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1.
Nutrients ; 16(13)2024 Jun 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38999798

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: One-carbon metabolism coenzymes may influence brain aging in cognitively unimpaired adults. METHODS: Baseline data were used from the UK Biobank cohort. Estimated intake of vitamin B6, B12, and folate was regressed onto neural network functional connectivity in five resting-state neural networks. Linear mixed models tested coenzyme main effects and interactions with Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk factors. RESULTS: Increased B6 and B12 estimated intake were linked with less functional connectivity in most networks, including the posterior portion of the Default Mode Network. Conversely, higher folate was related to more connectivity in similar networks. AD family history modulated these associations: Increased estimated intake was positively associated with stronger connectivity in the Primary Visual Network and Posterior Default Mode Network in participants with an AD family history. In contrast, increased vitamin B12 estimated intake was associated with less connectivity in the Primary Visual Network and the Cerebello-Thalamo-Cortical Network in those without an AD family history. CONCLUSIONS: The differential patterns of association between B vitamins and resting-state brain activity may be important in understanding AD-related changes in the brain. Notably, AD family history appears to play a key role in modulating these relationships.


Asunto(s)
Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Ácido Fólico , Vitamina B 12 , Vitamina B 6 , Humanos , Ácido Fólico/administración & dosificación , Vitamina B 12/administración & dosificación , Masculino , Reino Unido , Vitamina B 6/administración & dosificación , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Encéfalo/metabolismo , Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Red Nerviosa , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Biobanco del Reino Unido
2.
Alzheimers Dement (Amst) ; 16(2): e12595, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38860031

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Aging is often associated with cognitive decline. Understanding neural factors that distinguish adults in midlife with superior cognitive abilities (Positive-Agers) may offer insight into how the aging brain achieves resilience. The goals of this study are to (1) introduce an optimal labeling mechanism to distinguish between Positive-Agers and Cognitive Decliners, and (2) identify Positive-Agers using neuronal functional connectivity networks data and demographics. METHODS: In this study, principal component analysis initially created latent cognitive trajectories groups. A hybrid algorithm of machine learning and optimization was then designed to predict latent groups using neuronal functional connectivity networks derived from resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging. Specifically, the Optimal Labeling with Bayesian Optimization (OLBO) algorithm used an unsupervised approach, iterating a logistic regression function with Bayesian posterior updating. This study encompassed 6369 adults from the UK Biobank cohort. RESULTS: OLBO outperformed baseline models, achieving an area under the curve of 88% when distinguishing between Positive-Agers and cognitive decliners. DISCUSSION: OLBO may be a novel algorithm that distinguishes cognitive trajectories with a high degree of accuracy in cognitively unimpaired adults. Highlights: Design an algorithm to distinguish between a Positive-Ager and a Cognitive-Decliner.Introduce a mathematical definition for cognitive classes based on cognitive tests.Accurate Positive-Ager identification using rsfMRI and demographic data (AUC = 0.88).Posterior default mode network has the highest impact on Positive-Aging odds ratio.

4.
Physiol Behav ; 271: 114321, 2023 11 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37567373

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Obesity and insulin resistance negatively influence neural activity and cognitive function, but electrophysiological mechanisms underlying these interrelationships remain unclear. This study investigated whether adiposity and insulin resistance moderated neural activity and underlying cognitive functions in young adults. METHODS: Real-time electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded in 38 lean (n = 12) and obese (n = 26) young adults with (n = 15) and without (n = 23) insulin resistance (18-38 years, 55.3% female) as participants completed three neurocognitive tasks in working memory (Operation Span), inhibitory control (Stroop), and episodic memory (Visual Association Test). Body fat percentage was quantified by a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan (DEXA/DXA). Fasting serum insulin and glucose were quantified to calculate Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) values, for which a higher value indicates more insulin resistance. Hierarchical moderated regression analysis tested these interrelationships. RESULTS: In males, greater frontal negative slow wave (fNSW) and positive slow wave (PSW) amplitudes were linked to higher working memory accuracy in participants with low, but not high, body fat percentage and HOMA-IR levels. In contrast, body fat percentage and HOMA-IR did not moderate these associations in females. Furthermore, body fat percentage and HOMA-IR values moderated the relationship between greater fNSW amplitudes and better episodic memory accuracy in males, but not females. Finally, body fat percentage and insulin resistance did not moderate the link between neural activity and inhibitory control for either sex. CONCLUSION: Young adult males, but not females, with higher body adiposity and insulin resistance showed reduced neural activity and worse underlying working and episodic memory functions.


Asunto(s)
Resistencia a la Insulina , Memoria Episódica , Masculino , Adulto Joven , Humanos , Femenino , Adiposidad , Resistencia a la Insulina/fisiología , Obesidad , Glucosa , Insulina
5.
Nutrients ; 15(15)2023 Jul 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37571327

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Red wine and dairy products have been staples in human diets for a long period. However, the impact of red wine and dairy intake on brain network activity remains ambiguous and requires further investigation. METHODS: This study investigated the associations between dairy and red wine consumption and seven neural networks' connectivity with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from a sub-cohort of the UK Biobank database. Linear mixed models were employed to regress dairy and red wine consumption against the intrinsic functional connectivity for each neural network. Interactions with Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk factors, including apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) genotype, TOMM40 genotype, and family history of AD, were also assessed. RESULT: More red wine consumption was associated with enhanced connectivity in the central executive function network and posterior default mode network. Greater milk intake was correlated with more left executive function network connectivity, while higher cheese consumption was linked to reduced posterior default mode network connectivity. For participants without a family history of Alzheimer's disease (AD), increased red wine consumption was positively correlated with enhanced left executive function network connectivity. In contrast, participants with a family history of AD displayed diminished network connectivity in relation to their red wine consumption. The association between cheese consumption and neural network connectivity was influenced by APOE4 status, TOMM40 status, and family history, exhibiting contrasting patterns across different subgroups. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study indicate that family history modifies the relationship between red wine consumption and network strength. The interaction effects between cheese intake and network connectivity may vary depending on the presence of different genetic factors.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Humanos , Encéfalo/diagnóstico por imagen , Apolipoproteína E4/genética , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Dieta , Reino Unido
6.
Geroscience ; 45(4): 2471-2480, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36947307

RESUMEN

Communities across the globe are faced with a rapidly aging society, where age is the main risk factor for cognitive decline and development of Alzheimer's and related diseases. Despite extensive research, there have been no successful treatments yet. A rare group of individuals called "super-agers" have been noted to thrive with their exceptional ability to maintain a healthy brain and normal cognitive function even in old age. Studying their traits, lifestyles, and environments may provide valuable insight. This study used a data-driven approach to identify potential super-agers among 7121 UK Biobank participants and found that these individuals have the highest total brain volume, best cognitive performance, and lowest functional connectivity. The researchers suggest a novel hypothesis that these super-agers possess enhanced neural processing efficiency that increases with age and introduce a definition of the "neural efficiency index." Furthermore, several other types of aging were identified and significant structural-functional differences were observed between them, highlighting the benefit of research efforts in personalized medicine and precision nutrition.


Asunto(s)
Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Encéfalo , Humanos , Cognición , Envejecimiento/psicología , Reino Unido
7.
J Alzheimers Dis ; 94(s1): S309-S318, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36710671

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 plays an important role in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis and increases disease risk. However, prior research examining IGF-1 levels and brain neural network activity is mixed. OBJECTIVE: The present study investigated the relationship between IGF-1 levels and 21 neural networks, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in 13,235 UK Biobank participants. METHODS: Linear mixed models were used to regress IGF-1 against the intrinsic functional connectivity (i.e., degree of network activity) for each neural network. Interactions between IGF-1 and AD risk factors such as Apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) genotype, sex, AD family history, and age were also tested. RESULTS: Higher IGF-1 was associated with more network activity in the right Executive Function neural network. IGF-1 interactions with APOE4 or sex implicated motor, primary/extrastriate visual, and executive function related neural networks. Neural network activity trends with increasing IGF-1 were different in different age groups. Higher IGF-1 levels relate to much more network activity in the Sensorimotor Network and Cerebellum Network in early-life participants (40-52 years old), compared with mid-life (52-59 years old) and late-life (59-70 years old) participants. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that sex and APOE4 genotype may modify the relationship between IGF-1 and brain network activities related to visual, motor, and cognitive processing. Additionally, IGF-1 may have an age-dependent effect on neural network connectivity.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Encéfalo , Anciano , Humanos , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/genética , Apolipoproteína E4/genética , Encéfalo/diagnóstico por imagen , Función Ejecutiva , Factor I del Crecimiento Similar a la Insulina , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética
8.
Geroscience ; 45(1): 491-505, 2023 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36104610

RESUMEN

Aging has often been characterized by progressive cognitive decline in memory and especially executive function. Yet some adults, aged 80 years or older, are "super-agers" that exhibit cognitive performance like younger adults. It is unknown if there are adults in mid-life with similar superior cognitive performance ("positive-aging") versus cognitive decline over time and if there are blood biomarkers that can distinguish between these groups. Among 1303 participants in UK Biobank, latent growth curve models classified participants into different cognitive groups based on longitudinal fluid intelligence (FI) scores over 7-9 years. Random Forest (RF) classification was then used to predict cognitive trajectory types using longitudinal predictors including demographic, vascular, bioenergetic, and immune factors. Feature ranking importance and performance metrics of the model were reported. Despite model complexity, we achieved a precision of 77% when determining who would be in the "positive-aging" group (n = 563) vs. cognitive decline group (n = 380). Among the top fifteen features, an equal number were related to either vascular health or cellular bioenergetics but not demographics like age, sex, or socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analyses showed worse model results when combining a cognitive maintainer group (n = 360) with the positive-aging or cognitive decline group. Our results suggest that optimal cognitive aging may not be related to age per se but biological factors that may be amenable to lifestyle or pharmacological changes.


Asunto(s)
Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Disfunción Cognitiva , Humanos , Bosques Aleatorios , Envejecimiento/psicología , Reino Unido
9.
Obes Sci Pract ; 8(5): 641-656, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36238230

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Aging is characterized by body composition alterations, including increased visceral adiposity accumulation and bone loss. Alcohol consumption may partially drive these alterations, but findings are mixed. This study primarily aimed to investigate whether different alcohol types (beer/cider, red wine, white wine/Champagne, spirits) differentially associated with body composition. METHODS: The longitudinal UK Biobank study leveraged 1869 White participants (40-80 years; 59% male). Participants self-reported demographic, alcohol/dietary consumption, and lifestyle factors using a touchscreen questionnaire. Anthropometrics and serum for proteomics were collected. Body composition was obtained via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Structural equation modeling was used to probe direct/indirect associations between alcohol types, cardiometabolic biomarkers, and body composition. RESULTS: Greater beer/spirit consumptions were associated with greater visceral adiposity (ß = 0.069, p < 0.001 and ß = 0.014, p < 0.001, respectively), which was driven by dyslipidemia and insulin resistance. In contrast, drinking more red wine was associated with less visceral adipose mass (ß = -0.023, p < 0.001), which was driven by reduced inflammation and elevated high-density lipoproteins. White wine consumption predicted greater bone density (ß = 0.051, p < 0.005). DISCUSSION: Beer/spirits may partially contribute to the "empty calorie" hypothesis related to adipogenesis, while red wine may help protect against adipogenesis due to anti-inflammatory/eulipidemic effects. Furthermore, white wine may benefit bone health in older White adults.1.

13.
Psychoneuroendocrinology ; 142: 105805, 2022 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35687978

RESUMEN

The biomarker cortisol assesses the impact of biopsychosocial stressors that activate the stress response system. Hair has emerged as a valid and non-invasive means of gauging cumulative cortisol deposited over month-long periods of time. Established protocols for the extraction of hair cortisol are being validated and refined in humans, yet methodological information about hair characteristics on cortisol remains limited. In addition to external hair exposures (e.g. dye, time spent outside), we examined hair categorization or type (e.g. kinky, straight) by extending a hair typing methodology for scientific use that is currently popular among hair care professionals. We then examined the interaction between hair type and race on cortisol levels with a hair questionnaire. Three studies were pooled to investigate how sample weight, hair type, race, heat exposures, and hair treatments impacted cumulative hair cortisol concentrations. Study 1 consisted of Adult Kenyan Medical Workers (N = 44); Study 2 Mexican and Mexican Americans (N = 106); and Study 3 American Youth (N = 107). We found significantly higher cortisol in 5 mg of hair when compared to larger sample weights, and higher cortisol in those who spent more time outdoors. Cortisol concentrations differed between racial groups and varied by hair type; moreover, there were directional differences in cumulative cortisol from straighter to curlier hair types which depended on racial group. In addition to demonstrating the impact of relatively novel control factors like hair sample weight, outdoor exposure, and hair type, the present study illustrates the importance of disentangling hair type and race to understand variability in cumulative hair cortisol. These influences should be included in future studies that measure hair cortisol.


Asunto(s)
Cabello , Hidrocortisona , Adolescente , Adulto , Biomarcadores , Humanos , Kenia , Estrés Psicológico
14.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 7736, 2022 05 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35545624

RESUMEN

Many risk factors have emerged for novel 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It is relatively unknown how these factors collectively predict COVID-19 infection risk, as well as risk for a severe infection (i.e., hospitalization). Among aged adults (69.3 ± 8.6 years) in UK Biobank, COVID-19 data was downloaded for 4510 participants with 7539 test cases. We downloaded baseline data from 10 to 14 years ago, including demographics, biochemistry, body mass, and other factors, as well as antibody titers for 20 common to rare infectious diseases in a subset of 80 participants with 124 test cases. Permutation-based linear discriminant analysis was used to predict COVID-19 risk and hospitalization risk. Probability and threshold metrics included receiver operating characteristic curves to derive area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, and quadratic mean. Model predictions using the full cohort were marginal. The "best-fit" model for predicting COVID-19 risk was found in the subset of participants with antibody titers, which achieved excellent discrimination (AUC 0.969, 95% CI 0.934-1.000). Factors included age, immune markers, lipids, and serology titers to common pathogens like human cytomegalovirus. The hospitalization "best-fit" model was more modest (AUC 0.803, 95% CI 0.663-0.943) and included only serology titers, again in the subset group. Accurate risk profiles can be created using standard self-report and biomedical data collected in public health and medical settings. It is also worthwhile to further investigate if prior host immunity predicts current host immunity to COVID-19.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2 , Reino Unido/epidemiología
15.
Microbiol Spectr ; 10(2): e0007322, 2022 04 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35323033

RESUMEN

Gastrointestinal illnesses and dysbiosis are among the most common comorbidities reported in patients with neurodevelopmental disorders. The manuscript reports that C. difficile infection (CDI), predisposed by antibiotic-induced gut dysbiosis, causes significant alterations in dopamine metabolism in major dopaminergic brain regions in mice (P < 0.05). In addition, C. difficile infected mice exhibited significantly reduced dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DBH) activity compared to controls (P < 0.01). Moreover, a significantly increased serum concentration of p-cresol, a DBH inhibiting gut metabolite produced by C. difficile, was also observed in C. difficile infected mice (P < 0.05). Therefore, this study suggests a potential mechanistic link between CDI and alterations in the brain dopaminergic axis. Such alterations may plausibly influence the precipitation and aggravation of dopamine dysmetabolism-associated neurologic diseases in infected patients. IMPORTANCE The gut-brain axis is thought to play a significant role in the development and manifestation of neurologic diseases. This study reports significant alterations in the brain dopamine metabolism in mice infected with C. difficile, an important pathogen that overgrows in the gut after prolonged antibiotic therapy. Such alterations in specific brain regions may have an effect on the precipitation or manifestation of neurodevelopmental disorders in humans.


Asunto(s)
Clostridioides difficile , Infecciones por Clostridium , Animales , Antibacterianos , Encéfalo , Dopamina , Disbiosis , Humanos , Ratones
16.
Neurobiol Aging ; 109: 158-165, 2022 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34740077

RESUMEN

The Apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE ε4) haplotype is the strongest genetic risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD). The Translocase of Outer Mitochondrial Membrane-40 (TOMM40) gene maintains cellular bioenergetics, which is disrupted in AD. TOMM40 rs2075650 ('650) G versus A carriage is consistently related to neural and cognitive outcomes, but it is unclear if and how it interacts with APOE. We examined 21 orthogonal neural networks among 8,222 middle-aged to aged participants in the UK Biobank cohort. ANOVA and multiple linear regression tested main effects and interactions with APOE and TOMM40 '650 genotypes, and if age and sex acted as moderators. APOE ε4 was associated with less strength in multiple networks, while '650 G versus A carriage was related to more language comprehension network strength. In APOE ε4 carriers, '650 G-carriage led to less network strength with increasing age, while in non-G-carriers this was only seen in women but not men. TOMM40 may shift what happens to network activity in aging APOE ε4 carriers depending on sex.


Asunto(s)
Apolipoproteínas E/genética , Proteínas del Complejo de Importación de Proteínas Precursoras Mitocondriales/genética , Red Nerviosa/fisiología , Caracteres Sexuales , Envejecimiento/genética , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/genética , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/psicología , Cognición , Epistasis Genética/genética , Femenino , Genotipo , Haplotipos , Heterocigoto , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo
17.
Alzheimers Dement ; 18(5): 1038-1046, 2022 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34874605

RESUMEN

COVID-19 causes lasting neurological symptoms in some survivors. Like other infections, COVID-19 may increase risk of cognitive impairment. This perspective highlights four knowledge gaps about COVID-19 that need to be filled to avoid this possible health issue. The first is the need to identify the COVID-19 symptoms, genetic polymorphisms and treatment decisions associated with risk of cognitive impairment. The second is the absence of model systems in which to test hypotheses relating infection to cognition. The third is the need for consortia for studying both existing and new longitudinal cohorts in which to monitor long term consequences of COVID-19 infection. A final knowledge gap discussed is the impact of the isolation and lack of social services brought about by quarantine/lockdowns on people living with dementia and their caregivers. Research into these areas may lead to interventions that reduce the overall risk of cognitive decline for COVID-19 survivors.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer , COVID-19 , Disfunción Cognitiva , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/epidemiología , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/genética , Cuidadores/psicología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Humanos
18.
Brain Behav Immun ; 95: 216-225, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33775832

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms in Alzheimer's disease (AD) predict worse cognitive and functional outcomes. Both AD and major depression inflammatory processes are characterized by shunted tryptophan metabolism away from serotonin (5-HT) and toward the neuroinflammatory kynurenine (Kyn) pathway. The present study assessed associations between Kyn and behavioral, neuroanatomical, neuropathological, and physiological outcomes common to both AD and negative affect across the AD continuum. METHODS: In 58 cognitively normal, 396 mild cognitive impairment, and 112 AD participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative-1 (ADNI1) cohort, serum markers of 5-HT, tryptophan, and Kyn were measured and their relationships investigated with immunologic markers, affect and functional outcomes, CSF markers of beta-amyloid (Aß) and tau, and regional gray matter. RESULTS: A higher Kyn/Tryptophan ratio was linked to many inflammatory markers, as well as lower functional independence and memory scores. A higher Kyn/5-HT ratio showed similar associations, but also strong relationships with negative affect and neuropsychiatric disturbance, executive dysfunction, and global cognitive decline. Further, gray matter atrophy was seen in hippocampus, anterior cingulate, and prefrontal cortices, as well as greater amyloid and total tau deposition. Finally, using moderated-mediation, several pro-inflammatory factors partially mediated Kyn/5-HT and negative affect scores in participants with subclinical Aß (i.e., Aß-), whereas such associations were fully mediated by Complement 3 in Aß+ participants. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that inflammatory signaling cascades may occur during AD, which is associated with increased Kyn metabolism that influences the pathogenesis of negative affect. Aß and the complement system may be critical contributing factors in this process.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Disfunción Cognitiva , Péptidos beta-Amiloides , Humanos , Inflamación , Quinurenina
19.
Front Hum Neurosci ; 15: 624107, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33716694

RESUMEN

A high percent of oxidative energy metabolism is needed to support brain growth during infancy. Unhealthy diets and limited nutrition, as well as other environmental insults, can compromise these essential developmental processes. In particular, iron deficiency anemia (IDA) has been found to undermine both normal brain growth and neurobehavioral development. Even moderate ID may affect neural maturation because when iron is limited, it is prioritized first to red blood cells over the brain. A primate model was used to investigate the neural effects of a transient ID and if deficits would persist after iron treatment. The large size and postnatal growth of the monkey brain makes the findings relevant to the metabolic and iron needs of human infants, and initiating treatment upon diagnosis of anemia reflects clinical practice. Specifically, this analysis determined whether brain maturation would still be compromised at 1 year of age if an anemic infant was treated promptly once diagnosed. The hematology and iron status of 41 infant rhesus monkeys was screened at 2-month intervals. Fifteen became ID; 12 met clinical criteria for anemia and were administered iron dextran and B vitamins for 1-2 months. MRI scans were acquired at 1 year. The volumetric and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures from the ID infants were compared with monkeys who remained continuously iron sufficient (IS). A prior history of ID was associated with smaller total brain volumes, driven primarily by significantly less total gray matter (GM) and smaller GM volumes in several cortical regions. At the macrostructual level, the effect on white matter volumes (WM) was not as overt. However, DTI analyses of WM microstructure indicated two later-maturating anterior tracts were negatively affected. The findings reaffirm the importance of iron for normal brain development. Given that brain differences were still evident even after iron treatment and following recovery of iron-dependent hematological indices, the results highlight the importance of early detection and preemptive supplementation to limit the neural consequences of ID.

20.
medRxiv ; 2021 Jan 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32577673

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Many risk factors have emerged for novel 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It is relatively unknown how these factors collectively predict COVID-19 infection risk, as well as risk for a severe infection (i.e., hospitalization). METHODS: Among aged adults (69.3 ± 8.6 years) in UK Biobank, COVID-19 data was downloaded for 4,510 participants with 7,539 test cases. We downloaded baseline data from 10-14 years ago, including demographics, biochemistry, body mass, and other factors, as well as antibody titers for 20 common to rare infectious diseases. Permutation-based linear discriminant analysis was used to predict COVID-19 risk and hospitalization risk. Probability and threshold metrics included receiver operating characteristic curves to derive area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, and quadratic mean. RESULTS: The "best-fit" model for predicting COVID-19 risk achieved excellent discrimination (AUC=0.969, 95% CI=0.934-1.000). Factors included age, immune markers, lipids, and serology titers to common pathogens like human cytomegalovirus. The hospitalization "best-fit" model was more modest (AUC=0.803, 95% CI=0.663-0.943) and included only serology titers. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate risk profiles can be created using standard self-report and biomedical data collected in public health and medical settings. It is also worthwhile to further investigate if prior host immunity predicts current host immunity to COVID-19.

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