Dynamic characteristics and synergistic effects of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) supplies many ecosystem services (ESs) that maintain local and global pan-Asian populations and ecosystems. The effects of climate change on ES provision in the QTP will have far-reaching impacts on the region and the many downstream ecosystems and countries that depend on ESs from the "Third Pole". This study undertook a systematic assessment of ES provision, trade-offs and synergies between four ESs (raw material provision, water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage) under future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway). The results show that: (1) the total amount of the four ESs on the QTP is predicted to increase from 1980 to 2100 for three climate change scenarios. (2) The spatial pattern of ESs on the QTP will not change significantly in the future, and the grassland and forest ESs in the central and southern regions are predicted to increase significantly. (3) The synergistic interactions among ESs were generally consistent at three spatial scales (10 km (pixel), county and watershed scales), but with more significant synergistic effects at the watershed scale. This demonstrates the necessity for the examination of scale-dependent ES dynamics and interactions. This study will supply a reference for further research on long-term ES assessments, especially the dynamic ES changes and the spatial scale dependency of the ES interactions, and provide evidence-based strategies for formulating ecosystem management on the QTP under climate change.

Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in African countries during 1984‒2014.

The potential for mitigating climate change is growing worldwide, with an increasing emphasis on reducing CO2 emissions and minimising the impact on the environment. African continent is faced with the unique challenge of climate change whilst coping with extreme poverty, explosive population growth and economic difficulties. CO2 emission patterns in Africa are analysed in this study to understand primary CO2 sources and underlying driving forces further. Data are examined using gravity model, logarithmic mean divisia index and Tapio's decoupling indicator of CO2 emissions from economic development in 20 selected African countries during 1984-2014. Results reveal that CO2 emissions increased by 2.11% (453.73 million ton) over the research period. Gravity centre for African CO2 emissions had shifted towards the northeast direction. Population and economic growth were primary driving forces of CO2 emissions. Industrial structure and emission efficiency effects partially offset the growth of CO2 emissions. The economic growth effect was an offset factor in central African countries and Zimbabwe due to political instability and economic mismanagement. Industrial structure and emission efficiency were insufficient to decouple economic development from CO2 emissions and relieve the pressure of population explosion on CO2 emissions in Africa. Thus, future efforts in reducing CO2 emissions should focus on scale-up energy-efficient technologies, renewable energy update, emission pricing and long-term green development towards sustainable development goals by 2030.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China.