Development and external validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions in a non-high-incidence area.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions (UGPL) is the major preventable disease in non-high-incidence area. A prognostic nomogram was constructed to predict and identity susceptible population of UGPL before endoscope screening. METHODS: We recruited 300 ,016 eligible participants for upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) screening aged 40-74 years from two cities in Hunan province from 2012 to 2019. Individuals at high risk of UGC on basis of questionnaire estimation underwent endoscopic screening. Participants in two cities accepting endoscopy were used as training and external validation cohorts, respectively. A nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors of UGPL determined in multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 35, 621 with high risk for UGC, 10, 364 subjects undertook endoscopy (participation rate of 29.1%). The detection rate for UGPL was 4.55%. The nomogram showed that age, gender, mental trama, picked food, and atrophic gastritis history in a descending order were significant contributors to UGPL risk. The C-index value of internal and external validation of the model is 0.612 and 0.670, respectively. The calibration data for UGPL showed optimal agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. Furthermore, high-risk and low-risk group divided based on score from the nomogram predicted a significantly distinct detection rate. CONCLUSION: The nomogram provides screening workers a simple and accurate tool for identifying individuals at a higher risk of UGPL as primary screening before endoscopy among Chinese population in non-high-risk areas, thus reducing the incidence of UGC by improving the UGPL detection.

Community-Based Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening in a Randomized Controlled Trial: Baseline Results in a Non-high-incidence Area.

A cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted to evaluate to the effectiveness of reducing mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) and feasibility of screening through a questionnaire combined with endoscopy in non-high-incidence urban areas in China. The trial design, recruitment performance, and preliminary results from baseline endoscopy are reported. Seventy-five communities in two urban cities with a non-high-incidence of UGC were randomized to a screening endoscopy arm (n = 38) or a control arm (n = 37). In the screening arm, individuals at high risk of UGC underwent endoscopic screening. The primary outcome was the UGC mortality, and secondary outcomes included the UGC detection rate, incidence rate, survival rate, and clinical stage at the time of diagnosis. A total of 10,416 and 9,565 individuals were recruited into the screening and control arms, respectively. The participation rate was 74.3%. In the screening arm, 5,242 individuals (50.3%) were estimated to be high-risk. Among them, 2,388 (45.6%) underwent endoscopic screening. Age and household income were associated with undergoing endoscopy. Three early esophageal cancer (0.13%), one gastric cancer (0.04%), 29 precancerous esophageal lesions (1.21%), and 53 precancerous gastric lesions (2.22%) were detected. Age, sex, a family history of cancer, intake of meat-egg-milk frequently, superficial gastritis, and clinical symptoms of gastric cancer were associated with the presence of precancerous lesions. The detection rate was low using endoscopic screening in non-high-incidence area given the relatively low compliance rate. These findings provide a reference for designing effective community-based UGC screening strategies in non-high-incidence urban areas.