St. Louis Encephalitis Virus in the Southwestern United States: A Phylogeographic Case for a Multi-Variant Introduction Event.

Since the reemergence of St. Louis Encephalitis (SLE) Virus (SLEV) in the Southwest United States, identified during the 2015 outbreak in Arizona, SLEV has been seasonally detected within Culex spp. populations throughout the Southwest United States. Previous work revealed the 2015 outbreak was caused by an importation of SLEV genotype III, which had only been detected previously in Argentina. However, little is known about when the importation occurred or the transmission and genetic dynamics since its arrival into the Southwest. In this study, we sought to determine whether the annual detection of SLEV in the Southwest is due to enzootic cycling or new importations. To address this question, we analyzed 174 SLEV genomes (142 sequenced as part of this study) using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to estimate the date of arrival into the American Southwest and characterize the underlying population structure of SLEV. Phylogenetic clustering showed that SLEV variants circulating in Maricopa and Riverside counties form two distinct populations with little evidence of inter-county transmission since the onset of the outbreak. Alternatively, it appears that in 2019, Yuma and Clark counties experienced annual importations of SLEV that originated in Riverside and Maricopa counties. Finally, the earliest representatives of SLEV genotype III in the Southwest form a polytomy that includes both California and Arizona samples. We propose that the initial outbreak most likely resulted from the importation of a population of SLEV genotype III variants, perhaps in multiple birds, possibly multiple species, migrating north in 2013, rather than a single variant introduced by one bird.

Modeling and Surveillance of Reporting Delays of Mosquitoes and Humans Infected With West Nile Virus and Associations With Accuracy of West Nile Virus Forecasts.

Importance: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of domestically acquired arboviral disease. Objective: To develop real-time WNV forecasts of infected mosquitoes and human cases. Design, Setting, and Participants: Real-time forecasts of WNV in 4 geographically dispersed locations in the United States were generated using a WNV model-inference forecasting system previously validated with retrospective data. Analysis was performed to evaluate how observational reporting delays of mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records were associated with real-time forecast accuracy. Exposures: Mosquitoes positive for WNV and human cases. Main Outcomes and Measures: Delays in reporting mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records and the association of these delays with real-time WNV forecast accuracy. Results: Substantial delays in data reporting exist for both infected mosquitoes and human WNV cases. For human cases, confirmed data (n = 37) lagged behind the onset of illness by a mean (SD) of 5.5 (2.3) weeks (range, 2-14 weeks). These human case reporting lags reduced mean forecast accuracy for the total number of human cases over the season in 110 simulated outbreaks for 2 forecasting systems by 26% and 14%, from 2 weeks before to 3 weeks after the predicted peak of infected mosquitoes. This period is the time span during which 47% of human cases are reported. Of 7064 mosquito pools, 500 (7%) tested positive; the reporting lag for these data associated with viral testing at a state laboratory was a mean (SD) of 6.6 (2.6) days (range, 4-11 days). This reporting lag was associated with decreased mean forecast accuracy for the 3 mosquito infection indicators, timing, magnitude, and season, by approximately 5% for both forecasting systems. Conclusions and Relevance: Delays in reporting human WNV disease and infected mosquito information are associated with difficulties in outbreak surveillance and decreased real-time forecast accuracy. Infected mosquito lags were short enough that skillful forecasts could still be generated for mosquito infection indicators, but the human WNV case lags were too great to support accurate forecasting in real time. Forecasting WNV is potentially an important evidence-based decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito abatement districts; however, to operationalize real-time forecasting, more resources are needed to reduce human case reporting lags between illness onset and case confirmation.

Ultra-Low Volume Application of Spinosad (Natular 2EC) as a Residual in a Hot-Arid Environment Against Aedes aegypti.

The invasive Aedes aegypti is an important disease vector increasing in frequency in hot-arid regions of the USA such as the Southwest. Within hot-arid surroundings this mosquito may be confined to peridomestic locations that tend to be cooler and humid, such as in lush, irrigated ornamental vegetation surrounding homes. However, to reach these habitat refugia, ultra-low volume (ULV) applications of insecticides targeting this mosquito must retain efficacy after being sprayed from the air or street where hot-arid conditions are prevalent. We investigated the efficacy of a biologically based larvicide, spinosad (Natular 2EC), applied as a ULV in a hot-arid environment targeting Aedes aegypti. We found that this pesticide is able to penetrate this environment and has the potential to act as a residual.

Longevity and efficacy of bifenthrin treatment on desert-pattern US military camouflage netting against mosquitoes in a hot-arid environment.

The current Department of Defense pest management system does not provide adequate protection from arthropod disease vectors to personnel deployed in support of US military operations. We hypothesized that military camouflage netting, ubiquitous around living and working areas in current US military operations in Africa and the Middle East, treated with a residual pesticide such as bifenthrin may reduce the presence of biting insects and improve the military pest management system. In this study, we examined the longevity and efficacy of bifenthrin applied to camouflage netting material at the maximum label rate of 0.03 liter formulation (7.9% AI) per 92.9 m2 against field populations of mosquitoes in southern California in a hot-arid environment similar to regions of Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Horn of Africa. We showed that bifenthrin treatment of camouflage netting was effective at reducing mosquito populations, predominantly Psorophora columbiae and Aedes vexans, by an average of up to 46% for 56 days, and could cause as much as 40% mortality in Culex quinquefasciatus in laboratory bioassays for nearly 2 months postapplication. These population reductions could translate to commensurate reductions in risk of exposure to mosquito-borne pathogens, and could potentially be effective against sand flies and filth flies.