The CATFISH study: An evaluation of a water fluoridation program in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess the effectiveness of a Water Fluoridation program on a contemporary population of children. METHODS: The study used a longitudinal prospective cohort design. In Cumbria, England, two groups of children were recruited and observed over a period of 5-6 years. The Birth Cohort consisted of families recruited from two hospitals in Cumbria where children were conceived after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The systemic and topical effects of community water fluoridation were evaluated in the Birth Cohort. The Older Cohort were approximately 5 years old and recruited from primary schools in Cumbria, shortly after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The predominantly topical effects of fluoridated water were evaluated in the Older Cohort. The primary outcome was the proportion of children with clinical evidence of caries experience in their primary (Birth Cohort) or permanent teeth (Older Cohort). Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were used for analysis. RESULTS: The final clinical examinations for the Birth Cohort involved 1444 participants (mean age 4.8 years), where 17.4% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience, compared to 21.4% in the control group. A beneficial effect of water fluoridation was observed adjusting for deprivation (a socioeconomic measure), sex, and age, (adjusted odds ratio 0.74 95% CI 0.55 to 0.98). The final Older Cohort clinical examinations involved 1192 participants (mean age 10.8 years) where 19.1% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience compared to 21.9% in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.09). For both the Birth Cohort and Older Cohort there was evidence of a beneficial effect on dmft/DMFT count (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86) and (IRR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.93) respectively. No conclusive proof was found to indicate that the effectiveness of water fluoridation differed across area deprivation quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary context of lower caries levels and widespread use of fluoride toothpaste, the impact of water fluoridation on the prevalence of caries was smaller than previous studies have reported. It is important to consider the clinical importance of the absolute reduction in caries prevalence against the use of other dental caries preventive measures.

Is Economic Evaluation and Care Commissioning Focused on Achieving the Same Outcomes? Resource-Allocation Considerations and Challenges Using England as a Case Study.

Commissioning describes the process of contracting appropriate care services to address pre-identified needs through pre-agreed payment structures. Outcomes-based commissioning (i.e., paying services for pre-agreed outcomes) shares a common goal with economic evaluation: achieving value for money for relevant outcomes (e.g., health) achieved from a finite budget. We describe considerations and challenges as to the practical role of relevant outcomes for evaluation and commissioning, seeking to bridge a gap between economic evaluation evidence and care commissioning. We describe conceptual (e.g., what are 'relevant' outcomes) alongside practical considerations (e.g., quantifying and using relevant endpoint or surrogate outcomes) and pertinent issues when linking outcomes to commissioning-based payment mechanisms, using England as a case study. Economic evaluation often focuses on a single endpoint health-focused maximand, e.g., quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), whereas commissioning often focuses on activity-based surrogate outcomes (e.g., health monitoring), as easier-to-measure key performance indicators that are more acceptable (e.g., by clinicians) and amenable to being linked with payment structures. However, payments linked to endpoint and/or surrogate outcomes can lead to market inefficiencies; for example, when surrogates do not have the intended causal effect on endpoint outcomes or when service activity focuses on only people who can achieve prespecified payment-linked outcomes. Accounting for and explaining direct links from commissioners' payment structures to surrogate and then endpoint economic outcomes is a vital step to bridging a gap between economic evaluation approaches and commissioning. Decision-analytic models could aid this but they must be designed to account for relevant surrogate and endpoint outcomes, the payments assigned to such outcomes, and their interaction with the system commissioners purport to influence.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications. RESULTS: There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

Deprivation effects on length of stay and death of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Greater Manchester.

Introduction: The World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic in March 2020. The impact of COVID-19 has not been felt equally by all regions and sections of society. The extent to which socio-demographic and deprivation factors have adversely impacted on outcomes is of concern to those looking to 'level-up' and decrease widening health inequalities. Objectives: In this paper we investigate the impact of deprivation on the outcomes for hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Greater Manchester during the first wave of the pandemic in the UK (30/12/19-2/1/21), controlling for proven risk factors from elsewhere in the literature. Methods: We fitted Negative Binomial and logistic regression models to NHS administrative data to investigate death from COVID in hospital and length of stay for surviving patients in a sample of adult patients admitted within Greater Manchester (N = 10,372, spell admission start dates from 30/12/2019 to 02/01/2021 inclusive). Results: Deprivation was associated with death risk for hospitalised patients but not with length of stay. Male sex, co-morbidities and older age was associated with higher death risk. Male sex and co-morbidities were associated with increased length of stay. Black and other ethnicities stayed longer in hospital than White and Asian patients. Period effects were detected in both models with death risk reducing over time, but the length of stay increasing. Conclusion: Deprivation is important for death risk; however, the picture is complex, and the results of this analysis suggest that the reported COVID related mortality and deprivation linked reductions in life expectancy, may have occurred in the community, rather than in acute settings. Highlights: Older age and male sex are predictive of longer hospital stays and higher death risk for hospitalised cases in this analysis.Deprivation is associated with death risk but not length of stay for hospitalised patients.Ethnicity is associated with length of stay, but not with death risk.There is a social gradient in health, but these data would suggest that once in the care of an NHS hospital in an acute health episode, outcomes are more equal.

What Are the Economic Arguments for Mandating LGBT+ Health Training for Healthcare Providers? An Economic Evaluation of the Impacts of LGBT+ Health Training on Cervical Screening.

Background: Equitable access to healthcare is a priority of many healthcare systems, aiming to ensure access is driven by need and not minority groups such as those defined by sexual orientation. However, there are healthcare areas where inequity in access across sexual orientation groups is found that are not justified based on need. Mandated LGBTQ+-specific training of the healthcare workforce may help address some barriers of access for these groups. The study aims to understand the potential economic implications for mandated LGBTQ+-specific healthcare training on the healthcare system in England, UK to inform commissioning of training provision. Methods: Cervical cancer screening was used as an exemplar case where there appears to be inequity in access for different sexual orientation groups. A decision model was developed and analysed that considered the impacts of greater uptake of screening for lesbian and bisexual women due to LGBTQ+ training. Costs took the perspective of the healthcare system and outcomes modelled were cancer cases averted in a timeframe of 5 years. Results: Based on cervical cancer screening alone, where training costs are fully attributed to this service, training would likely result in fewer cancer cases detected in the lesbian and bisexual populations, though this comes at a modest increase in healthcare sector costs, with this increase largely reflecting a greater volume of screens. Training costs do not appear to be a major component of the cost implications. Conclusions: In resource-constrained systems with increasing pressures for efficiency savings, the opportunity cost of delivering training is a realistic component of the commissioning decision. The findings in this paper provide a signal that mandated LGBTQ+ training in healthcare could lead to potentially greater outcomes and in breaking down barriers of access and could also enable the healthcare system to provide more equitable access to healthcare.

Factors affecting the experience of joined-up, continuous primary care in the absence of relational continuity: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: There is an international trend towards the at-scale provision of primary care services, with such services often provided in different settings by a clinician unfamiliar to the patient. It is often assumed that, in the absence of relational continuity, any competent clinician can deliver joined-up, continuous care if they have access to clinical notes. AIM: To explore the factors that affect the potential for providing joined-up, continuous care in a system where care is delivered away from a patient's regular practice, by a different organisation and set of staff. DESIGN AND SETTING: Case studies of two extended-access providers in the north of England. METHOD: Case studies were carried out between September 2021 and January 2022 in two sites. Data collected included observations of patient-healthcare professional interactions, interviews with staff and patients, and documentation. Analysis took place using a constant comparison approach. Data were coded. A model of the factors affecting continuity was constructed. RESULTS: The potential for joined-up, continuous care appears dependent on staff, patient, and system factors. This includes diverse elements such as the attitude of clinicians to care coordination and the ability of an organisation to retain staff. CONCLUSION: Healthcare systems increasingly rely on the assumption that any competent clinician can deliver joined-up, continuous care if they have access to clinical notes. This appears not to be the case. This study presents a model of factors affecting the patient's experience of continuity. The model needs validating in in-hours general practice and other settings.

Has the NHS national extended access scheme delivered its policy aims? A case study of two large scale extended access providers.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, NHS England mandated that all patients in England should be able to access general practice services outside of ordinary hours. While some patients would access additional hours at their own practice, others would need supra-practice level provision - that is, they would be seen in a different location and by a different care team. The policy aim was to enhance patient access to care, with a particular focus on those who work during the day. This study examines (a) how supra-practice level provision of extended access appointments for general medical problems are operationalised and (b) whether the aims of the policy are being met. METHODS: This study presents qualitative comparative case studies of two contrasting service providers offering extended access. The data collected included 30 hours of clinician-patient observations, 25 interviews with staff, managers, and commissioners, 20 interviews with patients, organisational protocols/documentation, and routinely collected appointment data. Thematic analysis ran concurrently with data gathering and facilitated the iterative adaptation of data collection. RESULTS: Three cross-cutting themes were identified: extended access is being used to bolster a struggling primary care system, extended access provides a different service to in-hours general practice, and it is difficult for extended access to provide seamless care. CONCLUSIONS: Supra-practice access models can provide effective care for most patients with straightforward issues. When ongoing management of complex problems is required, this model of patient care can be problematic.

Could diabetes prevention programmes result in the widening of sociodemographic inequalities in type 2 diabetes? Comparison of survey and administrative data for England.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) in England is a behavioural intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). How this programme affects inequalities by age, sex, limiting illnesses or disability, ethnicity or deprivation is not known. METHODS: We used multinomial and binary logistic regression models to compare whether the population with NDH at different stages of the programme are representative of the population with NDH: stages include (1) prevalence of NDH (using survey data from UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=794) and Health Survey for England (n=1383)); (2) identification in primary care and offer of programme (using administrative data from the National Diabetes Audit (n=1 267 350)) and (3) programme participation (using programme provider records (n=98 024)). RESULTS: Predicted probabilities drawn from the regressions with demographics as each outcome and dataset identifier as predictors showed that younger adults (aged under 40) (4% of the population with NDH (95% CI 2.4% to 6.5%)) and older adults (aged 80 and above) (12% (95% CI 9.5% to 14.2%)) were slightly under-represented among programme participants (2% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and 8% (95% CI 7.8% to 8.2%) of programme participants, respectively). People living in deprived areas were under-represented in eight sessions (14% (95% CI 13.7% to 14.4%) vs 20% (95% CI 16.4% to 23.6%) in the general population). Ethnic minorities were over-represented among offers (35% (95% CI 35.1% to 35.6%) vs 13% (95% CI 9.1% to 16.4%) in general population), though the proportion dropped at the programme completion stage (19% (95% CI 18.5% to 19.5%)). CONCLUSION: The DPP has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities, but may widen socioeconomic, age and limiting illness or disability-related inequalities in T2DM. While ethnic minority groups are over-represented at the identification and offer stages, efforts are required to support completion of the programme. Programme providers should target under-represented groups to ensure equitable access and narrow inequalities in T2DM.

Referral to the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme and conversion from nondiabetic hyperglycaemia to type 2 diabetes mellitus in England: A matched cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP) is a behaviour change programme for adults who are at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM): people with raised blood glucose levels, but not in the diabetic range, diagnosed with nondiabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). We examined the association between referral to the programme and reducing conversion of NDH to T2DM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cohort study of patients attending primary care in England using clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 1 April 2016 (NDPP introduction) to 31 March 2020 was used. To minimise confounding, we matched patients referred to the programme in referring practices to patients in nonreferring practices. Patients were matched based on age (≥3 years), sex, and ≥365 days of NDH diagnosis. Random-effects parametric survival models evaluated the intervention, controlling for numerous covariates. Our primary analysis was selected a priori: complete case analysis, 1-to-1 practice matching, up to 5 controls sampled with replacement. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted, including multiple imputation approaches. Analysis was adjusted for age (at index date), sex, time from NDH diagnosis to index date, BMI, HbA1c, total serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, prescription of metformin, smoking status, socioeconomic status, a diagnosis of depression, and comorbidities. A total of 18,470 patients referred to NDPP were matched to 51,331 patients not referred to NDPP in the main analysis. Mean follow-up from referral was 482.0 (SD = 317.3) and 472.4 (SD = 309.1) days, for referred to NDPP and not referred to NDPP, respectively. Baseline characteristics in the 2 groups were similar, except referred to NDPP were more likely to have higher BMI and be ever-smokers. The adjusted HR for referred to NDPP, compared to not referred to NDPP, was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.87) (p < 0.001). The probability of not converting to T2DM at 36 months since referral was 87.3% (95% CI: 86.5% to 88.2%) for referred to NDPP and 84.6% (95% CI: 83.9% to 85.4%) for not referred to NDPP. Associations were broadly consistent in the sensitivity analyses, but often smaller in magnitude. As this is an observational study, we cannot conclusively address causality. Other limitations include the inclusion of controls from the other 3 UK countries, data not allowing the evaluation of the association between attendance (rather than referral) and conversion. CONCLUSIONS: The NDPP was associated with reduced conversion rates from NDH to T2DM. Although we observed smaller associations with risk reduction, compared to what has been observed in RCTs, this is unsurprising since we examined the impact of referral, rather than attendance or completion of the intervention.

The use and impact of digital COVID-19 tracking in adult social care: a prospective cohort study of care homes in Greater Manchester.

BACKGROUND: To support proactive care during the coronavirus pandemic, a digital COVID-19 symptom tracker was deployed in Greater Manchester (UK) care homes. This study aimed to understand what factors were associated with the post-uptake use of the tracker and whether the tracker had any effects in controlling the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: Daily data on COVID-19, tracker uptake and use, and other key indicators such as staffing levels, the number of staff self-isolating, availability of personal protective equipment, bed occupancy levels, and any problems in accepting new residents were analysed for 547 care homes across Greater Manchester for the period April 2020 to April 2021. Differences in tracker use across local authorities, types of care homes, and over time were assessed using correlated effects logistic regressions. Differences in numbers of COVID-19 cases in homes adopting versus not adopting the tracker were compared via event design difference-in-difference estimations. RESULTS: Homes adopting the tracker used it on 44% of days post-adoption. Use decreased by 88% after one year of uptake (odds ratio 0.12; 95% confidence interval 0.06-0.28). Use was highest in the locality initiating the project (odds ratio 31.73; 95% CI 3.76-268.05). Care homes owned by a chain had lower use (odds ratio 0.30; 95% CI 0.14-0.63 versus single ownership care homes), and use was not associated with COVID-19 or staffing levels. Tracker uptake had no impact on controlling COVID-19 spread. Staff self-isolating and local area COVID-19 cases were positively associated with lagged COVID-19 spread in care homes (relative risks 1.29; 1.2-1.4 and 1.05; 1.0-1.1, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the COVID-19 symptom tracker in care homes was not maintained except in Locality 1 and did not appear to reduce the COVID-19 spread. COVID-19 cases in care homes were mainly driven by care home local-area COVID-19 cases and infections among the staff members. Digital deterioration trackers should be co-produced with care home staff, and local authorities should provide long-term support in their adoption and use.

Fundamental Science and Engineering Questions in Planetary Cave Exploration.

Nearly half a century ago, two papers postulated the likelihood of lunar lava tube caves using mathematical models. Today, armed with an array of orbiting and fly-by satellites and survey instrumentation, we have now acquired cave data across our solar system-including the identification of potential cave entrances on the Moon, Mars, and at least nine other planetary bodies. These discoveries gave rise to the study of planetary caves. To help advance this field, we leveraged the expertise of an interdisciplinary group to identify a strategy to explore caves beyond Earth. Focusing primarily on astrobiology, the cave environment, geology, robotics, instrumentation, and human exploration, our goal was to produce a framework to guide this subdiscipline through at least the next decade. To do this, we first assembled a list of 198 science and engineering questions. Then, through a series of social surveys, 114 scientists and engineers winnowed down the list to the top 53 highest priority questions. This exercise resulted in identifying emerging and crucial research areas that require robust development to ultimately support a robotic mission to a planetary cave-principally the Moon and/or Mars. With the necessary financial investment and institutional support, the research and technological development required to achieve these necessary advancements over the next decade are attainable. Subsequently, we will be positioned to robotically examine lunar caves and search for evidence of life within Martian caves; in turn, this will set the stage for human exploration and potential habitation of both the lunar and Martian subsurface.

A hospital-based independent domestic violence advisor service: demand and response during the Covid-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Recent UK policy has focussed on improving support for victims of domestic violence and abuse (DVA), in healthcare settings. DVA victims attending hospital are often at highest risk of harm, yet DVA support in hospitals has been inadequate. A targeted service supporting high risk DVA victims, was implemented at a hospital Trust in North West England. The service was provided by Independent Domestic Violence Advisors (IDVAs). This paper assesses the activity in the hospital-based IDVA service during the COVID-19 pandemicand addresses the research questions: What was the demand for the service? How did the service respond? What facilitated this response? METHODS: A mixed-methods study was undertaken. Quantitative data on referrals to the service were examined using simple descriptive statistics and compared to other DVA services. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with IDVAs and other hospital staff involved with the service and the data subjected to thematic analysis. RESULTS: The quantitative analysis showed that referrals dropped at the start of lockdown, then increased and continued to rise; the qualitative findings reiterated this pattern. Referrals came from a range of departments across the Trust, with the majority from A&E. Pre-pandemic, the population supported by the service included higher proportions of males and people aged 40 and over than at other IDVA services; this continued during the pandemic. The qualitative findings indicated a flexible response during the pandemic, enabled by strong working relationships and by using workarounds. CONCLUSIONS: The hospital-based IDVAs provided an efficient, flexible serviceduring the COVID-19 pandemic. Referrals increased during the first lockdown and subsequent relaxing of restrictions. Locating the IDVAs within a team working across the organisation, and building good working relationships facilitated an effective disclosure and referral route, which endured through social restrictions. The IDVAs supported high-risk victims who may otherwise not have been identified in traditional community-based DVA settings during the pandemic. Hospital-based IDVA services can broaden access by supporting vulnerable, at risk populations whose needs may not be identified at other services.

Variation in appropriate diabetes care and treatment targets in urban and rural areas in England: an observational study of the 'rule of halves'.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the 'rule of halves' for diabetes care for urban and rural areas in England using several data sources covering the period 2015-2017; and to examine the extent to which any differences in urban and rural settings are explained by population characteristics and the workforce supply of primary care providers (general practices). DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. SETTING: Populations resident in predominantly urban and rural areas in England (2015-2017). PARTICIPANTS: N=33 336 respondents to the UK Household Longitudinal Survey in urban and rural settings in England; N=4913 general practices in England reporting to the National Diabetes Audit and providing workforce data to NHS Digital. OUTCOMES: Diabetes prevalence; administrative records of diagnoses of diabetes; provision of (all eight) recommended diabetes care processes; diabetes treatment targets. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence was higher in urban areas in England (7.80% (95% CI 7.30% to 8.31%)) relative to rural areas (7.24% (95% CI 6.32% to 8.16%)). For practices in urban areas, relatively fewer cases of diabetes were recorded in administrative medical records (69.55% vs 71.86%), and a smaller percentage of those registered received the appropriate care (45.85% vs 49.32%). Among estimated prevalent cases of diabetes, urban areas have a 24.84% achieving these targets compared with 25.16% in rural areas. However, adjusted analyses showed that the performance of practices in urban areas in providing appropriate care quality was not significantly different from practices in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: The 'rule of halves' is not an accurate description of the actual pattern across the diabetes care pathway in England. More than half of the estimated urban and rural diabetes population are registered with clinical practices and have access to treatment. However, less than half of those registered for treatment have achieved treatment targets. Appropriate care quality was associated with a greater proportion of patients with diabetes achieving treatment targets.

Exploring the impact of the national extended access scheme on patient experience of and satisfaction with general practice: an observational study using the English GP Patient Survey.

BACKGROUND: Extended access services were introduced to help stop declining patient satisfaction with access to general practice. There has been no evaluation, at a practice population level, as to how the introduction of these services has impacted patients. AIM: To explore the association between practices offering extended access and patient responses to the GP Patient Survey (GPPS). DESIGN & SETTING: An observational study was carried out. Patient experience data were taken from the national GPPS in England (2018 and 2019). Data on the provision of extended access services were sourced from NHS England. The analyses considered potential confounding factors. These were sourced from publicly available data about practice characteristics from NHS Digital, NHS England, and government websites. METHOD: The percentage of patients reporting positive responses to questions related to satisfaction with access, continuity of care, and overall satisfaction were modelled. The association between these outcomes and the provision of extended access were estimated via multivariable fixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: There were no associations between practices offering extended access services and key indicators of patient experience or satisfaction at a practice population level. CONCLUSION: Extended access has a cost of an estimated 250 million GBP per year. While there is a body of work that finds associations with emergency department use reduction, at a practice population level, in this study it has been found that extended access had no measurable impact. This may be because extended access services are only used by a small number of patients, and its introduction has not significantly impacted general practices and most general practice patients.

Investigating the impact of distance on the use of primary care extended hours.

INTRODUCTION: Poor access to general practice services has been attributed to increasing pressure on the health system more widely and low satisfaction among patients. Recent initiatives in England have sought to expand access by the provision of appointments in the evening and at weekends. Services are provided using a hub model. NHS national targets mandate extended opening hours as a mechanism for increasing access to primary care, based on the assumption that unmet need is caused by a lack of appointments at the right time. However, research has shown that other factors affect access to healthcare and it may not simply be appointment availability that limits an individual's ability to access general practice services. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether distance and deprivation impact on the uptake of extended hours GP services that use a hub practice model. METHODS: We linked a dataset (N = 25,408) concerning extended access appointments covering 158 general practice surgeries in four Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) to the General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS) survey, deprivation statistics and primary care registration data. We used negative binomial regression to estimate associations between distance and deprivation on the uptake of extended hours GP services in the Greater Manchester City Region. Distance was defined as a straight line between the extended hours provider location and the patient's home practice, the English Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to determine area deprivation based upon the home practice, and familiarity was defined as whether the patient's home practice provided an extended hours service. RESULTS: The number of uses of the extended hours service at a GP practice level was associated with distance. After allowing for distance, the number of uses of the service for hub practices was higher than for non-hub practices. Deprivation was not associated with rates of use. CONCLUSION: The results indicate geographic inequity in the extended hours service. There may be many patients with unmet need for whom the extension of hours via a hub and spoke model does not address barriers to access. Findings may help to inform the choice of hub practices when designing an extended access service. Providers should consider initiatives to improve access for those patients located in practices furthest away from hub practices. This is particularly of importance in the context of closing health inequality gaps.

Do different means of recording sexual orientation affect its relationship with health and wellbeing?

Analyses of an individual's sexual orientation over time are desirable for policy evaluations and in estimating causal effects. We explore whether accounting for those who change sexual orientation over two time points, to create a measure of fluidity, produces substantially different results compared to sexual orientation measured at one time point and extrapolated to subsequent survey waves. We use seven waves of the UK Household Longitudinal Study which asked sexual orientation identity questions at two time points: waves three (2011-2013) and nine (2017-2019). Using the relationship with sexual orientation and various health outcomes as an empirical example, via a correlated random effects estimation approach, we find that the infrequent reporting of sexual orientation could over-estimate the negative impact for lesbian, gay and "other" individuals and under-estimate the negative impact for bisexuals. We further test the feasibility of the fluidity measure by examining attrition by sexual orientation identity and find small but statistically significant probabilities of attrition. Correction for attrition bias through inverse probability weighting makes little difference to the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in sexual orientation in empirical analysis and that doing so is feasible.

Did paying drugs misuse treatment providers for outcomes lead to unintended consequences for hospital admissions? Difference-in-differences analysis of a pay-for-performance scheme in England.

AIMS: To estimate how a scheme to pay substance misuse treatment service providers according to treatment outcomes affected hospital admissions. DESIGN: A controlled, quasi-experimental (difference-in-differences) observational study using negative binomial regression. SETTING: Hospitals in all 149 organisational areas in England for the period 2009-2010 to 2015-2016. PARTICIPANTS: 572 545 patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis indicating drug misuse, defined based on International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes (37 964 patients in 8 intervention areas and 534 581 in 141 comparison areas). INTERVENTION AND COMPARATORS: Linkage of provider payments to recovery outcome indicators in 8 intervention organisational areas compared with all 141 comparison organisational areas in England. Outcome indicators included: abstinence from presenting substance, abstinent completion of treatment and non-re-presentation to treatment in the 12 months following completion. MEASUREMENTS: Annual counts of hospital admissions, emergency admissions and admissions including a diagnosis indicating drugs misuse. Covariates included age, sex, ethnic origin and deprivation. FINDINGS: For 37 245 patients in the intervention areas, annual emergency admissions were 1.073 times higher during the operation of the scheme compared with non-intervention areas (95% CI = 1.049; 1.097). There were an estimated additional 3 352 emergency admissions in intervention areas during the scheme. These findings were robust to a range of secondary analyses. CONCLUSION: A programme in England from 2012 to 2014 to pay substance misuse treatment service providers according to treatment outcomes appeared to increase emergency hospital admissions.

Delayed transfers of care for older people: a wider perspective.

Delayed transfers of care (DTOC), often unhelpfully referred to as 'bed blocking', has become a byword for waste and inefficiency in healthcare systems throughout the world. An estimated 2.7 million bed days are occupied each year in England by older people no longer in need of acute treatment, estimated to cost £820 million (2014/15) in inpatient care. Policy and media attention have often been drawn to this narrative of financial waste, resulting in policy setting that directly targets the level of DTOC, but has done little to put patient health first. These figures and policies portray a misleading image of the delays as primarily of concern in terms of their financial burden on acute hospital care, with little consideration given to the quantification on patient health or wider societal impacts. In spite of the multi-factorial decision-making process that occurs for each patient discharge, current evaluation frameworks and national policy setting fail to reflect the complexity of the process. In this commentary, we interrogate the current approach to the quantification of the DTOC impact and explore how policies and evaluation methods can do more to reflect the true impact of the delays.

'Going the distance': an independent cohort study of engagement and dropout among the first 100 000 referrals into a large-scale diabetes prevention program.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes prevention programs (DPPs) are effective, in a pre-diabetic population, in reducing weight, lowering glycated hemoglobin and slowing the progression to diabetes. Little is known about the relationship between participation in DPPsand participant characteristics or service delivery. We investigated uptake and retention in England's NHS DPP, reporting on variability among patient subgroups, providers, and sites. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 99 473 adults with non-diabetic hyperglycemia referred to the English DPP between 2016 and 2017. The program seeks to change health behaviors by offering at least 16 hours of group education and exercise. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to analyze variation in uptake, retention, and completion. RESULTS: Uptake among 99 473 adults referred to the program was 56% (55 275). Among 55 275 who started the program, 34% (18 562) achieved the required dose and 22% (12 127) completed the full course. After adjustment for variation in case mix, substantial heterogeneity in uptake and retention was seen across four service providers (uptake OR 1.77 (1.33, 2.34), 4.30 (3.01, 6.15), and 1.45 (1.07, 1.97) compared with the reference provider) and between sites (uptake for typical individuals ranged from 0.32 to 0.78 across the middle 95% of sites, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.07). Higher levels of retention and completion were seen where some out-of-hours provision was offered (retention OR 1.32 (1.25, 1.39)). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first independent assessment of participation in the English DPP and the first study internationally to examine the impact of DPP service delivery on participation. When implementing a large-scale DPP, heterogeneity in service provision between different providers and sites can result in variable participation beyond that attributable to case mix, with potential consequences for effectiveness and health inequalities. Extending out-of-hours provision may improve participation in prevention programs.

Epidemiology and determinants of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and its conversion to type 2 diabetes mellitus, 2000-2015: cohort population study using UK electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES: To study the characteristics of UK individuals identified with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH) and their conversion rates to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from 2000 to 2015, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTINGS: UK primary Care Practices. PARTICIPANTS: Electronic health records identified 14 272 participants with NDH, from 2000 to 2015. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline characteristics and conversion trends from NDH to T2DM were explored. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated predictors of conversion. RESULTS: Crude conversion was 4% within 6 months of NDH diagnosis, 7% annually, 13% within 2 years, 17% within 3 years and 23% within 5 years. However, 1-year conversion fell from 8% in 2000 to 4% in 2014. Individuals aged 45-54 were at the highest risk of developing T2DM (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.25- compared with those aged 18-44), and the risk reduced with older age. A body mass index (BMI) above 30 kg/m2 was strongly associated with conversion (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.92 to 2.13-compared with those with a normal BMI). Depression (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.13), smoking (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11-compared with non-smokers) or residing in the most deprived areas (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24-compared with residents of the most affluent areas) was modestly associated with conversion. CONCLUSION: Although the rate of conversion from NDH to T2DM fell between 2010 and 2015, this is likely due to changes over time in the cut-off points for defining NDH, and more people of lower diabetes risk being diagnosed with NDH over time. People aged 45-54, smokers, depressed, with high BMI and more deprived are at increased risk of conversion to T2DM.