Cohort study of THRIVE predicting adverse outcomes in acute ischemic stroke of the anterior circulation and posterior circulation after 3 months and 1 year of follow-up.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the difference of Totaled Health Risks In Vascular Events (THRIVE) in predicting adverse outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) of the anterior circulation and posterior circulation at 3-month and 1-year follow-up. METHODS: A total of 858 patients with AIS were followed up for 3 months and 1 year, and their data prospectively collected. The occurrence of death or moderate to severe disability (modified Rankin Scale ≥ 3 points) was regarded as the endpoint. MedCalc software was used to create the THRIVE receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to compare the THRIVE scale in predicting adverse outcomes in AIS of the anterior and posterior circulation and compare the differences. RESULTS: At 3-month follow-up, the AUC of THRIVE was 0.685 (95% CI 0.644-0.724) for AIS of the anterior circulation and 0.709 (95% CI 0.647-0.765) for AIS of the posterior circulation. The area difference between them was 0.0235 (95% CI -0.0728-0.120, P = 0.6330[>0.05]). The AUC of THRIVE for AIS in the anterior circulation at 1 year was 0.701 (95% CI 0.660-0.740), and that for AIS in the posterior circulation at 1 year was 0.747 (95% CI 0.687-0.800). The area difference between them was 0.0458 (95% CI -0.0489-0.140, P = 0.3436 [>0.05]). The difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: THRIVE can well predict the short-term and long-term adverse prognosis of AIS in the anterior and posterior circulation and has the same predictive effect.

A modified Essen Stroke Risk Score for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke at one year.

Objective The Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) is widely used to predict the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke but may not have sufficient discriminatory ability for predicting early recurrence. In this study, we developed a modified ESRS for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke at one year based on Chinese population. Methods Eight hundred and three consecutive patients were included in the study. We performed a univariate analysis to investigate the effect of previously identified risk factors on recurrent stroke at one year. The candidate predictors were included in a forward stepwise logistic regression model. Prediction scores were assigned based on ß coefficient and a modified ESRS system was constructed. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to compare the predictive ability of the modified and original ESRS. Results Recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 85 (11.00%) patients and death occurred in 68 (8.80%) patients within one year. Hypertension over 15 years, diabetes over 10 years, large artery atherosclerosis cerebral infarction by TOAST criteria and a history of transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) were identified as independent risk factors for recurrent stroke (all P < 0.05). The areas under the ROC curves of ESRS and modified ESRS were 0.58 (P < 0.05, 95%CI: 0.51-0.64) and 0.70 (P < 0.05, 95% CI: 0.63-0.76), respectively. The modified ESRS appears to be superior to the original ESRS for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke at one year (P < 0.05). Conclusions The modified ESRS increased the ability of the original ESRS to predict recurrent stroke at one year among the Chinese population.

The Prognostic Value of the iScore, the PLAN Score, and the ASTRAL Score in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Disability and mortality represent the most relevant clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Recently, a number of prognostic models of acute ischemic stroke have been developed, but they have not been extensively validated. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 3 prognostic models including the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score in predicting clinical poor outcomes or mortality at 6 months in patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: A total of 323 patients were divided into a good-prognosis group and a poor-prognosis group based on the modified Rankin Scale. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: We identified 96 (29.7%) patients with poor prognosis, including 21 who were dead. All 3 models showed good ability in predicting poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (all ROC > .70). There was no difference between these 3 models in terms of sensitivity and accuracy (all P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score were equal in predicting 6-month poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Overall, there was a very high correlation between observed and expected outcomes at the risk score level.