Lay epistemology and the Populist's playbook: The roles of epistemological identity and expressive epistemology.

Salient social identities have long appeared to shape what we believe and know. But do social identities also shape how we know? This essay argues that performances of "lay epistemology" by populist leaders may shape group norms in ways that encourage supporters to orient to their worlds more through intuition and emotion and less through evidence and data (or at least to report that they do, thus constituting a form of "expressive epistemology"). We summarize research on the positive link between populist attitudes, valuing intuition and emotion over evidence and data, and belief in misinformation and conspiracy theories, and then explore how these relationships may be mutually reinforcing - and strategically beneficial to populist leaders.

Television News Media Consumption and Misperceptions about COVID-19 among US Populations at High Risk for Severe Health Outcomes Early in the Pandemic.

Research indicates that misperceptions that become part of people's initial mental models about an issue tend to persist and influence their attitudes even after the misperception has been corrected. Recent work on evolving mental models suggests that communication efforts about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath may be improved by crafting messages that acknowledge biases and misunderstandings about the virus and other infectious diseases that may remain among members of the target audience. This study was designed to provide insight into such biases by: (1) establishing salient categories of COVID-related misperceptions in the earliest months of the pandemic in the United States among (a) the general population, and (b) demographic sub-populations at high risk of severe health outcomes; (2) identifying demographic predictors of misperceptions; and (3) examining the relationship between consumption of different television news outlets and agreement with misperceptions about COVID-19. A national sample of 1,000 adults in the United States (48.1% male; M age = 47.32, SD = 18.01; 72.9% White/Caucasian, 14.3% Black/African American, 15.9% Hispanic/Latinx) completed a survey between March 19 and March 25, 2020. Results identify prevalent classes of salient early COVID-19 misperceptions. Adjusting for numerous covariates, data indicated individuals over the age of 60 held the fewest COVID-related misperceptions among various demographic sub-populations, misperceptions were most prevalent among Black respondents, and increased consumption of television network news was associated with lower levels of misperception. Consumption of some 24-hour news networks (FOX and MSNBC) were significant positive correlates of misperceptions.

How Stay-at-Home Orders Interact with COVID-19 Misperceptions and Individuals' Social Distancing Intentions.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a health emergency in which public health policy, such as state-mandated stay-at-home orders, has the potential to reduce the speed of disease transmission and prevent the overwhelming of hospital infrastructure and unnecessary deaths. Using the Ideological Health Spirals Model (IHSM), this analysis examines how state-mandated stay-at-home orders affect the relationships among individuals' overall COVID-19 knowledge and beliefs in misinformation, as well as their attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy regarding social distancing and stay-at-home behaviors. Data were collected from a sample of 1000 adults living in the U.S. in Spring 2020. Path analyses showed that the stay-at-home orders moderated the relationship between knowledge and self-efficacy in the context of performing social distancing behaviors. Results also indicate that intention to socially distance was associated with attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy. These results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders have the capacity to bolster the effect of knowledge and beliefs on key determinants of intention.

The politics of mask-wearing: Political preferences, reactance, and conflict aversion during COVID.

The current project examines how psychological reactance and conflict orientation relate to the highly politicized debate over mask-wearing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore how psychological reactance and conflict orientation are related to self-reported mask-wearing, and how these same predispositions are correlated with political beliefs. We then assess how favorability towards President Trump in the context of the 2020 Election was uniquely correlated with these traits and how Trump favorability both mediated and moderated the effects of conflict orientation and psychological reactance on individuals' likelihood of wearing masks. Results from a national survey of U.S. adults from Nov-Dec 2020 suggest that Trump favorability was positively associated with trait reactance, negatively associated with conflict aversion, and negatively associated with self-reported mask-wearing. The opposite was true of favorability towards Joe Biden. Moderation analyses indicate that conflict-approaching Biden detractors were especially unlikely to report wearing masks, while mediation analyses show that political preferences significantly mediated the relationships between both psychological traits and self-reported mask-wearing. Implications for the politicization of health messaging and health behavior are discussed.

"I feel it in my gut:" Epistemic Motivations, Political Beliefs, and Misperceptions of COVID-19 and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

This project examines the intersection of political constructs and epistemic motivations as they relate to belief in misinformation. How we value the origins of knowledge - through feelings and intuition or evidence and data - has important implications for our susceptibility to misinformation. This project explores how these epistemic motivations correlate with political ideology, party identification, and favorability towards President Trump, and how epistemic and political constructs predict belief in misinformation about COVID and the 2020 election. Results from a US national survey from Nov-Dec 2020 illustrate that Republicans, conservatives, and those favorable towards President Trump held greater misperceptions about COVID and the 2020 election. Additionally, epistemic motivations were associated with political preferences; Republicans and conservatives were more likely to reject evidence, and Trump supporters more likely to value feelings and intuition. Mediation analyses support the proposition that Trump favorability, Republicanism, and conservatism may help account for the relationships between epistemic motivations and misperceptions. Results are discussed in terms of the messaging strategies of right-wing populist movements, and the implications for democracy and public health.

Psychosocial Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccination Intention Among White, Black, and Hispanic Adults in the US.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine uptake is an urgent public health priority. PURPOSE: To identify psychosocial determinants (attitudes, normative pressure, and perceived behavioral control) of COVID-19 vaccination intentions for U.S. White, Black, and Hispanic adults, and how COVID-19 misperceptions, beliefs about the value of science, and perceived media bias relate to these determinants. METHODS: Longitudinal online survey using two national samples (18-49 years old/50 years and older), each stratified by racial/ethnic group (n = 3,190). Data were collected in October/November 2020 and were weighted by race group to be representative. RESULTS: Path analyses showed that more positive attitudes about getting vaccinated predict intention across age and racial/ethnic groups, but normative pressure is relevant among older adults only. Belief in the value of science was positively associated with most determinants across all groups, however the association of COVID-19 misperceptions and perceived media bias with the determinants varied by age group. CONCLUSIONS: Messages that emphasize attitudes toward vaccination can be targeted to all age and racial/ethnic groups, and positive attitudes are universally related to a belief in the value of science. The varying role of normative pressure poses messages design challenges to increase vaccination acceptance.

Uncertainty Management and Curve Flattening Behaviors in the Wake of COVID-19's First Wave.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak poses a substantial threat to public health. Individual efforts to engage in COVID-19 precautionary behaviors are necessary to flatten the pandemic's curve in the waiting period before a vaccine is developed. This study sought to apply the Theory of Motivated Information Management to investigate the relationships among COVID-19 illness uncertainty, information management, and actual precautionary behaviors, both preparatory and preventative. The results of a national opt-in online panel demonstrate that uncertainty discrepancy, anxiety, and information management strategies are key predictors of the adoption of COVID-19 preparation and prevention behaviors. The results further identify diverging associations across age groups with respect to associations between information management and precautionary behaviors. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

The Lincoln Project and the Conservative Aesthetic.

This election season, a rogue band of Republican Party operatives has attracted considerable media attention, and the Twitter wrath of President Trump, with a series of negative advertisements attacking the incumbent. The Lincoln Project strategy demonstrates how social and cultural conservatives are attracted to a particular aesthetic, prompted by their psychological attraction to rhetorical forms that are threat-oriented, clear, efficient, hyperbolic, emotional, and authoritative.