A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities.

The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated wastewater-based surveillance, allowing public health to track the epidemic by monitoring the concentration of the genetic fingerprints of SARS-CoV-2 shed in wastewater by infected individuals. Wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 is still in its infancy. In particular, the quantitative link between clinical cases observed through traditional surveillance and the signals from viral concentrations in wastewater is still developing and hampers interpretation of the data and actionable public-health decisions. We present a modelling framework that includes both SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and the fate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles in the sewage system after faecal shedding by infected persons in the population. Using our mechanistic representation of the combined clinical/wastewater system, we perform exploratory simulations to quantify the effect of surveillance effectiveness, public-health interventions and vaccination on the discordance between clinical and wastewater signals. We also apply our model to surveillance data from three Canadian cities to provide wastewater-informed estimates for the actual prevalence, the effective reproduction number and incidence forecasts. We find that wastewater-based surveillance, paired with this model, can complement clinical surveillance by supporting the estimation of key epidemiological metrics and hence better triangulate the state of an epidemic using this alternative data source.

The shifting epidemiology and serotype distribution of invasive pneumococcal disease in Ontario, Canada, 2007-2017.

BACKGROUND: Ontario, Canada introduced a publicly-funded 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) for infants in 2010, replacing the 10-valent (PCV10, 2009-2010) and the 7-valent (PCV7, 2005-2009) conjugate vaccine programs; a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) has been available for older adults since 1996. We examined the epidemiology and serotype distribution of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Ontario in the context of provincial immunization programs. METHODS: We included confirmed IPD cases reported in Ontario between 2007 and 2017. We grouped serotypes according to Ontario's current immunization program (PCV13, PPV23, and non-vaccine-preventable) and calculated incidence rates (per 100,000 population) using population data. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2017, annual incidence of IPD in Ontario ranged between 7.3 and 9.7/100,000 per year. Measures of illness severity were high throughout the period of surveillance. After PCV13 program implementation in 2010, incidence due to PCV13 serotypes decreased significantly across all age groups, with the greatest reductions in children <5 years and adults ≥65 years. Conversely, incidence due to PPV23 unique serotypes increased significantly between 2007 and 2017, with the greatest increases observed in adults 50-64 years (1.4 to 3.5/100,000) and ≥65 years (2.3 to 7.2/100,000). Similar increases were observed in incidence due to non-vaccine-preventable serotypes among all age groups, except infants <1 year. Within specific serotypes, incidence due to serotypes 3 (0.42 to 0.98/100,000) and 22F (0.31 to 0.72/100,000) increased significantly between 2007 and 2017, while incidence due to serotypes 19A and 7F decreased significantly during the PCV13 period (2010-2017). CONCLUSIONS: Eight years after PCV13 implementation in Ontario, our data suggest both direct and indirect effects on serotype-specific incidence in young children and older adults. However, overall provincial rates have remained unchanged, and IPD continues to be a severe burden on the population. The rising incidence of IPD due to PPV23 unique and non-vaccine-preventable serotypes, and the growing burden of serotypes 3 and 22F, require further study.