Biological and functional multimorbidity-from mechanisms to management.

Globally, the number of people with multiple co-occurring diseases will increase substantially over the coming decades, with important consequences for patients, carers, healthcare systems and society. Addressing this challenge requires a shift in the prevailing clinical, educational and scientific thinking and organization-with a strong emphasis on the maintenance of generalist skills to balance the specialization trends of medical education and research. Multimorbidity is not a single entity but differs quantitively and qualitatively across life stages, ethnicities, sexes, socioeconomic groups and geographies. Data-driven science that quantifies the impact of disease co-occurrence-beyond the small number of currently well-studied long-term conditions (such as cardiometabolic diseases)-can help illuminate the pathological diversity of multimorbidity and identify common, mechanistically related, and prognostically relevant clusters. Broader access to data opportunities across modalities and disciplines will catalyze vertical and horizontal integration of multimorbidity research, to enable reconfiguring of medical services, clinical trials, guidelines and research in a way that accounts for the complexity of multimorbidity-and provides efficient, joined-up services for patients.

Formal and informal science advice in emergencies: COVID-19 in the UK.

The importance of scientific advice to government gains greater recognition in emergencies but inevitably has to be done in an environment of uncertainty, with limited data and at high speed. Adapting existing structures is more effective than creating new ones in an emergency. Between emergencies, the UK has a structured scientific advice system, including Chief Scientific Advisers, scientists in government, regulatory bodies and independent expert committees, which were adapted to COVID-19 under the umbrella of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. These worked alongside networks of informal scientific advice, including internationally. Multiple sciences were needed, including from the social sciences and engineering in addition to clinical science and epidemiology, and these had to be integrated. A centrally directed clinical research programme helped provide practitioners robust evidence, with observational and interventional trials providing data for policy and testing treatments and vaccines. The scale of the emergency meant unavoidable tension between detailed work and speed, and between an integrated scientific view usable in decision-making and constructive challenge. While a final judgement of the UK scientific response will take time, everyone should be grateful to the thousands of scientists involved for the research, synthesis and advice, which improved outcomes for the public.

The impact of delayed treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria on progression to severe malaria: A systematic review and a pooled multicentre individual-patient meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Delay in receiving treatment for uncomplicated malaria (UM) is often reported to increase the risk of developing severe malaria (SM), but access to treatment remains low in most high-burden areas. Understanding the contribution of treatment delay on progression to severe disease is critical to determine how quickly patients need to receive treatment and to quantify the impact of widely implemented treatment interventions, such as 'test-and-treat' policies administered by community health workers (CHWs). We conducted a pooled individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate the association between treatment delay and presenting with SM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search using Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was initially conducted to identify studies on severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria that included information on treatment delay, such as fever duration (inception to 22nd September 2017). Studies identified included 5 case-control and 8 other observational clinical studies of SM and UM cases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and all studies were ranked as 'Good', scoring ≥7/10. Individual-patient data (IPD) were pooled from 13 studies of 3,989 (94.1% aged <15 years) SM patients and 5,780 (79.6% aged <15 years) UM cases in Benin, Malaysia, Mozambique, Tanzania, The Gambia, Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia. Definitions of SM were standardised across studies to compare treatment delay in patients with UM and different SM phenotypes using age-adjusted mixed-effects regression. The odds of any SM phenotype were significantly higher in children with longer delays between initial symptoms and arrival at the health facility (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64 for a delay of >24 hours versus ≤24 hours; p = 0.009). Reported illness duration was a strong predictor of presenting with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children, with an OR of 2.79 (95% CI:1.92-4.06; p < 0.001) for a delay of 2-3 days and 5.46 (95% CI: 3.49-8.53; p < 0.001) for a delay of >7 days, compared with receiving treatment within 24 hours from symptom onset. We estimate that 42.8% of childhood SMA cases and 48.5% of adult SMA cases in the study areas would have been averted if all individuals were able to access treatment within the first day of symptom onset, if the association is fully causal. In studies specifically recording onset of nonsevere symptoms, long treatment delay was moderately associated with other SM phenotypes (OR [95% CI] >3 to ≤4 days versus ≤24 hours: cerebral malaria [CM] = 2.42 [1.24-4.72], p = 0.01; respiratory distress syndrome [RDS] = 4.09 [1.70-9.82], p = 0.002). In addition to unmeasured confounding, which is commonly present in observational studies, a key limitation is that many severe cases and deaths occur outside healthcare facilities in endemic countries, where the effect of delayed or no treatment is difficult to quantify. CONCLUSIONS: Our results quantify the relationship between rapid access to treatment and reduced risk of severe disease, which was particularly strong for SMA. There was some evidence to suggest that progression to other severe phenotypes may also be prevented by prompt treatment, though the association was not as strong, which may be explained by potential selection bias, sample size issues, or a difference in underlying pathology. These findings may help assess the impact of interventions that improve access to treatment.

Patients with positive malaria tests not given artemisinin-based combination therapies: a research synthesis describing under-prescription of antimalarial medicines in Africa.

BACKGROUND: There has been a successful push towards parasitological diagnosis of malaria in Africa, mainly with rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs), which has reduced over-prescribing of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) to malaria test-negative patients. The effect on prescribing for test-positive patients has received much less attention. Malaria infection in endemic Africa is often most dangerous for young children and those in low-transmission settings. This study examined non-prescription of antimalarials for patients with malaria infection demonstrated by positive mRDT results, and in particular these groups who are most vulnerable to poor outcomes if antimalarials are not given. METHODS: Analysis of data from 562,762 patients in 8 studies co-designed as part of the ACT Consortium, conducted 2007-2013 in children and adults, in Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, in a variety of public and private health care sector settings, and across a range of malaria endemic zones. RESULTS: Of 106,039 patients with positive mRDT results (median age 6 years), 7426 (7.0%) were not prescribed an ACT antimalarial. The proportion of mRDT-positive patients not prescribed ACT ranged across sites from 1.3 to 37.1%. For patients under age 5 years, 3473/44,539 (7.8%) were not prescribed an ACT, compared with 3833/60,043 (6.4%) of those aged ≥ 5 years. The proportion of < 5-year-olds not prescribed ACT ranged up to 41.8% across sites. The odds of not being prescribed an ACT were 2-32 times higher for patients in settings with lower-transmission intensity (using test positivity as a proxy) compared to areas of higher transmission. mRDT-positive children in low-transmission settings were especially likely not to be prescribed ACT, with proportions untreated up to 70%. Of the 7426 mRDT-positive patients not prescribed an ACT, 4121 (55.5%) were prescribed other, non-recommended non-ACT antimalarial medications, and the remainder (44.5%) were prescribed no antimalarial. CONCLUSIONS: In eight studies of mRDT implementation in five African countries, substantial proportions of patients testing mRDT-positive were not prescribed an ACT antimalarial, and many were not prescribed an antimalarial at all. Patients most vulnerable to serious outcomes, children < 5 years and those in low-transmission settings, were most likely to not be prescribed antimalarials, and young children in low-transmission settings were least likely to be treated for malaria. This major public health risk must be addressed in training and practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Reported in individual primary studies.

UK vaccines network: Mapping priority pathogens of epidemic potential and vaccine pipeline developments.

During the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa an expert panel was established on the instructions of the UK Prime Minister to identify priority pathogens for outbreak diseases that had the potential to cause future epidemics. A total of 13 priority pathogens were identified, which led to the prioritisation of spending in emerging diseases vaccine research and development from the UK. This meeting report summarises the process used to develop the UK pathogen priority list, compares it to lists generated by other organisations (World Health Organisation, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) and summarises clinical progress towards the development of vaccines against priority diseases. There is clear technical progress towards the development of vaccines. However, the availability of these vaccines will be dependent on sustained funding for clinical trials and the preparation of clinically acceptable manufactured material during inter-epidemic periods.

Clinical and Diagnostic Features of 413 Patients Treated for Imported Strongyloidiasis at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, London.

This study describes the clinical features of a cohort of imported cases of strongyloidiasis and the performance of standard diagnostic techniques for this condition. A total of 413 cases were identified, of whom 86 had microscopically proven infection. In proven cases, 23% had normal eosinophil counts, 19% had negative Strongyloides-specific serology, and 9.3% had normal blood counts and were seronegative. Serological testing was less sensitive for returning travelers (46.2%) than for migrants (89.7%). Immunosuppression, including human T-cell lymphotropic virus 1, was significantly associated with proven infection after controlling for age, presence of symptoms, duration of infection, and eosinophilia (OR 5.60, 95% CI 1.54-20.4). Patients with proven infection had lower serology values than those diagnosed with strongyloidiasis on the basis of positive serology and eosinophilia alone (P = 0.016). Symptomatic patients were significantly younger, had a shorter presumed duration of infection, and lower serology values. These data suggest a correlation between immunologic control of strongyloidiasis and the amplitude of the humoral response.

Geographical and temporal trends and seasonal relapse in Plasmodium ovale spp. and Plasmodium malariae infections imported to the UK between 1987 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium ovale spp. and P. malariae cause illness in endemic regions and returning travellers. Far less is known about these species than P. falciparum and P. vivax. METHODS: The UK national surveillance data, collected 1987 to 2015, were collated with the International Passenger Survey and climatic data to determine geographical, temporal and seasonal trends of imported P. ovale spp. and P. malariae infection. RESULTS: Of 52,242 notified cases of malaria, 6.04% (3157) were caused by P. ovale spp. and 1.61% (841) by P. malariae; mortality was 0.03% (1) and 0.12% (1), respectively. Almost all travellers acquired infection in West or East Africa. Infection rate per travel episode fell fivefold during the study period. The median latency of P. malariae and P. ovale spp. was 18 and 76 days, respectively; delayed presentation occurred with both species. The latency of P. ovale spp. infection imported from West Africa was significantly shorter in those arriving in the UK during the West African peak malarial season compared to those arriving outside it (44 days vs 94 days, p < 0.0001), implying that relapse synchronises with the period of high malarial transmission. This trend was not seen in P. ovale spp. imported from East Africa nor in P. malariae. CONCLUSION: In West Africa, where malaria transmission is highly seasonal, P. ovale spp. may have evolved to relapse during the malarial high transmission season. This has public health implications. Deaths are very rare, supporting current guidelines emphasising outpatient treatment. However, late presentations do occur.

The Impact of Introducing Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests on Fever Case Management: A Synthesis of Ten Studies from the ACT Consortium.

Since 2010, the World Health Organization has been recommending that all suspected cases of malaria be confirmed with parasite-based diagnosis before treatment. These guidelines represent a paradigm shift away from presumptive antimalarial treatment of fever. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) are central to implementing this policy, intended to target artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) to patients with confirmed malaria and to improve management of patients with nonmalarial fevers. The ACT Consortium conducted ten linked studies, eight in sub-Saharan Africa and two in Afghanistan, to evaluate the impact of mRDT introduction on case management across settings that vary in malaria endemicity and healthcare provider type. This synthesis includes 562,368 outpatient encounters (study size range 2,400-432,513). mRDTs were associated with significantly lower ACT prescription (range 8-69% versus 20-100%). Prescribing did not always adhere to malaria test results; in several settings, ACTs were prescribed to more than 30% of test-negative patients or to fewer than 80% of test-positive patients. Either an antimalarial or an antibiotic was prescribed for more than 75% of patients across most settings; lower antimalarial prescription for malaria test-negative patients was partly offset by higher antibiotic prescription. Symptomatic management with antipyretics alone was prescribed for fewer than 25% of patients across all scenarios. In community health worker and private retailer settings, mRDTs increased referral of patients to other providers. This synthesis provides an overview of shifts in case management that may be expected with mRDT introduction and highlights areas of focus to improve design and implementation of future case management programs.

The changing aetiology of eosinophilia in migrants and returning travellers in the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, London 2002-2015: An observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Determining the cause of eosinophilia in patients returning from the tropics continues to present a diagnostic challenge. The history, symptoms and degree of eosinophilia are often poor predictors of eventual diagnosis, but helminths are an important cause. The current British Infection Association recommendations use travel history to guide investigation of eosinophilia. However the global burden of helminth disease and travel patterns have changed over the last 3 decades and guidelines based on previous epidemiology need to be reviewed in the light of current data. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with, or referred for, investigation of eosinophilia were identified prospectively. Case notes, laboratory results and electronic records were reviewed for demographic and clinical data. Patients with an eosinophil count ≥0.50 × 109/L were included, and grouped based on lifetime history of travel to: West Africa, elsewhere in Africa, and the rest of the world. Results were compared to published data from 1997 to 2002 collected at the same centre. RESULTS: Of 410 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 407 had a documented travel history. Average yearly referrals for eosinophilia fell from 58 per year between 1997 and 2002, to 33 per year (2002-2015). The proportion of eosinophilia cases diagnosed with a parasitic cause fell from 64% to 50%, and yields for all parasitological investigations fell, the largest reduction in stool microscopy (20% yield to 9%) and day bloods for microfilariae (14% yield to 3%). Strongyloides stercoralis was the commonest diagnosis overall in our cohort, accounting for 50% of the total parasites diagnosed, and was present in 38% of patients from West Africa, 19% from rest of Africa, and 34% from rest of world; a relative increase compared to previous data. Schistosomiasis is slightly less common in those who had travelled to West Africa than the rest of Africa, and overall point prevalence has fallen from 33% (1997-2002) to 17% (2002-2015). Travellers were significantly less likely than patients who had immigrated to the UK to be diagnosed with any parasite (OR 0.54 95% CI 0.378-0.778 p = 0.0009). DISCUSSION: A parasitic cause will still be found in half of people returning from the tropics with an eosinophilia, but we observed a fall in the overall prevalence of parasitic diagnoses when compared with the earlier data. This may, in part, be explained by the impact of control programmes on the prevalence of parasites globally, especially filarial disease. S. stercoralis now represents the majority of parasites diagnosed in our cohort from all continents. We identified significantly higher rates of strongyloidiasis in immigrants than returning travellers. Despite the falling yields of stool microscopy and filarial serology the current guidelines based on travel history remain relevant with adequate yield.

Use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests by community health workers in Afghanistan: cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends parasitological diagnosis of malaria before treatment, but use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) by community health workers (CHWs) has not been fully tested within health services in south and central Asia. mRDTs could allow CHWs to diagnose malaria accurately, improving treatment of febrile illness. METHODS: A cluster randomised trial in community health services was undertaken in Afghanistan. The primary outcome was the proportion of suspected malaria cases correctly treated for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed malaria and PCR negative cases receiving no antimalarial drugs measured at the level of the patient. CHWs from 22 clusters (clinics) received standard training on clinical diagnosis and treatment of malaria; 11 clusters randomised to the intervention arm received additional training and were provided with mRDTs. CHWs enrolled cases of suspected malaria, and the mRDT results and treatments were compared to blind-read PCR diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 256 CHWs enrolled 2400 patients with 2154 (89.8%) evaluated. In the intervention arm, 75.3% (828/1099) were treated appropriately vs. 17.5% (185/1055) in the control arm (cluster adjusted risk ratio: 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.40-5.77; p < 0.001). In the control arm, 85.9% (164/191) with confirmed Plasmodium vivax received chloroquine compared to 45.1% (70/155) in the intervention arm (p < 0.001). Overuse of chloroquine in the control arm resulted in 87.6% (813/928) of those with no malaria (PCR negative) being treated vs. 10.0% (95/947) in the intervention arm, p < 0.001. In the intervention arm, 71.4% (30/42) of patients with P. falciparum did not receive artemisinin-based combination therapy, partly because operational sensitivity of the RDTs was low (53.2%, 38.1-67.9). There was high concordance between recorded RDT result and CHW prescription decisions: 826/950 (87.0%) with a negative test were not prescribed an antimalarial. Co-trimoxazole was prescribed to 62.7% of malaria negative patients in the intervention arm and 15.0% in the control arm. CONCLUSIONS: While introducing mRDT reduced overuse of antimalarials, this action came with risks that need to be considered before use at scale: an appreciable proportion of malaria cases will be missed by those using current mRDTs. Higher sensitivity tests could be used to detect all cases. Overtreatment with antimalarial drugs in the control arm was replaced with increased antibiotic prescription in the intervention arm, resulting in a probable overuse of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01403350 . Prospectively registered.

Trend analysis of imported malaria in London; observational study 2000 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: We describe trends of malaria in London (2000-2014) in order to identify preventive opportunities and we estimated the cost of malaria admissions (2009/2010-2014/2015). METHODS: We identified all cases of malaria, resident in London, reported to the reference laboratory and obtained hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics. RESULTS: The rate of malaria decreased (19.4[2001]-9.1[2014] per 100,000). Males were over-represented (62%). Cases in older age groups increased overtime. The rate was highest amongst people of Black African ethnicity followed by Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi ethnicities combined (103.3 and 5.5 per 100,000, respectively). The primary reason for travel was visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in their country of origin (69%), mostly sub-Saharan Africa (92%). The proportion of cases in VFRs increased (32%[2000]-50%[2014]) and those taking chemoprophylaxis decreased (36%[2000]-14%[2014]). The overall case fatality rate was 0.3%. We estimated the average healthcare cost of malaria admissions to be just over £1 million per year. CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted that people of Black African ethnicity, travelling to sub-Saharan Africa to visit friends and relatives in their country of origin remain the most affected with also a decline in chemoprophylaxis use. Malaria awareness should focus on this group in order to have the biggest impact but may require new approaches.