High Variability of Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated With Incident Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99 368 White participants with ≥3 BMI measures during >2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized SD and coefficient of variation. The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, adjusting for confounding factors and participant-specific rate of BMI change. Higher BMI variability measured in both SD and coefficient of variation was significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: hazard ratio [HR], 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08], P<0.0001; coefficient of variation: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10], P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence.

Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk in 109,954 Veterans With Adult-Onset Diabetes: The Million Veteran Program (MVP).

OBJECTIVE: To characterize high type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk in a population where type 2 diabetes (T2D) predominates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Characteristics typically associated with T1D were assessed in 109,594 Million Veteran Program participants with adult-onset diabetes, 2011-2021, who had T1D genetic risk scores (GRS) defined as low (0 to <45%), medium (45 to <90%), high (90 to <95%), or highest (≥95%). RESULTS: T1D characteristics increased progressively with higher genetic risk (P < 0.001 for trend). A GRS ≥ 90% was more common with diabetes diagnoses before age 40 years, but 95% of those participants were diagnosed at age ≥40 years, and they resembled T2D in mean age (64.3 years) and BMI (32.3 kg/m2). Compared with the low risk group, the highest-risk group was more likely to have diabetic ketoacidosis (low 0.9% vs. highest GRS 3.7%), hypoglycemia prompting emergency visits (3.7% vs. 5.8%), outpatient plasma glucose <50 mg/dL (7.5% vs. 13.4%), a shorter median time to start insulin (3.5 vs. 1.4 years), use of a T1D diagnostic code (16.3% vs. 28.1%), low C-peptide levels if tested (1.8% vs. 32.4%), and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (6.9% vs. 45.2%), all P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics associated with T1D were increased with higher genetic risk, and especially with the top 10% of risk. However, the age and BMI of those participants resemble people with T2D, and a substantial proportion did not have diagnostic testing or use of T1D diagnostic codes. T1D genetic screening could be used to aid identification of adult-onset T1D in settings in which T2D predominates.

Lipid levels and risk of acute pancreatitis using bidirectional Mendelian randomization.

Previous studies found lipid levels, especially triglycerides (TG), are associated with acute pancreatitis, but their causalities and bi-directions were not fully examined. We determined whether abnormal levels of TG, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are precursors and/or consequences of acute pancreatitis using bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with two non-overlapping genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics for lipid levels and acute pancreatitis. We found phenotypic associations that both higher TG levels and lower HDL-C levels contributed to increased risk of acute pancreatitis. Our GWAS meta-analysis of acute pancreatitis identified seven independent signals. Genetically predicted TG was positively associated with acute pancreatitis when using the variants specifically associated with TG using univariable MR [Odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 2.02, 1.22-3.31], but the reversed direction from acute pancreatitis to TG was not observed (mean difference = 0.003, SE = 0.002, P-value = 0.138). However, a bidirectional relationship of HDL-C and acute pancreatitis was observed: A 1-SD increment of genetically predicted HDL-C was associated with lower risk of acute pancreatitis (OR, 95% CI 0.84, 0.76-0.92) and genetically predisposed individuals with acute pancreatitis have, on average, 0.005 SD lower HDL-C (mean difference = - 0.005, SE = 0.002, P-value = 0.004). Our MR analysis confirms the evidence of TG as a risk factor of acute pancreatitis but not a consequence. A potential bidirectional relationship of HDL-C and acute pancreatitis occurs and raises the prospect of HDL-C modulation in the acute pancreatitis prevention and treatment.

Long-Term Body Mass Index Variability and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes.

Importance: Body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is a commonly used estimate of obesity, which is a complex trait affected by genetic and lifestyle factors. Marked weight gain and loss could be associated with adverse biological processes. Objective: To evaluate the association between BMI variability and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in 2 distinct cohorts. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP) between 2011 and 2018 and participants in the UK Biobank (UKB) enrolled between 2006 and 2010. Participants were followed up for a median of 3.8 (5th-95th percentile, 3.5) years. Participants with baseline CVD or cancer were excluded. Data were analyzed from September 2022 and September 2023. Exposure: BMI variability was calculated by the retrospective SD and coefficient of variation (CV) using multiple clinical BMI measurements up to the baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incident composite CVD events (incident nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death), assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling after adjustment for CVD risk factors, including age, sex, mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes status, and statin use. Secondary analysis assessed whether associations were dependent on the polygenic score of BMI. Results: Among 92 363 US veterans in the MVP cohort (81 675 [88%] male; mean [SD] age, 56.7 [14.1] years), there were 9695 Hispanic participants, 22 488 non-Hispanic Black participants, and 60 180 non-Hispanic White participants. A total of 4811 composite CVD events were observed from 2011 to 2018. The CV of BMI was associated with 16% higher risk for composite CVD across all groups (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.19). These associations were unchanged among subgroups and after adjustment for the polygenic score of BMI. The UKB cohort included 65 047 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.30 (7.77) years; 38 065 [59%] female) and had 6934 composite CVD events. Each 1-SD increase in BMI variability in the UKB cohort was associated with 8% increased risk of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that among US veterans, higher BMI variability was a significant risk marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events independent of mean BMI across major racial and ethnic groups. Results were consistent in the UKB for the cardiovascular death end point. Further studies should investigate the phenotype of high BMI variability.

Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis.

Importance: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown. Objective: To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes: Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials). Results: The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS). Conclusions: This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Incidence and prognostic significance of newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation among older U.S. veterans hospitalized with COVID-19.

Most prior studies on the prognostic significance of newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) in COVID-19 did not differentiate newly-diagnosed AF from pre-existing AF. To determine the association between newly-diagnosed AF and in-hospital and 30-day mortality among regular users of Veterans Health Administration using data linked to Medicare. We identified Veterans aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalized for ≥ 24 h with COVID-19 from 06/01/2020 to 1/31/2022 and had ≥ 2 primary care visits within 24 months prior to the index hospitalization. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate adjusted risks, risk differences (RD), and odds ratios (OR) for the association between newly-diagnosed AF and the mortality outcomes adjusting for patient demographics, baseline comorbidities, and presence of acute organ dysfunction on admission. Of 23,299 patients in the study cohort, 5.3% had newly-diagnosed AF, and 29.2% had pre-existing AF. In newly-diagnosed AF adjusted in-hospital and 30-day mortality were 16.5% and 22.7%, respectively. Newly-diagnosed AF was associated with increased mortality compared to pre-existing AF (in-hospital: OR 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-2.37; RD 7.58%, 95% CI 5.54-9.62) (30-day: OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.60-2.16; RD 9.04%, 95% CI 6.61-11.5) or no AF (in-hospital: OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93-2.60; RD 8.40%, 95% CI 6.44-10.4) (30-day: 2.07, 95% CI 1.80-2.37; RD 10.2%, 95% CI 7.89-12.6). There was a smaller association between pre-existing AF and the mortality outcomes. Newly-diagnosed AF is an important prognostic marker for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Whether prevention or treatment of AF improves clinical outcomes in these patients remains unknown.

New statin use, mortality, and first cardiovascular events in older US Veterans by frailty status.

BACKGROUND: Statins are part of long-term medical regimens for many older adults. Whether frailty modifies the protective relationship between statins, mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is unknown. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of US Veterans ≥65, without CVD or prior statin use seen in 2002-2012, followed through 2017. A 31-item frailty index was used. The co-primary endpoint was all-cause mortality or MACE (MI, stroke/TIA, revascularization, or cardiovascular death). Cox proportional hazards models were developed to evaluate the association of statin use with outcomes; propensity score overlap weighting accounted for confounding by indication. RESULTS: We identified 710,313 Veterans (mean age (SD) 75.3(6.5), 98% male, 89% white); 86,327 (12.1%) were frail. Over mean follow-up of 8 (5) years, there were 48.6 and 72.6 deaths per 1000 person-years (PY) among non-frail statin-users vs nonusers (weighted Incidence Rate Difference (wIRD)/1000 person years (PY), -24.0[95% CI, -24.5 to -23.6]), and 90.4 and 130.4 deaths per 1000PY among frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -40.0[95% CI, -41.8 to -38.2]). There were 51.7 and 60.8 MACE per 1000PY among non-frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -9.1[95% CI, -9.7 to -8.5]), and 88.2 and 102.0 MACE per 1000PY among frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -13.8[95% CI, -16.2 to -11.4]). There were no significant interactions by frailty for statin users vs non-users by either mortality or MACE outcomes, p-interaction 0.770 and 0.319, respectively. Statin use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.61 (0.60-0.61)) and MACE (HR 0.86 (0.85-0.87)). CONCLUSIONS: New statin use is associated with a lower risk of mortality and MACE, independent of frailty. These findings should be confirmed in a randomized clinical trial.

Serum Cholesterol and Impact of Age on Coronary Heart Disease Death in More Than 4 Million Veterans.

Background The lipid hypothesis postulates that lower blood cholesterol is associated with reduced coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, which has been challenged by reports of a U-shaped relation between cholesterol and death in recent studies. We sought to examine whether the U-shaped relationship is true and to assess the impact of age on this association. Method and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study of 4 467 942 veterans aged >18 years, with baseline outpatient visits from 2002 to 2007 and follow-up to December 30, 2018, in the Veterans Health Administration electronic health record system. We observed a J-shaped relation between total cholesterol (TC) and CHD mortality after a comprehensive adjustment of confounding factors: flat for TC <180 mg/dL, and greater risk was present at higher cholesterol levels. Compared with veterans with TC between 180 and 199 mg/dL, the multiadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD death were 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02-1.04), 1.07 (95% CI, 1.06-1.09), 1.15 (95% CI, 1.13-1.18), 1.25 (95% CI, 1.22-1.28), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.42-1.49) times greater among veterans with TC (mg/dL) of 200 to 219, 220 to 239, 140 to 259, 260 to 279 and ≥280, respectively. Similar J-shaped TC-CHD mortality patterns were observed among veterans with and without statin use at or before baseline. Conclusions The cholesterol paradox, for example, higher CHD death in patients with a low cholesterol level, was a reflection of reverse causality, especially among older participants. Our results support the lipid hypothesis that lower blood cholesterol is associated with reduced CHD. Furthermore, the hypothesis remained true when TC was low due to use of statins or other lipid-lowering medication.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis identifies 5 novel loci for ischemic stroke and reveals heterogeneity of effects between sexes and ancestries.

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Stroke prevalence varies by sex and ancestry, possibly due to genetic heterogeneity between subgroups. We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of 16 biobanks across multiple ancestries to study the genetics of ischemic stroke (60,176 cases, 1,310,725 controls) as part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) and further combined the results with previously published MegaStroke. Five novel loci for ischemic stroke (LAMC1, CALCRL, PLSCR1, CDKN1A, and SWAP70) were identified after replication in four additional datasets. One previously reported locus showed significant ancestry heterogeneity (ABO), and one showed significant sex heterogeneity (ALDH2). The ALDH2 association was male specific (males p = 1.67e-24, females p = 0.126) and was additionally observed only in the East Asian ancestry (male) samples. These findings emphasize the need for more diverse datasets with large sample sizes to further understand the genetic predisposition of stroke in different ancestry and sex groups.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease.

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Genome-wide association analysis and Mendelian randomization proteomics identify drug targets for heart failure.

We conduct a large-scale meta-analysis of heart failure genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of over 90,000 heart failure cases and more than 1 million control individuals of European ancestry to uncover novel genetic determinants for heart failure. Using the GWAS results and blood protein quantitative loci, we perform Mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses on human proteins to provide putative causal evidence for the role of druggable proteins in the genesis of heart failure. We identify 39 genome-wide significant heart failure risk variants, of which 18 are previously unreported. Using a combination of Mendelian randomization proteomics and genetic cis-only colocalization analyses, we identify 10 additional putatively causal genes for heart failure. Findings from GWAS and Mendelian randomization-proteomics identify seven (CAMK2D, PRKD1, PRKD3, MAPK3, TNFSF12, APOC3 and NAE1) proteins as potential targets for interventions to be used in primary prevention of heart failure.

Predictive value of ASCVD risk score for mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events in the year following a COVID-19 infection among US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality following COVID-19 infection may be influenced by baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, yet limited data are available to identify those at highest risk. We examined the association between baseline ASCVD risk with mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the year following COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We evaluated a nationwide retrospective cohort of US Veterans free of ASCVD who were tested for COVID-19. The primary outcome was absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the year following a COVID-19 test among those hospitalized vs. not stratified by baseline VA-ASCVD risk scores. Secondarily, risk of MACE was examined. RESULTS: There were 393,683 Veterans tested for COVID-19 and 72,840 tested positive. Mean age was 57 years, 86% were male, and 68% were white. Within 30 days following infection, hospitalized Veterans with VA-ASCVD scores >20% had an absolute risk of death of 24.6% vs. 9.7% (P ≤0.0001) for those who tested positive and negative for COVID-19 respectively. In the year following infection, risk of mortality attenuated with no difference in risk after 60 days. The absolute risk of MACE was similar for Veterans who tested positive or negative for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans without clinical ASCVD experienced an increased absolute risk of death within 30 days of a COVID-19 infection compared to Veterans with the same VA-ASCVD risk score who tested negative, but this risk attenuated after 60 days. Whether cardiovascular preventive medications can lower the risk of mortality and MACE in the acute period following COVID-19 infection should be evaluated.

Dietary ω-3 fatty acids and the incidence of atrial fibrillation in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Although recent large randomized clinical trials have reported an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) with marine ω-3 fatty acid supplements, it is unclear whether dietary marine ω-3 fatty acids assessed through food frequency questionnaires are associated with AF risk. OBJECTIVES: We sought to test the hypothesis that dietary eicosapentaenoic acid/docosahexaenoic acid/docosapentaecnoic acid (EPA/DHA/DPA) is associated with a higher risk of AF in a large prospective cohort of US Veterans. METHODS: We analyzed data from Million Veteran Program participants who completed self-reported food frequency questionnaires. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate the HRs of AF across quintiles of ω-3 fatty acid consumption and a cubic spline analysis to assess the dose-response relations between ω-3 fatty acids and AF. RESULTS: Of the 301,294 veterans studied, the median intake of ω-3 fatty acids (EPA/DHA/DPA) was 219 mg/d (IQR: 144-575), and the mean age was 64.9 y (SD: 12.0); 91% were men, and 84% were White. Consumption of EPA/DHA/DPA exhibited a nonlinear inverse relation with incident AF characterized by an initial decline to 11% at 750 mg/d of marine ω-3 fatty acid intake followed by a plateau. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to our hypothesis, dietary EPA/DHA/DPA was not associated with a higher risk of AF but was inversely related to AF risk in a nonlinear manner.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using Traditional Risk Factors and Polygenic Risk Scores in the Million Veteran Program.

Importance: Primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) relies on risk stratification. Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are proposed to improve ASCVD risk estimation. Objective: To determine whether genome-wide PRSs for coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute ischemic stroke improve ASCVD risk estimation with traditional clinical risk factors in an ancestrally diverse midlife population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prognostic analysis of incident events in a retrospectively defined longitudinal cohort conducted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. Included in the study were adults free of ASCVD and statin naive at baseline from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), a mega biobank with genetic, survey, and electronic health record data from a large US health care system. Data were analyzed from March 15, 2021, to January 5, 2023. Exposures: PRSs for CAD and ischemic stroke derived from cohorts of largely European descent and risk factors, including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, ASCVD death, and composite ASCVD events. Results: A total of 79 151 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.8 [13.7] years; 68 503 male [86.5%]) were included in the study. The cohort included participants from the following harmonized genetic ancestry and race and ethnicity categories: 18 505 non-Hispanic Black (23.4%), 6785 Hispanic (8.6%), and 53 861 non-Hispanic White (68.0%) with a median (5th-95th percentile) follow-up of 4.3 (0.7-6.9) years. From 2011 to 2018, 3186 MIs (4.0%), 1933 ischemic strokes (2.4%), 867 ASCVD deaths (1.1%), and 5485 composite ASCVD events (6.9%) were observed. CAD PRS was associated with incident MI in non-Hispanic Black (hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19), Hispanic (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.46), and non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29) participants. Stroke PRS was associated with incident stroke in non-Hispanic White participants (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08-1.21). A combined CAD plus stroke PRS was associated with ASCVD deaths among non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17) and non-Hispanic (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) participants. The combined PRS was also associated with composite ASCVD across all ancestry groups but greater among non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.24) than non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17) and Hispanic (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.25) participants. Net reclassification improvement from adding PRS to a traditional risk model was modest for the intermediate risk group for composite CVD among men (5-year risk >3.75%, 0.38%; 95% CI, 0.07%-0.68%), among women, (6.79%; 95% CI, 3.01%-10.58%), for age older than 55 years (0.25%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.47%), and for ages 40 to 55 years (1.61%; 95% CI, -0.07% to 3.30%). Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that PRSs derived predominantly in European samples were statistically significantly associated with ASCVD in the multiancestry midlife and older-age MVP cohort. Overall, modest improvement in discrimination metrics were observed with addition of PRSs to traditional risk factors with greater magnitude in women and younger age groups.

High Variability of Body Mass Index Independently Associated with Incident Heart Failure.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, including HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. Methods: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99,368 White (British, Irish, and any other white background) participants with ≥ 3 BMI measures during > 2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV). The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, and adjusted for age, sex, smoking history, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, history of heart attack, stroke, atrial fibrillation, lipids, estimated glomerular filtration rate and mean BMI per individual. Results: In the fully adjusted model, higher BMI variability measured in both SD and CV were significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.02 - 1.07, p = 0.0002; CV: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 - 1.09, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence. Integration of long-term BMI and other routinely measured health factors may improve risk prediction of HF and other cardiovascular outcomes.

Genome-wide association study of obstructive sleep apnoea in the Million Veteran Program uncovers genetic heterogeneity by sex.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) are limited due to the underdiagnosis of OSA, leading to misclassification of OSA, which consequently reduces statistical power. We performed a GWAS of OSA in the Million Veteran Program (MVP) of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system, where OSA prevalence is close to its true population prevalence. METHODS: We performed GWAS of 568,576 MVP participants, stratified by biological sex and by harmonized race/ethnicity and genetic ancestry (HARE) groups of White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian individuals. We considered both BMI adjusted (BMI-adj) and unadjusted (BMI-unadj) models. We replicated associations in independent datasets, and analysed the heterogeneity of OSA genetic associations across HARE and sex groups. We finally performed a larger meta-analysis GWAS of MVP, FinnGen, and the MGB Biobank, totalling 916,696 individuals. FINDINGS: MVP participants are 91% male. OSA prevalence is 21%. In MVP there were 18 and 6 genome-wide significant loci in BMI-unadj and BMI-adj analyses, respectively, corresponding to 21 association regions. Of these, 17 were not previously reported in association with OSA, and 13 replicated in FinnGen (False Discovery Rate p-value < 0.05). There were widespread significant differences in genetic effects between men and women, but less so across HARE groups. Meta-analysis of MVP, FinnGen, and MGB biobank revealed 17 additional, previously unreported, genome-wide significant regions. INTERPRETATION: Sex differences in genetic associations with OSA are widespread, likely associated with multiple OSA risk factors. OSA shares genetic underpinnings with several sleep phenotypes, suggesting shared aetiology and causal pathways. FUNDING: Described in acknowledgements.

Multiancestry Genome-Wide Association Study of Aortic Stenosis Identifies Multiple Novel Loci in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (CAS) is the most common valvular heart disease in older adults and has no effective preventive therapies. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can identify genes influencing disease and may help prioritize therapeutic targets for CAS. METHODS: We performed a GWAS and gene association study of 14 451 patients with CAS and 398 544 controls in the Million Veteran Program. Replication was performed in the Million Veteran Program, Penn Medicine Biobank, Mass General Brigham Biobank, BioVU, and BioMe, totaling 12 889 cases and 348 094 controls. Causal genes were prioritized from genome-wide significant variants using polygenic priority score gene localization, expression quantitative trait locus colocalization, and nearest gene methods. CAS genetic architecture was compared with that of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Causal inference for cardiometabolic biomarkers in CAS was performed using Mendelian randomization and genome-wide significant loci were characterized further through phenome-wide association study. RESULTS: We identified 23 genome-wide significant lead variants in our GWAS representing 17 unique genomic regions. Of the 23 lead variants, 14 were significant in replication, representing 11 unique genomic regions. Five replicated genomic regions were previously known risk loci for CAS (PALMD, TEX41, IL6, LPA, FADS) and 6 were novel (CEP85L, FTO, SLMAP, CELSR2, MECOM, CDAN1). Two novel lead variants were associated in non-White individuals (P<0.05): rs12740374 (CELSR2) in Black and Hispanic individuals and rs1522387 (SLMAP) in Black individuals. Of the 14 replicated lead variants, only 2 (rs10455872 [LPA], rs12740374 [CELSR2]) were also significant in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease GWAS. In Mendelian randomization, lipoprotein(a) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were both associated with CAS, but the association between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and CAS was attenuated when adjusting for lipoprotein(a). Phenome-wide association study highlighted varying degrees of pleiotropy, including between CAS and obesity at the FTO locus. However, the FTO locus remained associated with CAS after adjusting for body mass index and maintained a significant independent effect on CAS in mediation analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We performed a multiancestry GWAS in CAS and identified 6 novel genomic regions in the disease. Secondary analyses highlighted the roles of lipid metabolism, inflammation, cellular senescence, and adiposity in the pathobiology of CAS and clarified the shared and differential genetic architectures of CAS with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases.

U-shaped relationship between apolipoprotein A1 levels and mortality risk in men and women.

BACKGROUND: Apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) is the principal protein component of high-density lipoprotein (HDL). Although low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are known to be associated with greater cardiovascular risk, recent studies have also shown heightened mortality risk at very high HDL-C levels. AIMS: To investigate the sex-specific association between elevated ApoA1 levels and adverse outcomes, and their genetic basis. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of United Kingdom Biobank participants without coronary artery disease at enrollment was performed. The primary exposure was serum ApoA1 levels. The primary and secondary outcome measures were cardiovascular and all-cause death, respectively. RESULTS: In 402 783 participants followed for a median of 12.1 years, there was a U-shaped relationship between ApoA1 levels and both cardiovascular as well as all-cause mortality, after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Individuals in the highest decile of ApoA1 levels (1.91-2.50 g/L) demonstrated higher cardiovascular (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.07-1.37, P < 0.0022) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.21, P < 0.0001) compared with those within the lowest risk eighth decile (1.67-1.75 g/L). The U-shaped relationship was present in both sexes, though more pronounced in men. Sensitivity analyses showed that cardiovascular mortality rates were higher in those with greater alcohol intake (P < 0.004). Adjustment for polygenic variation associated with higher ApoA1 levels did not attenuate the effect of very high ApoA1 levels on mortality. In the sub-group with very elevated HDL-C levels (> 80 mg/dL in men, > 100 mg/dL in women), there was no association between ApoA1 levels and mortality. CONCLUSION: Both very low and very elevated ApoA1 levels are associated with higher cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

Plant-based diets and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: the Million Veteran Program.

Background: A healthful plant-based diet was associated with lower risks of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and a favourable profile of adiposity-associated biomarkers, while an unhealthful plant-based diet was associated with elevated risk of cardiometabolic disease in health professional populations. However, little is known about the associations between plant-based dietary patterns and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in US veterans. Methods: The study population consisted of 148 506 participants who were free of diabetes, CVD and cancer at baseline in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program. Diet was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire at baseline. We calculated an overall Plant-Based Diet Index (PDI), a healthful PDI (hPDI) and an unhealthful PDI (uPDI). The CVD endpoints included non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) identified through high-throughput phenotyping algorithms approach and fatal CVD events identified by searching the National Death Index. Results: With up to 8 years of follow-up, we documented 5025 CVD cases. After adjustment for confounding factors, a higher PDI was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.75, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.82, P trend<0.0001). We observed an inverse association between hPDI and the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.71, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.78, P trend<0.001), whereas uPDI was positively associated with the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.24, P trend<0.001). We found similar associations of hPDI with subtypes of CVD; a 10-unit increment in hPDI was associated with HRs (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.75 to 0.87) for fatal CVD, 0.86 (0.79 to 0.94) for non-fatal MI and 0.86 (0.78 to 0.95) for non-fatal AIS. Conclusions: Plant-based dietary pattern enriched with healthier plant foods was associated with a substantially lower CVD risk in US veterans.

Genomics and phenomics of body mass index reveals a complex disease network.

Elevated body mass index (BMI) is heritable and associated with many health conditions that impact morbidity and mortality. The study of the genetic association of BMI across a broad range of common disease conditions offers the opportunity to extend current knowledge regarding the breadth and depth of adiposity-related diseases. We identify 906 (364 novel) and 41 (6 novel) genome-wide significant loci for BMI among participants of European (N~1.1 million) and African (N~100,000) ancestry, respectively. Using a BMI genetic risk score including 2446 variants, 316 diagnoses are associated in the Million Veteran Program, with 96.5% showing increased risk. A co-morbidity network analysis reveals seven disease communities containing multiple interconnected diseases associated with BMI as well as extensive connections across communities. Mendelian randomization analysis confirms numerous phenotypes across a breadth of organ systems, including conditions of the circulatory (heart failure, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation), genitourinary (chronic renal failure), respiratory (respiratory failure, asthma), musculoskeletal and dermatologic systems that are deeply interconnected within and across the disease communities. This work shows that the complex genetic architecture of BMI associates with a broad range of major health conditions, supporting the need for comprehensive approaches to prevent and treat obesity.