Seroprevalence, seroconversion and seroreversion of Borrelia burgdorferi-specific IgG antibodies in two population-based studies in children and adolescents, Germany, 2003 to 2006 and 2014 to 2017.

BackgroundLyme borreliosis (LB), caused by Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), is the most common tick-borne infection in Germany. Antibodies against Bb are prevalent in the general population but information on temporal changes of prevalence and estimates of seroconversion (seroincidence) and seroreversion are lacking, especially for children and adolescents.AimWe aimed at assessing antibodies against Bb and factors associated with seropositivity in children and adolescents in Germany.MethodsWe estimated seroprevalence via two consecutive cross-sectional surveys (2003-2006 and 2014-2017). Based on a longitudinal survey component, we estimated annual seroconversion/seroreversion rates.ResultsSeroprevalence was 4.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.9-4.9%) from 2003 to 2006 and 4.1% (95% CI: 3.2-5.1%) from 2014 to 2017. Seroprevalence increased with age, was higher in male children, the south-eastern regions of Germany and among those with a high socioeconomic status. The annual seroconversion rate was 0.3% and the annual seroreversion rate 3.9%. Males were more likely to seroconvert compared with females. Low antibody levels were the main predictor of seroreversion.ConclusionWe did not detect a change in seroprevalence in children and adolescents in Germany over a period of 11 years. Potential long-term changes, for example due to climatic changes, need to be assessed in consecutive serosurveys. Seroconversion was more likely among children and adolescents than among adults, representing a target group for preventive measures. Seroreversion rates are over twice as high in children and adolescents compared with previous studies among adults. Thus, seroprevalence estimates and seroconversion rates in children are likely underestimated.

Comparison of circulation patterns of mumps virus in the Netherlands and Spain (2015-2020).

Background: Mumps is a viral infection mainly characterized by inflammation of the parotid glands. Despite of vaccination programs, infections among fully vaccinated populations were reported. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends molecular surveillance of mumps based on sequencing of the small hydrophobic (SH) gene. The use of hypervariable non-coding regions (NCR) as additional molecular markers was proposed in multiple studies. Circulation of mumps virus (MuV) genotypes and variants in different European countries were described in the literature. From 2010 to 2020, mumps outbreaks caused by genotype G were described. However, this issue has not been analyzed from a wider geographical perspective. In the present study, sequence data from MuV detected in Spain and in The Netherlands during a period of 5 years (2015- March 2020) were analyzed to gain insights in the spatiotemporal spread of MuV at a larger geographical scale than in previous local studies. Methods: A total of 1,121 SH and 262 NCR between the Matrix and Fusion protein genes (MF-NCR) sequences from both countries were included in this study. Analysis of SH revealed 106 different haplotypes (set of identical sequences). Results: Of them, seven showing extensive circulation were considered variants. All seven were detected in both countries in coincident temporal periods. A single MF-NCR haplotype was detected in 156 sequences (59.3% of total), and was shared by five of the seven SH variants, as well as three minor MF-NCR haplotypes. All SH variants and MF-NCR haplotypes shared by both countries were detected first in Spain. Discussion: Our results suggest a transmission way from south to north Europe. The higher incidence rate of mumps in Spain in spite of similar immunization coverage in both countries, could be associated with higher risk of MuV exportation. In conclusion, the present study provided novel insights into the circulation of MuV variants and haplotypes beyond the borders of single countries. In fact, the use of MF-NCR molecular tool allowed to reveal MuV transmission flows between The Netherlands and Spain. Similar studies including other (European) countries are needed to provide a broader view of the data presented in this study.

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France.

Background: The seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) NL63, 229E, OC43, and HKU1 are globally endemic, yet the majority of HCoV infections remain undiagnosed. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 2389 serum samples were collected from children and adults in France in 2020. In a longitudinal cohort study, 2520 samples were collected from 898 French individuals followed up between 2020 and 2021. Antibodies to HCoVs were measured using a bead-based multiplex assay. Results: The rate of waning of anti-HCoV spike immunoglobulin G antibodies was estimated as 0.22-0.47 year-1 for children, and 0.13-0.27 year-1 for adults. Seroreversion was estimated as 0.31-1.37 year-1 in children and 0.19-0.72 year-1 in adults. The estimated seroconversion rate in children was consistent with 20%-39% of children being infected every year with each HCoV. Conclusions: The high force of infection in children indicates that HCoVs may be responsible for a substantial proportion of fever episodes experienced by children.

Estimated protection against COVID-19 based on predicted neutralisation titres from multiple antibody measurements in a longitudinal cohort, France, April 2020 to November 2021.

BackgroundThe risk of SARS-CoV-2 (re-)infection remains present given waning of vaccine-induced and infection-acquired immunity, and ongoing circulation of new variants.AimTo develop a method that predicts virus neutralisation and disease protection based on variant-specific antibody measurements to SARS-CoV-2 antigens.MethodsTo correlate antibody and neutralisation titres, we collected 304 serum samples from individuals with either vaccine-induced or infection-acquired SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Using the association between antibody and neutralisation titres, we developed a prediction model for SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralisation titres. From predicted neutralising titres, we inferred protection estimates to symptomatic and severe COVID-19 using previously described relationships between neutralisation titres and protection estimates. We estimated population immunity in a French longitudinal cohort of 905 individuals followed from April 2020 to November 2021.ResultsWe demonstrated a strong correlation between anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies measured using a low cost high-throughput assay and antibody response capacity to neutralise live virus. Participants with a single vaccination or immunity caused by infection were especially vulnerable to symptomatic or severe COVID-19. While the median reduced risk of COVID-19 from Delta variant infection in participants with three vaccinations was 96% (IQR: 94-98), median reduced risk among participants with infection-acquired immunity was only 42% (IQR: 22-66).ConclusionOur results are consistent with data from vaccine effectiveness studies, indicating the robustness of our approach. Our multiplex serological assay can be readily adapted to study new variants and provides a framework for development of an assay that would include protection estimates.

Kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Avidity Response Following Infection and Vaccination.

Serological assays capable of measuring antibody responses induced by previous infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been critical tools in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we use bead-based multiplex assays to measure IgG and IgA antibodies and IgG avidity to five SARS-CoV-2 antigens (Spike (S), receptor-binding domain (RBD), Nucleocapsid (N), S subunit 2, and Membrane-Envelope fusion (ME)). These assays were performed in several cohorts of healthcare workers and nursing home residents, who were followed for up to eleven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection or up to six months after vaccination. Our results show distinct kinetic patterns of antibody quantity (IgG and IgA) and avidity. While IgG and IgA antibody levels waned over time, with IgA antibody levels waning more rapidly, avidity increased with time after infection or vaccination. These contrasting kinetic patterns allow for the estimation of time since previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Including avidity measurements in addition to antibody levels in a classification algorithm for estimating time since infection led to a substantial improvement in accuracy, from 62% to 78%. The inclusion of antibody avidity in panels of serological assays can yield valuable information for improving serosurveillance during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.

Neutralising antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 omicron among elderly nursing home residents following a booster dose of BNT162b2 vaccine: A community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort study.

Background: The protective immunity against omicron following a BNT162b2 Pfizer booster dose among elderly individuals (ie, those aged >65 years) is not well characterised. Methods: In a community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort study taking place in France in which 75 residents from three nursing homes were enrolled, we selected 38 residents who had received a two-dose regimen of mRNA vaccine and a booster dose of Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine. We excluded individuals that did not receive three vaccine doses or did not have available sera samples. We measured anti-S IgG antibodies and neutralisation capacity in sera taken 56 (28-68) and 55 (48-64) days (median (range)) after the 2nd and 3rd vaccine doses, respectively. Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein were measured with the S-Flow assay as binding antibody units per milliliter (BAU/mL). Neutralising activities in sera were measured as effective dilution 50% (ED50) with the S-Fuse assay using authentic isolates of delta and omicron BA.1. Findings: Among the 38 elderly individuals recruited to the cohort study between November 23rd, 2020 and April 29th, 2021, with median age of 88 (range 72-101) years, 30 (78.95%) had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. After three vaccine doses, serum neutralising activity was lower against omicron BA.1 (median ED50 of 774.5, range 15.0-34660.0) than the delta variant (median ED50 of 4972.0, range 213.7-66340.0), and higher among previously infected (ie, convalescent; median ED50 against omicron: 1088.0, range 32.6-34660.0) compared with infection-naive residents (median ED50 against omicron: 188.4, range 15.0-8918.0). During the French omicron wave in December 2021-January 2022, 75% (6/8) of naive residents were infected, compared to 25% (7/30) of convalescent residents (P=0.0114). Anti-Spike antibody levels and neutralising activity against omicron BA.1 after a third BNT162b2 booster dose were lower in those with breakthrough BA.1 infection (n=13) compared with those without (n=25), with a median of 1429.9 (range 670.9-3818.3) BAU/mL vs 2528.3 (range 695.4-8832.0) BAU/mL (P=0.029) and a median ED50 of 281.1 (range 15.0-2136.0) vs 1376.0 (range 32.6-34660.0) (P=0.0013), respectively. Interpretation: This study shows that elderly individuals who received three vaccine doses elicit neutralising antibodies against the omicron BA.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2. Elderly individuals who had also been previously infected showed higher neutralising activity compared with naive individuals. Yet, breakthrough infections with omicron occurred. Individuals with breakthrough infections had significantly lower neutralising titers compared to individuals without breakthrough infection. Thus, a fourth dose of vaccine may be useful in the elderly population to increase the level of neutralising antibodies and compensate for waning immunity. Funding: Institut Pasteur, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale (FRM), European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), Agence nationale de recherches sur le sida et les hépatites virales - Maladies Infectieuses Emergentes (ANRS-MIE), Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR), Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) and Fondation de France.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Senegal: a national population-based cross-sectional survey, between October and November 2020.

Objectives: A nationwide cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted to capture the true extent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exposure in Senegal. Methods: Multi-stage random cluster sampling of households was performed between October and November 2020, at the end of the first wave of COVID-19 transmission. Anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies were screened using three distinct ELISA assays. Adjusted prevalence rates for the survey design were calculated for each test separately, and thereafter combined. Crude and adjusted prevalence rates based on test performance were estimated to assess the seroprevalence. As some samples were collected in high malaria endemic areas, the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 seroreactivity and antimalarial humoral immunity was also investigated. Results: Of the 1463 participants included in this study, 58.8% were female and 41.2% were male; their mean age was 29.2 years (range 0.20-84.8.0 years). The national seroprevalence was estimated at 28.4% (95% confidence interval 26.1-30.8%). There was substantial regional variability. All age groups were impacted, and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was comparable in the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups. An estimated 4 744 392 (95% confidence interval 4 360 164-5 145 327) were potentially infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Senegal, while 16 089 COVID-19 RT-PCR laboratory-confirmed cases were reported by the national surveillance. No correlation was found between SARS-CoV-2 and Plasmodium seroreactivity. Conclusions: These results provide a better estimate of SARS-CoV-2 dissemination in the Senegalese population. Preventive and control measures need to be reinforced in the country and especially in the south border regions.

Kinetics of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Response and Serological Estimation of Time Since Infection.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a complex antibody response that varies by orders of magnitude between individuals and over time. METHODS: We developed a multiplex serological test for measuring antibodies to 5 SARS-CoV-2 antigens and the spike proteins of seasonal coronaviruses. We measured antibody responses in cohorts of hospitalized patients and healthcare workers followed for up to 11 months after symptoms. A mathematical model of antibody kinetics was used to quantify the duration of antibody responses. Antibody response data were used to train algorithms for estimating time since infection. RESULTS: One year after symptoms, we estimate that 36% (95% range, 11%-94%) of anti-Spike immunoglobulin G (IgG) remains, 31% (95% range, 9%-89%) anti-RBD IgG remains, and 7% (1%-31%) of anti-nucleocapsid IgG remains. The multiplex assay classified previous infections into time intervals of 0-3 months, 3-6 months, and 6-12 months. This method was validated using data from a seroprevalence survey in France, demonstrating that historical SARS-CoV-2 transmission can be reconstructed using samples from a single survey. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to diagnosing previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, multiplex serological assays can estimate the time since infection, which can be used to reconstruct past epidemics.

Humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal coronaviruses in children and adults in north-eastern France.

BACKGROUND: Children are underrepresented in the COVID-19 pandemic and often experience milder disease than adolescents and adults. Reduced severity is possibly due to recent and more frequent seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) infections. We assessed the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV specific antibodies in a large cohort in north-eastern France. METHODS: In this cross-sectional seroprevalence study, serum samples were collected from children and adults requiring hospital admission for non-COVID-19 between February and August 2020. Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) were assessed using a bead-based multiplex assay, Luciferase-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay, and a pseudotype neutralisation assay. FINDINGS: In 2,408 individuals, seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 7-8% with three different immunoassays. Antibody levels to seasonal HCoV increased substantially up to the age of 10. Antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals were lowest in adults 18-30 years. In SARS-CoV-2 seronegative individuals, we observed cross-reactivity between antibodies to the four HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 Spike. In contrast to other antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, specific antibodies to sub-unit 2 of Spike (S2) in seronegative samples were highest in children. Upon infection with SARS-CoV-2, antibody levels to Spike of betacoronavirus OC43 increased across the whole age spectrum. No SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals with low levels of antibodies to seasonal HCoV were observed. INTERPRETATION: Our findings underline significant cross-reactivity between antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV, but provide no significant evidence for cross-protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection due to a recent seasonal HCoV infection. In particular, across all age groups we did not observe SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals with low levels of antibodies to seasonal HCoV. FUNDING: This work was supported by the « URGENCE COVID-19 ¼ fundraising campaign of Institut Pasteur, by the French Government's Investissement d'Avenir program, Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (Grant No. ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), and by the REACTing (Research & Action Emerging Infectious Diseases), and by the RECOVER project funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003589, and by a grant from LabEx IBEID (ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID).

Detection and viral RNA shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory specimens relative to symptom onset among COVID-19 patients in Bavaria, Germany.

We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) diagnostic sensitivity and cycle threshold (Ct) values relative to symptom onset in symptomatic coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) patients from Bavaria, Germany, of whom a subset was repeatedly tested. Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing method was used to assess the relationship between symptom onset and Ct-values. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to visualise the empirical probability of detecting viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) over time and estimate the time until clearance of viral RNA among the repeatedly tested patients. Among 721 reported COVID-19 cases, the viral RNA was detected in specimens taken between three days before and up to 48 days after symptom onset. The mean Ct-value was 28.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 28.2-29.0) with the lowest mean Ct-value (26.2) observed two days after symptom onset. Up to 7 days after symptom onset, the diagnostic sensitivity of the RT-PCR among repeatedly sampled patients (n = 208) remained above 90% and decreased to 50% at day 12 (95% CI 10.5-21.5). Our data provide valuable estimates to optimise the timing of sampling of individuals for SARS-CoV-2 detection. A considerable proportion of specimens sampled before symptom onset had Ct-values comparable with Ct-values after symptom onset, suggesting the probability of presymptomatic transmission.

The Population Structure of Borrelia lusitaniae Is Reflected by a Population Division of Its Ixodes Vector.

Populations of vector-borne pathogens are shaped by the distribution and movement of vector and reservoir hosts. To study what impact host and vector association have on tick-borne pathogens, we investigated the population structure of Borrelia lusitaniae using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Novel sequences were acquired from questing ticks collected in multiple North African and European locations and were supplemented by publicly available sequences at the Borrelia Pubmlst database (accessed on 11 February 2020). Population structure of B. lusitaniae was inferred using clustering and network analyses. Maximum likelihood phylogenies for two molecular tick markers (the mitochondrial 16S rRNA locus and a nuclear locus, Tick-receptor of outer surface protein A, trospA) were used to confirm the morphological species identification of collected ticks. Our results confirmed that B. lusitaniae does indeed form two distinguishable populations: one containing mostly European samples and the other mostly Portuguese and North African samples. Of interest, Portuguese samples clustered largely based on being from north (European) or south (North African) of the river Targus. As two different Ixodes species (i.e., I. ricinus and I. inopinatus) may vector Borrelia in these regions, reference samples were included for I. inopinatus but did not form monophyletic clades in either tree, suggesting some misidentification. Even so, the trospA phylogeny showed a monophyletic clade containing tick samples from Northern Africa and Portugal south of the river Tagus suggesting a population division in Ixodes on this locus. The pattern mirrored the clustering of B. lusitaniae samples, suggesting a potential co-evolution between tick and Borrelia populations that deserve further investigation.

Dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi-Specific Antibodies: Seroconversion and Seroreversion between Two Population-Based, Cross-Sectional Surveys among Adults in Germany.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) caused by Borrelia burgdorferi spp. is the most common human tick-borne disease in Europe. Although seroprevalence studies are conducted in several countries, rates of seroconversion and seroreversion are lacking, and they are essential to determine the risk of infection. Seropositivity was determined using a two-step approach-first, a serological screening assay, and in the event of a positive or equivocal result, a confirmatory immunoblot assay. Seroconversion and seroreversion rates were assessed from blood samples taken from participants included in two nation-wide population-based surveys. Moreover, the impact of antigen reactivity on seroreversion rates was assessed. The seroprevalence of antibodies reacting against B. burgdorferi spp. in the German population was 8.5% (95% CI 7.5-9.6) in 1997-99 and 9.3% (95% CI 8.3-10.4) in 2008-2011. Seroprevalence increased with age, up to 20% among 70-79 year-olds. The age-standardized seroprevalence remained the same. The yearly seroconversion rate was 0.45% (95% CI: 0.37-0.54), and the yearly seroreversion rate was 1.47% (95% CI: 1.24-2.17). Lower levels of antibodies were associated with seroreversion. Participants with a strong response against antigen p83 had the lowest odds on seroreversion. Given the yearly seroreversion rate of 1.47% and a seroprevalence up to 20% in the oldest age groups, at least 20% of the German population becomes infected with B. burgdorferi in their lifetime. The slight increase in seroprevalence between the two serosurveys was caused by an aging population.

Investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak in Germany resulting from a single travel-associated primary case: a case series.

BACKGROUND: In December, 2019, the newly identified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China, causing COVID-19, a respiratory disease presenting with fever, cough, and often pneumonia. WHO has set the strategic objective to interrupt spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. An outbreak in Bavaria, Germany, starting at the end of January, 2020, provided the opportunity to study transmission events, incubation period, and secondary attack rates. METHODS: A case was defined as a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by RT-PCR. Case interviews were done to describe timing of onset and nature of symptoms and to identify and classify contacts as high risk (had cumulative face-to-face contact with a confirmed case for ≥15 min, direct contact with secretions or body fluids of a patient with confirmed COVID-19, or, in the case of health-care workers, had worked within 2 m of a patient with confirmed COVID-19 without personal protective equipment) or low risk (all other contacts). High-risk contacts were ordered to stay at home in quarantine for 14 days and were actively followed up and monitored for symptoms, and low-risk contacts were tested upon self-reporting of symptoms. We defined fever and cough as specific symptoms, and defined a prodromal phase as the presence of non-specific symptoms for at least 1 day before the onset of specific symptoms. Whole genome sequencing was used to confirm epidemiological links and clarify transmission events where contact histories were ambiguous; integration with epidemiological data enabled precise reconstruction of exposure events and incubation periods. Secondary attack rates were calculated as the number of cases divided by the number of contacts, using Fisher's exact test for the 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Patient 0 was a Chinese resident who visited Germany for professional reasons. 16 subsequent cases, often with mild and non-specific symptoms, emerged in four transmission generations. Signature mutations in the viral genome occurred upon foundation of generation 2, as well as in one case pertaining to generation 4. The median incubation period was 4·0 days (IQR 2·3-4·3) and the median serial interval was 4·0 days (3·0-5·0). Transmission events were likely to have occurred presymptomatically for one case (possibly five more), at the day of symptom onset for four cases (possibly five more), and the remainder after the day of symptom onset or unknown. One or two cases resulted from contact with a case during the prodromal phase. Secondary attack rates were 75·0% (95% CI 19·0-99·0; three of four people) among members of a household cluster in common isolation, 10·0% (1·2-32·0; two of 20) among household contacts only together until isolation of the patient, and 5·1% (2·6-8·9; 11 of 217) among non-household, high-risk contacts. INTERPRETATION: Although patients in our study presented with predominately mild, non-specific symptoms, infectiousness before or on the day of symptom onset was substantial. Additionally, the incubation period was often very short and false-negative tests occurred. These results suggest that although the outbreak was controlled, successful long-term and global containment of COVID-19 could be difficult to achieve. FUNDING: All authors are employed and all expenses covered by governmental, federal state, or other publicly funded institutions.

Additional Evidence on Serological Correlates of Protection against Measles: An Observational Cohort Study among Once Vaccinated Children Exposed to Measles.

To assess correlates of protection against measles and against subclinical measles virus (MV) infection, we recruited once-vaccinated children from geographic regions associated with increased MV circulation and/or at schools with low vaccination coverage in the Netherlands. Paired blood samples were collected shortly after onset of the measles outbreak and after the outbreak. A questionnaire was used to document the likelihood of exposure to MV and occurrence of measles-like symptoms. All blood samples were tested for MV-specific antibodies with five different assays. Correlates of protection were assessed by considering the lowest neutralizing antibody levels in children without MV infection, and by ROC analyses. Among 91 participants, two seronegative children (2%) developed measles, and an additional 19 (23%) experienced subclinical MV infection. The correlate of protection against measles was lower than 0.345 IU/mL. We observed a decreasing attack rate of subclinical MV infection with increasing levels of specific antibodies until 2.1 IU/mL, above which no subclinical MV infections were detected. The ROC analyses found a correlate of protection of 1.71 IU/mL (95% CI 1.01-2.11) for subclinical MV infection. Our correlates of protection were consistent with previous estimates. This information supports the analyses of serosurveys to detect immunity gaps that require targeted intervention strategies.

The Reduction of Measles Transmission During School Vacations.

BACKGROUND: Historically, measles incidence has shown clear seasonal patterns driven by the school calendar, but since the start of mass vaccination in developed countries there are only occasional outbreaks, which may have changed the effect of school vacations on transmission. In 2013-2014, a large measles epidemic took place in a low vaccination coverage area in The Netherlands, allowing us to quantify current-day measles transmission and the effect of school vacations. METHODS: We fitted a dynamic transmission model to notification and hospitalization time series data of the Dutch 2013-2014 measles epidemic. Our primary aim was to estimate the reduction in contact rate during school vacations and the number of cases averted due to the vacation. In addition, because the summer vacations were time-staggered in three regions, we could distinguish within-region from across-region effects of school vacations. RESULTS: We estimated a 53% (95% credible interval: 45%, 60%) reduction in contact rate during school vacations, resulting in 4900 (3400-7100) averted cases (estimated outbreak size: 16,600 [12,600-23,200]). There was a shift from mainly local transmission during school term to mainly cross-regional transmission during vacations. With seroprevalence data, we derived a current-day estimate of 15 to 27 for R0 (number of secondary cases per primary case in a susceptible population). CONCLUSIONS: School vacations are associated with greatly reduced overall measles transmission. However, transmission is not eliminated, and increased long-distance travel may even promote spread to other areas. Therefore, we estimate that school closure is unlikely to prevent measles epidemics unless there are still few cases and the community is well vaccinated.

A novel measles outbreak control strategy in the Netherlands in 2013-2014 using a national electronic immunization register: A study of early MMR uptake and its determinants.

BACKGROUND: During a large measles outbreak in the Netherlands in 2013-2014, infants aged 6-14months living in municipalities with low (<90%) measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) coverage were individually invited for an early MMR using the national electronic immunization register, Præventis. We estimated uptake of early MMR prior to and during the 2013-2014 outbreak and assessed determinants for early MMR vaccination. METHODS: We obtained vaccination records from Præventis, and defined early MMR as vaccination before 415days (13months) of age. A multi-level multivariable logistic regression model, restricted to infants with three diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus-polio (DPTP) vaccinations was used to examine the association between early MMR uptake and sex, parents' country of birth, socioeconomic status (SES; at postcode level) and voting proportions for the Reformed Political Party (SGP; at municipal level), used as a proxy for religious objections towards vaccination. RESULTS: In the 29 municipalities with low MMR coverage, uptake of early MMR was 0.5-2.2% prior to the outbreak. Between July 2013 and March 2014, 5,800 (57%) invited infants received an early MMR. Among infants with three DPTP, 70% received an early MMR. Only 1% of infants without prior DPTP received an early MMR. Lower early MMR uptake was associated with a higher SGP voter-ship (OR 0.89 per 5% increase, 95%CI 0.83-0.96), parents' with unknown country of birth (OR 0.66 95%CI 0.47-0.93) and compared with very high SES, high SES had significantly lower early MMR uptake (OR 0.66 95%CI 0.50-0.87). DISCUSSION: This is the first study describing use of Præventis during an outbreak and to assess determinants of early MMR uptake. More than half of invited infants obtained an early MMR. SES, parents' with unknown country of birth and religious objections towards vaccination were found to be associated with lower early MMR uptake. In future outbreaks, these determinants could be used to tailor intervention strategies.

Effectiveness of Early Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination Among 6-14-Month-Old Infants During an Epidemic in the Netherlands: An Observational Cohort Study.

Background: Routinely, the first measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine dose is given at 14 months of age in the Netherlands. However, during a measles epidemic in 2013-2014, MMR vaccination was also offered to 6-14-month-olds in municipalities with <90% MMR vaccination coverage. We studied the effectiveness of the early MMR vaccination schedule. Methods: Parents of all infants targeted for early MMR vaccination were asked to participate. When parent(s) suspected measles, their infant's saliva was tested for measles-specific antibodies. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed and self-reported measles was estimated using Cox regression, with VE calculated as 1 minus the hazard ratio. Results: Three vaccinated and 10 unvaccinated laboratory-confirmed cases occurred over observation times of 106631 and 23769 days, respectively. The unadjusted VE against laboratory-confirmed measles was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79%-98%). After adjustment for religion and sibling's vaccination status, the VE decreased to 71% (-72%-95%). For self-reported measles, the unadjusted and adjusted VE was 67% (40%-82%) and 43% (-12%-71%), respectively. Conclusions: Infants vaccinated between 6 and 14 months of age had a lower risk of measles than unvaccinated infants. However, part of the effect was caused by herd immunity, since vaccinated infants were more likely to be surrounded by other vaccinated individuals.

Large measles epidemic in the Netherlands, May 2013 to March 2014: changing epidemiology.

Since the early 1990s, the Netherlands has experienced several large measles epidemics, in 1992-94, 1999-2000 and in 2013-14. These outbreaks mainly affected orthodox Protestants, a geographically clustered population with overall lower measles-mumps-rubella first dose (MMR-1) vaccination coverage (60%) than the rest of the country (> 95%). In the 2013-14 epidemic described here, which occurred between 27 May 2013 and 12 March 2014, 2,700 cases were reported. Several control measures were implemented including MMR vaccination for 6-14-month-olds and recommendations to reduce the risk in healthcare workers. The vast majority of reported cases were unvaccinated (94%, n = 2,539), mostly for religious reasons (84%, n = 2,135). The median age in the epidemic was 10 years, 4 years older than in the previous epidemic in 1999-2000. A likely explanation is that the inter-epidemic interval before the 2013-2014 epidemic was longer than the interval before the 1999-2000 epidemic. The size of the unvaccinated orthodox Protestant community is insufficient to allow endemic transmission of measles in the Netherlands. However, large epidemics are expected in the future, which is likely to interfere with measles elimination in the Netherlands and elsewhere.

Economic Costs of Measles Outbreak in the Netherlands, 2013-2014.

In 2013 and 2014, the Netherlands experienced a measles outbreak in orthodox Protestant communities with low measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage. Assessing total outbreak costs is needed for public health outbreak preparedness and control. Total costs of this outbreak were an estimated $4.7 million.