Erratum to "Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019" [Heliyon 9(2), February 2, 2023, Article e13432].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13432.].

Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019.

Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer. Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Injuryrelated mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province during 2014-2021 / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To explore injury related mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan, to provide reliable data support for injury prevention among children aged 0-14 years in the region.@*Methods@#A descriptive analysis on child mortality data from 2014 to 2021 of injuries collected from 28 death surveillance spots in Hunan was conducted.@*Results@#The mortality rate of injures among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan decreased from 20.19/100 000 (adjusted mortality: 25.32/100 000) in 2014 to 11.05/100 000 (adjusted mortality: 13.71/100 000) in 2021 (APC=-9.4%, P <0.05), and the annual average mortality rate was 14.86/100 000, there were 17.29/100 000 boys and 11.96/100 000 girls, with statistically significant gender differences ( χ 2= 27 835.54 , P <0.05). The average mortality rate of drowning among different causes of injury and death was 5.98/100 000, followed by the average mortality rate of road traffic accidents of 3.38/100 000.@*Conclusion@#There is a downward trend of deaths due to injures for children aged 0-14 years in Hunan during 2014-2021, with an obvious gender difference. Drowning and traffic accidents are the main cause of injury related deaths for children aged 0-14 years. Steady monitoring of children injury is vital for children injury prevention. Children safety and health education, and related effective policies and legal provisions should be developed and enhanced.

Projection of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases for 2025: a model based study from Hunan Province, China, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, the United Nations set a target to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% by 2025. While studies have reported the target in some countries, no studies have been done in China. This study aims to project the ability to reach the target in Hunan Province, China, and establish the priority for future interventions. METHODS: We conducted the study during 2019-2020. From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, we extracted death data for Hunan during 1990-2016 for four main NCDs, namely cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. We generated estimates for 2025 by fitting a linear regression to the premature mortality over the most recent trend identified by a joinpoint regression model. We also estimated excess premature mortality attributable to unfavorable changes over time. RESULTS: The rate of premature mortality from all NCDs in Hunan will be 19.5% (95% CI [19.0%-20.1%]) by 2025, with the main contributions being from CVD (8.2%, 95% CI [7.9%-8.5%]) and cancer (7.9%, 95% CI [7.8%-8.1%]). Overall, it will be impossible to achieve the target, with a relative reduction of 16.4%. Women may be able to meet the target except with respect to cancer, and men will not except with respect to chronic respiratory diseases. Most of the unfavorable changes have occurred since 2008-2009. DISCUSSION: More urgent efforts, especially for men, should be exerted in Hunan by integrating population-wide interventions into a stronger health-care system. In the post lock-down COVID-19 era in China, reducing the NCD risk factors can also lower the risk of death from COVID-19.

Severe acute respiratory infection risk following glucocorticosteroid treatment in uncomplicated influenza-like illness resulting from pH1N1 influenza infection: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Current studies regarding glucocorticosteroid treatment of influenza have only estimated risk of critical illness or death which can be easily confounded by timing of treatment administration. We used severe acute respiratory infection (sARI) as an endpoint and investigated risk associated with receiving glucocorticosteroids before sARI onset. METHODS: sARI cases were defined as influenza-like illness (ILI) with pH1N1 infection and respiratory distress. Controls were defined as pH1N1 cases other than sARI and randomly selected from the community. We compared glucocorticosteroids and other medications used before sARI onset using a matched case control study adjusted for age group as well as underlying disease. Time-dependent risk and dose responses at different time periods over the course of sARI cases were also examined. RESULTS: Of the sARI cases, 34% received glucocorticosteroids before sARI onset compared to 3.8% of controls during equivalent days (ORM-H = 17,95%CI = 2.1-135). Receiving glucocorticosteroids before sARI onset increased risk of developing subsequent critical illness or death (ORM-H = 5.7,95%CI = 1.6-20.2), and the ORM-H increased from 5.7 to 8.5 for continued glucocorticosteroid use after sARI onset. However, only receiving glucocorticosteroids after sARI onset did not increase risk of severe illness (ORM-H = 1.1,95%CI = 0.3-4.6). Each increase in glucocorticosteroids dose of 1 mg/kg/day before sARI onset resulted in an increase of 0.62 (R2 = 0.87) in the pMEWS score at the time of sARI onset. CONCLUSIONS: Early glucocorticosteroid treatment increased risk of sARI and subsequent critical illness or death; however, only receiving glucocorticosteroids after sARI onset did not increase risk of severe illness.

An assessment for health education and health promotion in chronic disease demonstration districts: a comparative study from Hunan Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effective strategies of chronic disease control, integrated health education and health promotion play important roles in the programs of chronic disease demonstration districts in China. The performance of these districts can be directly assessed by their health education and promotion work. However, there have been only a few performance assessments done on these programs, most of which made without the inclusion of proper quality indicators. This study was designed to establish a framework of indicators for outcome evaluation of health education and promotion efforts in Chinese districts, and explore the factors involved in promoting these efforts. METHODS: A modified two-round Delphi survey was first used to construct quality indicators on a nine-point Likert scale. With those indicators, the rank sum ratio (RSR) method was then conducted through rank conversion and parametric statistics, to assess and classify the performance of ten districts or counties randomly chosen both from demonstration and non-demonstration districts in the Hunan province. RESULTS: The Delphi process produced seven themes and 25 sub-themes as quality indicators. The seven themes included organizational management, financial support, professional personnel, health education and promotion, residents' health awareness and behaviors, residents' satisfaction, and residents' health literacy. The districts were classified into four levels by RSR as follows: One demonstration district at the first-ranked level, five other demonstration districts at the second-ranked level, all non-demonstration districts at the third-ranked level. None were at the fourth-qualified level. DISCUSSION: Chronic disease demonstration districts performed better on the work of health education and health promotion than the non-demonstration districts. The work should be focused on the following measures of chronic diseases: organizational management, financial support, media-related broadcasting, technical support, community-based promotion and supportive environment, and people's enhanced awareness and health literacy.

Comprehensive assessment of health education and health promotion in five non-communicable disease demonstration districts in China: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop assessment indicators of health education and promotion for non-communicable disease (NCD) demonstration districts in China and to identify significant factors associated with NCD health education and promotion work. METHODS: Three complementary techniques were used to conduct this study in Hunan Province, China, between late 2013 and 2015. The Delphi technique was used to develop weighted assessment indicators, followed by the rank sum ratio (RSR) to normalise the weights through rank conversion. Lastly, the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution was conducted to assess five randomly selected NCD demonstration districts representing five different orientations in the province. RESULTS: A total of 24 assessment indicators were constructed covering the following sections: organisational management, fund support, personnel supplies, health education and promotion, people's awareness of NCDs, management and control of patients with NCD, satisfaction with health education and promotion and health literacy of residents. Five districts were selected as samples for evaluation (Furong District, Ziyang District, Shaodong County, Shuangfeng County and Luxi County). Performance varied among the sites, with Furong District greatly surpassing the other sites, especially in fund support, media promotion, technical support for publicity materials, community promotion and supportive environment supplies. The latter four factors were also much greater in the second-ranked Luxi County site than those in the other sites (except Furong District). CONCLUSIONS: There were gaps in health education and promotion work in NCD demonstration districts in Hunan Province. The districts that performed better had obvious advantages in fund support, media promotion, technical support, community promotion and supportive environment supplies. Our study provided both a methodological reference and an assessment indicator framework for similar future studies.

Correlation analysis of EV71 detection and case severity in hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Hunan Province of China.

An increase in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases has been observed in the Hunan province of mainland China since 2009 with a particularly higher level of severe cases in 2010-2012. Intestinal viruses of the picornaviridae family are responsible for the human syndrome associated with HFMD with enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16) being the most common causative strains. HFMD cases associated with EV71 are generally more severe with an increased association of morbidity and mortality. In this study, the etiology surveillance data of HFMD cases in Hunan province from March 2010 to October 2012 were analyzed to determine if there is a statistically relevant linear correlation exists between the detection rate of EV71 in mild cases and the proportion of severe cases among all HFMD patients. As the cases progressed from mild to severe to fatal, the likelihood of EV71 detection increased (25.78%, 52.20% and 84.18%, respectively). For all cases in the timeframe evaluated in this study, the presence of virus was detected in 63.21% of cases; among cases showing positivity for virus, EV71 infection accounted for 50.14%. These results provide evidence to support the observed higher morbidity and mortality associated with this outbreak and emphasizes the importance of early detection in order to implement necessary prevention measures to mitigate disease progression.

[The influence of familial factors on post rabies exposure vaccination in rural habitats].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the current situation of potential exposure to rabies among the rural habitats in Hunan province, and to study the impact related to familial factors on post rabies exposure vaccination. METHODS: In total, 40 villages from 20 townships of 4 counties were selected by multistage sampling method. Study samples were selected from these villagers and familial basic information and vaccination post rabies exposures were recorded through questionnaires. Data were statistically analyzed by SPSS 17.0. RESULTS: Among 3042 villagers from 864 households being surveyed, 124 person-time exposures were found from January, 2009 to October, 2010, with a total exposure rate as 4.08%, and the annual average exposure rate as 2.33%. Data from univariate analysis showed that the rates on post rabies exposure vaccination were statistically correlated with the following four factors:knowledge on the score of rabies prevention (χ(2) = 8.260, P = 0.042), whether being involved in the new type of rural cooperative medical care(P = 0.035), family disposable cash income in the year of 2009(χ(2) = 10.831, P = 0.031), distance between the households and the health facilities in towns and townships(χ(2) = 9.071, P = 0.033). Results from logistic regression analysis indicated that the score of knowledge on rabies prevention(O∧R = 1.420, 95% CI:1.055-1.905)and the annual disposable cash income of the family in 2009(O∧R = 1.480, 95% CI:1.044-2.098)were independent factors that influencing the rabies vaccination. CONCLUSION: Strengthening the education programs on rabies prevention in rural habitats and increasing family income were feasible way to increase the rate of rabies vaccination in rural areas of Hunan province.

[Analysis on the changing trend of mortality rate and spectrum regarding causes of death in the last recent 30 years in Hunan province].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the changing trend of mortality and the spectrum regarding causes of death in the population of Hunan, and to analyze the health-related major diseases. METHODS: With retrospective study method, a sample survey on causes of death and the related information was carried out from 2004 to 2005 among the residents in Hunan province. Results were compared with the data from a retrospective survey on causes of death in Hunan during 1973-1975 and 1990-1992, respectively. RESULTS: The crude mortality rates and the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) of the residents in Hunan were 901.59/100 000 and 865.14/100 000 during the period of 1973-1975 while 588.64/100 000 and 537.42/100 000 during the period of 1990-1992, and 608.27/100 000 and 413.67/100 000 during the period of 2004-2005, respectively. During the past 30 years, the SMR of the residents in Hunan decreased by 52.18% and the descending range from the rural areas was more than that of the urban areas, and higher in females than in males. The death proportion of infectious diseases, maternal and perinatal diseases, nutritional deficiencies decreased significantly (P<0.01), but the death proportion of chronic non-communicable diseases increased significantly (P<0.01). The changing ranges of the former two proportions were both larger in the rural areas than those in the urban areas. The highest proportions of deaths due to injury and poisoning during the past 30 years were both seen in the 5 year olds, followed by the age groups of 25 year olds (P<0.01). During the period of 2004-2005, the death proportion of all the infectious diseases, maternal/perinatal diseases and nutritional deficiencies was 8.01% altogether, and those of chronic non-communicable diseases, injury and poisoning were 80.66% and 11.33%, respectively. During the past 30 years, the SMR of the three kinds of diseases all significantly decreased, more significantly seen in infectious diseases, maternal and perinatal diseases, and nutritional deficiencies but less in chronic non-communicable diseases. Among the death cases of chronic non-communicable diseases, the SMR of cerebrovascular disease, malignant tumor, and heart disease showed an increasing tendency and the sequences of them had been advanced to the first, the second, and the fourth in the death ranking during the period of 2004-2005, respectively. CONCLUSION: The SMRs of the residents in the urban and rural areas from Hunan province showed a declining tendency. Cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases and malignant tumors had become the important diseases affecting the health of the people, while injury and poisoning had otherwise topped the causes of death among children and adolescents in Hunan province.

[Risk factors of death cases of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Hunan province].

OBJECTIVE: To study risk factors of death cases of hand foot and mouth diseases (HFMD) in Hunan province, so as to provide scientific evidence for further prevention and control. METHODS: The 105 death cases of HFMD between January and October, 2010 in Hunan Province were selected as case group; and the 210 survival cases of serious HFMD, which were matched by gender and resident places with a ratio at 2:1 in the same period in Hunan were selected as control group. The basic information, hospitalized experience and previous medical history had been surveyed and the relevant risk factors were analyzed by single factor and multi-factor logistic regression. RESULTS: In case group, 79.05% (83/105) of the cases lived in rural area and 9.52% (10/105) of the cases lived in urban-rural midst area. In control group, 87.62% (184/210) of the cases lived in rural area and 11.43% (24/210) of the cases lived in urban-rural midst area. In case group, 59.05% (62/105) of the patients first visited rural (private) clinics and 20.00% (21/105) first visited community hospitals in villages and towns; while in control group, 43.81% (92/210) and 13.33% (28/210) chose rural (private) clinics and community hospitals in villages and towns as the first choice respectively.22.86% (24/105) of the case group and 39.05% (82/210) of the control group were diagnosed as HFMD in their first visit to hospital.27.62% (29/105) of the case group and 7.14% (15/210) in control group were provided pyrazolone in the treatment. For glucocorticoid, 80.95% (85/105) and 5.71% (6/105) of the case group were given as treatment by rural (private) clinics and community hospitals in villages and towns separately; while the proportions in the control group were 41.43% (87/210) and 0.48% (1/210) respectively. For antibiotics, 35.24% (37/105) and 23.81% (25/105) of the case group were prescribed by rural (private) clinics and community hospitals in villages and towns separately; while the percentages in the control group were 15.71% (33/210) and 7.14% (15/210). 3.81% (4/105) of the case group and 11.90% (25/210) of the control group were vaccinated in one month before the onset. The results of single-factor logistic regression indicated that living in rural areas (OR = 0.075, 95%CI: 0.016 - 0.343) and in rural-urban midst areas (OR = 0.069, 95%CI: 0.013 - 0.368), diagnosis of HFMD in the first visit to hospital (OR = 0.463, 95%CI: 0.271 - 0.788) and vaccination one month before the onset (OR = 0.293, 95%CI: 0.099 - 0.866) were four protective factors; while rural (private) clinics as the first choice (OR = 4.717, 95%CI: 1.891 - 11.767), community hospital in villages and towns as the first choice (OR = 5.250, 95%CI: 1.883 - 14.641), medication of pyrazolone (OR = 4.961, 95%CI: 2.520 - 9.766), medication of glucocorticoid in rural (private) clinics (OR = 6.009, 95%CI: 3.435 - 10.510) and in community hospital in villages and towns (OR = 12.667, 95%CI: 1.505 - 106.638), medication of antibiotics in rural (private) clinics (OR = 2.918, 95%CI: 1.690 - 5.040) and in community hospital in villages and towns (OR = 4.062, 95%CI: 2.036 - 8.108) were seven risk factors. The results of multi-factors logistic regression showed that medication of pyrazolone (OR = 2.311, 95%CI: 1.062 - 5.030), medication of glucocorticoid in rural (private) clinics (OR = 5.480, 95%CI: 3.039 - 9.880), medication of antibiotics in rural (private) clinics (OR = 2.430, 95%CI: 1.301 - 4.538) and medication of antibiotics in community hospitals in villages and towns (OR = 3.344, 95%CI: 1.477 - 7.569) were the risk factors of death of HFMD. CONCLUSION: The risk factors of HFMD deaths include the medication of pyrazolone, glucocorticoid and antibiotics by rural (private) clinics and medical institutions in villages and towns. The department concerned should revise the technical manual to standardize the medication of the above drugs.

Development of real-time and nested RT-PCR to detect astrovirus and one-year survey of astrovirus in Jiangmen City, China.

Human astroviruses (HAstVs) are one of the major viral agents of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in all age groups, especially in young children. In this study, new one-step real-time RT-PCR and nested RT-PCR assays were developed to detect HAstVs. HAstVs were identified in 46 (8.75%) of 526 stool samples in Jiangmen City over 1 year, including 43 (9.15%) of 470 children and 3 (5.4%) of 56 adults, and HAstV-1 was the most predominant strain. This finding suggests that HAstVs infections are common in Jiangmen City, China. Further detailed molecular epidemiological studies are required for understanding the prevalence of HAstVs infection and gaining knowledge about the circulating genotypes.