Development of a risk prediction model for surgical site infection after lower third molar surgery.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence regarding risk prediction for surgical site infection (SSI) after lower third molar (L3M) surgery. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study to develop a multivariable logistic model for predicting the risk of SSI after L3M surgery. Data were obtained from Hokkaido University Hospital from April 2013 to March 2020. Multiple imputation was applied for the missing values. We conducted decision tree (DT) analysis to evaluate the combinations of factors affecting SSI risk. RESULTS: We identified 648 patients. The final model retained the available distal space (Pell & Gregory II [p = 0.05], Pell & Gregory III [p < 0.01]), depth (Pell & Gregory B [p < 0.01], Pell & Gregory C [p < 0.01]), surgeon's experience (3-10 years [p = 0.25], <3 years [p < 0.01]), and simultaneous extraction of both L3M [p < 0.01]; the concordance-statistic was 0.72. The DT analysis demonstrated that patients with Pell and Gregory B or C and simultaneous extraction of both L3M had the highest risk of SSI. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a model for predicting SSI after L3M surgery with adequate predictive metrics in a single center. This model will make the SSI risk prediction more accessible.

Evaluation of the strategies to reduce third-generation oral cephalosporins in dentistry at a Japanese academic hospital: An interrupted time series analysis.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: Third-generation oral cephalosporins, especially cefcapene-pivoxil (CFPN-PI), have been used frequently in the Japanese dental field. In December 2014 and April 2016, the newly published clinical guidelines recommended the use of amoxicillin (AMPC). Thus, it is important to evaluate the impact of these guidelines on the prescription profiles of prophylactic antibiotics, clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of antibiotics. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study to analyse an interrupted time series analysis from April 2013 to March 2020 at the Department of Dentistry of Hokkaido University Hospital. A segmented regression model was used to estimate the changes in the incidence of infectious complications following tooth extraction. Prescribed antibiotic data were evaluated via days of therapy (DOT). Antibiotic costs were calculated in terms of the Japanese yen (JPY). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We identified 17,825 eligible patients. The incidence rates of infectious complications (SSI + dry socket) and SSI after tooth extraction were 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively, during the entire period. The extraction of impacted third molars corresponded to 5.0% and 3.4%, respectively. However, their incidence rates were not significantly different during this period. The use of prophylactic antibiotics and antibiotic cost showed consistent trends following the implementation of guidelines. The mean DOT of CFPN-PI decreased (ranging from 4893.6 DOTs/1000 patients [March 2013 to November 2014] to 3856.4 DOTs/1000 patients [December 2014 to March 2016]; p < 0.001, and from 3856.4 DOTs/1000 patients [December 2014 to March 2016] to 2293.9 DOTs/1000 patients [April 2016 to March 2020]; p < 0.001). In contrast, the mean DOT of AMPC was found to be increased (ranging from 1379.7 DOTs/1000 patients [March 2013 to November 2014] to 3236.3 DOTs/1000 patients [December 2014 to March 2016]; p < 0.001, and from 3236.3 DOTs/1000 patients [December 2014 to March 2016] to 4597.8 DOTs/1000 patients [April 2016 to March 2020]; p < 0.001). The mean monthly cost was decreased (ranging from 905.3 JPY [March 2013 to November 2014] to 788.7 JPY [December 2014 to March 2016]; p = 0.003, and from 788.7 JPY [December 2014 to March 2016] to 614.0 JPY [April 2016 to March 2020]; p < 0.001). WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: After December 2014, prophylactic antibiotics were switched from CFPN-PI to AMPC, and the incidence rate of infectious complications was not significantly different over time. However, changing antibiotics is useful from a cost-effectiveness perspective.

Necessity for a Significant Maintenance Dosage Reduction of Voriconazole in Patients with Severe Liver Cirrhosis (Child-Pugh Class C).

Therapeutic drug monitoring for voriconazole, an antifungal agent, is essential for maximizing efficacy and preventing toxicity. The aim of this study was to elucidate the optimal maintenance dose of voriconazole in patients with severe liver cirrhosis (Child-Pugh class C) by reviewing the plasma trough concentrations obtained by therapeutic drug monitoring and daily doses of voriconazole. We retrospectively evaluated 6 patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis who received oral voriconazole treatment and were liver transplant recipients or were awaiting liver transplantation. We compared their voriconazole trough concentrations and daily maintenance doses to those of patients who did not have liver cirrhosis (n=56). We found that plasma voriconazole trough concentrations in all patients with Child-Pugh class C were almost within therapeutic range, and the median plasma trough concentration at steady state was not significantly different from that of patients who did not have liver cirrhosis. In addition, the median daily maintenance dose of voriconazole was significantly lower (2.13 mg/kg/d) than that of the control patients (6.27 mg/kg/d), suggesting that trough voriconazole concentrations are elevated in Child-Pugh class C patients. Thus, we conclude that oral voriconazole maintenance doses in patients with Child-Pugh class C should be reduced to approximately one-third that of patients with normal liver function, with the follow-up dose adjusted by therapeutic drug monitoring.

Validating the Effectiveness of Switching the Vancomycin TDM Analysis Software Based on the Predictive Accuracy.

Based on the predictive performance in our previous study, we switched the therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) analysis software for dose setting of vancomycin (VCM) from "Vancomycin MEEK TDM analysis software Ver2.0" (MEEK) to "SHIONOGI-VCM-TDM ver.2009" (VCM-TDM) in January 2015. In the present study, our aim was to validate the effectiveness of the changing VCM TDM analysis software in initial dose setting of VCM. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups, each having 162 patients in total, who received VCM with the initial dose set using MEEK (MEEK group) or VCM-TDM (VCM-TDM group). We compared the rates of attaining the therapeutic range (trough value; 10-20 µg/mL) of serum VCM concentration between the groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to confirm that changing the VCM TDM analysis software was an independent factor related to attaining the therapeutic range. Switching the VCM TDM analysis software from MEEK to VCM-TDM improved the rate of attaining the therapeutic range by 21.6% (MEEK group: 42.6% vs. VCM-TDM group: 64.2%, p<0.01). Patient age ≥65 years, concomitant medication (furosemide) and the TDM analysis software used VCM-TDM were considered to be independent factors for attaining the therapeutic range. These results demonstrated the effectiveness of switching the VCM TDM analysis software from MEEK to VCM-TDM for initial dose setting of VCM.

Violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders in Japan.

BACKGROUND: A new forensic mental health law was enacted in Japan in 2003, enabling development of specialist services. Before their establishment, it is important to determine the nature, frequency and correlates of the problems they are designed to ameliorate. AIMS: To establish rates of violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders before the new legislation, and examine associated risk factors. METHOD: Data were extracted from one complete annual (1980) national cohort of people judged by the Court or prosecutor to be without responsibility for a criminal offence, or of sufficiently diminished responsibility for it to be diverted for psychiatric treatment. The outcome measure was violent recidivism after community discharge and before 1991. RESULTS: Fifty-two (10%) of 489 in the cohort were arrested or convicted of further violent offences. Violent recidivism was most strongly associated with a substance-related disorder, but histories of violence, homelessness and short index admissions were independently related. CONCLUSIONS: Violent recidivism was so unusual that, on this outcome, it could take many years to show any effect of the new service. Desistance from substance use, compliance with treatment and maintenance of stable housing may be better indicators of success, and their achievement a good preventive strategy.

Exploring the possibility of risk assessment of Japanese sexual offenders using Static-99.

BACKGROUND: The number of sexual offences reported in Japan doubled between 1992 and 2002. This has prompted attention to assessment of risk of recidivism. AIMS: To explore whether an actuarial assessment of risk widely used in the West can be meaningfully applied to Japanese men serving a prison sentence for sexual offences. METHOD: All sex offenders incarcerated in Kitakyushu Medical Prison in Fukuoka at any time in a period of one year (1 July 2002-30 June 2003) were identified. Demographic data, characteristics of offences and the Static-99 were rated from records. RESULTS: Following a slightly modified application of coding rules, all items of the Static-99 were rateable. Nine offenders of 45 whose Static-99 score was over 6 were thus identified as high-risk offenders. The items distinguishing apparently high-risk men were history of institutionalization as a delinquent and mental retardation. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The Static-99 may be a useful tool in assessing sex offenders in Japan. With apparently increasing recognition of sex crimes here, it seems timely to be developing a systematic approach to assessment. Further work is required to test its value in practice as a predictor of recidivism.