Consequences for Norway from a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield reprocessing plant: Atmospheric transport of radionuclides.

The potential consequences for Norway should a nuclear accident at the Sellafield nuclear site occur, have been of concern for Norwegian authorities for several decades. Meteorological data from a 33-year period and the dispersion model 'SNAP' were used to evaluate meteorological conditions for which atmospheric transport of radionuclides from Sellafield to Norway would lead to the most severe impacts. The worst-case meteorological scenario for Norway, was found on 25th June 1989 for a low elevation (0-800 m) release and on 29th June 2001 for a higher elevation (800-1600 m) release. In both cases the western part of Norway was most affected. In general, the probability for depositions (>10 Bq/m2 of 137Cs) increased about 40% during the autumn and winter compared to the spring and summer months. An influence of climate change on the depositions was analysed, but not verified. Results from a number of simulations were also compared to identify how factors such as radioactive particle characteristics and initial release conditions could affect the predicted radionuclide deposition. The impact on predicted total depositions as well as hot-spot depositions by varying particle density and size as well as release elevation in worst-case scenario simulations amounted to about 40%-50%.

Using a chain of models to predict health and environmental impacts in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Sellafield site.

When a nuclear accident occurs, decision makers in the affected country/countries would need to act promptly to protect people, the environment and societal interests from harmful impacts of radioactive fallout. The decisions are usually based on a combination of model prognoses, measurements, and expert judgements within in an emergency decision support system (DSS). Large scale nuclear accidents would need predictive models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, for the connections between these in terms of radionuclide fluxes, and for the various exposure pathways to both humans and biota. Our study showed that eight different models and DSS modules could be linked to assess the total human and environmental consequences in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident, here chosen to be the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Activity concentrations and dose rates from 137Cs for both humans and the environment via various exposure routes were successfully modelled. The study showed that a release of 1% of the total inventory of 137Cs in the Highly Active Liquor Tanks at Sellafield Ltd is predicted to severely impact humans and the environment in Norway if strong winds are blowing towards the country at the time of an accidental atmospheric release. Furthermore, since the models did not have built-in uncertainty ranges when this Sellafield study was performed, investigations were conducted to identify the key factors contributing to uncertainty in various models and prioritise the ones to focus on in future research.