Assessment of the impact of the vaccine pass policy on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake among Chinese adults in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Recognising the importance of attaining high vaccine coverage to mitigate the COVID-19 impact, a Vaccine Pass scheme was implemented during and after the first large Omicron wave with high mortality in older ages in Hong Kong in early 2022 requiring three doses by June 2022. We did not identify any studies evaluating the policy impact of vaccination mandates with vaccine uptake over whole policy period of time in a Chinese population. We aim to evaluate the impact of the Vaccine Pass policy on COVID-19 vaccine uptake in adults in a Chinese population in Hong Kong. METHODS: We analysed patterns in vaccine uptake and hesitancy using local data from population vaccine registry and 32 cross-sectional telephone surveys conducted from October 2021 to December 2022. The association of Vaccine Pass phases with vaccine uptake was examined using logistic regression analyses, taking into account covariates including self-risk perception, perceived self-efficacy in preventing COVID-19 and trust in government in pandemic control as well as physical distancing measures and demographics. RESULTS: The uptake of primary series and third doses was positively significantly associated with the successive stages of Vaccine Pass implementation (adjusted odds ratios ranged from 2.41 to 7.81). Other statistically significant drivers of uptake included age group, chronic condition, higher perceived personal susceptibility to COVID-19, higher trust in government, and higher educational attainment. CONCLUSION: Vaccine uptake in older adults was observed to have increased by a greater extent after the policy annoucement and implementation, under the contextual changes during and after a large Omicron wave with high mortality in Hong Kong in early 2022. Since the policy withdrawal the uptake of further booster doses has been very low in all ages. We suggest that improving voluntary booster uptake in older adults should be prioritized.

Comparison of control and transmission of COVID-19 across epidemic waves in Hong Kong: an observational study.

Background: Hong Kong contained COVID-19 for two years but experienced a large epidemic of Omicron BA.2 in early 2022 and endemic transmission of Omicron subvariants thereafter. We reflected on pandemic preparedness and responses by assessing COVID-19 transmission and associated disease burden in the context of implementation of various public health and social measures (PHSMs). Methods: We examined the use and impact of pandemic controls in Hong Kong by analysing data on more than 1.7 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and characterizing the temporal changes non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions implemented from January 2020 through to 30 December 2022. We estimated the daily effective reproductive number (Rt) to track changes in transmissibility and effectiveness of community-based measures against infection over time. We examined the temporal changes of pharmaceutical interventions, mortality rate and case-fatality risks (CFRs), particularly among older adults. Findings: Hong Kong experienced four local epidemic waves predominated by the ancestral strain in 2020 and early 2021 and prevented multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants from spreading in the community before 2022. Strict travel-related, case-based, and community-based measures were increasingly tightened in Hong Kong over the first two years of the pandemic. However, even very stringent measures were unable to contain the spread of Omicron BA.2 in Hong Kong. Despite high overall vaccination uptake (>70% with at least two doses), high mortality was observed during the Omicron BA.2 wave due to lower vaccine coverage (42%) among adults ≥65 years of age. Increases in antiviral usage and vaccination uptake over time through 2022 was associated with decreased case fatality risks. Interpretation: Integrated strict measures were able to reduce importation risks and interrupt local transmission to contain COVID-19 transmission and disease burden while awaiting vaccine development and rollout. Increasing coverage of pharmaceutical interventions among high-risk groups reduced infection-related mortality and mitigated the adverse health impact of the pandemic. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 Vaccines Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron BA.2 Infections in Hong Kong.

There is limited evidence on vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic or mild Omicron infections. We estimated that recent third doses of messenger RNA or inactivated vaccines reduced the risk of self-reported infection by 52% (95% confidence interval, 17%-73%) among randomly sampled adults during the Omicron BA.2-dominated surge in Hong Kong.

Strength and durability of antibody responses to BNT162b2 and CoronaVac.

We studied 2780 adults in Hong Kong who received CoronaVac inactivated virus vaccine (Sinovac) and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine ("Comirnaty", BioNTech/Fosun Pharma). We compared rates of antibody waning over time using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for spike receptor binding domain and a surrogate virus neutralization test. We found stronger and more durable antibody responses to two doses of the mRNA vaccine, and slightly stronger initial antibody responses to each vaccine in younger adults and women. The weaker and less durable responses following CoronaVac support earlier provision of third doses to persons who previously received two doses of this vaccine.

Association between antibiotic consumption and colon and rectal cancer development in older individuals: A territory-wide study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics may alter colorectal cancer (CRC) risk due to gut dysbiosis. We aimed to study the specific and temporal effects of various antibiotics on CRC development in older individuals. METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study. Subjects aged 60 years and older who did not have CRC diagnosed on screening/diagnostic colonoscopy diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 were recruited. Exclusion criteria were history of CRC, colectomy, inflammatory bowel disease, and CRC diagnosed within 6 months of index colonoscopy. Exposure was use of any antibiotics up to 5 years before colonoscopy. The primary outcomes were CRC diagnosed >6 m after colonoscopy. Covariates were patient demographics, history of colonic polyps/polypectomy, concomitant medication use (NSAIDs, COX-2 inhibitors, aspirin, and statins), and performance of endoscopy centers (colonoscopy volume and polypectomy rate). Stratified analysis was conducted according to nature of antibiotics and location of cancer. RESULTS: Ninety seven thousand one hundred and sixty-two eligible subjects (with 1026 [1.0%] cases of CRC) were identified, 58,704 (60.4%) of whom were exposed to antibiotics before index colonoscopy. Use of antibiotics was associated with a lower risk of cancer in rectum (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.54-0.76), but a higher risk of cancer in proximal colon (aHR: 1.63, 95%CI: 1.15-2.32). These effects differed as regards the anti-anaerobic/anti-aerobic activity, narrow-/broad-spectrum, and administration route of antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics had divergent effects on CRC development in older subjects, which varied according to the location of cancer, antibiotic class, and administration route.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of first-line treatment for chronic hepatitis B in China.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis B virus infection is an important public health problem. We analysed the cost-effectiveness of the first-line therapies, including nucleotide analogues (namely tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and entecavir) and pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in China. METHODS: A Markov model describing CHB disease progression was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of the first-line therapies, considering both satisfactory (HBeAg seroconversion) and optimal (HBsAg seroclearance) treatment goals. We examined the main outcomes, including cumulative lifetime cost per patient, incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and net monetary benefit. Uncertainty analysis was conducted to identify key influential parameters. RESULTS: Compared with the baseline strategy, Peg-IFN had the highest QALY gain for HBeAg-positive (HBeAg+) CHB patients achieving a satisfactory goal and an optimal goal (3.19 and 6.32 respectively), and TDF was the most cost-effective therapy for HBeAg-negative CHB patients ($1418/QALY) achieving a satisfactory goal. Among nucleotide analogues, TAF was the most-effective strategy and had higher acceptability to achieve an optimal goal in the Eastern region of China (under 1 x GDP per capita threshold). CONCLUSIONS: Among nucleotide analogues, TDF was the most cost-effective treatment in China for CHB patients to achieve satisfactory and optimal treatment goals, whereas TAF was cost-effective and more effective in the wealthier region. Peg-IFN was most cost-effective among HBeAg+ CHB patients to achieve both goals, with better clinical outcomes. Our findings also indicate the importance of regular monitoring during and after CHB treatment, and could inform treatment strategies in China and other countries.

Cost-Effectiveness of Anti-Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Therapy Versus Bevacizumab in KRAS Wild-Type (WT), Pan-RAS WT, and Pan-RAS WT Left-Sided Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to compare the economic value of chemotherapy plus anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (anti-EGFR) monoclonal antibody (mAb) against chemotherapy with bevacizumab (Bev, an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor mAb) as first-line treatment in KRAS wild-type (WT), pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients from the Hong Kong societal perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed Markov models and 10-year horizon to estimate costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of chemotherapy plus anti-EGFR therapy against chemotherapy plus Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and pan-RAS WT left-sided mCRC. We considered two times of the local gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (2× GDPpc; US$97,832). RESULTS: Adding anti-EGFR mAb to chemotherapy provides additional 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.29), 0.32 (95% CI 0.27-0.37), and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.63) QALY compared to adding Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and left-sided pan-RAS WT mCRC populations respectively. The corresponding ICER is US$106,847 (95% CI 87,806-134,523), US$88,565 (95% CI 75,678-105,871), US$76,537 (95% CI 67,794-87,917) per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-EGFR therapy is more cost-effective than Bev as a first-line targeted therapy in left-sided pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT, with ICER

Risk of malignancies in patients with inflammatory bowel disease who used thiopurines as compared with other indications: a territory-wide study.

AIMS: Thiopurines are believed to increase cancer risks, but data from Asian patients are sparse. We determined the risks of malignancies in thiopurine users with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) or other indications from Hong Kong. METHODS: All patients who had received thiopurines between 2005 and 2009 in Hong Kong were identified from local electronic healthcare database. Patients were followed from the start date of thiopurines until death or end of study in 2017. We excluded patients with baseline malignancy. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of all malignancies were computed against matched local general population from the cancer registry. Patients in the same diagnosis category but not exposed to thiopurines were included as controls. RESULTS: There were 7452 thiopurines users (median age 47.0 years), including 595 IBD patients, with a median follow-up of 11.2 years. Of them, 684 (9.2%) developed malignancies with an overall SIR of 2.30 (95% CI 2.13-2.48). The SIR in IBD patients who used thiopurines was 2.37 (95% CI 1.71-3.18) as compared with non-users (SIR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05-1.72). Highest risk of malignancies was observed in post-transplant patients (SIR 3.83, 95% CI 3.34-4.35), and lower risks were seen in patients with rheumatological diseases (SIR 1.46, 95% CI 1.02-2.02). CONCLUSION: IBD patients in Hong Kong who used thiopurines had 2.37-fold increase in risk of malignancies than the general population, which was higher than non-users and different from thiopurine users for other indications.

A population-based study on healthcare-seeking behaviour of persons with symptoms of respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Studies on healthcare-seeking behaviour usually adopted a patient care perspective, or restricted to specific disease conditions. However, pre-diagnosis symptoms may be more relevant to healthcare-seeking behaviour from a patient perspective. We described healthcare-seeking behaviours by specific symptoms related to respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal population-based telephone survey in Hong Kong. We collected data on healthcare-seeking behaviour specific to symptoms of respiratory and gastrointestinal-related infections and also associated demographic factors. We performed descriptive analyses and estimated the proportion of participants who sought medical consultation, types of services utilized and duration from symptom onset to healthcare seeking, by different age groups. Post-stratification was used to compensate non-response and multiple imputation to handle missing and right-censored data. RESULTS: We recruited 2564 participants who reported a total of 4370 illness episodes and 7914 symptoms. Fatigue was the most frequently reported symptom, followed by headache and runny nose, with 30-day incidence rate of 9.1, 7.7, and 7.7% respectively. 78% of the participants who had fever sought medical consultation, followed by those with rash (60%) and shortness of breath (58%). Older adults (aged ≥55y) who had symptoms including fever, sore throat, and headache had a significantly higher consultation rate comparing to the other age groups. The 30-day incidence rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) were 0.8 and 7.2% respectively, and the consultation rates among these participants were 91 and 64%. Private general practitioner clinics was the main service utilized by participants for most of the symptoms considered, especially those related to acute illness such as fever, diarrhoea and vomiting. Chinese medicine clinics were mostly likely to be visited by participants with low back pain, myalgia and fatigue. Among participants who have sought medical services, most were within 3 days of symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare-seeking behaviour were different by symptoms and age. Characterization of these patterns provides crucial parameters for estimating the full burden of common infectious diseases from facility-based surveillance system, for planning and allocation of healthcare resources.

Reporting and guidelines for mendelian randomization analysis: A systematic review of oncological studies.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses have been increasingly used to seek evidence of causal associations. This systematic review aims at characterizing and evaluating the reporting of MR analyses in oncological studies. METHODS: The PubMed database was searched to identify MR cancer studies until December 31, 2017. Two of the authors independently selected and evaluated reporting quality of the studies. Reporting quality in MR studies before 2016 and in 2016/17 was compared. RESULTS: Cancer studies with MR analyses in 2016 and 2017 accounted for 55.8% of the total number of studies identified. In the 77 eligible articles, 39 (50.6%) did not report subjects' characteristics, 53 (68.8%) did not conduct power estimation, 40 (51.9%) did not state all of the first three MR assumptions (i.e., genetic instrument is associated with exposure, is not associated with confounders, and acts on outcome only through exposure), and 31 (40.3%) did not exclude SNPs that diverged from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. More studies estimated power in 2016/2017 than before 2016 (p = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Some MR cancer studies did not sufficiently report essential information, posing obstacles for critical appraisal. This study proposes for MR analysis a guideline/checklist for future publications in cancer and other biomedical research.

Effects of Helicobacter pylori Treatment on Incidence of Gastric Cancer in Older Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection reduces the risk of gastric cancer, few data are available on its effects in older subjects. We compared the age-specific risk of gastric cancer in a large cohort of subjects who received H pylori eradication therapy vs a matched general population. METHODS: We searched the Hospital Authority database of Hong Kong to identify individuals with H pylori infection who had received a course of clarithromycin-containing eradication therapy from January 2003 through December 2012. We compared the gastric cancer incidence in this cohort with the expected incidence for the local general population by retrieving the gastric cancer incidence of the age- and sex-matched population from 2003 through 2014 (the latest available year) from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. The primary outcome was the incidence of gastric cancer development in the cohort treated for H pylori infection vs the expected number of gastric cancer cases in the general population. Analyses were conducted by a priori age groups of less than 40 years, 40-59 years, and 60 years or older. RESULTS: Among 73,237 subjects infected with H pylori who received eradication therapy, 200 (0.27%) developed gastric cancer during a median follow-up time of 7.6 years. Compared with the matched general population, the gastric cancer risk was significantly lower in subjects 60 years or older who had received H pylori treatment (standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.97; P = .02) but not in younger groups. When data were stratified based on time from H pylori treatment (less than 5 years, 5-9 years, and 10 or more years), the risk of gastric cancer was significantly lower than the general population 10 or more years after eradication in the group 40-59 years old (SIR 0.32; 95% CI, 0.08-0.88; P = .04) and the group 60 years or older (SIR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.42-0.84; P = .02) than the other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a public hospital database on Hong Kong, we associated treatment of H pylori infection with a lower risk of gastric cancer, particularly in older subjects, 10 or more years after treatment.

Direct health-care cost utilization in Hong Kong inflammatory bowel disease patients in the initial 2 years following diagnosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There are scanty data on the health-care utilization from Asia where the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising rapidly. We aim to determine the direct health-care costs in the first 2 years of diagnosis in an IBD cohort from Hong Kong and the factors associated with high cost outliers. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study that included patients newly diagnosed with IBD in a territory-wide IBD registry. Patients' clinical information, hospitalization records, investigations, and IBD treatments were retrieved for up to 2 years following diagnosis of IBD. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirty-five newly diagnosed IBD patients were included: 198 with Crohn's disease and 237 with ulcerative colitis. Total direct medical expenditure for this cohort 2 years after the IBD diagnosis was $7 072 710: hospitalizations (33%), 5-aminosalicylic acid (23%), imaging and endoscopy (17%), outpatient visits (10%), surgery (8%), and biologics (6%). Mean direct medical costs per patient-year were significantly higher for Crohn's disease ($9918) than ulcerative colitis ($6634; P, 0.001). The total direct health-care cost decreased significantly after transition to the second year (P < 0.01). High cost (> 90th percentile) outliers were associated with surgery (OR 7.1, 95% CI 2.9-17.2) and low hemoglobin on presentation (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization and 5-aminosalicylic acid usage accounted for 56% of total direct medical costs in the first 2 years of our newly diagnosed IBD patients. Direct health-care costs were higher in the first year compared with the second year of diagnosis. Surgery and low hemoglobin on presentation were associated with high cost outliers.

Towards informed decisions on breast cancer screening: Development and pilot testing of a decision aid for Chinese women.

OBJECTIVE: To pilot-test a novel, self-use breast cancer (BC) screening decision aid (DA) targeting Hong Kong (HK) Chinese women at average risk of BC. METHODS: Women were recruited through a population-based telephone survey using random digit dialling between October 2013 and January 2014. Eligible participants completed our baseline survey and then received the DA by post. Participants (n=90) completed follow-up telephone interviews one month later. RESULTS: Most participants thought that all/most DA content was presented clearly (86.7%), and was useful in helping women make screening-related decisions (88.9%). It also achieved its expected impact of improving informed decision-making and increasing shared-participation preference without increasing participants' anxiety levels. Participants showed a modest non-statistical increase in their screening knowledge scores. Older women rated the perceived severity of a BC diagnosis as significantly lower, and more educated women reported significantly lower perceived anxiety about the disease. CONCLUSION: Our DA appears acceptable and feasible for self-use by HK Chinese women who need to make an informed decision about BC screening without increasing overall anxiety levels. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: This study supports the potential of self-use DAs for cancer screening-related decision support in a Chinese population.

Vulnerability to diabetes in Chinese: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Hong Kong, in common with other Asian settings, has high rates of diabetes mellitus (DM) despite a relatively nonobese population. Given the rapid economic development in the region, most Asians grew up in limited living conditions. We examined the longitudinal mortality trends of DM. We assessed whether the first generation (birth cohorts in the 1930s) with late adolescence in a more economically developed environment had a lower risk of DM. METHODS: We used DM deaths and population figures in Hong Kong, 1976 to 2010. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose mortality rates into effects for age at mortality, calendar period of mortality, and birth cohort. RESULTS: The risk of death from DM fell for the first generation (births in the early 1930s) with late adolescence in Hong Kong, but possibly the risk rose again for the first generation (birth 1960s) affected by the obesity epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Adiposity might contribute to diabetes in Hong Kong, and similar Asian settings, however current vulnerability of many older Asians to DM in plentiful environments may be the result of limited living conditions until adulthood. Furthermore, our findings are more consistent with limited adolescent conditions than fetal undernutrition playing a role in vulnerability to DM.

Age-period-cohort projections of ischaemic heart disease mortality by socio-economic position in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population.

BACKGROUND: With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong. METHODS: Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups) to 2020 in Hong Kong using Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors. RESULTS: In the low-income group, age-standardized IHD mortality rates among women declined from 33.3 deaths in 1976-1980 to 19.7 per 100,000 in 2016-2020 (from 55.5 deaths to 34.2 per 100,000 among men). The rates in the high-income group were initially higher in both sexes, particularly among men, but this had reversed by the end of the study periods. The rates declined faster for the high-income group than for the low-income group in both sexes. The rates were projected to decline faster in the high-income group, such that by the end of the projection period the high-income group would have lower IHD mortality rates, particularly for women. Birth cohort effects varied with sex, with a marked upturn in IHD mortality around 1945, i.e., for the first generation of men to grow up in a more economically developed environment. There was no such upturn in women. Birth cohort effects were the main drivers of change in IHD mortality rates. CONCLUSION: IHD mortality rates are declining in Hong Kong and are projected to continue to do so, even taking into account greater vulnerability for the first generation of men born into a more developed environment. At the same time social disparities in IHD have reversed and are widening, partly as a result of a cohort effect, with corresponding implications for prevention.

Trends in mortality from septicaemia and pneumonia with economic development: an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong's unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching "first world" status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality. METHODS: We used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976-2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: Septicaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s. CONCLUSION: The observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.

Optimizing resource allocation for breast cancer prevention and care among Hong Kong Chinese women.

BACKGROUND: Recommendations about funding of interventions through the full spectrum of the disease often have been made in isolation. The authors of this report optimized budgetary allocations by comparing cost-effectiveness data for different preventive and management strategies throughout the disease course for breast cancer in Hong Kong (HK) Chinese women. METHODS: Nesting a state-transition Markov model within a generalized cost-effectiveness analytic framework, costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were compared to estimate average cost-effectiveness ratios for the following interventions at the population level: biennial mass mammography (ages 40-69 years or ages 40-79 years), reduced waiting time for postoperative radiotherapy (by 15% or by 25%), adjuvant endocrine therapy (either upfront aromatase inhibitor [AI] therapy or sequentially with tamoxifen followed by AI) in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive disease, targeted immunotherapy in those with tumors that over express human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, and enhanced palliative services (either at home or as an inpatient). Usual care for eligible patients in the public sector was the comparator. RESULTS: In descending order, the optimal allocation of additional resources for breast cancer would be the following: a 25% reduction in waiting time for postoperative radiotherapy (in US dollars: $5000 per QALY); enhanced, home-based palliative care ($7105 per QALY); adjuvant, sequential endocrine therapy ($17,963 per QALY); targeted immunotherapy ($62,092 per QALY); and mass mammography screening of women ages 40 to 69 years ($72,576 per QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Given the lower disease risk and different age profiles of patients in HK Chinese, among other newly emergent and emerging economies with similar transitioning epidemiologic profiles, the current findings provided direct evidence to support policy decisions that may be dissimilar to current Western practice.

Understanding sociohistorical imprint on cancer risk by age-period-cohort decomposition in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Research on trends in cancer incidence has usually examined single sites in populations that long ago completed the economic transition. The trends in 11 cancers in three groups in the recently transitioned Hong Kong Chinese population were examined to delineate the effects of economic transition and provide generalised aetiological insights. METHODS: Sex-specific Poisson models were fitted to cancer incidence in Hong Kong (1974-2003) to examine age, period and birth cohort effects. Cancers were grouped as: hormonally modulated (including breast, endometrium, ovary and prostate), infection-related (cervix, liver, nasopharynx, lymphoma and stomach) and lifestyle-related (colorectum and lung). RESULTS: Age-standardised incidence of hormonally modulated female cancers increased for the first generation (women born approximately 1940) to experience puberty in the transitioning environment of Hong Kong. Prostate cancer incidence increased, despite a downturn for the first generation growing up in Hong Kong. Incidence of infection-related cancers decreased, mainly due to birth cohort effects; coinciding with birth for liver cancer and lymphoma, with reaching adulthood for cervical and male nasopharyngeal cancers, and with a generation for stomach cancer. Lifestyle-related cancers had sex-specific declines by birth cohort. CONCLUSION: With economic transition and the associated lifestyle changes, environmentally determined levels of pubertal female hormones may drive intergenerational increases in hormonally related female cancers. Economic development, via improved living conditions, may also reduce infection-related cancers, possibly including prostate cancer; however, the effects depend on transmission dynamics and perhaps specific public health initiatives. In traditional societies, males may benefit from economic development sooner than females.

Measuring moral hazard and adverse selection by propensity scoring in the mixed health care economy of Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the presence of moral hazard, adjusted for the propensity to have self-purchased insurance policies, employer-based medical benefits, and welfare-associated medical benefits in Hong Kong. METHODS: Based on 2005 population survey, we used logistic regression and zero-truncated negative binomial/Poisson regressions to assess the presence of moral hazard by comparing inpatient and outpatient utilization between insured and uninsured individuals. We fitted each enabling factor specific to the type of service covered, and adjusted for predisposing socioeconomic and demographic factors. We used a propensity score approach to account for potential adverse selection. RESULTS: Employment-based benefits coverage was associated with increased access and intensity of use for both inpatient and outpatient care, except for public hospital use. Similarly, welfare-based coverage had comparable effect sizes as employment-based schemes, except for the total number of public ambulatory episodes. Self-purchased insurance facilitated access but did not apparently induce greater demand of services among ever users. Nevertheless, there was no evidence of moral hazard in public hospital use. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that employment-based benefits coverage lead to the greatest degree of moral hazard in Hong Kong. Future studies should focus on confirming these observational findings using a randomized design.

A multilevel analysis of the effects of neighbourhood income inequality on individual self-rated health in Hong Kong.

We examined the effect on self-rated health of neighbourhood-level income inequality in Hong Kong, which has a high and growing Gini coefficient. Data were derived from two population household surveys in 2002 and 2005 of 25,623 and 24,610 non-institutional residents aged 15 or over. We estimated neighbourhood-level Gini coefficients in each of 287 Government Planning Department Tertiary Planning Units. We used multilevel regression analysis to assess the association of neighbourhood income inequality with individual self-perceived health status. After adjustment for both individual- and household-level predictors, there was no association between neighbourhood income inequality, median household income or household-level income and self-rated health. We tested for but did not find any statistical interaction between these three income-related exposures. These findings suggest that neighbourhood income inequality is not an important predictor of individual health status in Hong Kong.