South African healthcare reforms towards universal healthcare - where to next?

The National Assembly approval of the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill represents an important milestone, but there are many uncertainties concerning its implementation and timeline. The challenges faced by the South African healthcare system are huge, and we cannot afford to wait for NHI to address them all. It is critical that the process of strengthening the health system to advance universal healthcare (UHC) begins now, and there are several viable initiatives that can be implemented without delay. This article examines potential scenarios after the Bill is passed and ways in which UHC could be advanced. It begins with an overview of the trajectory of health system reform since 1994, then examines the scenarios that may emerge once the Bill is passed by Parliament and makes a case for finding ways in which UHC could be advanced within the country, regardless of any legal or financial barriers that may delay or limit NHI implementation.

MASI, a Smartphone App to Improve Treatment Adherence Among South African Adolescents and Young Adults With HIV: Protocol for a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents and young adults with HIV repeatedly demonstrate low rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence as well as low rates of viral suppression. Digital health interventions are a promising way to engage adolescents and young adults with HIV to support ART adherence. However, few digital health interventions have been developed and tested with adolescents and young adults in countries like South Africa, where the HIV burden among adolescents and young adults is greatest. Masakhane Siphucule Impilo Yethu (MASI; Xhosa for "Let's empower each other and improve our health") is a comprehensive ART adherence-supporting app for South African adolescents and young adults with HIV. It was culturally adapted using the HealthMpowerment platform. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to describe the protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial examining the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of MASI on self-reported ART adherence and social support. METHODS: We will enroll 50 adolescents and young adults with HIV ages 15-21 years. Participants will be recruited from public ART clinics linked to a large government-funded teaching hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants will be randomized 1:1 into either the intervention arm receiving a full version of MASI or the control arm receiving an information-only version of the app (n=25 per arm). Participants will be asked to engage with MASI daily for 6 months. All participants will complete baseline and follow-up assessments at 3 and 6 months. RESULTS: Study screening began in May 2022 and the first participant was enrolled on June 21, 2022. As of June 12, 2023, 81 participants have completed screeners, and 36 eligible participants have been enrolled in the pilot randomized controlled trial. Recruitment is anticipated to last through August 31, 2023, with study activities anticipated through February 29, 2024. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for innovative interventions to improve ART adherence among adolescents and young adults in settings like South Africa. If found to be feasible and acceptable, MASI could be implemented with adolescents and young adults with HIV in other parts of the country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04661878; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT04661878. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/47137.

Interventions to Improve Adolescent HIV Care Outcomes.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review of recent studies evaluating interventions to improve HIV care outcomes among adolescents with HIV (AHIV) was conducted to provide a comprehensive overview of the recent evidence, highlight promising approaches, and suggest directions for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Our scoping review revealed 65 studies evaluating a variety of interventions and using a range of study designs at various stages of research. Effective approaches included community-based, integrated service delivery models with case management, trained community adolescent treatment supporters, and consideration of social determinants of health. Recent evidence also supports the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of other innovative approaches, including mental health interventions as well as technology-delivered approaches; however, more research is needed to build the evidence base for these interventions. Our review's findings suggest that interventions providing comprehensive, individualized support are essential to improving HIV care outcomes among adolescents. More research is needed to build the evidence base for such interventions and ensure effective, equitable implementation to support the global target of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

The effect of a novel, digital physical activity and emotional well-being intervention on health-related quality of life in people with chronic kidney disease: trial design and baseline data from a multicentre prospective, wait-list randomised controlled trial (kidney BEAM).

BACKGROUND: Physical activity and emotional self-management has the potential to enhance health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but few people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have access to resources and support. The Kidney BEAM trial aims to evaluate whether an evidence-based physical activity and emotional wellbeing self-management programme (Kidney BEAM) leads to improvements in HRQoL in people with CKD. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentre, randomised waitlist-controlled trial, with health economic analysis and nested qualitative studies. In total, three hundred and four adults with established CKD were recruited from 11 UK kidney units. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention (Kidney BEAM) or a wait list control group (1:1). The primary outcome was the between-group difference in Kidney Disease Quality of Life (KDQoL) mental component summary score (MCS) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes included the KDQoL physical component summary score, kidney-specific scores, fatigue, life participation, depression and anxiety, physical function, clinical chemistry, healthcare utilisation and harms. All outcomes were measured at baseline and 12 weeks, with long-term HRQoL and adherence also collected at six months follow-up. A nested qualitative study explored experience and impact of using Kidney BEAM. RESULTS: 340 participants were randomised to Kidney BEAM (n = 173) and waiting list (n = 167) groups. There were 96 (55%) and 89 (53%) males in the intervention and waiting list groups respectively, and the mean (SD) age was 53 (14) years in both groups. Ethnicity, body mass, CKD stage, and history of diabetes and hypertension were comparable across groups. The mean (SD) of the MCS was similar in both groups, 44.7 (10.8) and 45.9 (10.6) in the intervention and waiting list groups respectively. CONCLUSION: Results from this trial will establish whether the Kidney BEAM self management programme is a cost-effective method of enhancing mental and physical wellbeing of people with CKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04872933. Registered 5th May 2021.

Can digital health apps provide patients with support to promote structured diabetes education and ongoing self-management? A real-world evaluation of myDiabetes usage.

Objective: Structured diabetes education has evidenced benefits yet reported uptake rates for those referred to traditional in-person programmes within 12 months of diagnosis were suboptimal. Digital health interventions provide a potential solution to improve diabetes education delivery at population scale, overcoming barriers identified with traditional approaches. myDiabetes is a cloud-based interactive digital health self-management app. This evaluation analysed usage data for people with type 2 diabetes focusing on digital structured diabetes education. Methods: Descriptive quantitative analyses were conducted on existing anonymised user data over 12 months (November 2019-2020) to evaluate whether digital health can provide additional support to deliver diabetes education. Data was divided into two equal 6-month periods. As this overlapped the onset of COVID-19, analyses of its effect on usage were included as a secondary outcome. All data was reported via myDiabetes. Users were prescribed myDiabetes by National Health Service healthcare primary care teams. Those who registered for app use within the study period (n = 2783) were assessed for eligibility (n = 2512) and included if activated. Results: Within the study period, n = 1245/2512 (49.6%) registered users activated myDiabetes. No statistically significant differences were observed between gender (p = 0.721), or age (p = 0.072) for those who activated (59.2 years, SD 12.93) and those who did not activate myDiabetes (57.6 years, SD 13.77). Activated users (n = 1119/1245 (89.8%)) viewed 11,572 education videos. No statistically significant differences were observed in education video views across age groups (p = 0.384), gender (p = 0.400), diabetes treatment type (p = 0.839) or smoking status (p = 0.655). Comparison of usage pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 showed statistically significant increases in app activity (p ≤0.001). Conclusion: Digital health is rapidly evolving in its role of supporting patients to self-manage. Since COVID-19 the benefits of digital technology have become increasingly recognised. There is potential for increasing diabetes education rates by offering patients a digital option in combination with traditional service delivery which should be substantiated through future research.

Surgical outcomes of laparoscopic total extraperitoneal (TEP) inguinal hernia repair compared with Lichtenstein tension-free open mesh inguinal hernia repair: A prospective randomized study.

Inguinal hernia repair is one of the most frequently performed surgery. The ideal procedure for inguinal hernia repair remains controversial. Open Lichtenstein tension-free mesh repair (LMR) is one of the most preferred open techniques with satisfactory outcomes. Laparoscopic approach in inguinal hernia surgery remains controversial, especially in comparison with open procedures. In this study, we have reported a comparison of laparoscopic total extraperitoneal (TEP) inguinal hernia repair with LMR. Postoperative pain, operative time, complications like seroma, wound infection, chronic groin pain, and recurrence rate were parameters to evaluate the outcome. One hundred seventy-four patients were included in the study by consecutive randomized prospective sampling. The patients were divided into 2 groups: group A, laparoscopic TEP inguinal hernia repair, and group B, LMR. The procedures were performed by experienced surgeons. The primary outcomes were evaluated based on postoperative pain and recurrence rate. Secondary outcomes considered for evaluation were operative time, complications like seroma, infection, and chronic groin pain. Severe pain was reported in group A (7.9%) compared to group B (15.1%), which was statistically significant (P < .001). Moderate pain was reported more in group B (70.9%) compared to group A (29.5%) (P < .001). The mean operative time in group A was 84.6 ± 32.2, which was significantly higher than that in group B, 59.2 ± 14.8. There was no major complication in both groups. The chronic pain postoperatively was significantly in higher number of patients in group B vs group A (22.09% vs 3.4%). The postoperative hospital stay period was significantly lesser for group A vs for group B (2.68 ± 1.52 vs 3.86 ± 6.16). Time duration taken to resume normal activities was significantly lower in group A (13.6 ± 6.8) vs (19.8 ± 4.6) in group B (P < .001). Although there is definite evidence of longer operative time and learning curve, laparoscopic TEP has added advantages like less postoperative pain, early resumption of normal activities, less chronic groin pain, and comparable recurrence rate compared to open Lichtenstein repair. Laparoscopic TEP can be performed with acceptable outcomes and less postoperative complications if performed by experienced hands.

Identifying stressor criteria that hinder or challenge junior clinical medical student learning.

INTRODUCTION: What makes something a stressor within clinical students' education is unclear. Medical students moving from a predominantly protected classroom environment to a situated-work environment provided an ideal transition point to explore the criteria that might make a learning experience a stressor and whether these stressors hinder or challenge learning. METHOD: Data on the stressors associated with learning experiences in clinical education were collected from New Zealand undergraduate medical students. Free text comments, in a survey-based questionnaire were supplemented by focus group data. Using inductive thematic analysis with grounded theory, themes were generated about the characteristics of stressors; referred to here as stressor criteria. These stressor criteria were then classified according to their impact on perceived learning. RESULTS: Under the broad headings of the nature of the learning task, external factors, internal factors, and social interaction; 12 stressor criteria groupings were defined. Some of these criteria were a positive challenge to learning (e.g. legitimacy of the task, novelty of the learning, social interactions) and others a hindrance. DISCUSSION: Not all stressors hinder learning. Instead, and depending on their nature, many result in perceived assistance to learning. Stressors hindering learning need to be recognised by the teacher, especially those that can be converted from a hindrance to an assistance.

Complete Stokes vector analysis with a compact, portable rotating waveplate polarimeter.

Accurate calibration of polarization-dependent optical elements is often necessary in optics experiments. A versatile polarimeter device to measure the polarization state of light is a valuable tool in these experiments. Here, we report a rotating waveplate-based polarimeter capable of complete Stokes vector analysis of collimated light. Calibration of the device allows accurate measurements over a range of wavelengths, with a bandwidth of >30 nm in this implementation. A photo-interrupter trigger system supplies the phase information necessary for full determination of the Stokes vector. An Arduino microcontroller performs rapid analysis and displays the results on a liquid crystal display. The Arduino can also be interfaced with a computer to store time series of Stokes vectors. The optical measurement apparatus of the polarimeter is compact and can be placed anywhere on an optical table on a single standard post. The components to construct the device are only a fraction of the cost of commercially available devices, while the accuracy and precision of the measurements are of the same order of magnitude.

Unravelling the mechanisms driving multimorbidity in COPD to develop holistic approaches to patient-centred care.

COPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Multimorbidity is common in COPD patients and a key modifiable factor, which requires timely identification and targeted holistic management strategies to improve outcomes and reduce the burden of disease.We discuss the use of integrative approaches, such as cluster analysis and network-based theory, to understand the common and novel pathobiological mechanisms underlying COPD and comorbid disease, which are likely to be key to informing new management strategies.Furthermore, we discuss the current understanding of mechanistic drivers to multimorbidity in COPD, including hypotheses such as multimorbidity as a result of shared common exposure to noxious stimuli (e.g. tobacco smoke), or as a consequence of loss of function following the development of pulmonary disease. In addition, we explore the links to pulmonary disease processes such as systemic overspill of pulmonary inflammation, immune cell priming within the inflamed COPD lung and targeted messengers such as extracellular vesicles as a result of local damage as a cause for multimorbidity in COPD.Finally, we focus on current and new management strategies which may target these underlying mechanisms, with the aim of holistic, patient-centred treatment rather than single disease management.

Risk factors for persistent abnormality on chest radiographs at 12-weeks post hospitalisation with PCR confirmed COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The long-term consequences of COVID-19 remain unclear. There is concern a proportion of patients will progress to develop pulmonary fibrosis. We aimed to assess the temporal change in CXR infiltrates in a cohort of patients following hospitalisation for COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre prospective cohort study of patients admitted to University Hospital Southampton with confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection between 20th March and 3rd June 2020. Patients were approached for standard-of-care follow-up 12-weeks after hospitalisation. Inpatient and follow-up CXRs were scored by the assessing clinician for extent of pulmonary infiltrates; 0-4 per lung (Nil = 0, < 25% = 1, 25-50% = 2, 51-75% = 3, > 75% = 4). RESULTS: 101 patients with paired CXRs were included. Demographics: 53% male with a median (IQR) age 53.0 (45-63) years and length of stay 9 (5-17.5) days. The median CXR follow-up interval was 82 (77-86) days with median baseline and follow-up CXR scores of 4.0 (3-5) and 0.0 (0-1) respectively. 32% of patients had persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. In multivariate analysis length of stay (LOS), smoking-status and obesity were identified as independent risk factors for persistent CXR abnormality. Serum LDH was significantly higher at baseline and at follow-up in patients with CXR abnormalities compared to those with resolution. A 5-point composite risk score (1-point each; LOS ≥ 15 days, Level 2/3 admission, LDH > 750 U/L, obesity and smoking-status) strongly predicted risk of persistent radiograph abnormality (0.81). CONCLUSION: Persistent CXR abnormality 12-weeks post COVID-19 was common in this cohort. LOS, obesity, increased serum LDH, and smoking-status were risk factors for radiograph abnormality. These findings require further prospective validation.

Defining trajectories of response in patients with psoriasis treated with biologic therapies.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of biologic therapies for psoriasis are significantly compromised by variable treatment responses. Thus, more precise management of psoriasis is needed. OBJECTIVES: To identify subgroups of patients with psoriasis treated with biologic therapies, based on changes in their disease activity over time, that may better inform patient management. METHODS: We applied latent class mixed modelling to identify trajectory-based patient subgroups from longitudinal, routine clinical data on disease severity, as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI), from 3546 patients in the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register, as well as in an independent cohort of 2889 patients pooled across four clinical trials. RESULTS: We discovered four discrete classes of global response trajectories, each characterized in terms of time to response, size of effect and relapse. Each class was associated with differing clinical characteristics, e.g. body mass index, baseline PASI and prevalence of different manifestations. The results were verified in a second cohort of clinical trial participants, where similar trajectories following the initiation of biologic therapy were identified. Further, we found differential associations of the genetic marker HLA-C*06:02 between our registry-identified trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: These subgroups, defined by change in disease over time, may be indicative of distinct endotypes driven by different biological mechanisms and may help inform the management of patients with psoriasis. Future work will aim to further delineate these mechanisms by extensively characterizing the subgroups with additional molecular and pharmacological data.

Relationships among perceived learning, challenge and affect in a clinical context.

BACKGROUND: Challenge, sometimes perceived as stress, may be beneficial or detrimental to learning but the circumstances when it may be beneficial are not clear. This study looks at the association of challenge with perceived learning and how this might be influenced by affect, context or the type of learning. METHOD: The participants, medical students in their first years of experiential clinical exposure, rated specified learning episodes (LEs) on the perceived learning (low to high), challenge (low to high) and affect (feeling positive to negative). Such learning episodes were self-identified or identified by course organisers. Correlations, using Kendall's tau-b test, were conducted to explore the associations among learning, challenge and affect. In the second stage the types of LEs were then thematically classified in order to determine those that were positive for learning and challenging and/or associated with positive affect. RESULT: There were positive correlations between perceived learning and challenge, and between perceived learning and affect for both types of LEs. The circumstances in which challenge (stress) promoted learning were authentic environments, authentic tasks and simulated clinical activities; most requiring a degree of social interaction. CONCLUSION: Challenge and positive affect are beneficial in the perception of discrete learning, but are two separate constructs. Ideally both challenge and affect need to operate alongside authentic supportive clinical activities, that by their nature involve others, to maximise perceived learning.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive care for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: experience from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Given projected shortages of critical care capacity in public hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government embarked on an initiative to purchase this capacity from private hospitals. In order to inform purchasing decisions, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of intensive care management for admitted COVID-19 patients across the public and private health systems in South Africa. METHODS: Using a modelling framework and health system perspective, costs and health outcomes of inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in (1) general ward and intensive care (GW + ICU) versus (2) general ward only (GW) were assessed. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were evaluated and the cost per admission in public and private sectors was determined. The model made use of four variables: mortality rates, utilisation of inpatient days for each management approach, disability weights associated with severity of disease, and the unit cost per general ward day and per ICU day in public and private hospitals. Unit costs were multiplied by utilisation estimates to determine the cost per admission. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) - representing difference in costs and health outcomes of the two management strategies - was compared to a cost-effectiveness threshold to determine the value for money of expansion in ICU services during COVID-19 surges. RESULTS: A cost per admission of ZAR 75,127 was estimated for inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in GW as opposed to ZAR 103,030 in GW + ICU. DALYs were 1.48 and 1.10 in GW versus GW + ICU, respectively. The ratio of difference in costs and health outcomes between the two management strategies produced an ICER of ZAR 73,091 per DALY averted, a value above the cost-effectiveness threshold of ZAR 38,465. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicated that purchasing ICU capacity from the private sector during COVID-19 surges may not be a cost-effective investment. The 'real time', rapid, pragmatic, and transparent nature of this analysis demonstrates an approach for evidence generation for decision making relating to the COVID-19 pandemic response and South Africa's wider priority setting agenda.

Muscle architecture and morphology as determinants of explosive strength.

PURPOSE: Neural drive and contractile properties are well-defined physiological determinants of explosive strength, the influence of muscle architecture and related morphology on explosive strength is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between Quadriceps muscle architecture (pennation angle [ΘP] and fascicle length [FL]) and size (e.g., volume; QVOL), as well as patellar tendon moment arm (PTMA) with voluntary and evoked explosive knee extension torque in 53 recreationally active young men. METHOD: Following familiarisation, explosive voluntary torque at 50 ms intervals from torque onset (T50, T100, T150), evoked octet at 50 ms (8 pulses at 300-Hz; evoked T50), as well as maximum voluntary torque, were assessed on two occasions with isometric dynamometry. B-mode ultrasound was used to assess ΘP and FL at ten sites throughout the quadriceps (2-3 sites) per constituent muscle. Muscle size (QVOL) and PTMA were quantified using 1.5 T MRI. RESULT: There were no relationships with absolute early phase explosive voluntary torque (≤ 50 ms), but θP (weak), QVOL (moderate to strong) and PTMA (weak) were related to late phase explosive voluntary torque (≥ 100 ms). Regression analysis revealed only QVOL was an independent variable contributing to the variance in T100 (34%) and T150 (54%). Evoked T50 was also related to QVOL and θP. When explosive strength was expressed relative to MVT there were no relationships observed. CONCLUSION: It is likely that the weak associations of θP and PTMA with late phase explosive voluntary torque was via their association with MVT/QVOL rather than as a direct determinant.

The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank Dementia e-cohort (SAIL-DeC).

INTRODUCTION: The rising burden of dementia is a global concern, and there is a need to study its causes, natural history and outcomes. The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank contains anonymised, routinely-collected healthcare data for the population of Wales, UK. It has potential to be a valuable resource for dementia research owing to its size, long follow-up time and prospective collection of data during clinical care. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to apply reproducible methods to create the SAIL dementia e-cohort (SAIL-DeC). We created SAIL-DeC with a view to maximising its utility for a broad range of research questions whilst minimising duplication of effort for researchers. METHODS: SAIL contains individual-level, linked primary care, hospital admission, mortality and demographic data. Data are currently available until 2018 and future updates will extend participant follow-up time. We included participants who were born between 1st January 1900 and 1st January 1958 and for whom primary care data were available. We applied algorithms consisting of International Classification of Diseases (versions 9 and 10) and Read (version 2) codes to identify participants with and without all-cause dementia and dementia subtypes. We also created derived variables for comorbidities and risk factors. RESULTS: From 4.4 million unique participants in SAIL, 1.2 million met the cohort inclusion criteria, resulting in 18.8 million person-years of follow-up. Of these, 129,650 (10%) developed all-cause dementia, with 77,978 (60%) having dementia subtype codes. Alzheimer's disease was the most common subtype diagnosis (62%). Among the dementia cases, the median duration of observation time was 14 years. CONCLUSION: We have created a generalisable, national dementia e-cohort, aimed at facilitating epidemiological dementia research.

Symptom-burden in people living with frailty and chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is independently associated with worse health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relationship between frailty and symptom experience is not well described in people living with CKD. This study's aim was to evaluate the relationship between frailty and symptom-burden in CKD. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional observational study, the QCKD study (ISRCTN87066351), in which participants completed physical activity, cardiopulmonary fitness, symptom-burden and HRQOL questionnaires. A modified version of the Frailty Phenotype, comprising 3 self-report components, was created to assess frailty status. Multiple linear regression was performed to assess the association between symptom-burden/HRQOL and frailty. Logistic regression was performed to assess the association between experiencing symptoms frequently and frailty. Principal Component Analysis was used to assess the experienced symptom clusters. RESULTS: A total of 353 patients with CKD were recruited with 225 (64%) participants categorised as frail. Frail participants reported more symptoms, had higher symptom scores and worse HRQOL scores. Frailty was independently associated with higher total symptom score and lower HRQOL scores. Frailty was also independently associated with higher odds of frequently experiencing 9 out of 12 reported symptoms. Finally, frail participants experienced an additional symptom cluster that included loss of appetite, tiredness, feeling cold and poor concentration. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is independently associated with high symptom-burden and poor HRQOL in CKD. Moreover, people living with frailty and CKD have a distinctive symptom experience. Proactive interventions are needed that can effectively identify and address problematic symptoms to mitigate their impact on HRQOL.

Inflammatory phenotyping predicts clinical outcome in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 760,000 deaths worldwide (correct as of 16th August 2020). Studies suggest a hyperinflammatory response is a major cause of disease severity and death. Identitfying COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammation may identify subgroups who could benefit from targeted immunomodulatory treatments. Analysis of cytokine levels at the point of diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection can identify patients at risk of deterioration. METHODS: We used a multiplex cytokine assay to measure serum IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß, GM-CSF, IL-10, IL-33 and IFN-γ in 100 hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 at admission to University Hospital Southampton (UK). Demographic, clinical and outcome data were collected for analysis. RESULTS: Age > 70 years was the strongest predictor of death (OR 28, 95% CI 5.94, 139.45). IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß and IL-33 were significantly associated with adverse outcome. Clinical parameters were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.71), addition of a combined cytokine panel significantly improved the predictability (AUROC 0.85). In those ≤70 years, IL-33 and TNF were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.83 and 0.84), addition of a combined cytokine panel demonstrated greater predictability of poor outcome than clinical parameters alone (AUROC 0.92 vs 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: A combined cytokine panel improves the accuracy of the predictive value for adverse outcome beyond standard clinical data alone. Identification of specific cytokines may help to stratify patients towards trials of specific immunomodulatory treatments to improve outcomes in COVID-19.

The Competition Commission Health Market Inquiry Report: An overview and key imperatives.

The Competition Commission's Health Market Inquiry (HMI) is the most systematic and comprehensive investigation carried out into the South African private health sector. The recommendations as set out in the HMI Final Report merit extensive discussion and debate, as they could - if implemented - have far-reaching consequences for the future of the healthcare system. The objective of this article is to contribute to this discussion by providing an overview of the key findings and recommendations of the HMI and highlighting the resultant key imperatives at this critical juncture of policy development.

Managing the healthcare demand-supply gap during and after COVID-19: The need to review the approach to healthcare priority-setting in South Africa.

Healthcare demands are rising globally, and regardless of the approach to financing and delivering healthcare services, no country can meet all the healthcare demands of its population. The demand-supply gap for healthcare services in South Africa (SA) is large, particularly for the public sector. The objectives of this article are to examine some of the underlying factors contributing to this gap, and how the COVID- 19 pandemic is likely to impact on them, and to describe why SA needs to adopt an explicit and equity-informed approach to healthcare priority-setting to assist in managing the gap.