Reliability of COVID-19 data: An evaluation and reflection.

IMPORTANCE: The rapid proliferation of COVID-19 has left governments scrambling, and several data aggregators are now assisting in the reporting of county cases and deaths. The different variables affecting reporting (e.g., time delays in reporting) necessitates a well-documented reliability study examining the data methods and discussion of possible causes of differences between aggregators. OBJECTIVE: To statistically evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 data across aggregators using case fatality rate (CFR) estimates and reliability statistics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cases and deaths were collected daily by volunteers via state and local health departments, as primary sources and newspaper reports, as secondary sources. In an effort to begin comparison for reliability statistical analysis, BroadStreet collected data from other COVID-19 aggregator sources, including USAFacts, Johns Hopkins University, New York Times, The COVID Tracking Project. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and death counts at the county and state levels. RESULTS: Lower levels of inter-rater agreement were observed across aggregators associated with the number of deaths, which manifested itself in state level Bayesian estimates of COVID-19 fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: A national, publicly available data set is needed for current and future disease outbreaks and improved reliability in reporting.

The associations of nitrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposures with plasma glucose and amino acids.

Nitrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (nitro-PAHs) have been widely studied for their mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. This study aims to investigate whether exposure to nitro-PAHs is associated with biomarkers of carbohydrate metabolism, an underlying risk factor for metabolic disorder. Early morning urine and blood samples were longitudinally collected two times with a four-week interval from 43 healthy adults. Five urinary amino-PAHs (1-aminonaphthalene, 2-aminonaphthalene, 9-aminophenanthrene, 2-aminofluorene, and 1-aminopyrene) were measured as biomarkers of nitro-PAH exposures. We measured plasma concentrations of glucose and six amino acids that can regulate insulin secretion, including aspartate (Asp), glutamate (Glu), glutamine (Gln), alanine (Ala), Arginine (Arg), and ornithine (Orn). We found that increasing concentrations of 9-aminophenanthrene were significantly associated with increasing glucose levels and with decreasing Asp, Glu, Ala, and Orn levels. We estimated that 26.4 %-43.8 % of the 9-aminophenanthrene-associated increase in glucose level was mediated by Asp, Glu, and Orn. These results suggest that exposure to certain nitro-PAHs affects glucose homeostasis, partly resulting from the depletion of insulin-stimulating amino acids (Asp, Glu, and Orn).

Nitrated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Arachidonic Acid Metabolisms Relevant to Cardiovascular Pathophysiology: Findings from a Panel Study in Healthy Adults.

Concerns on nitrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (nitro-PAHs) in the environment have mainly arisen from their mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. The objective of this study is to investigate whether nitro-PAH exposures are associated with biomarkers of cardiovascular pathophysiology. In a panel study design, urines and blood samples were collected up to four times with a 2-week interval from 89 healthy adults. We measured 1-naphthylamine, 2-naphthylamine, 9-aminophenanthrene, 2-aminofluorene, and 1-aminopyrene as biomarkers of nitro-PAH exposures. We measured three urinary metabolites of arachidonic acid (AA) including 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (20-HETE) from the cytochrome P450 (CYP) pathway, 8-isoprostane from the nonenzymatic pathway, and 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 (11-dhTXB2) from the cyclooxygenase (COX) pathway. Urinary malondialdehyde, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s) were measured to reflect systemic oxidative stress. Plasma concentrations of the soluble P-selectin and von Willebrand factor (vWF) were measured as biomarkers of platelet activation and endothelial dysfunction. We found that increased urinary concentrations of amino-PAHs were significantly associated with increased 20-HETE, 11-dhTXB2, and 8-OHdG and with decreased 8-isoprostane and aMT6s. Increased amino-PAHs were positively associated with P-selectin and vWF, respectively. These results suggest that exposure to nitro-PAHs increases systemic oxidative stress and alters AA metabolism toward CYP and COX pathways, leading to an increased cardiovascular disease risk.