Valuing the health benefits of nature-based recreational physical activity in England.

Physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Natural environments support recreational PA. Using data including a representative cross-sectional survey of the English population, we estimated the annual value of nature-based PA conducted in England in 2019 in terms of avoided healthcare and societal costs of disease. Population-representative data from the Monitor of Engagement with the Natural Environment (MENE) survey (n = 47,580; representing 44,386,756) were used to estimate the weekly volume of nature-based recreational PA by adults in England in 2019. We used epidemiological dose-response data to calculate incident cases of six NCDs (ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic stroke (IS), type 2 diabetes (T2D), colon cancer (CC), breast cancer (BC) and major depressive disorder (MDD)) prevented through nature-based PA, and estimated associated savings using published costs of healthcare, informal care and productivity losses. We investigated additional savings resulting from hypothetical increases in: (a) visitor PA and (b) visitor numbers. In 2019, 22million adults > 16 years of age in England visited natural environments at least weekly. At reported volumes of nature-based PA, we estimated that 550 cases of IHD, 168 cases of IS, 1,410 cases of T2D, 41 cases of CC, 37 cases of BC and 10,552 cases of MDD were prevented, creating annual savings of £108.7million (95 % uncertainty interval: £70.3million; £150.3million). Nature-based recreational PA in England results in reduced burden of disease and considerable annual savings through prevention of priority NCDs. Strategies that increase nature-based PA could lead to further reductions in the societal burden of NCDs.

The use of Enhanced Vegetation Index for assessing access to different types of green space in epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to green space can protect against poor health through a variety of mechanisms. However, there is heterogeneity in methodological approaches to exposure assessments which makes creating effective policy recommendations challenging. OBJECTIVE: Critically evaluate the use of a satellite-derived exposure metric, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), for assessing access to different types of green space in epidemiological studies. METHODS: We used Landsat 5-8 (30 m resolution) to calculate average EVI for a 300 m radius surrounding 1.4 million households in Wales, UK for 2018. We calculated two additional measures using topographic vector data to represent access to green spaces within 300 m of household locations. The two topographic vector-based measures were total green space area stratified by type and average private garden size. We used linear regression models to test whether EVI could discriminate between publicly accessible and private green space and Pearson correlation to test associations between EVI and green space types. RESULTS: Mean EVI for a 300 m radius surrounding households in Wales was 0.28 (IQR = 0.12). Total green space area and average private garden size were significantly positively associated with corresponding EVI measures (ß = < 0.0001, 95% CI: 0.0000, 0.0000; ß = 0.0001, 95% CI: 0.0001, 0.0001 respectively). In urban areas, as average garden size increases by 1 m2, EVI increases by 0.0002. Therefore, in urban areas, to see a 0.1 unit increase in EVI index score, garden size would need to increase by 500 m2. The very small ß values represent no 'measurable real-world' associations. When stratified by type, we observed no strong associations between greenspace and EVI. IMPACT: It is a widely implemented assumption in epidiological studies that an increase in EVI is equivalent to an increase in greenness and/or green space. We used linear regression models to test associations between EVI and potential sources of green reflectance at a neighbourhood level using satellite imagery from 2018. We compared EVI measures with a 'gold standard' vector-based dataset that defines publicly accessible and private green spaces. We found that EVI should be interpreted with care as a greater EVI score does not necessarily mean greater access to publicly available green spaces in the hyperlocal environment.

Green-blue space exposure changes and impact on individual-level well-being and mental health: a population-wide dynamic longitudinal panel study with linked survey data.

Background: Cross-sectional evidence suggests that living near green and blue spaces benefits mental health; longitudinal evidence is limited. Objectives: To quantify the impact of changes in green and blue spaces on common mental health disorders, well-being and health service use. Design: A retrospective, dynamic longitudinal panel study. Setting: Wales, UK. Participants: An e-cohort comprising 99,682,902 observations of 2,801,483 adults (≥ 16 years) registered with a general practice in Wales (2008-2019). A 5312-strong 'National Survey for Wales (NSW) subgroup' was surveyed on well-being and visits to green and blue spaces. Main outcome measures: Common mental health disorders, general practice records; subjective well-being, Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale. Data sources: Common mental health disorder and use of general practice services were extracted quarterly from the Welsh Longitudinal General Practice Dataset. Annual ambient greenness exposure, enhanced vegetation index and access to green and blue spaces (2018) from planning and satellite data. Data were linked within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Methods: Multilevel regression models examined associations between exposure to green and blue spaces and common mental health disorders and use of general practice. For the National Survey for Wales subgroup, generalised linear models examined associations between exposure to green and blue spaces and subjective well-being and common mental health disorders. Results and conclusions: Our longitudinal analyses found no evidence that changes in green and blue spaces through time impacted on common mental health disorders. However, time-aggregated exposure to green and blue spaces contrasting differences between people were associated with subsequent common mental health disorders. Similarly, our cross-sectional findings add to growing evidence that residential green and blue spaces and visits are associated with well-being benefits: Greater ambient greenness (+ 1 enhanced vegetation index) was associated with lower likelihood of subsequently seeking care for a common mental health disorder [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval, (CI) 0.80 to 0.81] and with well-being with a U-shaped relationship [Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale; enhanced vegetation index beta (adjusted) -10.15, 95% CI -17.13 to -3.17; EVI2 beta (quadratic term; adj.) 12.49, 95% CI 3.02 to 21.97]. Those who used green and blue spaces for leisure reported better well-being, with diminishing extra benefit with increasing time (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale: time outdoors (hours) beta 0.88, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.24, time outdoors2 beta -0.06, 95% CI -0.11 to -0.01) and had 4% lower odds of seeking help for common mental health disorders (AOR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99). Those in urban areas benefited most from greater access to green and blue spaces (AOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.89). Those in material deprivation benefited most from leisure time outdoors (until approximately four hours per week; Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale: time outdoorsâ€…× in material deprivation: 1.41, 95% CI 0.39 to 2.43; time outdoors2 × in material deprivation -0.18, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.04) although well-being remained generally lower. Limitations: Longitudinal analyses were restricted by high baseline levels and limited temporal variation in ambient greenness in Wales. Changes in access to green and blue spaces could not be captured annually due to technical issues with national-level planning datasets. Future work: Further analyses could investigate mental health impacts in population subgroups potentially most sensitive to local changes in access to specific types of green and blue spaces. Deriving green and blue spaces changes from planning data is needed to overcome temporal uncertainties. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (Project number 16/07/07) and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 10. Sarah Rodgers is part-funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast.

We investigated whether people who live near or visit green (parks, woodlands) and blue (riversides, beaches) spaces have fewer common mental health disorders (anxiety or depression), and better well-being. We considered whether changes in the amount of green and blue space around the home affected people's mental health. We assessed the availability of local green and blue spaces. Annual exposure and access to local green and blue spaces were extracted from planning and satellite data. We linked these data to anonymised health records of 2,801,483 adults registered with a general practice from 2008 to 2019, and to survey answers about leisure visits to natural environments and well-being. We found: people who lived in greener and bluer areas were less likely to seek help for a common mental health disorder than those in less green or blue areas, with those living in the most deprived areas benefiting the most people who used green and blue spaces for leisure, especially those with the greatest levels of deprivation, had better well-being and were less likely to seek help for common mental health disorders no evidence that changing amounts of green and blue space affected how likely people were to seek help for common mental health disorders; this may be because we found mostly small changes in green and blue space, and we may not have allowed enough time between moving home and recording mental health. We found evidence for relationships between green and blue space and mental health. However, some analyses were restricted due to lack of data on changes in green and blue spaces. An important finding was that people in deprived communities appear to benefit the most. Provision of green and blue spaces could be a strategy to improve the mental health of people living in disadvantaged areas.

Ambient greenness, access to local green spaces, and subsequent mental health: a 10-year longitudinal dynamic panel study of 2·3 million adults in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Living in greener areas, or close to green and blue spaces (GBS; eg, parks, lakes, or beaches), is associated with better mental health, but longitudinal evidence when GBS exposures precede outcomes is less available. We aimed to analyse the effect of living in or moving to areas with more green space or better access to GBS on subsequent adult mental health over time, while explicitly considering health inequalities. METHODS: A cohort of the people in Wales, UK (≥16 years; n=2 341 591) was constructed from electronic health record data sources from Jan 1, 2008 to Oct 31, 2019, comprising 19 141 896 person-years of follow-up. Household ambient greenness (Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI]), access to GBS (counts, distance to nearest), and common mental health disorders (CMD, based on a validated algorithm combining current diagnoses or symptoms of anxiety or depression [treated or untreated in the preceding 1-year period], or treatment of historical diagnoses from before the current cohort [up to 8 years previously, to 2000], where diagnosis preceded treatment) were record-linked. Cumulative exposure values were created for each adult, censoring for CMD, migration out of Wales, death, or end of cohort. Exposure and CMD associations were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression, stratified by area-level deprivation. FINDINGS: After adjustment, exposure to greater ambient greenness over time (+0·1 increased EVI on a 0-1 scale) was associated with lower odds of subsequent CMD (adjusted odds ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·80-0·81), where CMD was based on a combination of current diagnoses or symptoms (treated or untreated in the preceding 1-year period), or treatments. Ten percentile points more access to GBS was associated with lower odds of a later CMD (0·93, 0·93-0·93). Every additional 360 m to the nearest GBS was associated with higher odds of CMD (1·05, 1·04-1·05). We found that positive effects of GBS on mental health appeared to be greater in more deprived quintiles. INTERPRETATION: Ambient exposure is associated with the greatest reduced risk of CMD, particularly for those who live in deprived communities. These findings support authorities responsible for GBS, who are attempting to engage planners and policy makers, to ensure GBS meets residents' needs. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Public Health Research programme.

What is known about what works in community-involved decision-making relating to urban green and blue spaces? A realist review protocol.

BACKGROUND: There is now a relatively well-established evidence base suggesting that greener living environments and time spent in urban green and blue spaces (UGBS) can be beneficial for human health and wellbeing. However, benefits are not universal and there remain widespread social inequalities in access to such resources and experiences, particularly along axes of class, race, ethnicity, age and disability, and in relation to efforts to increase the availability and accessibility of such spaces. These injustices often relate to distributive, procedural and recognition-based processes. There is growing interest in how to ensure that efforts to increase access to or use of UGBS (whether through infrastructural or social programmes) result in equitable outcomes whilst minimising potential for exacerbating existing inequalities and injustices. Community engagement is considered an important step towards more inclusive UGBS decision-making, from planning and design to management and maintenance processes. It is thought to contribute to better and more widely trusted decisions, enhanced democracy, community satisfaction, civic interest and feelings of green space ownership, and greater longevity of UGBS projects. However, uneven representation and barriers to participation can create imbalances and undermine these benefits. METHODS: An iterative, multi-stage realist-inspired review will be conducted to ask what works, in what context and in what ways relating to the meaningful involvement of communities in UGBS decision-making, focusing on the skills, capacities and capabilities of different stakeholders and the role of contexts and processes. 'Effectiveness' (or what works) will be understood as a multifaceted outcome, encompassing both the processes and results of community engagement efforts. Following a scoping stage to identify initial programme theory, inclusion/exclusion criteria and derive search terms, relevant databases and grey literature will be searched to identify interdisciplinary literature in two phases. The first phase will be used to further develop programme theories, which will be articulated as 'if then' statements. The second phase searches will be used to identify sources to further explore and evidence the programme and formal theory. We will assess all includable evidence for conceptual richness, prioritising more conceptually rich sources if needed. DISCUSSION: The realist synthesis will explore the key context, mechanism and outcome configurations that appear to explain if and how different approaches to community-involved UGBS decision-making are or are not effective. We will consider factors such as different conceptualisations of community, and if and how they have been involved in UGBS decision-making; the types of tools and approaches used; and the socio-cultural and political or governance structures within which decision-making takes place.

Nature contact and general health: Testing multiple serial mediation pathways with data from adults in 18 countries.

The role of neighbourhood nature in promoting good health is increasingly recognised in policy and practice, but consistent evidence for the underlying mechanisms is lacking. Heterogeneity in exposure methods, outcome measures, and population characteristics, little exploration of recreational use or the role of different types of green or blue space, and multiple separate mediation models in previous studies have limited our ability to synthesise findings and draw clear conclusions. We examined multiple pathways linking different types of neighbourhood nature with general health using a harmonised international sample of adults. Using cross-sectional survey data from 18 countries (n = 15,917), we developed a multigroup path model to test theorised pathways, controlling for sociodemographic variables. We tested the possibility that neighbourhood nature (e.g. greenspace, inland bluespace, and coastal bluespace) would be associated with general health through lower air pollution exposure, greater physical activity attainment, more social contact, and higher subjective well-being. However, our central prediction was that associations between different types of neighbourhood nature and general health would largely be serially mediated by recent visit frequency to corresponding environment types, and, subsequently, physical activity, social contact, and subjective well-being associated with these frequencies. Several subsidiary analyses assessed the robustness of the results to alternative model specifications as well as effect modification by sociodemographics. Consistent with this prediction, there was statistical support for eight of nine potential serial mediation pathways via visit frequency which held for a range of alternative model specifications. Effect modification by financial strain, sex, age, and urbanicity altered some associations but did not necessarily support the idea that nature reduced health inequalities. The results demonstrate that across countries, theorised nature-health linkages operate primarily through recreational contact with natural environments. This provides arguments for greater efforts to support use of local green/blue spaces for health promotion and disease prevention.

Visiting nature is associated with lower socioeconomic inequalities in well-being in Wales.

Natural environments can promote well-being through multiple mechanisms. Many studies have investigated relationships between residential green/blue space (GBS) and well-being, fewer explore relationships with actual use of GBS. We used a nationally representative survey, the National Survey for Wales, anonymously linked with spatial GBS data to investigate associations of well-being with both residential GBS and time in nature (N = 7631). Both residential GBS and time spent in nature were associated with subjective well-being. Higher green-ness was associated with lower well-being, counter to hypotheses (predicting the Warwick and Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS): Enhanced vegetation index ß = - 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) - 3.63, - 0.05) but time spent in nature was associated with higher well-being (four hours a week in nature vs. none ß = 3.57, 95% CI 3.02, 4.13). There was no clear association between nearest GBS proximity and well-being. In support of the equigenesis theory, time spent in nature was associated with smaller socioeconomic inequalities in well-being. The difference in WEMWBS (possible range 14-70) between those who did and did not live in material deprivation was 7.7 points for those spending no time in nature, and less at 4.5 points for those spending time in nature up to 1 h per week. Facilitating access and making it easier for people to spend time in nature may be one way to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in well-being.

Ixodes ricinus density, Borrelia prevalence and the density of infected nymphs along an urban-rural gradient in southern England.

Ticks are found across a range of habitats, with woodland being particularly important for high densities and prevalence of Borrelia infection. Assessments of risk in urban woodland can be difficult if there are low densities and small sample sizes for Borrelia prevalence estimates. This study targeted six urban woodlands with established tick populations, as well as six woodlands in peri-urban zones and six woodlands in rural zones in and around the cities of Bath and Southampton, in the South of England. Nymph densities were estimated, and 100 nymphs were tested from each of the 18 woodlands studied. Ixodes ricinus ticks were found in all woodlands surveyed, and overall density of nymphs (DON) per 100 m2 was 18.17 in urban woodlands, 26.0 in peri-urban woodlands and 17.67 in rural woodlands. Out of 600 nymphs tested across urban woodlands, 10.3% were infected with Borrelia. The same proportion of nymphs collected in rural woodlands were positive for Borrelia. In peri-urban woodlands, 10.8% of nymphs tested positive. Across both cities combined, density of infected nymphs (DIN) was 2.73 per 100 m2 in peri-urban woodland, 1.87 per 100 m2 in urban woodland and 1.82 per 100 m2 in rural woodland. Overall, DON, Borrelia prevalence and DIN did not differ significantly along an urban-rural gradient. This suggests the risk of Lyme borreliosis transmission could be similar, or perhaps even elevated in urban woodland if there is higher public footfall, subsequent contact with ticks and less awareness of the risks. This is particularly important from a public health perspective, as Borrelia garinii dominated across the gradient and this genospecies is linked to neuroborreliosis.

Impact of green space connectivity on urban tick presence, density and Borrelia infected ticks in different habitats and seasons in three cities in southern England.

Understanding the effects of local habitat and wider landscape connectivity factors on tick presence, nymph density and Borrelia species (spp.) prevalence in the tick population is important for identifying the public health risk from Lyme borreliosis. This multi-city study collected data in three southern England cities (Bath, Bristol, and Southampton) during spring, summer, and autumn in 2017. Focusing specifically on urban green space used for recreation which were clearly in urbanised areas, 72 locations were sampled. Additionally, geospatial datasets on urban green space coverage within 250 m and 1 km of sampling points, as well as distance to woodland were incorporated into statistical models. Distance to woodland was negatively associated with tick presence and nymph density, particularly during spring and summer. Furthermore, we observed an interaction effect between habitat and season for tick presence and nymph density, with woodland habitat having greater tick presence and nymph density during spring. Borrelia spp. infected Ixodes ricinus were found in woodland, woodland edge and under canopy habitats in Bath and Southampton. Overall Borrelia spp. prevalence in nymphs was 2.8%, similar to wider UK studies assessing prevalence in Ixodes ricinus in rural areas. Bird-related Borrelia genospecies dominated across sites, suggesting bird reservoir hosts may be important in urban green space settings for feeding and infecting ticks. Whilst overall density of infected nymphs across the three cities was low (0.03 per 100 m2), risk should be further investigated by incorporating data on tick bites acquired in urban settings, and subsequent Lyme borreliosis transmission.

Urban greenspace and anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: A 20-month follow up of 19,848 participants in England.

This study examined the association between greenspace and the growth trajectories of anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from 19,848 urban residents in England who were followed for 20 months between March 2020 and October 2021, we found that living in an area with higher greenspace coverage (exposure) was associated with fewer anxiety symptoms independent of population density, area deprivation levels, socio-demographics, and health profiles. There was limited evidence that greenspace was related to the change of anxiety symptoms over time. No association with anxiety trajectories was found when considering distance to nearest greenspace (proximity), highlighting potentially differential mental health effects of simply having access to local parks and recreation areas versus living in areas of greater natural environment land cover. These findings have important implications for mental health intervention and policymaking.

Questing Ixodes ricinus ticks and Borrelia spp. in urban green space across Europe: A review.

For more than three decades, it has been recognized that Ixodes ricinus ticks occur in urban green space in Europe and that they harbour multiple pathogens linked to both human and animal diseases. Urban green space use for health and well-being, climate mitigation or biodiversity goals is promoted, often without consideration for the potential impact on tick encounters or tick-borne disease outcomes. This review synthesizes the results of over 100 publications on questing I. ricinus and Borrelia spp. infections in ticks in urban green space in 24 European countries. It presents data on several risk indicators for Lyme borreliosis and highlights key research gaps and recommendations for future studies. Across Europe, mean density of I. ricinus in urban green space was 6.9 (range; 0.1-28.8) per 100 m2 and mean Borrelia prevalence was 17.3% (range; 3.1%-38.1%). Similar density estimates were obtained for nymphs, which had a Borrelia prevalence of 14.2% (range; 0.5%-86.7%). Few studies provided data on both questing nymph density and Borrelia prevalence, but those that did found an average of 1.7 (range; 0-5.6) Borrelia-infected nymphs per 100 m2 of urban green space. Although a wide range of genospecies were reported, Borrelia afzelii was the most common in most parts of Europe, except for England where B. garinii was more common. The emerging pathogen Borrelia miyamotoi was also found in several countries, but with a much lower prevalence (1.5%). Our review highlights that I. ricinus and tick-borne Borrelia pathogens are found in a wide range of urban green space habitats and across several seasons. The impact of human exposure to I. ricinus and subsequent Lyme borreliosis incidence in urban green space has not been quantified. There is also a need to standardize sampling protocols to generate better baseline data for the density of ticks and Borrelia prevalence in urban areas.

Urban woodland habitat is important for tick presence and density in a city in England.

Urban green spaces provide an opportunity for contact between members of the public and ticks infected with pathogens. Understanding tick distribution within these areas and the drivers for increased tick density or Borrelia infection are important from a risk management perspective. This study aimed to generate data on tick presence, nymph density and Borrelia infection across a range of urban green space habitats, in order to identify those that may potentially present a higher risk of Lyme borreliosis to members of the public. Several sites were visited across the English city of Bath during 2015 and 2016. Tick presence was confirmed in all habitats surveyed, with increased likelihood in woodland and woodland edge. Highest nymph densities were also reported in these habitats, along with grassland during one of the sampling years. Adult ticks were more likely to be infected compared to nymphs, and the highest densities of infected nymphs were associated with woodland edge habitat. In addition to Lyme borreliosis causing Borrelia genospecies, Borrelia miyamotoi was also detected at several sites. This study adds to the growing evidence that urban green space habitats present a public health risk from tick bites, and this has implications for many policy areas including health and wellbeing, climate adaptation and urban green space planning.

GroundsWell: Community-engaged and data-informed systems transformation of Urban Green and Blue Space for population health - a new initiative.

Natural environments, such as parks, woodlands and lakes, have positive impacts on health and wellbeing. Urban Green and Blue Spaces (UGBS), and the activities that take place in them, can significantly influence the health outcomes of all communities, and reduce health inequalities. Improving access and quality of UGBS needs understanding of the range of systems (e.g. planning, transport, environment, community) in which UGBS are located. UGBS offers an ideal exemplar for testing systems innovations as it reflects place-based and whole society processes , with potential to reduce non-communicable disease (NCD) risk and associated social inequalities in health. UGBS can impact multiple behavioural and environmental aetiological pathways. However, the systems which desire, design, develop, and deliver UGBS are fragmented and siloed, with ineffective mechanisms for data generation, knowledge exchange and mobilisation. Further, UGBS need to be co-designed with and by those whose health could benefit most from them, so they are appropriate, accessible, valued and used well. This paper describes a major new prevention research programme and partnership, GroundsWell, which aims to transform UGBS-related systems by improving how we plan, design, evaluate and manage UGBS so that it benefits all communities, especially those who are in poorest health. We use a broad definition of health to include physical, mental, social wellbeing and quality of life. Our objectives are to transform systems so that UGBS are planned, developed, implemented, maintained and evaluated with our communities and data systems to enhance health and reduce inequalities. GroundsWell will use interdisciplinary, problem-solving approaches to accelerate and optimise community collaborations among citizens, users, implementers, policymakers and researchers to impact research, policy, practice and active citizenship. GroundsWell will be shaped and developed in three pioneer cities (Belfast, Edinburgh, Liverpool) and their regional contexts, with embedded translational mechanisms to ensure that outputs and impact have UK-wide and international application.

An ecosystem service perspective on urban nature, physical activity, and health.

Nature underpins human well-being in critical ways, especially in health. Nature provides pollination of nutritious crops, purification of drinking water, protection from floods, and climate security, among other well-studied health benefits. A crucial, yet challenging, research frontier is clarifying how nature promotes physical activity for its many mental and physical health benefits, particularly in densely populated cities with scarce and dwindling access to nature. Here we frame this frontier by conceptually developing a spatial decision-support tool that shows where, how, and for whom urban nature promotes physical activity, to inform urban greening efforts and broader health assessments. We synthesize what is known, present a model framework, and detail the model steps and data needs that can yield generalizable spatial models and an effective tool for assessing the urban nature-physical activity relationship. Current knowledge supports an initial model that can distinguish broad trends and enrich urban planning, spatial policy, and public health decisions. New, iterative research and application will reveal the importance of different types of urban nature, the different subpopulations who will benefit from it, and nature's potential contribution to creating more equitable, green, livable cities with active inhabitants.

Environmental DNA reveals links between abundance and composition of airborne grass pollen and respiratory health.

Grass (Poaceae) pollen is the most important outdoor aeroallergen,1 exacerbating a range of respiratory conditions, including allergic asthma and rhinitis ("hay fever").2-5 Understanding the relationships between respiratory diseases and airborne grass pollen with a view to improving forecasting has broad public health and socioeconomic relevance. It is estimated that there are over 400 million people with allergic rhinitis6 and over 300 million with asthma, globally,7 often comorbidly.8 In the UK, allergic asthma has an annual cost of around US$ 2.8 billion (2017).9 The relative contributions of the >11,000 (worldwide) grass species (C. Osborne et al., 2011, Botany Conference, abstract) to respiratory health have been unresolved,10 as grass pollen cannot be readily discriminated using standard microscopy.11 Instead, here we used novel environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling and qPCR12-15 to measure the relative abundances of airborne pollen from common grass species during two grass pollen seasons (2016 and 2017) across the UK. We quantitatively demonstrate discrete spatiotemporal patterns in airborne grass pollen assemblages. Using a series of generalized additive models (GAMs), we explore the relationship between the incidences of airborne pollen and severe asthma exacerbations (sub-weekly) and prescribing rates of drugs for respiratory allergies (monthly). Our results indicate that a subset of grass species may have disproportionate influence on these population-scale respiratory health responses during peak grass pollen concentrations. The work demonstrates the need for sensitive and detailed biomonitoring of harmful aeroallergens in order to investigate and mitigate their impacts on human health.

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

A call to action: Improving urban green spaces to reduce health inequalities exacerbated by COVID-19.

Health is not equally distributed across society; there are avoidable, unfair, systematic differences in health between population groups. Some of these same groups (older people, BAME communities, those with some non-communicable diseases (NCDs)) may be particularly vulnerable to risk of exposure and severe COVID-19 outcomes due to co-morbidities, structural vulnerabilities, and public-facing or health and social care jobs among other factors. Additionally, some of the restrictions designed to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread impact specifically on these same groups by limiting their activity and access to preventive or health promotion services. Greenspaces, accessed with social distancing, may mitigate some of the predicted negative health effects of COVID-19 restrictions. Maintaining or increasing publicly accessible urban greenspaces, particularly for marginalised groups, is reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals, and its importance amplified in the COVID-19 pandemic. Urban greenspaces should be considered a public health and social investment and a chance to rebalance our relationship with nature to protect against future pandemics. By investing in urban public greenspaces, additional benefits (job/food creation, biodiversity promotion, carbon sequestration) may coincide with health benefits. Realising these requires a shift in the balance of decision making to place weight on protecting, enhancing and providing more appropriate greenspaces designed with local communities. The current pandemic is a reminder that humanity placing too many pressures on nature has damaging consequences. COVID-19 economic recovery programs present an opportunity for sustainable transformation if they can be leveraged to simultaneously protect and restore nature and tackle climate change and health inequalities.

Neighbourhood greenspace and smoking prevalence: Results from a nationally representative survey in England.

OBJECTIVE: The current study investigated whether people are less likely to be smokers when they live in greener neighbourhoods, and whether such an association is attributable to lower rates of ever-smoking and/or higher rates of smoking cessation. METHOD: Using a representative sample of the adult population of England (N = 8,059), we investigated the relationships between neighbourhood greenspace and three inter-related smoking outcomes (current smoking, ever-smoking and smoking cessation). RESULTS: After controlling for a range of individual and area-level covariates, including socioeconomic status, income and education, living in the highest greenspace quartile was associated with a 20% lower prevalence of current smoking, compared to living in the lowest greenspace quartile (PR = 0.80, CI = 0.67, 0.96, p < .017). Neighbourhood greenspace was not significantly associated with ever-smoking. However, amongst ever-smokers, residing in the two highest quartiles of neighbourhood greenspace quartiles (vs. 1st quartile) was associated with a 10% and 12% higher prevalence of smoking cessation (PR = 1.10, CI = 1.02, 1.18, p = .012; PR = 1.12, CI = 1.02, 1.22, p = .016, respectively). This suggests that the association between greenspace and current smoking is due to a higher likelihood of smoking cessation, rather than lower rates of ever- smoking. The associations between greenspace, current smoking and smoking cessation were similar in magnitude to those of having high (vs. low) household income and were largely unmoderated by socioeconomic measures. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings advocate the need to protect and invest in local greenspaces, to maximise the public health benefits they may afford. Improving access to greenspace may constitute an overlooked public health strategy for reducing smoking prevalence.

Urban nature and physical activity: Investigating associations using self-reported and accelerometer data and the role of household income.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a major public health concern. Natural, or semi-natural, environments may encourage physical activity, but the influences of socio-economic factors have been under-researched. METHODS: We explored the associations between meeting physical activity (PA) guidelines and both neighbourhood green (area coverage) and blue (freshwater coverage and coastal proximity) environments for urban adults using data from the Health Survey for England [HSE] (2008/2012). We considered different domains of self-reported PA: walking (n = 18,391), sports and other exercise (n = 18,438), non-recreational (domestic/gardening/occupational; n = 18,446) and all three domains combined (n = 18,447); as well as accelerometer-derived PA data using a subsample (n = 1,774). Relationships were stratified by equivalised household income as an indicator of socio-economic status. RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates, living <5 km from the coast was associated with significantly higher odds of meeting UK 2010 guidelines through self-reported total, walking and non-recreational PA (e.g. total PA, <5 km vs. >20 km, adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) = 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15-1.39) but unrelated to sports and exercise. Greater neighbourhood greenspace, however, was only associated with significantly higher odds of meeting guidelines through non-recreational PA alone (e.g. 80-100% vs. <20% ORadj = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.12-1.56). Although associations were most consistent in the lowest income quintile, income-related results were mixed. Relationships were not replicated in the smaller accelerometry subsample. CONCLUSION: Our self-report findings for the differing domains of PA as a function of neighbourhood green and blue space broadly replicated previous research, yet the reasons for the observed differences between PA domains and environments remain unclear. We did not observe any associations between environmental variables and accelerometer-measured PA; further research with larger samples is needed.