Predicting healthcare outcomes in prematurely born infants using cluster analysis.

AIMS: Prematurely born infants are at high risk of respiratory morbidity following neonatal unit discharge, though prediction of outcomes is challenging. We have tested the hypothesis that cluster analysis would identify discrete groups of prematurely born infants with differing respiratory outcomes during infancy. METHODS: A total of 168 infants (median (IQR) gestational age 33 (31-34) weeks) were recruited in the neonatal period from consecutive births in a tertiary neonatal unit. The baseline characteristics of the infants were used to classify them into hierarchical agglomerative clusters. Rates of viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) were recorded for 151 infants in the first year after birth. RESULTS: Infants could be classified according to birth weight and duration of neonatal invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) into three clusters. Cluster one (MV ≤5 days) had few LRTIs. Clusters two and three (both MV ≥6 days, but BW ≥or <882 g respectively), had significantly higher LRTI rates. Cluster two had a higher proportion of infants experiencing respiratory syncytial virus LRTIs (P = 0.01) and cluster three a higher proportion of rhinovirus LRTIs (P < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Readily available clinical data allowed classification of prematurely born infants into one of three distinct groups with differing subsequent respiratory morbidity in infancy.

Respiratory viral infections in infancy and school age respiratory outcomes and healthcare costs.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in infancy including rhinovirus (RV) and infancy respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), on school age pulmonary function and healthcare utilization in prematurely born children. WORKING HYPOTHESIS: School age respiratory outcomes would be worse and healthcare utilization greater in children who had viral LRTIs in infancy. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study. SUBJECT SELECTION: A cohort of prematurely born children who had symptomatic LRTIs during infancy documented, was recalled. METHODS: Pulmonary function was assessed at 5 to 7 years of age and health related costs of care from aged one to follow-up determined. RESULTS: Fifty-one children, median gestational age 33+6 weeks, were assessed at a median (IQR) age 7.03 (6.37-7.26) years. Twenty-one children had no LRTI, 14 RV LRTI, 10 RSV LRTI, and 6 another viral LRTI (other LRTI). Compared to the no LRTI group, the RV group had a lower FEV1 (P = 0.033) and the other LRTI group a lower FVC (P = 0.006). Non-respiratory medication costs were higher in the RV (P = 0.018) and RSV (P = 0.013) groups. Overall respiratory healthcare costs in the RV (£153/year) and RSV (£27/year) groups did not differ significantly from the no LRTI group (£56/year); the other LRTI group (£431/year) had higher respiratory healthcare costs (P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: In moderately prematurely born children, RV and RSV LRTIs in infancy were not associated with higher respiratory healthcare costs after infancy. Children who experienced LRTIs caused by other respiratory viruses (including RV) had higher respiratory healthcare costs and greater pulmonary function impairment.