Predicting the mortality of smoking attributable to cancer in Qingdao, China: A time-series analysis.

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death and disability from cancer in China. To provide a scientific basis for tobacco control strategies and measures, this study investigated cancer deaths attributed to smoking from 2005 to 2017 and predicted mortality trends from 2018 to 2020 in Qingdao. We used time series analysis to evaluate the number of deaths attributed to smoking among residents over 35 years old in Qingdao and predicted mortality trends. The number of cancer deaths attributed to smoking in Qingdao from 2005 to 2016 was between 170 and 407, showing an upward trend and a certain periodicity. The best model is the ARIMA (2,1,0)×(3,1,0)12, with the lowest BIC (6.640) and the highest stationary R2 (0.500). The predicted cancer deaths curve attributed to smoking in 2017 is consistent with the actual curve, with an average relative error of 5.74%. Applying this model to further predict the number of cancer deaths attributed to smoking in Qingdao from January 2018 to December 2020, the predicted results were 5,249, 5,423 and 6,048, respectively. The findings emphasized the need to further strengthen tobacco control measures to reduce the burden of disease caused by tobacco.

Cancer mortality attributable to cigarette smoking in 2005, 2010 and 2015 in Qingdao, China.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking is among the most important public health concerns worldwide and the leading preventable cause of illness and death associated with cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although Qingdao, China implemented smoking control measures in 2007 and smoke-free legislation in 2013, smoking-attributable cancer mortality remains at a high level. The present study aimed to facilitate changes in policy-making, intervention implementation, monitoring and evaluation by estimating and comparing the burden of smoking-attributable cancers in Qingdao during 2005, 2010 and 2015. METHODS: This study used the disease list from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to quantify the burden of smoking-related cancer. Sex and age-specific smoking-attributable mortality data were collected from the Qingdao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention using an online reporting system. The population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking and smoking-attributable cancer mortality in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were estimated using the smoking impact ratio (SIR) and relative risks (RRs) and by multiplying the smoking-attributable fraction by total cancer mortality, respectively. RESULTS: The numbers of smoking-attributable cancer deaths increased from 2484 in 2005 to 2999 in 2010 and 4148 in 2015, with corresponding PAFs of 26.41%, 25.76% and 29.13%, respectively. The PAFs were higher among men (vs. women) for all cancers except cervical cancer. In 2005, lung, liver, esophageal and stomach cancers were most frequently associated with smoking-associated cancer mortality, and lung cancer had the greatest PAF, followed by nasopharyngeal, oral and esophageal cancers. Similar patterns were observed in 2010 and 2015. In 2015, 1 in 3 and 1 in 5 cancer deaths in men and women, respectively, were attributable to smoking, and 95% of these deaths were associated with lung, liver, esophageal or stomach cancer. Over time, downward and upward trends in smoking-attributable cancer deaths were respectively observed among people younger than and older than 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: The smoking-attributable cancer burden in Qingdao remains considerable, despite the implementation of tobacco control and smoke-free measures. Tobacco control efforts should remain a major public health priority.