The spatial variations and driving factors of C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics of plant and soil in the terrestrial ecosystem.

Carbon(C), nitrogen(N), and phosphorus(P) are crucial elements in the element cycling in the terrestrial ecosystems. In the past decades, the spatial pattern and driving mechanism of plant and soil ecological stoichiometry have been hot topics in ecological geography. So far, many studies at different spatial and ecological scales have been conducted, but systematic review has not been reported to summarize the research status. In this paper, we tried to fill this gap by reviewing both the spatial variations and driving factors of C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics of plant and soil at regional to large scale. Additionally, we synthesized researches on the relationships between plant and soil C, N and P stoichiometric characteristics. At the global scale, plant C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics exhibited some trends along latitude and temperature gradient. Plant taxonomic classification was the main factor controlling the spatial variations of plant C, N and P stoichiometric characteristics. Climate factor and soil properties showed varying impacts on the spatial variations of plant C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics across different spatial scales. Soil C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics also vary along climate gradient at large scale. Their spatial variations result from the combined effects of climate, topography, soil properties, and vegetation characteristics at regional scale. The spatial pattern of soil C, N, P stoichiometric characteristics and the driving effects from environmental factors could be notably different among different ecosystems and vegetation types. Plant C:N:P is obviously higher than that of soil, and there exists a positive correlation between plant and soil C:N:P. Their trends along longitude and latitude are similar, but this correlation varies significantly among different vegetation types. Finally, based on the issues identified in this paper, we highlighted eight potential research themes for the future studies.

Blocking Gremlin1 inhibits M1 macrophage polarization through Notch1/Hes1 signaling pathway in apical periodontitis.

BACKGROUND: Gremlin1 is a multifunctional protein whose expression is demonstrated to be involved in a series of physiology and pathological processes. The association between Gremlin1 and apcial periodontitis (AP) has been established. M1-polarized macrophages are crucial immune cells that exacerbate the progression of apical periodontal inflammatory response, but the function of Gremlin1 during macrophages activation in periapical lesions is still unclear. This study attempts to explore the regulatory effects of Gremlin1 on macrophage polarization on apical periodontitis microenviroment. METHODS: Clinical specimens were used to determine the expression of Gremlin1 in periapical tissues by immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. Then, the disease models of periapical inflammation in rats were established, and adenovirus- associated virus (AAVs) was used to blockade Gremlin1 expression. Lentivirus carrying sh-Gremlin1 particles were used to transfect THP-1 induced M1-subtype macrophages. To assess the expression of associated molecules, Western-blot, immunofluorescence staining were performed. RESULTS: Gremlin1 was significantly up-regulated in the periapical tissues of subjects with AP as identified by IHC staining, and positively correlated with levels of M1 macrophage-associated genes. Rats AP model with inhibition of Gremlin1 in periapical lesions exhibited limited infiltration of macrophages and decreased expression of M1 macrophage-related genes in periapical lesions. Furthermore, Gremlin1 blockade substantially decreased the Notch1/Hes1 signaling pathway activation level. The in vitro experiments confirmed the above results. CONCLUSION: Taken together, current study illustrated that the Gremlin1 suppression in periapical lesions inhibited M1 macrophage polarization through Notch1/Hes1 axis. Moreover, Gremlin1 may act as a potential candidate in the treatment of AP.

A scientometrics analysis and visualization of refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Background: Refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease (refractory GERD) is a heterogeneous disease characterized by unresponsiveness or poor efficacy to proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs). This chronic disorder substantially weakens patients' mental wellbeing and quality of life, increasing the financial burden on society. Multiple articles have been reported in this area. However, literature involving scientometric analysis of refractory GERD is absent. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the evolution of research themes and the main hotspots of refractory GERD through bibliometric methods. Methods: All documents related to refractory GERD based on the WOS Core Collection from January 2000 to November 2023 were selected for analysis. Citespace V 6.1 R6, VOSviewer V 1.6.20, and Scimago Graphica V 1.0.38 were used to perform bibliometric analysis. Results: We collected a total of 241 research articles from 36 countries and 322 institutions, contributed by over 1,000 authors. Over the last 20 years, the number of articles in this field has increased year by year, and since 2011, the number of publications has increased dramatically, with 85.89% of the papers. These countries are led by the United States and Japan. GUT had the highest number of citations and DIGESTION had the highest number of publications. Research on standardized diagnosis and management, mechanisms, novel monitoring methods, and innovative drugs and procedures for refractory GERD are the main topics and hotspots in this field. This study also found that neuroimmune interaction is closely related to refractory GERD, which may be a new direction for future mechanism research. Conclusion: Our study is the first bibliometric analysis of the global literature on refractory GERD. This research provides valuable insights for researchers, enabling them to quickly understand the research frontier and hot topics of this field.

Repression of BRD4 mitigates NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated pyroptosis in Mycobacterium-infected macrophages by repressing endoplasmic reticulum stress.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of human death worldwide due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. Multiple lines of evidences have illuminated the emerging role of NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated pyroptosis in the clearance of pathogenic infection. In the current study, we sought to investigate the functional role and feasible potential mechanism of BRD4 in Mtb-infected macrophages. We observed that BRD4 was distinctly ascended in THP-1 macrophages upon Mtb infection. Functionally, intervention of BRD4 or pretreated with JQ1 obviously restricted Mtb-triggered cell pyroptosis, as evidenced by declination of protein level of the specific pyroptosis markers including Cleaved Caspase 1, gasdermin D (GSDMD-N) and Cleaved-IL-1ß. In the meanwhile, disruption of BRD4 or JQ1 application remarkably prohibited excessive inflammatory responses as characterized by reduce the production of the inflammatory factors such as IL-1ß and IL-18. Concomitantly, disruption of BRD4 or administrated with JQ1 manifestly repressed Mtb-aroused Nod-like receptor family pyrindomain-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome activation, as witnessed by attenuation of protein levels of NLRP3, Pro-Caspase1 and apoptosis-associated speck-like protein (ASC). The above findings clearly demonstrated that suppression of BRD4 exerted great influence on regulating Mtb-elicited inflammatory response by coordinating NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated pyroptosis. More importantly, perturbation of BRD4 or JQ1 employment notably restrained endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress triggered by Mtb-infection, as reflected by noticeably lessened the levels of GRP78, CHOP and ATF6. In terms of mechanism, ER stress agonist tunicamycin profoundly abrogated the favorable effects of BRD4 inhibition on Mtb-triggered pyroptosis, inflammation reaction and inflammasome activation. Collectively, these preceding outcomes strongly illuminated that inhibition of BRD4 targeted ER stress to retard NLRP3 inflammasome activation and subsequent cell pyroptosis and prevention of inflammatory response in Mtb-infected macrophages, highlighting that blocking BRD4 might serve as a promising candidate for protection against Mtb-triggered inflammatory injury.

Industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) can utilize and remediate soil strongly contaminated with Cu, As, Cd, and Pb by phytoattenuation.

Industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has great application potential in heavy metal-polluted soils owing to its safe non-food utilization. However, the fate of heavy metals in different varieties of hemp planted in strongly contaminated natural soils remains unknown. Here, we investigated the growth, heavy metal uptake, distribution, and transfer of nine hemp varieties in soils strongly contaminated with Cu, As, Cd, and Pb. Hemp variety and metal type were the main factors affecting the growth and heavy metal uptake in hemp. The nine hemp varieties grew well in the contaminated soils; however, differences existed among the varieties. The biomass of Z3 reached 5669.1 kg hm-1, whereas that of Yunma No. 1 was only 51.8 % of Z3. The plant height, stalk diameter, and stalk bark thickness of Z3 were greater than those of the other varieties, reaching 168 cm, 9.2 mm, and 0.56 mm, respectively. Permanova's analysis revealed that the total effects of Cu, As, Cd, and Pb on the growth of the nine hemp varieties reached 60 %, with leaf As having the greatest effect, reaching 16 %. , Even in strongly contaminated soils, the nine varieties showed poor Cu, As, Cd, and Pb uptake. Most of the Cu, As, Cd, and Pb were retained in the root, reaching 57.7-72.4, 47.6-64.7, 76.0-92.9, and 70.0-87.8 %, respectively. Overall, the Cu, As, Cd, and Pb uptake of Wanma No.1 was the highest among the nine varieties, whereas that of Guangxi Bama was the lowest. These results indicate that hemp is a viable alternative for phytoattenuation in soils contaminated with heavy metals because of its ability to tolerate and accumulate Cu, As, Cd, and Pb in its roots, and Guangxi Bama is superior to the other varieties considering the safe utilization of hemp products.

A tough and bioadhesive injectable hydrogel formed with maleimidyl alginate and pristine gelatin.

Injectable hydrogels have wide applications in clinical practice. However, the development of tough and bioadhesive ones based on biopolymers, along with biofriendly and robust crosslinking strategies, still represents a great challenge. Herein, we report an injectable hydrogel composed of maleimidyl alginate and pristine gelatin, for which the precursor solutions could self-crosslink via mild Michael-type addition without any catalyst or external energy upon mixing. This hydrogel is tough and bioadhesive, which can maintain intactness as well as adherence to the defect of porcine skin under fierce bending and twisting, warm water bath, and boiling water shower. Besides, it is biocompatible, bioactive and biodegradable, which could support the growth and remodeling of cells by affording an extracellular matrix-like environment. As a proof of application, we demonstrate that this hydrogel could significantly accelerate diabetic skin wound healing, thereby holding great potential in healthcare.

A network pharmacology method explores the molecular mechanism of Coptis chinensis for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

To predict the molecular mechanisms of action of Coptis chinensis in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease using network pharmacology. The active ingredients and targets of Coptis chinensis were obtained from the Traditional Chinese Medicine System Pharmacology Database. Target information for Alzheimer's disease was screened using the GeneCard and OMIM databases. The Venn diagram tool was used to identify the intersecting targets of Coptis chinensis and Alzheimer's disease. The obtained target information was entered into the STRING database to construct a protein-protein interaction network. The R language was used to perform Gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analyses of significant targets. Auto Dock Vina software was used for molecular docking. Fourteen effective active ingredients and 158 key targets associated with Coptis chinensis were identified. There were 1113 targets related to Alzheimer's disease genes. A drug-component-disease-target network was constructed and 84 key targets were identified for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease by Coptis chinensis. The main signaling pathways were the PI3K-Akt, AGE-RAGE, MAPK, HIF-1, TNF, and relaxin signaling pathways. The molecular docking results showed that berberine has a high affinity for Alzheimer's Disease. Coptis chinensis could play a multi-target and multi-pathway role against Alzheimer's disease, which has guiding significance for clinical research.

Vascular stent with immobilized anti-inflammatory chemerin 15 peptides mitigates neointimal hyperplasia and accelerates vascular healing.

Endovascular stenting is a safer alternative to open surgery for use in treating cerebral arterial stenosis and significantly reduces the recurrence of ischemic stroke, but the widely used bare-metal stents (BMSs) often result in in-stent restenosis (ISR). Although evidence suggests that drug-eluting stents are superior to BMSs in the short term, their long-term performances remain unknown. Herein, we propose a potential vascular stent modified by immobilizing clickable chemerin 15 (C15) peptides on the stent surface to suppress coagulation and restenosis. Various characterization techniques and an animal model were used to evaluate the surface properties of the modified stents and their effects on endothelial injury, platelet adhesion, and inflammation. The C15-immobilized stent could prevent restenosis by minimizing endothelial injury, promoting physiological healing, restraining the platelet-leukocyte-related inflammatory response, and inhibiting vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration. Furthermore, in vivo studies demonstrated that the C15-immobilized stent mitigated inflammation, suppressed neointimal hyperplasia, and accelerated endothelial restoration. The use of surface-modified, anti-inflammatory, endothelium-friendly stents may be of benefit to patients with arterial stenosis. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Endovascular stenting is increasingly used for cerebral arterial stenosis treatment, aiming to prevent and treat ischemic stroke. But an important accompanying complication is in-stent restenosis (ISR). Persistent inflammation has been established as a hallmark of ISR and anti-inflammation strategies in stent modification proved effective. Chemerin 15, an inflammatory resolution mediator with 15-aa peptide, was active at picomolar through cell surface receptor, no need to permeate cell membrane and involved in resolution of inflammation by inhibiting inflammatory cells adhesion, modulating macrophage polarization into protective phenotype, and reducing inflammatory factors release. The implications of this study are that C15 immobilized stent favors inflammation resolution and rapid re-endothelialization, and exhibits an inhibitory role of restenosis. As such, it helps the decreased incidence of ISR.

Research Advance of Chinese Medicine in Treating Atherosclerosis: Focus on Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 / 中国结合医学杂志

As a serious cardiovascular disease, atherosclerosis (AS) causes chronic inflammation and oxidative stress in the body and poses a threat to human health. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is a member of the phospholipase A2 (PLA2) family, and its elevated levels have been shown to contribute to AS. Lp-PLA2 is closely related to a variety of lipoproteins, and its role in promoting inflammatory responses and oxidative stress in AS is mainly achieved by hydrolyzing oxidized phosphatidylcholine (oxPC) to produce lysophosphatidylcholine (lysoPC). Moreover, macrophage apoptosis within plaque is promoted by localized Lp-PLA2 which also promotes plaque instability. This paper reviews those researches of Chinese medicine in treating AS via reducing Lp-PLA2 levels to guide future experimental studies and clinical applications related to AS.

Binder jet 3D printing composite bilayer tablet of extended-release printing technology in the study / 药学学报

Based on the dual needs of analgesia and anti-inflammation in trauma treatment, this study uses acetaminophen and moxifloxacin hydrochloride as active pharmaceutical ingredients and develops a composite bilayer tablet with a dual-phase drug release system by using binder jet 3D printing technology. Due to the complexity of the 3D printing process, there is an interaction between the various parameters. Through the optimization of the process, the relationship between the key process parameters can be determined more intuitively. In this study, the process of extended-release tablets was optimized to maintain the mechanical properties of the tablets while realizing the regulation of release. The full-factor experimental design of three central points 23 was used to analyze the factors that significantly affect the quality attributes of extended-release tablets and the interaction between factors. The optimal extended-release process parameters were obtained by the response optimizer: the inkjet quantity of the printing ink was 10 (about 13.8 pL), the powder thickness was 180 μm, and the running speed was 360 mm·s-1. The in vitro of release of 3D printed composite bilayer tablets showed that the in vitro of release of 3D printed tablets and commercially available tablets conformed to the Ritger-Peppas release model. The results of porosity showed that the immediate-release layer of the preparation has many pores and large pore size, and the dissolution of the immediate release layer within 15 min was greater than 85%. The internal pore size of the extended release layer is large, but it can still release slowly for up to 8 h, the mechanism may be related to the extended release of HPMC gelation. On the basis of verifying the rationality of the design goal of 3D printed composite bilayer tablets, this study also provides a theoretical basis for the preparation of 3D printing complex preparations.

Research advances on extracellular vesicles-based regulation by traditional Chinese medicines and the relationship with TCM "Qi" / 药学学报

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are an important type of active microvesicles. EVs encapsulate and transfer functional substances such as miRNAs, transcription factors and proteins, which are important vectors for cell communication and organ dialogue. In recent years, studies have shown that quite a number of Chinese medicinal herbs have the pharmacological effect of regulating EVs, and play a unique trans-organ and remote role in the treatment of diseases. Some Chinese medicinal herbs also contain plant-derived EVs themselves, which can be directly involved in the treatment of diseases. As one of the core theories of raditional Chinese medicines (TCM), Qi plays a variety of important roles in the physiological and pathological processes of human body and pharmacology. However, the scientific connotation of Qi′s role and the potential material carrier are still unclear. The latest research suggests that the effect of EVs is potentially related to that of Qi. Therefore, this paper reviews the effect of Qi nourishing Chinese medicinal herbs in regulating EVs in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, nervous system diseases, liver diseases, renal diseases, malignant tumors and other diseases in recent years. EVs may play an important role in the pharmacological effect of some Chinese medicinal herbs in the treatment of diseases as an intermediary substance. EVs have the characteristics of long-distance transportation, which is consistent with the movement of Qi in TCM. EVs carry a variety of functional molecules, which is consistent with the function of Qi. As the potential material basis of Qi in TCM, the function of EVs is worth further study.

Analysis on the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in 664 district/county-level centers for disease control and prevention in China in 2020 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: To analyze the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control of district/county-level centers for disease control and prevention(CDC) in China in 2020. Methods: Survey subjects were from National Chronic Noncommunicable Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance Sites and National Demonstration Areas for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control (demonstration areas). A survey examining the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control at district/county-level CDC was conducted in December 2021 through the National Demonstration Areas Management Information System. The number and rate of allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in district/county-level CDC were analyzed and the Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the difference between demonstration and non-demonstration areas and between urban and rural areas. The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to compare the difference in east, central and west regions. The Gini coefficient and Theil index were used to evaluate the balance of human resource for chronic disease prevention and control. Results: A total of 678 districts/counties were investigated, and 664 districts/counties responded effectively, with an effective response rate of 97.9%. The establishment rate of district/county-level CDC was 98.34% (653/664), and the establishment rate of chronic disease prevention and control departments of district/county-level CDC was 96.02% (627/653). In 627 district/county-level CDC with departments for chronic disease prevention and control, the median number of full-time technical personnel for chronic disease prevention and control was 4, the median number of full-time technical personnel in demonstration areas (4 persons) was higher than in non-demonstration areas (3 persons), highest in the east region (5 persons) than in the middle region (4 persons) and the west region (4 persons), higher in urban areas (4 persons) than in rural areas (4 persons) (all P values<0.05). The allocation rate was 0.71 people/100 000, which was higher in demonstration areas (0.73 people/100 000) than in non-demonstration areas (0.67 people/100 000), highest in the west region (0.82 people/100 000) than in the middle region (0.71 people/100 000) and east region (0.67 people/100 000), higher in rural areas (0.77 people/100 000) than in urban areas (0.68 people/100 000) (all P values<0.05). The Gini coefficient for the allocation by population size was 0.352 9. The total Theil index for demonstration and non-demonstration areas, different regions, and urban-rural areas were 0.067 8, 0.076 3, and 0.000 2, with the intra-group contribution of 97.35%, 99.52%, and 98.80%, respectively. Conclusion: In 2020, the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in district/county-level CDC is relatively balanced. The variation in the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control exist between demonstration and non-demonstration areas, urban and rural areas, and across regions.

Analysis of the core knowledge level of chronic diseases in Chinese adults and related factors / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: To understand the core knowledge level and influencing factors of chronic disease prevention and control in Adults in China, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating chronic disease prevention and control measures. Methods: In this study, cross-sectional survey and quota sampling were used to recruit 173 819 permanent residents aged 18 and above from 302 counties of adult chronic diseases and nutrition surveillance in China to conduct an online questionnaire survey, including basic information and core knowledge of chronic diseases. The scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control were described by median and interquartile range, the Wilcoxon rank sum test or the Kruskal Wallis test was used for the inter-group comparison, and the correlation factors of the total score were analyzed by the multilinear regression model. Results: A total of 172 808 participants were surveyed in 302 counties and districts, of which 42.60%(73 623) were male and 57.40%(99 185) were female; The proportion of respondents aged 18-44, 45-59, and 60 years old and above was 54.74% (94 594), 30.91% (53 423) and 14.35% (24 791), respectively. The total score of the core knowledge of chronic prevention and control in the total population was 66(13), and the scores of different characteristic groups were different, and the differences were statistically significant: the eastern region had the highest score at 67(11) (H=840.66, P<0.01), the urban 66(12) was higher than the rural 65(14) (Z=-31.35, P<0.01), and the male 66(14) was lower than female 66(12) (Z=-11.66, P<0.01), 18-24 years old 64(13) was lower than other age groups(H=115.80, P<0.01), and undergraduate degree and above had the highest score compared to other academic qualifications, with 68(9) points(H=2 547.25, P<0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that eastern (t=27.42, P<0.01), central (t=17.33, P<0.01), urban (t=5.69, P<0.01), female (t=17.81, P<0.01), high age (t=46.04, P<0.01) and high education (t=57.77, P<0.01) had higher scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control than other groups, the scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control of professional and technical personnel (t=8.63, P<0.01), state enterprises and institutions (t=38.67, P<0.01), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy production (t=5.30, P<0.01), production, transportation and commercial personnel (t=24.87, P<0.01), and other workers (t=8.89, P<0.01) were higher than those of non-employed people. Conclusion: There are differences in the total scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control in different characteristics of people in China, and in the future, health education on the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases should be strengthened for specific groups to improve the knowledge level of residents.

Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Potential short-term effects of tobacco control scheme under various application scenarios of tobacco control measures across the globe: a Meta-analysis / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: based on summarizing the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures across the globe and sorting out the various scenarios of tobacco control measures, the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were systematically analyzed. Methods: Until April 2022, PubMed, Embase, EconLit, PsychINFO, and CINAHL databases were used to retrieve literature about tobacco control measures simulation and prediction models across the globe. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were strictly followed. Meta-analysis for the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios was performed using the R software. Results: A total of 22 papers covering 16 countries were selected. Five studies were conducted in the United States, three in Mexico, and two in Italy. There were all papers with the measures to tax increases, smoke-free air laws, and mass media campaigns, 21 papers with youth access restrictions, 20 with marketing restrictions, and 19 with cessation treatment programs and health warnings. The tax increases had diverse influences on the price elasticity of different age groups. The price elasticity in the age group 15-17 years was the highest, which was 0.044 (95%CI: 0.038-0.051). The potential short-term effects of smoke-free air laws in workplaces were higher than in restaurants and other indoor public places. The effects of youth access restrictions were greater in the age group <16 years than in the age group 16-17. The stronger the implementation of other measures, the greater the potential short-term effects. A comparison of seven tobacco control measures showed that the cessation treatment programs increase in cessation rate was the highest, 0.404 (95%CI: 0.357-0.456). The reduction in smoking rate and reduction in initiation rate of youth access restrictions strongly enforced and publicized was the highest in the age group <16 years, 0.292 (95%CI: 0.269-0.315), and 0.292 (95%CI: 0.270-0.316). Conclusions: The potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were evaluated more accurately and objectively through Meta-analysis. In the short term, cessation treatment programs will substantially increase smoking cessation rates, and strong youth access enforcement will sharply reduce smoking and initiation rates among adolescents under 16. These results also offer strong data-related support for the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures in China and other countries.

The global HIV response at 40

It is helpful to divide the global HIV response into three phases: The first, from about 1980 to 2000, represents "Calamity". The second, from roughly 2000 to 2015 represents "Hope." The third, from 2015, is unfolding and may be termed "Choices" ­ and these choices may be severely constrained by COVID, so "Constrained Choices in an era of COVID" may prove more apt. As we take stock of HIV at 40, there are positive lessons for the wider health response ­ and challenging reflections for the wider impact of the global HIV response. The positive lessons include: (1) the importance of activism; (2) the role of scientific progress and innovation; (3) the impact of evidence in concentrating resources on proven approaches; (4) the importance of surveillance to understanding transmission dynamics; (5) the use of epidemic intelligence to guide precision implementation; (6) the focus on implementation cascades (diagnosis, linkage, adherence, disease suppression); and finally (7) an overarching execution and results focus. Given this remarkable legacy, it seems churlish to ask whether the HIV response could have achieved more. yet, consider these approximate figures. Development assistance for HIV totals about 100 billion dollars, 70 billion from the USA matched by roughly 100 billion in domestic resources. For 200 billion dollars, should we not have achieved more than 23 million people initiating treatment (very crudely, 10 000 dollars per person on treatment)? Much of the hundred billion dollars of development assistance (roughly half) focused on about a dozen priority countries in eastern and southern African. The larger PEPFAR recipients, with populations of roughly 50 million, each received 5 billion dollars or more cumulatively. And there are further Global Fund contributions of an additional billion dollars in many of these countries. For 6 billion dollars per country, should we have expected more? The World Bank Human Capital Project posits that to maximize human capital formation, countries must ensure that their children survive, are well nourished and stimulated, learn skills and live long, productive lives. Using the Human Capital Index (a composite index based on these factors), South Africa ­ the largest HIV financing recipient ­ ranks 126th of 157 countries, below Haiti, Ghana, the Congo Republic, Senegal and Benin. Consider how many recipients of major HIV development finance fall into the bottom fifth: Namibia, Botswana, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda, Lesotho, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Cote D'Ivoire and Nigeria. Of course, causality is unresolved and there are several possible explanations: (1) low human capital formation may increase HIV transmission; (2) the HIV epidemic may have intergenerational impacts; (3) the all-consuming focus on HIV may have displaced other health, education and development priorities. yet, it remains hard to see these data and to argue that successful HIV responses among the largest HIV financing recipients strengthened their wider health sector and human development outcomes. A plausible principle emerges. Narrowly targeted disease-specific emergency responses may lead to disease-specific gains but do not improve governance or national systems capacity or wider disease or development outcomes. This is not to undermine the emergency origins of the HIV response; 2021 is not 2000 and it is unlikely that we would have 23 million people initiating treatment without an emergency response. yet, there are reasons (intensified by COVID), to suggest that we must pivot towards long-term, integrated, developmental, nationally owned and financed, systems-orientated responses ­ particularly when both development assistance and national budgets are likely to be constrained in an era of COVID.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.