Trends in HIV incidence following scale-up of harm reduction interventions among people who inject drugs in Kachin, Myanmar, 2008-2020: analysis of a retrospective cohort dataset.

Background: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Kachin, Myanmar, have a high HIV prevalence (>40%), but there is no data on incidence. We used HIV testing data from three harm reduction drop-in centres (DIC) in Kachin (2008-2020) to determine HIV incidence trends among PWID and associations with intervention uptake. Methods: Individuals were HIV-tested at first DIC visit and periodically thereafter, during which demographic and risk behaviour data were collected. Two DIC provided opioid agonist therapy (OAT) from 2008. Monthly DIC-level needle/syringe provision (NSP) data was available from 2012. Site-level 6-monthly NSP coverage was denoted low, high, or medium if it was below the lower quartile, above upper quartile, between these quartiles of provision levels over 2012-2020, respectively. HIV incidence was estimated by linking subsequent test records for those initially testing HIV-negative. Associations with HIV incidence were examined using Cox regression. Findings: Follow-up HIV testing data was available for 31.4% (2227) of PWID initially testing HIV-negative, with 444 incident HIV infections during 6266.5 person years (py) of follow-up. Overall HIV incidence was 7.1 per 100 py (95% confidence interval 6.5-7.8), which decreased from 19.3 (13.3-28.2) in 2008-11 to 5.2 per 100 py (4.6-5.9) in 2017-20. In the full PWID incidence dataset after adjustment for various factors, recent (≤6 weeks) injecting (aHR 1.74, 1.35-2.25) and needle sharing (aHR 2.00, 1.48-2.70) were associated with higher incidence, while longer injection careers were associated with reduced incidence (aHR 0.54, 0.34-0.86, for 2-5 yrs vs <2 yrs). In a reduced dataset including data on OAT access and NSP coverage (2012-2020 for two DIC providing OAT), being on OAT during follow-up was associated with reduced HIV incidence (aHR 0.36, 0.27-0.48, compared to never being on OAT) as was high NSP coverage (aHR 0.64, 0.48-0.84, compared to medium syringe coverage). Interpretation: Although HIV incidence is high among PWID in Kachin, data suggests it has decreased since the scale-up in harm reduction interventions. Funding: US NIH, Médecins du Monde.

Modelling the impact of HIV and hepatitis C virus prevention and treatment interventions among people who inject drugs in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Kenya have high HIV (range across settings: 14-26%) and hepatitis C virus (HCV; 11-36%) prevalence. We evaluated the impact of existing and scaled-up interventions on HIV and HCV incidence among PWID in Kenya. DESIGN: HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID, calibrated to Nairobi and Kenya's Coastal region. METHODS: For each setting, we projected the impact (percent of HIV/HCV infections averted in 2020) of existing coverages of antiretroviral therapy (ART; 63-79%), opioid agonist therapy (OAT; 8-13%) and needle and syringe programmes (NSP; 45-61%). We then projected the impact (reduction in HIV/HCV incidence over 2021-2030), of scaling-up harm reduction [Full harm reduction ('Full HR'): 50% OAT, 75% NSP] and/or HIV (UNAIDS 90-90-90) and HCV treatment (1000 PWID over 2021-2025) and reducing sexual risk (by 25/50/75%). We estimated HCV treatment levels needed to reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030. RESULTS: In 2020, OAT and NSP averted 46.0-50.8% (range of medians) of HIV infections and 50.0-66.1% of HCV infections, mostly because of NSP. ART only averted 12.9-39.8% of HIV infections because of suboptimal viral suppression (28-48%). Full HR and ART could reduce HIV incidence by 51.5-64% and HCV incidence by 84.6-86.6% by 2030. Also halving sexual risk could reduce HIV incidence by 68.0-74.1%. Alongside full HR, treating 2244 PWID over 2021-2025 could reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030. CONCLUSION: Existing interventions are having substantial impact on HIV and HCV transmission in Kenya. However, to eliminate HIV and HCV, further scale-up is needed with reductions in sexual risk and HCV treatment.

Modelling the impact of HIV and HCV prevention and treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, have a high prevalence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). While needle and syringe programmes (NSP), opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are available in Tanzania, their coverage is sub-optimal. We assess the impact of existing and scaled up harm reduction (HR) interventions on HIV and HCV transmission among PWID in Dar es Salaam. METHODS: An HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID in Tanzania was calibrated to data over 2006-2018 on HIV (∼30% and ∼67% prevalence in males and females in 2011) and HCV prevalence (∼16% in 2017), numbers on HR interventions (5254 ever on OAT in 2018, 766-1479 accessing NSP in 2017) and ART coverage (63.1% in 2015). We evaluated the impact of existing interventions in 2019 and impact by 2030 of scaling-up the coverage of OAT (to 50% of PWID), NSP (75%, both combined termed "full HR") and ART (81% with 90% virally suppressed) from 2019, reducing sexual HIV transmission by 50%, and/or HCV-treating 10% of PWID infected with HCV annually. RESULTS: The model projects HIV and HCV prevalence of 19.0% (95% credibility interval: 16.4-21.2%) and 41.0% (24.4-49.0%) in 2019, respectively. For HIV, 24.6% (13.6-32.6%) and 70.3% (59.3-77.1%) of incident infections among male and female PWID are sexually transmitted, respectively. Due to their low coverage (22.8% for OAT, 16.3% for NSP in 2019), OAT and NSP averted 20.4% (12.9-24.7%) of HIV infections and 21.7% (17.0-25.2%) of HCV infections in 2019. Existing ART (68.5% coverage by 2019) averted 48.1% (29.7-64.3%) of HIV infections in 2019. Scaling up to full HR will reduce HIV and HCV incidence by 62.6% (52.5-74.0%) and 81.4% (56.7-81.4%), respectively, over 2019-2030; scaled up ART alongside full HR will decrease HIV incidence by 66.8% (55.6-77.5%), increasing to 81.5% (73.7-87.5%) when sexual risk is also reduced. HCV-treatment alongside full HR will decrease HCV incidence by 92.4% (80.7-95.8%) by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Combination interventions, including sexual risk reduction and HCV treatment, are needed to eliminate HCV and HIV among PWID in Tanzania.

Cross-sectional assessments of participants' characteristics and loss to follow-up in the first Opioid Substitution Therapy Pilot Program in Kabul, Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Kabul has over 12,000 people who inject drugs (PWID), most of them heroin users, and opioid substitution therapy has recently been introduced as an effective method to reduce opioid use. We aimed to evaluate a pilot Opioid Substitution Therapy Pilot Program (OSTPP) in Kabul, Afghanistan, particularly to (1) describe characteristics of the participants enrolled in the program and (2) identify factors associated with client retention in the OSTPP. FINDINGS: Two cross-sectional surveys evaluated participants attending the OSTPP at baseline (n = 83) and 18 months after (n = 57). Questionnaires assessed socio-demographic, drug use behavior, and general and mental health factors. After 18 months, 57 participants remained in the OSTPP. Participants lost to follow-up were younger (p < 0.01) and married (p < 0.01) and had no family contact (p < 0.01). Participants at 18 months reported no criminal activity in the last month and only two (3.5 %) reported heroin use in the last month, constituting significant decreases from baseline. CONCLUSIONS: While preliminary results are promising, further evaluation is needed to determine the feasibility of implementing OSTPP in this setting and effectiveness in reducing injection risk behaviors in Afghanistan.