Predicted shortage of vascular surgeons in the United Kingdom: A matter for debate?

BACKGROUND: Vascular surgery became a new independent surgical specialty in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013. In this matter for debate we discuss the question, is there a "shortage of vascular surgeons in the United Kingdom?" MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data derived from the "Vascular Surgery United Kingdom Workforce Survey 2014", NHS Employers Electronic Staff Records (ESR), and the National Vascular Registry (NVR) surgeon-level public report to estimate current and predict future workforce requirements. RESULTS: We estimate there are approximately 458 Consultant Vascular Surgeons for the current UK population of 63 million, or 1 per 137,000 population. In several UK Regions there are a large number of relatively small teams (3 or less) of vascular surgeons working in separate NHS Trusts in close geographical proximity. In developed countries, both the number and complexity of vascular surgery procedures (open and endovascular) per capita population is increasing, and concerns have been raised that demand cannot be met without a significant expansion in numbers of vascular surgeons. Additional workforce demand arises from the impact of population growth and changes in surgical work-patterns with respect to gender, working-life-balance and 7-day services. CONCLUSIONS: We predict a future shortage of Consultant Vascular Surgeons in the UK and recommend an increase in training numbers and an expansion in the UK Consultant Vascular Surgeon workforce to accommodate population growth, facilitate changes in work-patterns and to create safe sustainable services.

Comment on "Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures".

Steinman et al. (Reports, 27 February 2015, p. 988) argue that appropriately rescaled multimodel ensemble-mean time series provide an unbiased estimate of the forced climate response in individual model simulations. However, their procedure for demonstrating the validity of this assertion is flawed, and the residual intrinsic variability so defined is in fact dominated by the actual forced response of individual models.

The vascular surgery workforce: a survey of consultant vascular surgeons in the UK, 2014.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to describe the demographics, training, and practice characteristics of consultant vascular surgeons across the UK to provide an assessment of current, and inform future prediction of workforce needs. METHODS: A questionnaire was developed using a modified Delphi process to generate questionnaire items. The questionnaire was emailed to all consultant vascular surgeons (n = 450) in the UK who were members of the Vascular Society of Great Britain & Ireland. RESULTS: 352 consultant vascular surgeons from 95 hospital trusts across the UK completed the survey (78% response rate). The mean age was 50.6 years old, the majority (62%) were mid-career, but 24% were above the age of 55. Currently, 92% are men and only 8% women. 93% work full-time, with 60% working >50 hours, and 21% working >60 hours per week. The average team was 5 to 6 (range 2-10) vascular surgeons, with 23% working in a large team of ≥8. 17% still work in small teams of ≤3. Over 90% of consultant vascular surgeons perform the major index vascular surgery procedures (aneurysm repair, carotid endarterectomy, infra-inguinal bypass, amputation). While 84% perform standard endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR), <50% perform more complex endovascular aortic therapy. The majority of vascular surgeons "like their job" (85%) and are "satisfied" (69%) with their job. 34% of consultant vascular surgeons indicated they were "extremely likely" to retire within the next 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first detailed analysis of the new specialty of vascular surgery as practiced in the UK. There is a need to plan for a significant expansion in the consultant vascular surgeon workforce in the UK over the next 10 years to maintain the status quo.

Remodelling of vascular (surgical) services in the UK.

The last few years have seen major changes in the delivery of vascular services in the UK. An increasingly elderly population with greater expectations from their medical services has challenged established methods. It also became apparent that outcomes for low volume, high risk index vascular interventions such as abdominal aortic aneurysm repair were poor in the UK compared to the rest of Europe. Other ongoing challenges were the introduction of a national aortic aneurysm screening programme and the development of vascular surgery as a separate speciality. This article details the approach taken to modernise vascular services in the UK, using a quality framework agreed by vascular specialists, which drove the structural change to move vascular interventions into fewer, higher volume centres. The introduction of modern networks is designed to maintain services in surrounding hospitals without on site vascular inpatient services. The initial effects of this service remodelling are positive, with elective aortic aneurysm mortality rates falling nationally from 7.5 to 2.4 per cent.

Descending thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair: antegrade approach via ascending aortic conduit.

Challenging access situations continue to arise in endovascular aneurysm repair, despite evolving arterial access techniques. We report a modified access approach, where an ascending aortic conduit was successfully used for antegrade delivery of a thoracic endograft to repair a descending thoracic aortic aneurysm, in a patient with previous surgical ligation of the infra-renal aorta.

Impact on renal function after endovascular aneurysm repair with uncovered supra-renal fixation assessed by serum cystatin C.

OBJECTIVE: Supra-renal fixation in endovascular aneurysm repair (SR-EVR) is used to improve the proximal seal of aortic stent grafts and appears to have minimal effect on serum creatinine. Serum cystatin C (CC) is a more sensitive marker of renal injury and, unlike creatinine, is unaffected by non-renal influence. The aim of this study was to assess the true renal effect of SR-EVR using this superior renal index. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing SR-EVR were prospectively recruited and compared to control groups undergoing open aneurysm repair (OR) and colorectal resection (CR). Serum CC and creatinine clearance (CrC) were determined pre-operatively and at 3, 6 and 12 months post-surgery. Renal function was compared using analyses of covariance (ANCOVA). RESULTS: Sixty-five patients (M:F; 52:13, median age 74 years) were enrolled (24 SR-EVR, 28 OR, 13 CR). Pre-operative renal function and risk factors were comparable (CC 1.04mg/l, SR-EVR; 0.96mg/l, OR; 0.97mg/l, CR). Adjusting for baseline renal function, there was no significant difference in CC or CrC between study and both control groups at 3, 6 or 12-months post-operatively. CONCLUSION: Using cystatin C as a more sensitive renal index, there was no detectable evidence of kidney dysfunction at up to one-year following EVR with uncovered bare-metal supra-renal fixation.

Secondary interventions and mortality following endovascular aortic aneurysm repair: device-specific results from the UK EVAR trials.

OBJECTIVES: To compare secondary intervention rate, aneurysm-related mortality and all-cause mortality for patients receiving elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for large abdominal aortic aneurysms with different commercially available endografts. DESIGN, MATERIALS & METHODS: In the EVAR 1 and 2 multi-centre trials, the principal endografts used were Zenith and Talent and these are compared in 505 patients from EVAR 1 and 143 patients from EVAR 2 followed-up for an average of 3.8 years until 31st December 2005. Outcomes were analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression, with adjustments for potential confounding risk factors and centre. Gore/Excluder graft outcomes also are reported. RESULTS: Across the two trials the secondary intervention rates were 7.0 and 9.4 per 100 patient years for Zenith and Talent grafts respectively, adjusted hazard ratio 0.77 [95%CI 0.52-1.12]. Aneurysm-related mortality was 1.2 and 1.4 per 100 patient years for Zenith and Talent grafts respectively, adjusted hazard ratio 0.90 [95%CI 0.37-2.19]. All-cause mortality was 8.5 and 10.3 per 100 patient years for Zenith and Talent grafts respectively, adjusted hazard ratio 0.81 [95%CI 0.58-1.14]. The direction of all results was similar when the two trials were analysed separately. CONCLUSION: There was no significant difference in the performance of the two endografts but the direction of results was slightly in favour of patients with Zenith (versus Talent) endografts.

Peripheral seeding of mycotic aneurysms from an infected aortic stent graft.

Aortic stent graft infection is rare and there are no reported cases of seeded peripheral mycotic aneurysms complicating this condition. We describe the case of a 54 year old man who developed a late stent graft infection at three years, resulting in the peripheral seeding of three mycotic aneurysms with two incidents of rupture. He was successfully treated with extra-anatomic bypass of the aorta and both surgical and endovascular repair of his peripherally seeded mycotic aneurysms.

The mid-term effect of bare metal suprarenal fixation on renal function following endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the mid term effect of proximal bare metal fixation design on renal function in patients undergoing endovascular repair (EVR) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). METHODS: Consecutive EVR patients for AAA from December 1995-2001 were included and grouped to either infrarenal (Group 1) or uncovered suprarenal (Group 2) fixation. Peri-operative renal function and at 6, 12 and 24 months was determined by serum creatinine (sCr mmol l(-1)) and Cockroft-Gault creatinine clearance (CrC ml min(-1)). Changes in renal function were compared using non-parametric analysis. RESULTS: Of the 179 EVR procedures during this six-year period, paired renal data was available for 135 patients at a minimal follow-up of 6 months (Gp1, n = 63; Gp2, n = 72). Median pre-EVR sCr and CrC were 113, 57 in Group 1 and 108, 58 in Group 2, p = NS. There was no significant deterioration in renal function within or between either group at 2 years post-EVR: median sCr, CrC values were 118, 56 (Group 1) and 111, 56 (Group 2), all p = NS. CONCLUSION: This study suggests mid-term renal function remains unaffected following EVR of AAA, irrespective of proximal fixation type. Designs to improve stent durability and EVR applicability do not appear to compromise renal function.

The Vanguard endovascular stent-graft: mid-term results from a single centre.

PURPOSE: Despite initial enthusiasm for endovascular aortic repair, few descriptions of longer-term follow-up of any endovascular device have been published. This paper represents the experience of a single centre with the Vanguard device over a 5-year period. METHODS: Fifty-five patients with a median age of 71 years (range 45-87 years) and aneurysm diameter of 59 mm (45-84 mm) received a bifurcated Vanguard stent-graft between December 1995 and July 1999. Follow-up was according to the Eurostar criteria (clinical assessment, plain film radiography and computed tomography) at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months and then annually thereafter. RESULTS: All primary stent deployments were successful. Median duration of surgery was 120 min (70-360 min). Median post-operative stay was 3 days (1-19 days) with a peri-operative mortality of 5.5%. In the follow-up period (median 40 months, range 6-64 months) there was one aneurysm associated death, and 14 deaths due to other causes. There have been three device migrations, 12 occluded graft limbs, four type II endoleaks and nine type III endoleaks. At 48 months, this has resulted in a survival rate of 67%, an endoleak free survival of 81% and intervention free survival of 59% (Kaplan-Meier). CONCLUSION: Medium term results with the Vanguard device appear to be at least equivalent to open repair with regard to morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, several delayed complications appear to be related to endograft limb distortion. Important lessons have been learnt in relation to the deployment of bifurcated endografts to reduce the incidence of secondary limb related problems.

Outcome following surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

INTRODUCTION: the diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) relies heavily on subjective rather than objective assessment criteria. Subsequently, published results after surgical decompression vary considerably. This study aimed to use a symptom-based patient-directed questionnaire to assess the outcome after decompression for TOS. METHODS: sixty patients who underwent decompression procedures were identified from a prospectively maintained vascular database. Patient records were analysed for details regarding initial presentation, investigation, type of procedure used for decompression and management. Outcome questionnaires were sent to all identified patients to give a patient-based outcome measure. RESULTS: eighty-four per cent of patients responded. In 90% of these patients there was an improvement in symptoms post-surgery with a median follow up of 43 months. The results were not influenced by the procedure or approach used. CONCLUSION: surgery remains an effective tool in the management of TOS. A simple patient-directed questionnaire as used in this study could assist in the standardisation of outcome assessment.

A dual strategic approach to mega-aortic aneurysms.

Staged resection of mega-aortas with Borst's two-stage elephant trunk (ETK) is the gold standard but has a higher mortality and morbidity compared to single-segment repair. We report the first case of combined surgical and covered-stent approach in Europe. Location and dilatation of the proximal landing zone accounts for the majority of failures in covered-stenting but an ETK is stable, easy to localise and gives an excellent seal. In high-risk cases where surgical resection is not offered, stenting is an option. The lack of a thoracotomy is an advantage in often-frail patients recovering from stage-I and shortens ITU-stay. Therefore, a combined approach is an acceptable alternative in selected individuals.