Effect on background checks of newly-enacted comprehensive background check policies in Oregon and Washington: a synthetic control approach.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive background check (CBC) laws extend background check requirements to private party firearm transfers to prevent firearm acquisitions by prohibited persons. The aim of our study was to estimate the association between CBC policies and changes in background check rates for firearm acquisition in two states (Oregon and Washington) that have newly-enacted CBC policies. METHODS: We used data on handgun background checks from January 1999 to December 2018 from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Observed trends in exposed states were contrasted with counterfactual trends estimated with the synthetic control group method. FINDINGS: CBC policies were associated with increases in background checks in Oregon (by 18.0%; p = 0.074), but not in Washington (4%; p = 0.321). A gradual increase in private party checks was seen following enactment in Washington; however, firearm transactions coded as "private" represent less than 5% of total background checks in that state. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive background check policies appear to be effective in increasing pre-firearm-sale background checks in Oregon but not in Washington. Differences appear to be related to variations in the proportion of firearm sales that are private party transfers and to gradual adaptation to the new law by private gun sellers.

Psychiatric Disorders and Gun Carrying among Adolescents in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate associations between psychiatric disorders and gun carrying among adolescents and to estimate the total number of adolescents in the US who have psychiatric disorders and report carrying guns. STUDY DESIGN: We used cross-sectional data from the National Comorbidity Survey - Adolescent Supplement, a nationally representative sample of adolescents age 13-18 years (N = 10 123; response rate = 75.6%). Psychiatric disorders were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Gun carrying in the 30 days prior to the interview was assessed by self-report. We used multivariable Poisson regression to test for associations. RESULTS: The analytic sample included 10 112 adolescents, 2.4% of whom reported carrying a gun in the prior 30 days. The prevalence of gun carrying was greater among adolescents with conduct disorder (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 1.88, 95% CI 1.38, 2.57), drug use disorders (APR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.05, 3.45), and specific phobias (APR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.07, 2.22) compared with adolescents without these disorders. We estimated that 1.1% (95% CI 0.77, 1.48) of adolescents with a disorder associated with self- or other-directed violence also carry guns. Nationally, that is approximately 272 000 adolescents with both risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Specific psychiatric disorders are associated with an increased risk of gun carrying among adolescents, but the vast majority of adolescents with psychiatric disorders did not report gun carrying. Targeted efforts to assess access to and use of firearms in mental healthcare and other clinical settings are important, as are efforts to identify population approaches to prevention.

School collective occupation movements and substance use among adolescents: A school-level panel design.

BACKGROUND: Recently, social movements across the world have demanded reforms to education systems and other institutions. Although such movements have affected large numbers of people across multiple countries, we know little about the impacts they have had on population health. We focus on one example: the massive strikes and collective occupation of secondary schools across Chile, which occurred contemporaneously with a large increase in marijuana use among students in this age group. We aimed to evaluate the causal effects that the 2011 Chilean school strikes had on adolescent substance use, including the initiation of marijuana use and the use of alcohol and marijuana. METHODS: School-level, aggregated panel design using data from the National Drug Surveys among Secondary Students from 2005 to 2015 for students in grades 9-12. We used a fixed-effects difference-in-difference model to estimate the effect of school occupations on prevalence of self-reported indicators of drug use. RESULTS: Reported marijuana use doubled between 2009 and 2013 among Chilean adolescents. After controlling for secular trends in outcomes and for school characteristics, there was no evidence of increased marijuana initiation, alcohol and marijuana use, or of an increase in heavy use among adolescents being directly attributable to school strikes and occupations in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: The 2011 Occupy school movement in Chile had no detectable causal effect on substance use among Chilean adolescents. The increase in marijuana use from 2009 to 2013 seems to be part of broader social changes occurring among the school-age population.