Fine-scale maps of malaria incidence to inform risk stratification in Laos.

BACKGROUND: Malaria risk maps are crucial for controlling and eliminating malaria by identifying areas of varying transmission risk. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, these maps guide interventions and resource allocation. This article focuses on analysing changes in malaria transmission and developing fine-scale risk maps using five years of routine surveillance data in Laos (2017-2021). The study employed data from 1160 geolocated health facilities in Laos, along with high-resolution environmental data. METHODS: A Bayesian geostatistical framework incorporating population data and treatment-seeking propensity was developed. The models incorporated static and dynamic factors and accounted for spatial heterogeneity. RESULTS: Results showed a significant decline in malaria cases in Laos over the five-year period and a shift in transmission patterns. While the north became malaria-free, the south experienced ongoing transmission with sporadic outbreaks. CONCLUSION: The risk maps provided insights into changing transmission patterns and supported risk stratification. These risk maps are valuable tools for malaria control in Laos, aiding resource allocation, identifying intervention gaps, and raising public awareness. The study enhances understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and facilitates evidence-based decision-making for targeted interventions in high-risk areas.

International Society for Cell and Gene Therapy Clinical Translation Committee recommendations on mesenchymal stromal cells in graft-versus-host disease: easy manufacturing is faced with standardizing and commercialization challenges.

Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) have been used in multiple clinical trials for steroid-refractory moderate-severe (grade II-IV) acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) across the world over the last two decades. Despite very promising results in a variety of trials, it failed to get widespread approval by regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. What lessons can we learn from this for future studies on MSCs and other cell therapy products? Broad heterogeneity among published trials using MSCs in aGVHD was likely the core problem. We propose a standardized approach in regards to donor-related factors, MSCs-related characteristics, as well as clinical trial design, to limit heterogeneity in trials for aGVHD and to fulfill the requirements of regulatory agencies. This approach may be expanded beyond MSCs to other Cell and Gene therapy products and trials in other diseases.

Stem Cells, Cell Therapies and Bioengineering in Lung Biology and Diseases 2023.

Repair and regeneration of a diseased lung using stem cells or bioengineered tissues is an exciting therapeutic approach for a variety of lung diseases and critical illnesses. Over the past decade increasing evidence from preclinical models suggests that cells, which are not normally resident in the lung can be utilized to modulate immune responses after injury, but there have been challenges in translating these promising findings to the clinic. In parallel, there has been a surge in bioengineering studies investigating the use of artificial and acellular lung matrices as scaffolds for three-dimensional lung or airway regeneration, with some recent attempts of transplantation in large animal models. The combination of these studies with those involving stem cells, induced pluripotent stem cell derivatives, and/or cell therapies is a promising and rapidly developing research area. These studies have been further paralleled by significant increases in our understanding of the molecular and cellular events by which endogenous lung stem and/or progenitor cells arise during lung development and participate in normal and pathologic remodeling after lung injury. For the 2023 Stem Cells, Cell Therapies, and Bioengineering in Lung Biology and Diseases Conference, scientific symposia were chosen to reflect the most cutting-edge advances in these fields. Sessions focused on the integration of "-omics" technologies with function, the influence of immune cells on regeneration, and the role of the extracellular matrix in regeneration. The necessity for basic science studies to enhance fundamental understanding of lung regeneration and to design innovative translational studies was reinforced throughout the conference.

Mesenchymal stromal cells dampen trained immunity in house dust mite-primed macrophages expressing human macrophage migration inhibitory factor polymorphism.

BACKGROUND: Trained immunity results in long-term immunological memory, provoking a faster and greater immune response when innate immune cells encounter a secondary, often heterologous, stimulus. We have previously shown that house dust mite (HDM)-induced innate training is amplified in mice expressing the human macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) CATT7 functional polymorphism. AIM: This study investigated the ability of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) to modulate MIF-driven trained immunity both in vitro and in vivo. METHODS: Compared with wild-type mice, in vivo HDM-primed bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) from CATT7 mice expressed significantly higher levels of M1-associated genes following lipopolysaccharide stimulation ex vivo. Co-cultures of CATT7 BMDMs with MSCs suppressed this HDM-primed effect, with tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) being significantly decreased in a cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2)-dependent manner. Interestingly, interleukin 6 (IL-6) was suppressed by MSCs independently of COX-2. In an in vitro training assay, MSCs significantly abrogated the enhanced production of pro-inflammatory cytokines by HDM-trained CATT7 BMDMs when co-cultured at the time of HDM stimulus on day 0, displaying their therapeutic efficacy in modulating an overzealous human MIF-dependent immune response. Utilizing an in vivo model of HDM-induced trained immunity, MSCs administered systemically on day 10 and day 11 suppressed this trained phenomenon by significantly reducing TNF-α and reducing IL-6 and C-C motif chemokine ligand 17 (CCL17) production. CONCLUSIONS: This novel study elucidates how MSCs can attenuate an MIF-driven, HDM-trained response in CATT7 mice in a model of allergic airway inflammation.

Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue.

Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Identification of tyrosine brominated extracellular matrix proteins in normal and fibrotic lung tissues.

Peroxidasin (PXDN) is a secreted heme peroxidase that catalyzes the oxidative crosslinking of collagen IV within the extracellular matrix (ECM) via intermediate hypobromous acid (HOBr) synthesis from hydrogen peroxide and bromide, but recent findings have also suggested alternative ECM protein modifications by PXDN, including incorporation of bromide into tyrosine residues. In this work, we sought to identify the major target proteins for tyrosine bromination by HOBr or by PXDN-mediated oxidation in ECM from mouse teratocarcinoma PFHR9 cells. We detected 61 bromotyrosine (BrY)-containing peptides representing 23 proteins in HOBr-modified ECM from PFHR9 cells, among which laminins displayed the most prominent bromotyrosine incorporation. Moreover, we also found that laminin α1, laminin ß1, and tubulointerstitial nephritis antigen-like (TINAGL1) contained BrY in untreated PFHR9 cells, which depended on PXDN. We extended these analyses to lung tissues from both healthy mice and mice with experimental lung fibrosis, and in lung tissues obtained from human subjects. Analysis of ECM-enriched mouse lung tissue extracts showed that 83 ECM proteins were elevated in bleomycin-induced fibrosis, which included various collagens and laminins, and PXDN. Similarly, mRNA and protein expression of PXDN and laminin α/ß1 were enhanced in fibrotic mouse lung tissues, and also in mouse bone-marrow-derived macrophages or human fibroblasts stimulated with transforming growth factor ß1, a profibrotic growth factor. We identified 11 BrY-containing ECM proteins, including collagen IV α2, collagen VI α1, TINAGL1, and various laminins, in both healthy and mouse fibrotic lung tissues, although the relative extent of tyrosine bromination of laminins was not significantly increased during fibrosis. Finally, we also identified 7 BrY-containing ECM proteins in human lung tissues, again including collagen IV α2, collagen VI α1, and TINAGL1. Altogether, this work demonstrates the presence of several bromotyrosine-modified ECM proteins, likely involving PXDN, even in normal lung tissues, suggesting a potential biological function for these modifications.

Extracellular Matrix as a Driver of Chronic Lung Diseases.

The extracellular matrix (ECM) is not just a three-dimensional scaffold that provides stable support for all cells in the lungs, but also an important component of chronic fibrotic airway, vascular, and interstitial diseases. It is a bioactive entity that is dynamically modulated during tissue homeostasis and disease, that controls structural and immune cell functions and drug responses, and that can release fragments that have biological activity and that can be used to monitor disease activity. There is a growing recognition of the importance of considering ECM changes in chronic airway, vascular, and interstitial diseases, including 1) compositional changes, 2) structural and organizational changes, and 3) mechanical changes and how these affect disease pathogenesis. As altered ECM biology is an important component of many lung diseases, disease models must incorporate this factor to fully recapitulate disease-driver pathways and to study potential novel therapeutic interventions. Although novel models are evolving that capture some or all of the elements of the altered ECM microenvironment in lung diseases, opportunities exist to more fully understand cell-ECM interactions that will help devise future therapeutic targets to restore function in chronic lung diseases. In this perspective article, we review evolving knowledge about the ECM's role in homeostasis and disease in the lung.

Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Environmental Factors May Inform Malaria Intervention Prioritization in Urban Nigeria.

Urban population growth in Nigeria may exceed the availability of affordable housing and basic services, resulting in living conditions conducive to vector breeding and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Understanding the link between community-level factors and urban malaria transmission informs targeted interventions. We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey Program cluster-level data, alongside geospatial covariates, to describe variations in malaria prevalence in children under 5 years of age. Univariate and multivariable models explored the relationship between malaria test positivity rates at the cluster level and community-level factors. Generally, malaria test positivity rates in urban areas are low and declining. The factors that best predicted malaria test positivity rates within a multivariable model were post-primary education, wealth quintiles, population density, access to improved housing, child fever treatment-seeking, precipitation, and enhanced vegetation index. Malaria transmission in urban areas will likely be reduced by addressing socioeconomic and environmental factors that promote exposure to disease vectors. Enhanced regional surveillance systems in Nigeria can provide detailed data to further refine our understanding of these factors in relation to malaria transmission.

Revealed versus potential spatial accessibility of healthcare and changing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Timely access to healthcare is essential but measuring access is challenging. Prior research focused on analyzing potential travel times to healthcare under optimal mobility scenarios that do not incorporate direct observations of human mobility, potentially underestimating the barriers to receiving care for many populations. METHODS: We introduce an approach for measuring accessibility by utilizing travel times to healthcare facilities from aggregated and anonymized smartphone Location History data. We measure these revealed travel times to healthcare facilities in over 100 countries and juxtapose our findings with potential (optimal) travel times estimated using Google Maps directions. We then quantify changes in revealed accessibility associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that revealed travel time differs substantially from potential travel time; in all but 4 countries this difference exceeds 30 minutes, and in 49 countries it exceeds 60 minutes. Substantial variation in revealed healthcare accessibility is observed and correlates with life expectancy (⍴=-0.70) and infant mortality (⍴=0.59), with this association remaining significant after adjusting for potential accessibility and wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic altered the patterns of healthcare access, especially for populations dependent on public transportation. CONCLUSIONS: Our metrics based on empirical data indicate that revealed travel times exceed potential travel times in many regions. During COVID-19, inequitable accessibility was exacerbated. In conjunction with other relevant data, these findings provide a resource to help public health policymakers identify underserved populations and promote health equity by formulating policies and directing resources towards areas and populations most in need.

Spatial access to healthcare facilities (i.e., how long people need to travel to reach care) is important for understanding public health, but hard to measure. Most research so far has focused on theoretical (potential) travel times. Using anonymized smartphone location history data, we measure actual (revealed) travel times to healthcare facilities in over 100 countries. We find that revealed travel times exceed theoretical travel times in many regions of the world, meaning that in reality people travel longer to get healthcare. Our data also show that inequities in travel time became worse during the COVID-19 pandemic. When combined with other data, these results can help policymakers identify areas and populations at need, and direct resources to improve public health.

Dissection and Isolation of Region-Specific Decellularized Lung Tissue.

Lung transplantation is often the only option for patients in the later stages of severe lung disease, but this is limited both due to the supply of suitable donor lungs and both acute and chronic rejection after transplantation. Ascertaining novel bioengineering approaches for the replacement of diseased lungs is imperative for improving patient survival and avoiding complications associated with current transplantation methodologies. An alternative approach involves the use of decellularized whole lungs lacking cellular constituents that are typically the cause of acute and chronic rejection. Since the lung is such a complex organ, it is of interest to examine the extracellular matrix components of specific regions, including the vasculature, airways, and alveolar tissue. The purpose of this approach is to establish simple and reproducible methods by which researchers may dissect and isolate region-specific tissue from fully decellularized lungs. The current protocol has been devised for pig and human lungs, but may be applied to other species as well. For this protocol, four regions of the tissue were specified: airway, vasculature, alveoli, and bulk lung tissue. This procedure allows for the procurement of samples of tissue that more accurately represent the contents of the decellularized lung tissue as opposed to traditional bulk analysis methods.

Human macrophage migration inhibitory factor potentiates mesenchymal stromal cell efficacy in a clinically relevant model of allergic asthma.

Current asthma therapies focus on reducing symptoms but fail to restore existing structural damage. Mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) administration can ameliorate airway inflammation and reverse airway remodeling. However, differences in patient disease microenvironments seem to influence MSC therapeutic effects. A polymorphic CATT tetranucleotide repeat at position 794 of the human macrophage migration inhibitory factor (hMIF) gene has been associated with increased susceptibility to and severity of asthma. We investigated the efficacy of human MSCs in high- vs. low-hMIF environments and the impact of MIF pre-licensing of MSCs using humanized MIF mice in a clinically relevant house dust mite (HDM) model of allergic asthma. MSCs significantly attenuated airway inflammation and airway remodeling in high-MIF-expressing CATT7 mice but not in CATT5 or wild-type littermates. Differences in efficacy were correlated with increased MSC retention in the lungs of CATT7 mice. MIF licensing potentiated MSC anti-inflammatory effects at a previously ineffective dose. Mechanistically, MIF binding to CD74 expressed on MSCs leads to upregulation of cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) expression. Blockade of CD74 or COX-2 function in MSCs prior to administration attenuated the efficacy of MIF-licensed MSCs in vivo. These findings suggest that MSC administration may be more efficacious in severe asthma patients with high MIF genotypes (CATT6/7/8).

Trends in treatment-seeking for fever in children under five years old in 151 countries from 1990 to 2020.

Access to medical treatment for fever is essential to prevent morbidity and mortality in individuals and to prevent transmission of communicable febrile illness in communities. Quantification of the rates at which treatment is accessed is critical for health system planning and a prerequisite for disease burden estimates. In this study, national data on the proportion of children under five years old with fever who were taken for medical treatment were collected from all available countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia (n = 91). We used generalised additive mixed models to estimate 30-year trends in the treatment-seeking rates across the majority of countries in these regions (n = 151). Our results show that the proportions of febrile children brought for medical treatment increased steadily over the last 30 years, with the greatest increases occurring in areas where rates had originally been lowest, which includes Latin America and Caribbean, North Africa and the Middle East (51 and 50% increase, respectively), and Sub-Saharan Africa (23% increase). Overall, the aggregated and population-weighted estimate of children with fever taken for treatment at any type of facility rose from 61% (59-64 95% CI) in 1990 to 71% (69-72 95% CI) in 2020. The overall population-weighted average for fraction of treatment in the public sector was largely unchanged during the study period: 49% (42-58 95% CI) sought care at public facilities in 1990 and 47% (44-52 95% CI) in 2020. Overall, the findings indicate that improvements in access to care have been made where they were most needed, but that despite rapid initial gains, progress can plateau without substantial investment. In 2020 there remained significant gaps in care utilisation that must be factored in when developing control strategies and deriving disease burden estimates.

International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy Position Paper: Key considerations to support evidence-based cell and gene therapies and oppose marketing of unproven products.

The field of regenerative medicine, including cellular immunotherapies, is on a remarkable growth trajectory. Dozens of cell-, tissue- and gene-based products have received marketing authorization worldwide while hundreds-to-thousands are either in preclinical development or under clinical investigation in phased clinical trials. However, the promise of regenerative therapies has also given rise to a global industry of direct-to-consumer offerings of prematurely commercialized cell and cell-based products with unknown safety and efficacy profiles. Since its inception, the International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy Committee on the Ethics of Cell and Gene Therapy has opposed the premature commercialization of unproven cell- and gene-based interventions and supported the development of evidence-based advanced therapy products. In the present Guide, targeted at International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy members, we analyze this industry, focusing in particular on distinctive features of unproven cell and cell-based products and the use of tokens of scientific legitimacy as persuasive marketing devices. We also provide an overview of reporting mechanisms for patients who believe they have been harmed by administration of unapproved and unproven products and suggest practical strategies to address the direct-to-consumer marketing of such products. Development of this Guide epitomizes our continued support for the ethical and rigorous development of cell and cell-based products with patient safety and therapeutic benefit as guiding principles.

Human alveolar hydrogels promote morphological and transcriptional differentiation in iPSC-derived alveolar type 2 epithelial cells.

Alveolar type 2 epithelial cells (AT2s) derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (iAT2s) have rapidly contributed to our understanding of AT2 function and disease. However, while iAT2s are primarily cultured in three-dimensional (3D) Matrigel, a matrix derived from cancerous mouse tissue, it is unclear how a physiologically relevant matrix will impact iAT2s phenotype. As extracellular matrix (ECM) is recognized as a vital component in directing cellular function and differentiation, we sought to derive hydrogels from decellularized human lung alveolar-enriched ECM (aECM) to provide an ex vivo model to characterize the role of physiologically relevant ECM on iAT2 phenotype. We demonstrate aECM hydrogels retain critical in situ ECM components, including structural and basement membrane proteins. While aECM hydrogels facilitate iAT2 proliferation and alveolosphere formation, a subset of iAT2s rapidly change morphology to thin and elongated ring-like cells. This morphological change correlates with upregulation of recently described iAT2-derived transitional cell state genetic markers. As such, we demonstrate a potentially underappreciated role of physiologically relevant aECM in iAT2 differentiation.

Impacts on Human Movement in Australian Cities Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

No studies have yet examined high-resolution shifts in the spatial patterns of human movement in Australia throughout 2020 and 2021, a period coincident with the repeated enactment and removal of varied governmental restrictions aimed at reducing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We compared overlapping timeseries of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions, epidemiological data on cases and vaccination rates, and high-resolution human movement data to characterize population-level responses to the pandemic in Australian cities. We found that restrictions on human movement and/or mandatory business closures reduced the average population-level weekly movement volumes in cities, as measured by aggregated travel time, by almost half. Of the movements that continued to occur, long movements reduced more dramatically than short movements, likely indicating that people stayed closer to home. We also found that the repeated lockdowns did not reduce their impact on human movement, but the effect of the restrictions on human movement waned as the duration of restrictions increased. Lastly, we found that after restrictions ceased, the subsequent surge in SARS-CoV-2 transmission coincided with a substantial, non-mandated drop in human movement volume. These findings have implications for public health policy makers when faced with anticipating responses to restrictions during future emergency situations.

Regional and disease-specific glycosaminoglycan composition and function in decellularized human lung extracellular matrix.

Decellularized lung scaffolds and hydrogels are increasingly being utilized in ex vivo lung bioengineering. However, the lung is a regionally heterogenous organ with proximal and distal airway and vascular compartments of different structures and functions that may be altered as part of disease pathogenesis. We previously described decellularized normal whole human lung extracellular matrix (ECM) glycosaminoglycan (GAG) composition and functional ability to bind matrix-associated growth factors. We now determine differential GAG composition and function in airway, vascular, and alveolar-enriched regions of decellularized lungs obtained from normal, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients. Significant differences were observed in heparan sulfate (HS), chondroitin sulfate (CS), and hyaluronic acid (HA) content and CS/HS compositions between both different lung regions and between normal and diseased lungs. Surface plasmon resonance demonstrated that HS and CS from decellularized normal and COPD lungs similarly bound fibroblast growth factor 2, but that binding was decreased in decellularized IPF lungs. Binding of transforming growth factor ß to CS was similar in all three groups but binding to HS was decreased in IPF compared to normal and COPD lungs. In addition, cytokines dissociate faster from the IPF GAGs than their counterparts. The differences in cytokine binding features of IPF GAGs may result from different disaccharide compositions. The purified HS from IPF lung is less sulfated than that from other lungs, and the CS from IPF contains more 6-O-sulfated disaccharide. These observations provide further information for understanding functional roles of ECM GAGs in lung function and disease. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Lung transplantation remains limited due to donor organ availability and need for life-long immunosuppressive medication. One solution, the ex vivo bioengineering of lungs via de- and recellularization has not yet led to a fully functional organ. Notably, the role of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) remaining in decellularized lung scaffolds is poorly understood despite their important effects on cell behaviors. We have previously investigated residual GAG content of native and decellularized lungs and their respective functionality, and role during scaffold recellularization. We now present a detailed characterization of GAG and GAG chain content and function in different anatomical regions of normal diseased human lungs. These are novel and important observations that further expand knowledge about functional GAG roles in lung biology and disease.

An Introduction to Engineering and Modeling the Lung.

Over the last decade, the field of lung biology has evolved considerably due to many advancements, including the advent of single-cell RNA (scRNA) sequencing, induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) reprogramming, and 3D cell and tissue culture. Despite rigorous research and tireless efforts, chronic pulmonary diseases remain the third leading cause of death globally, with transplantation being the only option for treating end-stage disease. This chapter will introduce the broader impacts of understanding lung biology in health and disease, provide an overview of lung physiology and pathophysiology, and summarize the key takeaways from each chapter describing engineering translational models of lung homeostasis and disease. This book is divided into broad topic areas containing chapters covering basic biology, engineering approaches, and clinical perspectives related to (1) the developing lung, (2) the large airways, (3) the mesenchyme and parenchyma, (4) the pulmonary vasculature, and (5) the interface between lungs and medical devices. Each section highlights the underlying premise that engineering strategies, when applied in collaboration with cell biologists and pulmonary physicians, will address critical challenges in pulmonary health care.

An International Society for Cell and Gene Therapy Mesenchymal Stromal Cells (MSC) Committee perspectives on International Standards Organization/Technical Committee 276 Biobanking Standards for bone marrow-MSCs and umbilical cord tissue-derived MSCs for research purposes.

The rapidly growing field of mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) basic and translational research requires standardization of terminology and functional characterization. The International Standards Organization's (ISO) Technical Committee (TC) on Biotechnology, working with extensive input from the International Society for Cells and Gene Therapy (ISCT), has recently published ISO standardization documents that are focused on biobanking of MSCs from two tissue sources, Wharton's Jelly, MSC(WJ) and Bone Marrow, MSC(M)), for research and development purposes and development. This manuscript explains the path towards the consensus on the following two documents: the Technical Standard ISO/TS 22859 for MSC(WJ) and the full ISO Standard 24651 for MSC(M) biobanking. The ISO standardization documents are aligned with ISCT's MSC committee position and recommendations on nomenclature because there was active input and incorporation of ISCT MSC committee recommendations in the development of these standards. The ISO standardization documents contain both requirements and recommendations for functional characterization of MSC(WJ) and MSC(M) using a matrix of assays. Importantly, the ISO standardization documents have a carefully defined scope and are meant for research use of culture expanded MSC(WJ) and MSC(M). The ISO standardization documents can be updated in a revision process and will be systematically reviewed after 3-5 years as scientific insights grow. They represent international consensus on MSC identity, definition, and characterization; are rigorous in detailing multivariate characterization of MSCs and represent an evolving-but-important first step in standardization of MSC biobanking and characterization for research use and development.

Mapping tuberculosis prevalence in Ethiopia using geospatial meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) with sub-national estimates are scarce in Ethiopia. We address this knowledge gap by spatially predicting the national, sub-national and local prevalence of TB, and identifying drivers of TB prevalence across the country. METHODS: TB prevalence data were obtained from the Ethiopia national TB prevalence survey and from a comprehensive review of published reports. Geospatial covariates were obtained from publicly available sources. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate a pooled prevalence of TB at the national level, and model-based geostatistics were used to estimate the spatial variation of TB prevalence at sub-national and local levels. Within the MBG Plugin Framework, a logistic regression model was fitted to TB prevalence data using both fixed covariate effects and spatial random effects to identify drivers of TB and to predict the prevalence of TB. RESULTS: The overall pooled prevalence of TB in Ethiopia was 0.19% [95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.12%-0.28%]. There was a high degree of heterogeneity in the prevalence of TB (I2 96.4%, P <0.001), which varied by geographical locations, data collection periods and diagnostic methods. The highest prevalence of TB was observed in Dire Dawa (0.96%), Gambela (0.88%), Somali (0.42%), Addis Ababa (0.28%) and Afar (0.24%) regions. Nationally, there was a decline in TB prevalence from 0.18% in 2001 to 0.04% in 2009. However, prevalence increased back to 0.29% in 2014. Substantial spatial variation of TB prevalence was observed at a regional level, with a higher prevalence observed in the border regions, and at a local level within regions. The spatial distribution of TB prevalence was positively associated with population density. CONCLUSION: The results of this study showed that TB prevalence varied substantially at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia. Spatial patterns were associated with population density. These results suggest that targeted interventions in high-risk areas may reduce the burden of TB in Ethiopia and additional data collection would be required to make further inferences on TB prevalence in areas that lack data.