activity across 10 regions of the US in the years following the 2009 influenza pandemic using dynamic time warping. We observed a reduction in RSV activity following the pandemic, which was associated with intensity of influenza activity in the region. We then developed an age-stratified, two-pathogen model to examine various hypotheses regarding viral interference mechanisms. Based on our model estimates, we identified three mechanisms through which influenza infections could interfere with RSV: 1) reducing susceptibility to RSV coinfection; 2) shortening the RSV infectious period in coinfected individuals; and 3) reducing RSV infectivity in coinfection. Our study offers statistical support for the occurrence of atypical RSV seasons following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Our work also offers new insights into the mechanisms of viral interference that contribute to disruptions in RSV epidemics and provides a model-fitting framework that enables the analysis of new surveillance data for studying viral interference at the population level.

Hypertension Control During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Cohort Study Among US Veterans.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine whether disruptions in follow-up intervals contributed to hypertension control. BACKGROUND: Disruptions in health care were widespread during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified a cohort of individuals with hypertension in both prepandemic (March 2019-February 2020) and pandemic periods (March 2020-February 2022) in the Veterans Health Administration. First, we calculated follow-up intervals between the last prepandemic and first pandemic blood pressure measurement during a primary care clinic visit, and between measurements in the prepandemic period. Next, we estimated the association between the maintenance of (or achieving) hypertension control and the period using generalized estimating equations. We assessed associations between follow-up interval and control separately for periods. Finally, we evaluated the interaction between period and follow-up length. RESULTS: A total of 1,648,424 individuals met the study inclusion criteria. Among individuals with controlled hypertension, the likelihood of maintaining control was lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.93). Longer follow-up intervals were associated with a decreasing likelihood of maintaining controlled hypertension in both periods. Accounting for follow-up intervals, the likelihood of maintaining control was 2% lower during the pandemic versus the prepandemic. For uncontrolled hypertension, the likelihood of gaining control was modestly higher during the pandemic versus the prepandemic (relative risk: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.01). The likelihood of gaining control decreased with follow-up length during the prepandemic but not pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: During the pandemic, longer follow-up between measurements contributed to the lower likelihood of maintaining control. Those with uncontrolled hypertension were modestly more likely to gain control in the pandemic.

Incorporating Efficacy Data from Initial Trials Into Subsequent Evaluations: Application to Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

BACKGROUND: When a randomized controlled trial fails to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy against the primary endpoint, a potentially costly new trial would need to be conducted to receive licensure. Incorporating data from previous trials might allow for more efficient follow-up trials to demonstrate efficacy, speeding the availability of effective vaccines. METHODS: Based on the outcomes from a failed trial of a maternal vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we simulated data for a new Bayesian group-sequential trial. We analyzed the data either ignoring data from the previous trial (i.e., weakly informative prior distributions) or using prior distributions incorporating the historical data into the analysis. We evaluated scenarios where efficacy in the new trial was the same, greater than, or less than that in the original trial. For each scenario, we evaluated the statistical power and type I error rate for estimating the vaccine effect following interim analyses. RESULTS: When we used a stringent threshold to control the type I error rate, analyses incorporating historical data had a small advantage over trials that did not. If control of type I error is less important (e.g., in a postlicensure evaluation), the incorporation of historical data can provide a substantial boost in efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the need to control the type I error rate in trials used to license a vaccine, incorporating historical data provides little additional benefit in terms of stopping the trial early. However, these statistical approaches could be promising in evaluations that use real-world evidence following licensure.

Potential Impact of Higher-Valency Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Among Adults in Different Localities in Germany.

Next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been approved for use. The serotype distribution of pneumococcal isolates can vary between regions. To understand the potential impacts of new PCVs, we evaluated trends in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among adults in Germany at a local level using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression. There was little spatial variation in IPD cases caused by PCV13 serotypes, which dropped from 60% of IPD cases in 2006 to 30% in 2018. Over half of IPD cases in 2018 were attributable to serotypes covered by new PCVs (PCV15, PCV20), which suggests they could further reduce the burden of IPD.

The full value of immunisation against respiratory syncytial virus for infants younger than 1 year: effects beyond prevention of acute respiratory illness.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of severe respiratory illness and death among children worldwide, particularly in children younger than 6 months and in low-income and middle-income countries. Feasible and cost-effective interventions to prevent RSV disease are not yet widely available, although two new products aimed at preventing RSV disease-long-acting monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccines-have been licensed within the past 2 years. The primary target of these products is reduction of the substantial burden of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in infants younger than 1 year. However, other important public health benefits might also accrue with the prevention of RSV-associated LRTI during the first year of life. Mounting evidence shows that preventing RSV-associated LRTI in infants younger than 1 year could prevent secondary pneumonia caused by other pathogens, reduce recurrent hospitalisations due to other respiratory diseases in later childhood, decrease all-cause infant mortality, ameliorate the burden of respiratory diseases on health-care systems, reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, and possibly improve lung health beyond infancy. We herein review current evidence and suggest approaches to better assess the magnitude of these potential secondary effects of RSV prevention, which, if proven substantial, are likely to be relevant to policy makers in many countries as they consider the use of these new products.

Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality. METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively. RESULTS: Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Year-Round Respiratory Syncytial Virus Transmission in The Netherlands Following the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Nationwide Observational and Modeling Study.

We initiated a nationwide prospective study to monitor respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related pediatric hospitalizations in 46 hospitals throughout the Netherlands between May 2021 and August 2022. We showed year-round RSV transmission in the Netherlands after an initial 2021 summer outbreak. The pattern was unprecedented and distinct from neighboring countries. We extended a dynamic simulation model to evaluate the impact of waning immunity on pediatric RSV hospitalizations in the Netherlands using 4 different scenarios. Our results suggest that the observed continuous RSV transmission pattern could be associated with waning immunity due to the period of very low RSV circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans.

Background: Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality. Methods: We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively. Results: Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46). Conclusions: Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Excess Mortality Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health System Compared With the Overall US Population During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a substantial increase in the rate of death in the United States. It is unclear whether those who had access to comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system had different death rates compared with the overall US population. Objective: To quantify and compare the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic between individuals who received comprehensive medical care through the VA health care system and those in the general US population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study compared 10.9 million enrollees in the VA, including 6.8 million active users of VA health care (those with a visit in the last 2 years), with the general population of the US, with deaths occurring from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted from May 17, 2021, to March 15, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared with previous years. Changes in all-cause death rates by quarter were stratified by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Multilevel regression models were fit in a bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations. Results: There were 10.9 million enrollees in the VA health care system and 6.8 million active users. The demographic characteristics of the VA populations were predominantly male (>85% in the VA health care system vs 49% in the general US population), older (mean [SD], 61.0 [18.2] years in the VA health care system vs 39.0 [23.1] years in the US population), and had a larger proportion of patients who were White (73% in the VA health care system vs 61% in the US population) or Black (17% in the VA health care system vs 13% in the US population). Increases in death rates were apparent across all of the adult age groups (≥25 years) in both the VA populations and the general US population. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates compared with expected values was similar for VA enrollees (risk ratio [RR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]), VA active users (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]), and the general US population (RR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]). Because the prepandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, a comparison of excess deaths between populations suggests that active users of the VA health system had similar relative increases in mortality compared with the general US population during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

High Levels of Detection of Nonpneumococcal Species of Streptococcus in Saliva from Adults in the United States.

While the sensitivity of detection of pneumococcal carriage can be improved by testing respiratory tract samples with quantitative PCR (qPCR), concerns have been raised regarding the specificity of this approach. We therefore investigated the reliability of the widely used lytA qPCR assay when applied to saliva samples from older adults in relation to a more specific qPCR assay (piaB). During the autumn/winter seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, saliva was collected at multiple time points from 103 healthy adults aged 21 to 39 (n = 34) and >64 (n = 69) years (n = 344 total samples). Following culture enrichment, extracted DNA was tested using qPCR for piaB and lytA. By sequencing the variable region of rpsB (S2 typing), we identified the species of bacteria isolated from samples testing lytA-positive only. While 30 of 344 (8.7%) saliva samples (16.5% individuals) tested qPCR-positive for both piaB and lytA, 52 (15.1%) samples tested lytA-positive only. No samples tested piaB-positive only. Through extensive reculture attempts of the lytA-positive samples collected in 2018/2019, we isolated 23 strains (in 8 samples from 5 individuals) that were also qPCR-positive for only lytA. Sequencing determined that Streptococcus mitis and Streptococcus infantis were predominantly responsible for this lytA-positive qPCR signal. We identified a comparatively large proportion of samples generating positive signals with the widely used lytA qPCR and identified nonpneumococcal Streptococcus species responsible for this signal. This highlights the importance of testing for the presence of multiple gene targets in tandem for reliable and specific detection of pneumococcus in polymicrobial respiratory tract samples. IMPORTANCE Testing saliva samples with quantitative PCR (qPCR) improves the sensitivity of detection of pneumococcal carriage. The qPCR assay targeting lytA, the gene encoding the major pneumococcal autolysin, has become widely accepted for the identification of pneumococcus and is even considered the "gold standard" by many. However, when applying this approach to investigate the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage in adults in New Haven, CT, USA, we identified nonpneumococcal Streptococcus spp. that generate positive signals in this widely used assay. By testing also for piaB (encoding the iron acquisition ABC transporter lipoprotein, PiaB), our findings demonstrate the importance of testing for the presence of multiple gene targets in tandem for reliable molecular detection of pneumococcus in respiratory tract samples; targeting only lytA may lead to an overestimation of true carriage rates.

Incorporating efficacy data from initial trials into subsequent evaluations: Application to vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus.

Background: When a randomized controlled trial fails to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy against the primary endpoint, a potentially costly new trial would need to be conducted to receive licensure. Incorporating data from previous trials might allow for the conduct of more efficient follow-up trials to demonstrate efficacy, speeding the availability of effective vaccines. Methods: Based on the outcomes from a failed trial of a maternal vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we simulated data for a new Bayesian group-sequential trial. The data were analyzed either ignoring data from the previous trial (i.e., weakly informative prior distributions) or using prior distributions that incorporate the historical data into the analysis. We evaluated scenarios where the efficacy in the new trial was the same, greater than, or less than the efficacy in the original trial. For each scenario, we evaluated the statistical power and type I error rate for estimating the vaccine effect following interim analyses. Results: If a stringent threshold is used to control the type I error rate, the analyses that incorporated historical data had a small advantage over trials that did not. If control of type I error is less important (e.g., in a post-licensure evaluation), the incorporation of historical data can provide a substantial boost in efficiency. Conclusions: Due to the need to control the type I error rate in trials used to license a vaccine, the incorporation of historical data provides little additional benefit in terms of stopping the trial early. However, these statistical approaches could be promising in evaluations that use real-world evidence following licensure.

Persistence of Pneumococcal Carriage among Older Adults in the Community despite COVID-19 Mitigation Measures.

Reported rates of invasive pneumococcal disease were markedly lower than normal during the 2020/2021 winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the first year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known about rates of carriage of pneumococcus among adults during this period. Between October 2020-August 2021, couples in the Greater New Haven Area, USA, were enrolled if both individuals were aged 60 years and above and did not have any individuals under the age of 60 years living in the household. Saliva samples and questionnaires regarding social activities and contacts and medical history were obtained every 2 weeks for a period of 10 weeks. Following culture-enrichment, extracted DNA was tested using qPCR for pneumococcus-specific sequences piaB and lytA. Individuals were considered positive for pneumococcal carriage when Ct values for piaB were ≤40. Results. We collected 567 saliva samples from 95 individuals (47 household pairs and 1 singleton). Of those, 7.1% of samples tested positive for pneumococcus, representing 22/95 (23.2%) individuals and 16/48 (33.3%) households. Study participants attended few social events during this period. However, many participants continued to have regular contact with children. Individuals who had regular contact with preschool and school-aged children (i.e., 2 to 9 year olds) had a higher prevalence of carriage (15.9% versus 5.4%). Despite COVID-19-related disruptions, a large proportion of older adults continued to carry pneumococcus. Prevalence was particularly high among those who had contact with school-aged children, but carriage was not limited to this group. IMPORTANCE Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the upper respiratory tract is considered a prerequisite to invasive pneumococcal disease. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, markedly lower rates of invasive pneumococcal disease were reported worldwide. Despite this, by testing saliva samples with PCR, we found that older adults continued to carry pneumococcus at pre-pandemic levels. Importantly, this study was conducted during a period when transmission mitigation measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic were in place. However, our observations are in line with reports from Israel and Belgium where carriage was also found to persist in children. In line with this, we observed that carriage prevalence was particularly high among the older adults in our study who maintained contact with school-aged children.

The COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity for unravelling the causative association between respiratory viruses and pneumococcus-associated disease in young children: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: In young children, rates of lower respiratory infections (LRI) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have been associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), influenza (flu), and parainfluenza (PIV) (collectively termed here as pneumonia and pneumococcal disease-associated viruses [PDA-viruses]). However, their contribution to the pathogenesis of these disease endpoints has not yet been elucidated. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to examine the question. METHODS: This prospective study comprised all children <5 years, living in southern Israel, during 2016 through 2021. The data were previously collected in multiple ongoing prospective surveillance programs and include: hospital visits for community-acquired alveolar pneumonia (CAAP), non-CAAP LRI; nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage (<3 years of age); respiratory virus activity; and nationwide, all-ages COVID-19 episodes and IPD in children <5 years. A hierarchical statistical model was developed to estimate the proportion of the different clinical endpoints attributable to each virus from monthly time series data, stratified by age and ethnicity. A separate model was fit for each endpoint, with covariates that included a linear time trend, 12-month harmonic variables to capture unexplained seasonal variations, and the proportion of tests positive for each virus in that month. FINDINGS: During 2016 through 2021, 3,204, 26,695, 257, and 619 episodes of CAAP, non-CAAP LRI, pneumococcal bacteremic pneumonia and non-pneumonia IPD, respectively, were reported. Compared to 2016-2019, broad declines in the disease endpoints were observed shortly after the pandemic surge, coincident with a complete disappearance of all PDA-viruses and continued circulation of rhinovirus (RhV) and adenovirus (AdV). From April 2021, off-season and abrupt surges of all disease endpoints occurred, associated with similar dynamics among the PDA-viruses, which re-emerged sequentially. Using our model fit to the entire 2016-2021 period, 82% (95% CI, 75-88%) of CAAP episodes in 2021 were attributable to the common respiratory viruses, as were 22%-31% of the other disease endpoints. Virus-specific contributions to CAAP were: RSV, 49% (95% CI, 43-55%); hMPV, 13% (10-17%); PIV, 11% (7-15%); flu, 7% (1-13%). RhV and AdV did not contribute. RSV was the main contributor in all endpoints, especially in infants. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence remained largely stable throughout the study. INTERPRETATION: RSV and hMPV play a critical role in the burden of CAAP and pneumococcal disease in children. Interventions targeting these viruses could have a secondary effect on the burden of disease typically attributed to bacteria. FUNDING: There was no funding for this study.

Magnetic bead-based separation of pneumococcal serotypes.

The separation of pneumococcal serotypes from a complex polymicrobial mixture may be required for different applications. For instance, a minority strain could be present at a low frequency in a clinical sample, making it difficult to identify and isolate by traditional culture-based methods. We therefore developed an assay to separate mixed pneumococcal samples using serotype-specific antiserum and a magnetic bead-based separation method. Using qPCR and colony counting methods, we first show that serotypes (12F, 23F, 3, 14, 19A, and 15A) present at ∼0.1% of a dual serotype mixture can be enriched to between 10% and 90% of the final sample. We demonstrate two applications for this method: extraction of known pneumococcal serotypes from saliva samples and efficient purification of capsule switch variants from experimental transformation experiments. This method may have further laboratory or clinical applications when the selection of specific serotypes is required.

Incorporating data from multiple endpoints in the analysis of clinical trials: example from RSV vaccines.

Background: To achieve licensure, interventions typically must demonstrate efficacy against a primary outcome in a randomized clinical trial. However, selecting a single primary outcome a priori is challenging. Incorporating data from multiple and related outcomes might help to increase statistical power in clinical trials. Inspired by real-world clinical trials of interventions against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we examined methods for analyzing data on multiple endpoints. Method: We simulated data from three different populations in which the efficacy of the intervention and the correlation among outcomes varied. We developed a novel permutation-based approach that represents a weighted average of individual outcome test statistics ( varP ) to evaluate intervention efficacy in a multiple endpoint analysis. We compared the power and type I error rate of this approach to two alternative methods: the Bonferroni correction ( bonfT ) and another permutation-based approach that uses the minimum P-value across all test statistics ( minP ). Results: When the vaccine efficacy against different outcomes was similar, VarP yielded higher power than bonfT and minP; in some scenarios the improvement in power was substantial. In settings where vaccine efficacy was notably larger against one endpoint compared to the others, all three methods had similar power. Conclusions: Analyzing multiple endpoints using a weighted permutation method can increase power while controlling the type I error rate in settings where outcomes share similar characteristics, like RSV outcomes. We developed an R package, PERMEATE , to guide selection of the most appropriate method for analyzing multiple endpoints in clinical trials.

Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022.

Excess mortality studies provide crucial information regarding the health burden of pandemics and other large-scale events. Here, we use time series approaches to separate the direct contribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection on mortality from the indirect consequences of the pandemic in the United States. We estimate excess deaths occurring above a seasonal baseline from March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022, stratified by week, state, age, and underlying mortality condition (including COVID-19 and respiratory diseases; Alzheimer's disease; cancer; cerebrovascular diseases; diabetes; heart diseases; and external causes, which include suicides, opioid overdoses, and accidents). Over the study period, we estimate an excess of 1,065,200 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 909,800-1,218,000) all-cause deaths, of which 80% are reflected in official COVID-19 statistics. State-specific excess death estimates are highly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 serology, lending support to our approach. Mortality from 7 of the 8 studied conditions rose during the pandemic, with the exception of cancer. To separate the direct mortality consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection from the indirect effects of the pandemic, we fit generalized additive models (GAM) to age- state- and cause-specific weekly excess mortality, using covariates representing direct (COVID-19 intensity) and indirect pandemic effects (hospital intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and measures of interventions stringency). We find that 84% (95% CI 65-94%) of all-cause excess mortality can be statistically attributed to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also estimate a large direct contribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection (≥67%) on mortality from diabetes, Alzheimer's, heart diseases, and in all-cause mortality among individuals over 65 years. In contrast, indirect effects predominate in mortality from external causes and all-cause mortality among individuals under 44 years, with periods of stricter interventions associated with greater rises in mortality. Overall, on a national scale, the largest consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are attributable to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections; yet, the secondary impacts dominate among younger age groups and in mortality from external causes. Further research on the drivers of indirect mortality is warranted as more detailed mortality data from this pandemic becomes available.

Waning Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine Against Infection in Adolescents in Israel.

BACKGROUND: The short-term effectiveness of a 2-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine for adolescents has been demonstrated. However, little is known about the long-term effectiveness in this age group. It is known, however, that waning of vaccine-induced immunity against infection in adult populations is evident within a few months. METHODS: Leveraging the database of Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), we conducted a matched case-control design for evaluating the association between time since vaccination and the incidence of infections, where 2 outcomes were evaluated: documented SARS-CoV-2 infection (regardless of symptoms) and symptomatic infection (COVID-19). Cases were defined as individuals aged 12-16 with a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test occurring between 15 June and 8 December 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant in Israel. Controls were adolescents who had not tested positive previously. RESULTS: We estimated a peak vaccine effectiveness between 2 weeks and 3 months following receipt of the second dose, with 85% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 84-86%) and 90% (95% CI: 89-91%) effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), respectively. However, in line with findings for adults, waning effectiveness was evident. Long-term protection was reduced to 73% (95% CI: 68-77%) against infection and 79% (95% CI: 73-83%) against COVID-19 3-5 months after the second dose and waned to 53% (95% CI: 46-60%) against infection and 66% (95% CI: 59-72%) against COVID-19 after 5 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although vaccine-induced protection against both infection and COVID-19 continues over time in adolescents, the protection wanes with time since vaccination, starting 3 months after inoculation and continuing for more than 5 months.

Impact of Temporary Storage Conditions on the Viability of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Saliva.

Nasopharyngeal swabs are considered the gold-standard sample type for the detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage, but recent studies have demonstrated the utility of saliva in improving the detection of carriage in adults. Saliva is generally collected in its raw, unsupplemented state, unlike nasopharyngeal swabs, which are collected into stabilizing transport media. Few data exist regarding the stability of pneumococci in unsupplemented saliva during transport and laboratory storage. We therefore evaluated the effect of storage conditions on the detection of pneumococci in saliva samples using strains representing eight pneumococcal serotypes. The bacteria were spiked into raw saliva from asymptomatic individuals, and we assessed sample viability after storage at 4°C, room temperature, and 30°C for up to 72 h; at 40°C for 24 h; and following three freeze-thaw cycles. We observed little decrease in pneumococcal detection following culture enrichment and quantitative PCR (qPCR) detection of the piaB and lytA genes compared to testing fresh samples, indicating the prolonged viability of pneumococci in neat saliva samples. This sample stability makes saliva a viable sample type for pneumococcal carriage studies conducted in remote or low-resource settings and provides insight into the effect of the storage of saliva samples in the laboratory. IMPORTANCE For pneumococcal carriage studies, saliva is a sample type that can overcome some of the issues typically seen with nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Understanding the limitations of saliva as a sample type is important for maximizing its use. This study sought to better understand how different storage conditions and freeze-thaw cycles affect pneumococcal survival over time. These findings support the use of saliva as an alternative sample type for pneumococcal carriage studies, particularly in remote or low-resource settings with reduced access to health care facilities.