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BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation are considered critically ill and have a higher risk of short-term mortality. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to evaluate their 90-day survival and identify factors that affect disease progression. METHODS: We included patients from September 2008 to December 2016 (n = 387 in the derivation group) and from January 2017 to August 2020 (n = 157 in the validation group). LASSO regression and Cox multivariate risk regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of the 90-day mortality risk, and a nomogram was constructed. The performance of a model was analyzed based on the C-index, area under the receiver operating curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total bilirubin >10 upper limit of normal, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lymphocyte and monocyte ratios ≤2.33, white blood cells, and hemoglobin were identified as independent risk factors affecting the 90-day mortality risk of patients and the nomogram was developed. A nomogram demonstrated excellent model predictive accuracy in both the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.976 and 0.945), which was better than other commonly used liver scoring models (p < 0.05). The nomogram also performed good calibration ability and more clinical net benefit. According to the nomogram score, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Mortality was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The nomogram could accurately predict the 90-day mortality risk in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation, helping to identify high-risk patients and personalize treatment at their first admission.
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BACKGROUND: Stanford type B aortic dissection (TB-AD) is a life-threatening vascular condition with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Currently, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) is widely performed to treat TB-AD, and some studies have analyzed the influence of stents on hemodynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. However, the accuracy of TB-AD simulation models are not satisfactory, they are often constructed as a regular ideal model. Furthermore, it is unclear which tear should be closed for the best treatment when there are multi entry tears. PURPOSE: The aims of this paper were to provide an assessment method for the selection of the surgical closure location for type B aortic dissection. Five 3D models of multiple entry tears in type B aortic dissection were produced using real patient computed tomography (CT) images to perform hemodynamic analyses of flow velocity streamlines, wall pressure, and wall shear stress. METHODS: A Boolean operation was adopted to establish 3D models with multiple entry tears in type B aortic dissection based on patient-specific CT images. The Mimics and Ansys plug-in The Integrated Computer Engineering and Manufacturing code for Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICEM CFD) software were applied to mesh the 3D models. The flow velocity streamlines, wall pressures, and wall shear stresses were then analyzed in the finite element analysis software Fluent. Five 3D models were produced to compare the hemodynamic characteristics of different entry tear numbers, as well as the changes of different closure positions before and after closure. RESULTS: The false lumen of the model with two entry tears had a higher wall pressure than that of model with multiple entry tears, which may tend to squeeze the true lumen and expand the false lumen. The load distribution of the vessel in the model with multiple entry tears had a more balanced flow velocity, and its wall pressure and shear stress were lower than that of model with two entry tears. For aortic dissection with two entry tears, the closure of the proximal entry tear was recommended, which helped to isolate and thrombose the false lumen, thereby improving the blood supply function of the true lumen. Because the postoperative vascular flow velocity and mechanical load performance of the vascular wall were still higher than those of normal blood vessels, the postoperative blood vessels remained pathological, and TEVAR did not restore the blood vessels to their original healthy state. CONCLUSIONS: Type B aortic dissection with two entry tears tend to squeeze the true lumen and expand the false lumen, resulting in a new entry tear and deterioration into multiple entry type B aortic dissection. The model of the vessel with multiple entry tears had a more balanced distribution in flow velocity and a smaller wall pressure and shear stress than that of the vessel with two entry tears. The closure of the proximal entry tear was considered an ideal solution for type B aortic dissection with two entry tears.
