Incidence of Type 2 diabetes among occupational classes in Sweden: a 35-year follow-up cohort study in middle-aged men.

AIMS: To assess if low occupational class was an independent predictor of Type 2 diabetes in men in Sweden over a 35-year follow-up, after adjustment for both conventional risk factors and psychological stress. METHODS: A random population-based sample of 6874 men aged 47-56 years without a history of diabetes was divided into five occupational classes and the men were followed from 1970 to 2008. Diabetes cases were identified through the Swedish inpatient and death registers. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs from competing risk regressions, cumulative incidence and conditional probabilities were calculated, after accounting for the risk of death attributed to other causes. RESULTS: A total of 907 (13%) men with diabetes were identified over 35 years with a median follow-up of 27.9 years. The cumulative incidence of diabetes, when taking into account death as a competing event, was 11% in high officials, 12% in intermediate non-manual employees, 14% in assistant non-manual employees, 14% in skilled workers, and 16% in unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Men with unskilled and semi-skilled manual occupations had a significantly higher risk of diabetes than high officials (reference) after adjustment for age, BMI, hypertension, smoking and physical activity (SHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.08-1.78). Additional adjustment for self-reported psychological stress did not attenuate the results. CONCLUSIONS: A low occupational class suggests a greater risk of Type 2 diabetes, independently of conventional risk factors and psychological stress.

Perceived stress and incidence of Type 2 diabetes: a 35-year follow-up study of middle-aged Swedish men.

AIM: To explore incident cases of diagnosed diabetes over 35 years of follow-up in relation to self-perceived stress at baseline. METHODS: This was a population-based random sample of 7251 men derived from the Primary Prevention Trial Study, aged 47-56 years at baseline and without prior history of diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke. Incident diabetes was identified from hospital discharge and death registries as principal or secondary diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the potential association between stress and diabetes. RESULTS: During a 35-year follow-up, a total of 899 men were identified with diabetes. The crude incidence was 5.2 per 1000 persons-years. At baseline, 15.5% men reported permanent stress related to conditions at work or home. After adjusting for age and competing risk of death, the estimated 35-year conditional probability of diabetes in men with permanent stress was 42.6%, compared with 31.0% for those with periodic stress and 31.2% with no stress. In age-adjusted Cox regression analysis, men with permanent stress had a higher risk of diabetes [hazard ratio 1.52 (95% CI 1.26-1.82)] compared with men with no (referent) or periodic stress [hazard ratio 1.09 (95% CI 0.94-1.27)]. The association between stress and diabetes was slightly attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for age, socio-economic status, physical inactivity, BMI, systolic blood pressure and use of anti-hypertensive medication [hazard ratio 1.45 (95% CI 1.20-1.75)]. When examining principal diagnosis of diabetes cases separately from secondary diagnoses cases, the excess risk of diabetes associated with permanent stress remained significant both in age (only) and multivariable adjusted models. CONCLUSION: Self-perceived permanent stress is an important long-term predictor of diagnosed diabetes, independently of socio-economic status, BMI and other conventional Type 2 diabetes risk factors.

High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

SUMMARY: Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were evaluated in 1,396 men and women for a period of 20 years. Serum total cholesterol was found to be an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term risk factors for osteoporotic fracture. METHODS: A population random sample of men and women aged 25-64 years (the Gothenburg WHO MONICA project, N = 1,396, 53% women) was studied prospectively. The 1985 baseline examination recorded physical activity at work and during leisure time, psychological stress, smoking habits, coffee consumption, BMI, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure, total, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fibrinogen. Osteoporotic fractures over a period of 20 years were retrieved from the Gothenburg hospital registers. Poisson regression was used to analyze the predictive power for osteoporotic fracture of each risk factor. RESULTS: A total number of 258 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 143 participants (10.2%). As expected, we found that previous fracture, smoking, coffee consumption, and lower BMI each increase the risk for osteoporotic fracture independently of age and sex. More unexpectedly, we found that the gradient of risk of serum total cholesterol to predict osteoporotic fracture significantly increases over time (p = 0.0377). CONCLUSIONS: Serum total cholesterol is an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

Factors associated with reaching 90 years of age: a study of men born in 1913 in Gothenburg, Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: Increasing numbers of people reach old age. We wanted to identify variables of importance for reaching 90 years old and determine how the predictive ability of these variables might change over time. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: All men in the city of Gothenburg born in 1913 on dates divisible by 3, which is on the 3rd, 6th, 9th etc., were included in the study. Thus, 973 men were invited, and 855 were examined in 1963 at age 50. Further examinations were made at age 54, 60 and 67. Anthropometric data, lifestyle and parental factors, blood pressure, lung function, X-ray of heart and lungs and maximum work performance were recorded. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to analyse the predictive capacity of a variable. RESULTS: A total of 111 men (13%) reached 90 years of age, men who reached 90 years were more likely at age 50 to be nonsmokers, consume less coffee, have higher socio-economic status and have low serum cholesterol levels than those who did not reach this age; however, at age 50 or 62, parents' survival was of no prognostic importance. Variables of greatest importance at higher ages were low blood pressure and measures related to good cardiorespiratory function. In multivariable analysis, including all examinations, being a nonsmoker, consuming small amounts of coffee, having high housing costs at age 50, good maximum working capacity and low serum cholesterol were related to a better chance of survival to age 90. CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of cardiovascular risk factors, high socio-economic status and good functional capacity, irrespective of parents' survival, characterize men destined to reach the age of 90.

Obesity, smoking and secular trends in cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged women: data from population studies in Göteborg from 1980 to 2003.

BACKGROUND: To study the trends in cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged city-dwelling Swedish women from 1980 to 2003. METHODS: Using cross-sectional population-based surveys, five random population samples of a total of 1915 women aged between 45 and 54 years, participating in the BEDA study in 1980, WHO MONICA studies in 1985, 1990 and 1995, and a study of 50-year-old women in 2003 were measured for the following parameters: anthropometry, serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels, smoking habits, blood pressure, physical activity and stress. RESULTS: Over almost 25 years, middle-aged women gained on average 4.4 kg in weight, with a net increase in body mass index (BMI) from 24.7 to 25.6 kg m⁻². The proportion of participants classified as obese (≥30 kg m⁻²) increased by 50% from 10.4% to 15.1%. Women who were smokers in 2003 did not have lower BMI values than nonsmokers. Mean serum cholesterol concentrations decreased markedly, whereas smoking habits did not significantly change. The prevalence of hypertension decreased by 8%, whereas that of diabetes remained stable at around 2%. Optimal risk factor status - no smoking, normotension and serum cholesterol <5 mmol l⁻¹ - was present in less than one in six women in 2003, and similar across BMI categories. CONCLUSION: The favourable decline in cholesterol levels and hypertension and the increase in leisure time physical activity were offset by an increase in obesity, triglyceride levels and experience of stress, with only a minority of participants (less than one in six) having an optimal level of risk factors with respect to smoking, serum cholesterol and hypertension in 2003. This applied also to overweight and obese women. In earlier cohorts, subjects with low BMI values were more often smokers, whereas the opposite is observed in recent cohorts. Thus, women who smoke no longer have the advantage of lower weight.

Male risk factors for hip fracture-a 30-year follow-up study in 7,495 men.

SUMMARY: Risk factors for hip fracture were studied in 7,495 randomly selected men during 30 years; 451 men had a hip fracture. High degree of leisure-time, but not work-related, physical activity, high occupational class, and high body mass index (BMI) protected against hip fracture. Smoking, tall stature, interim stroke, and dementia increased the risk. PURPOSE: The purpose was to prospectively study risk factors for hip fracture in men. METHODS: We studied midlife determinants of future hip fractures in 7,495 randomly selected men aged 46-56 years in Gothenburg, Sweden. The subjects were investigated in 1970-1973 and followed for over 30 years. Questionnaires were used regarding lifestyle factors, psychological stress, occupational class, and previous myocardial infarction, stroke, and diabetes mellitus. Alcohol problems were assessed with the aid of registers. Using the Swedish hospital discharge register, data were collected on intercurrent stroke and dementia diagnoses and on first hip fractures (X-ray-verified). RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-one men (6%) had a hip fracture. Age, tall stature, low occupational class, tobacco smoking, alcoholic intemperance, and interim stroke or dementia were independently associated with the risk of hip fracture. There were inverse associations with leisure-time physical activity, BMI, and coffee consumption. The gradient of risk for one standard deviation of multivariable risk decreased with time since measurement yet was a good alternative to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements. CONCLUSIONS: High degree of leisure-time physical activity, high occupational class, and high BMI protected against hip fracture. However, work-related physical activity was not protective. Smoking, tall stature, and interim stroke or dementia increased the risk.

Obesity and trends in cardiovascular risk factors over 40 years in Swedish men aged 50.

OBJECTIVE: To study trends over 40 years in cardiovascular risk factors in normal weight, overweight and obese men, all aged 50 when examined. Design. Cross-sectional studies of five successive cohorts of men aged 50. SETTING: City of Göteborg, Sweden. SUBJECTS: Random population samples of altogether 3251 urban Swedish men born in 1913, 1923, 1933, 1943 and 1953. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anthropometry, cardiovascular risk factors, rates of nonsmoking, normotension and serum cholesterol <5 mmol L(-1) over four decades. RESULTS: Over 40 years, there was a net increase in body mass index (BMI) from 24.8 (SD = 3.2) to 26.4 (3.7) kg m(-2) (P < 0.0001), with an increase in the prevalence of obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg m(-2)) from 6.0% in 1963 to 13.8% in 2003. Favourable trends with respect to smoking, blood pressure and serum cholesterol were observed similarly amongst normal weight, overweight and obese men. In 1963, 24% of obese men were normotensive compared to 45% in 2003, and 6% had serum cholesterol <5 mmol L(-1) compared to 34% in 2003. Compared with obese men in 1963, men who were obese in 2003 had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.39 being a nonsmoker [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.56 to 7.36], 2.67 of being normotensive (1.23 to 5.83) and having serum cholesterol <5 mmol L(-1) of 8.30 (2.37 to 29.0). However, optimal risk factor status - no smoking, normotension and total serum cholesterol <5 mmol L(-1)- was still present in less than one in six men in 2003, similar across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obese Swedish men who are now in their fifties have much lower levels of other risk factors compared with obese men 40 years ago. This could contribute to explain why coronary heart disease death rates still are falling despite increasing rates of obesity.

HDL cholesterol protects against cardiovascular disease in both genders, at all ages and at all levels of risk.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to clarify some previous inconsistencies regarding the role of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) as a CVD protective factor. METHODS: The SCORE dataset contained data on HDL-C for 104,961 individuals (45% women) without pre-existing coronary heart disease (CHD). These were from 7 pooled European prospective studies. The effect of HDL-C, both in quintiles and as a continuous variable, on risk of CVD and CHD mortality was examined, using Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking, diabetes and body mass index and stratified by gender, age group, country and category of SCORE CVD risk. RESULTS: A strong, graded, independent, inverse relationship between HDL-C and both CVD and CHD mortality was demonstrated. Adjusted hazard ratios per 0.5mmol/l increase in HDL-C were 0.60 (0.51, 0.69) and 0.76 (0.70, 0.83) in women and men, respectively for the CVD mortality endpoint. The corresponding hazard ratios were 0.53 (0.42, 0.68) and 0.79 (0.64, 0.98) in elderly women and men, respectively. The relationship was significant in all SCORE CVD risk strata and age groups. CONCLUSIONS: This multivariable analysis, the largest of its kind to date, has confirmed the inverse, independent, strong and graded relationship between HDL-C and both CVD and CHD mortality. We have clarified previous suggestions that the relationship is stronger in women and that it applies in all age groups. This is the first prospective study to demonstrate the independent relationship specifically in healthy elderly women and to show that the relationship holds at all levels of total CVD risk.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohorts

Secular changes in cardiovascular risk factors and attack rate of myocardial infarction among men aged 50 in Gothenburg, Sweden. Accurate prediction using risk models.

AIMS: Coronary risk factor changes were related to attack rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross-sectional population samples of 50-year-old men were examined every 10th year from 1963 to 2003. Attack rates of AMI were recorded from 1975 to 2004. Prevalence of smoking decreased from 56% in 1963 to 22% in 2003. Leisure time physical activity decreased (n.s.), while psychological stress remained the same. Diabetes prevalence increased from 3.6% to 6.6%. Body mass index (BMI) increased from 24.8 to 26.4 kg m(-2). Blood pressures decreased from 138.2/90.6 to 134.7/84.9 mmHg (P = 0.00001). Serum total cholesterol decreased from 6.42 to 5.50 mmol L(-1) (P = 0.0001), but serum triglycerides increased from 1.26 to 1.71 mmol L(-1) (P = 0.0001). The multivariable risk according to total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking for AMI decreased from the set value 1.0 in 1963 to 0.418. From 1975-1979 to 2000-2004 attack rates for AMI for the age groups 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 declined to 45%, 46% and 45%, respectively. The 28-day case fatality declined from 30%, 38% and 46% to 12%, 16% and 20%. CONCLUSION: The more than 50% decline in attack rate of AMI during 30 years was comparable with the decline in risk factors.

Psychosocial factors and venous thromboembolism: a long-term follow-up study of Swedish men.

BACKGROUND: The link between psychosocial factors and coronary heart disease is well established, but although effects on coagulation and fibrinolysis variables may be implicated, no population-based study has sought to determine whether venous thromboembolism is similarly related to psychosocial factors. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) is related to psychosocial factors. PATIENTS/METHODS: A stress questionnaire was filled in by 6958 men at baseline from 1970 to 1973, participants in a cardiovascular intervention trial. Their occupation was used to determine socio-economic status. RESULTS: After a maximum follow-up of 28.8 years, 358 cases of deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism were identified through the Swedish hospital discharge and cause-specific death registries. In comparison with men who, at baseline, had no or moderate stress, men with persistent stress had increased risk of pulmonary embolism [hazard ratio (HR)=1.80, 95% CI: 1.21-2.67]. After multivariable adjustment, the HR decreased slightly to 1.66 (95% CI: 1.12-2.48). When compared with manual workers, men with white-collar jobs at intermediate or high level and professionals showed an inverse relationship between occupational class and pulmonary embolism (multiple-adjusted HR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.83). Deep vein thrombosis was not significantly related to either stress or occupational class. CONCLUSION: Both persistent stress and low occupational class were independently related to future pulmonary embolism. The mechanisms are unknown, but effects on coagulation and fibrinolytic factors are likely.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Gender and regional differences in perceived job stress across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 20 years stress at work has been found to be predictive of several conditions such as coronary heart disease, high blood pressure and non-specific sick leave. The Karasek demand/control/strain concept has been the most widely used in prospective epidemiological studies. OBJECTIVES: To describe distribution in Karasek's demand/control (DC) dimensions as well as prevalence of strain in samples from different parts of Europe grouped into three regions (South, Middle, Sweden), adjusting for occupation. To describe gender differences in Karasek's DC dimensions along with strain prevalence and assess the regional stability of those differences in different occupational groups. DESIGN: The Job stress, Absenteeism and Coronary heart disease in Europe (JACE) study, a Concerted Action (Biomed I) of the European Union, is a multicentre prospective cohort epidemiological study: 38,019 subjects at work aged 35-59 years were surveyed at baseline. Standardised techniques were used for occupation coding (International Standardised Classification of Occupations) and for the DC model (Karasek scale): five items for the psychological demand and nine items for the control or decision latitude dimensions, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 34,972 subjects had a complete data set. There were important regional differences in the Karasek scales and in prevalence of strain even after adjustment for occupational class. Mean demand and control were higher in the Swedish centres when compared to two centres in Milano and Barcelona (Southern region) and values observed in four centres (Ghent, Brussels, Lille and Hoofddorp) in Middle Europe were closer to those observed in the Southern cities than to those obtained in the Swedish cities. Clerks (ISCO 4) and, more specifically, office clerks (ISCO 41) exhibited the smallest regional variation. In a multivariate model, the factor 'region' explained a small fraction of total variance. In the two Southern centres as well as in the four Middle European centres, men perceived marginally less job-demand as compared to women whereas the reverse was observed in the two Swedish centres. Differences were larger for control: men appeared to perceive more control at work than did women. In a multivariate model, gender explained a small fraction whereas occupational level explained a large fraction of the variance. CONCLUSIONS: In this standardised multicentre European study Karasek's DC model showed large gender and occupational differences whereas geographic region explained a small fraction of the total DC variance, notwithstanding large differences in labour market and working conditions as pointed out by the European Commission as recently as 2000.

Stroke and coronary heart disease in treated hypertension -- a prospective cohort study over three decades.

OBJECTIVE: To compare cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in middle-aged hypertensive men with initially nonhypertensive men derived from the same random population sample, and to study stroke morbidity in these men in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during 25-28 years of follow-up. DESIGN: Prospective, population-based observational study in men where the main intervention effort was directed towards treatment of hypertension in a special outpatient clinic. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A total of 754 hypertensive men aged 47-55 years at screening were compared with 6740 men with normal blood pressure. The hypertensive men got stepped care treatment with either beta-blockers, thiazide diuretics, or combination treatment including vasodilating agents during the whole observational period. Data on cause-specific mortality and morbidity, and all cause mortality were obtained from patient files and the national registers on mortality and hospital admissions respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline and change of cardiovascular risk factors during the first 15 years of follow-up and all cause mortality, and mortality and morbidity from stroke and coronary heart disease during 25-28 years. RESULTS: Treated hypertensive men had their blood pressure reduced with 21/15 mmHg during the first 5 years of the study and mean blood pressure levels were then rather constant. A minor reduction of serum cholesterol was also observed and a significant reduction in the prevalence of smoking. Treated hypertensive men suffered a substantial increased incidence of cardiovascular complications that escalated during the latter course of the study. Their total incidence of stroke was doubled; they had 50% more myocardial infarctions (MIs); mortality from coronary heart disease was doubled and all cause mortality was increased by a third, compared with nonhypertensive. In multiple regression analysis the incidence of stroke was significantly related to smoking and diabetes at entry and in time-dependent Cox's regression analysis it was significantly related only to smoking. There was no relationship observed between achieved systolic or diastolic blood pressure and the risk of stroke or MI nor was there any relationship between the change in blood pressure and such cardiovascular complications. CONCLUSION: In spite of a substantial reduction of their blood pressure, treated hypertensive middle-aged men had a highly increased risk of stroke, MI and mortality from coronary heart disease compared with nonhypertensive men of similar age. The increased risk of cardiovascular complications escalated during the latter course of the study.

Risk of coronary events by baseline factors during 28 years follow-up and three periods in a random population sample of men.

AIMS: To investigate the predictive value of risk factors for coronary events measured in midlife during three separate periods over a follow-up period extending through 28 years. METHODS: A total of 7437 men aged 47-55 years and free of myocardial infarction at baseline were examined. Risk of coronary events (nonfatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths) was analysed for the entire period and for 0-15, 16-21 and 22-28 years' follow-up, using age-adjusted and multiple Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Age, diabetes, elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol were all independently associated with increased risk of coronary events for the entire 28 years as well as for each of the periods. A family history of coronary events amongst fathers, mothers and siblings was independently significant for the entire follow-up period, and the risk did not decline with extended follow-up. Effort-related chest pain was a strong and independent risk factor for the first 21 years but not thereafter. The importance of smoking decreased over time and was not significantly associated with outcome during the last period. Stress was also significant for the entire 28 years, but in selected periods only up to 21 years. Body mass index, low physical activity and low social class were inconsistently or not at all related to outcome in multiple analyses.

Increased levels of triglycerides, BMI and blood pressure and low physical activity increase the risk of diabetes in Swedish women. A prospective 18-year follow-up of the BEDA study.

AIM: To investigate risk factors for the development of diabetes in middle-aged women. METHODS: A random population sample of 1351 women without prior diabetes or cardiovascular disease, aged 39-65 years, took part in a screening study in 1979-1981 with questionnaires, physical examination and blood sampling. Development of diabetes up to 1998 was identified at a second examination in 1997-1998. RESULTS: Seventy-three women (5.4%) were diagnosed with diabetes during follow-up. As expected, obesity resulted in a rising age-adjusted risk with hazards ratio 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3, 8.1] at body mass index (BMI) 24-27 kg/m(2), and 8.3 (3.5, 19.7), at BMI > or = 27, compared with BMI < 22 kg/m(2). S-triglycerides (TG) carried a steeply increasing age-adjusted risk with hazards ratio 4.0 (95% CI 2.1, 7.6) already at s-TG 1.0-1.4 mmol/l, 7.1 (3.6, 14.0) at s-TG 1.5-1.9 mmol/l and 9.3 (4.3, 20.2) at s-TG > or = 2.0 mmol/l compared with s-TG < 1.0 mmol/l. Increasing systolic blood pressure (SBP) to 130-144, 145-159 and > or = 160 mmHg escalated the hazards ratio of diabetes to 1.6 (0.8, 3.3), 3.6 (1.7, 7.4) and 5.6 (2.7, 11.4), respectively, compared with SBP < 130 mmHg. Also, low physical activity predicted diabetes, with hazards ratio 2.1 (1.3, 3.3) for sedentary compared with non-sedentary activity. Smoking was not associated with increased risk of diabetes. After adjustment for BMI, SBP and physical activity, increasing TG level remained a strong and significant risk factor for diabetes [hazards ratio 3.0 (1.6, 5.7), 3.7 (1.8, 7.7) and 4.5 (2.0, 10.0), P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Among middle-aged Swedish women even very slightly elevated s-TG resulted in a considerably enhanced risk of developing diabetes, which was independent of age, BMI, blood pressure and physical activity.

Coffee and incidence of diabetes in Swedish women: a prospective 18-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the long-term incidence of diabetes in relation to coffee consumption in Swedish women. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: City of Göteborg, Sweden. SUBJECTS: A random population sample of 1361 women, aged 39-65 years, without prior diabetes or cardiovascular disease took part in a screening study in 1979-1981 with questionnaires, physical examination and blood sampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The development of diabetes until 1999 was identified by questionnaires in a second screening and the Swedish hospital discharge register. RESULTS: Altogether, there were 74 new cases of diabetes. The risk of developing diabetes was 475 per 100 000 person-years in women who consumed two cups of coffee or less per day, 271 in women who consumed three to four cups per day, 202 with a consumption of five to six cups per day, and 267 in drinkers of seven cups or more per day. Associated hazard ratios, after adjustment for age, smoking, low physical activity, education and body mass index were 0.55 (0.32-0.95), 0.39 (0.20-0.77) and 0.48 (0.22-1.06) for daily consumption of three to four, five to six and seven cups or more, respectively, with a consumption of less than two per day as reference. Additional adjustment for serum cholesterol and triglycerides attenuated the relation between coffee and diabetes slightly, indicating a possible mediating effect on the effect of coffee by serum lipids. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the present study support the hypothesis that coffee consumption protects from the development of diabetes in women.