Association of healthy diet score and adiposity with risk of colorectal cancer: findings from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To explore the joint association of dietary patterns and adiposity with colorectal cancer (CRC), and whether adiposity mediates the relationship between dietary patterns and CRC risk, which could provide deeper insights into the underlying pathogenesis of CRC. METHODS: The data of 307,023 participants recruited between 2006 and 2010 were extracted from the UK Biobank study. Healthy diet scores were calculated based on self-reported dietary data at baseline, and participants were categorized into three groups, namely, low, intermediate, and high diet score groups. Cox regression models with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate the effects of the healthy diet score on CRC incidence, adjusting for various covariates. Furthermore, the mediation roles of obesity and central obesity between the healthy diet score and CRC risk were assessed using a counterfactual causal analysis based on Cox regression model. Additionally, joint association between dietary patterns and adiposity on CRC risks was assessed on the additive and multiplicative scales. RESULTS: Over a median 6.2-year follow-up, 3,276 participants developed CRC. After adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, a lower risk of CRC incidence was found for participants with intermediate (HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.95) and high diet scores (HR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.87) compared to those with low diet scores. When compared with the low diet score group, obesity accounted for 4.13% and 7.93% of the total CRC effect in the intermediate and high diet score groups, respectively, while central obesity contributed to 3.68% and 10.02% of the total CRC risk in the intermediate and high diet score groups, respectively. The mediating effect of adiposity on CRC risk was significant in men but not in women. Concurrent unhealthy diet and adiposity multiplied CRC risk. CONCLUSION: Adiposity-mediated effects were limited in the link between dietary patterns and CRC incidence, implying that solely addressing adiposity may not sufficiently reduce CRC risk. Interventions, such as improving dietary quality in people with adiposity or promoting weight control in those with unhealthy eating habits, may provide an effective strategy to reduce CRC risk.

Effects of 24-hour urine-output trajectories on the risk of acute kidney injury in critically ill patients with cirrhosis: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most common complications for critically ill patients with cirrhosis, but it has remained unclear whether urine output fluctuations are associated with the risk of AKI in such patients. Thus, we explored the influence of 24-h urine-output trajectory on AKI in patients with cirrhosis through latent category trajectory modeling. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study examined patients with cirrhosis using the MIMIC-IV database. Changes in the trajectories of urine output within 24 h after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) were categorized using latent category trajectory modeling. The outcome examined was the occurrence of AKI during ICU hospitalization. The risk of AKI in patients with different trajectory classes was explored using the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and the Fine-Gray model with the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI) as size effects. RESULTS: The study included 3,562 critically ill patients with cirrhosis, of which 2,467 (69.26%) developed AKI during ICU hospitalization. The 24-h urine-output trajectories were split into five classes (Classes 1-5). The CIF curves demonstrated that patients with continuously low urine output (Class 2), a rapid decline in urine output after initially high levels (Class 3), and urine output that decreased slowly and then stabilized at a lower level (Class 4) were at higher risk for AKI than those with consistently moderate urine output (Class 1). After fully adjusting for various confounders, Classes 2, 3, and 4 were associated with a higher risk of AKI compared with Class 1, and the respective SHRs (95% CIs) were 2.56 (1.87-3.51), 1.86 (1.34-2.59), and 1.83 1.29-2.59). CONCLUSIONS: The 24-h urine-output trajectory is significantly associated with the risk of AKI in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. More attention should be paid to the dynamic nature of urine-output changes over time, which may help guide early intervention and improve patients' prognoses.

Mortality patterns of patients with tonsillar squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study.

Objective: Tonsillar squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) and second primary malignancies (SPMs) are the most common causes of mortality in patients with primary TSCC. However, the competing data on TSCC-specific death (TSD) or SPM-related death in patients with TSCC have not been evaluated. This study aimed to analyze the mortality patterns and formulate prediction models of mortality risk caused by TSCC and SPMs. Methods: Data on patients with a first diagnosis of TSCC were extracted as the training cohort from the 18 registries comprising the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A competing risk approach of cumulation incidence function was used to estimate cumulative incidence curves. Fine and gray proportional sub-distributed hazard model analyses were performed to investigate the risk factors of TSD and SPMs. A nomogram was developed to predict the 5- and 10-year risk probabilities of death caused by TSCC and SPMs. Moreover, data from the 22 registries of the SEER database were also extracted to validate the nomograms. Results: In the training cohort, we identified 14,530 patients with primary TSCC, with TSCC (46.84%) as the leading cause of death, followed by SPMs (26.86%) among all causes of death. In the proportion of SPMs, the lungs and bronchus (22.64%) were the most common sites for SPM-related deaths, followed by the larynx (9.99%), esophagus (8.46%), and Non-Melanoma skin (6.82%). Multivariate competing risk model showed that age, ethnicity, marital status, primary site, summary stage, radiotherapy, and surgery were independently associated with mortality caused by TSCC and SPMs. Such risk factors were selected to formulate prognostic nomograms. The nomograms showed preferable discrimination and calibration in both the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion: Patients with primary TSCC have a high mortality risk of SPMs, and the competing risk nomogram has an ideal performance for predicting TSD and SPMs-related mortality. Routine follow-up care for TSCC survivors should be expanded to monitor SPMs.

Thiamine administration may increase survival benefit in critically ill patients with myocardial infarction.

Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) is a common cardiovascular disease (CVD) in critically ill patients, leading to 17% mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting. Patients with CVD frequently suffer from thiamine insufficiency, thereby thiamine supplements may be helpful. Unfortunately, the relationship between thiamine treatment and survival outcomes in ICU patients with MI is still unknown. The purpose of the research is to demonstrate the survival advantage of thiamine application in these patients. Methods: The Medical Information Mart of Intensive Care-IV database served as the foundation for this retrospective cohort analysis. Depending on whether patients were given thiamine therapy during the hospital stay, critically ill MI patients were split into the thiamine and non-thiamine groups. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the relationship between thiamine use and the risk of in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality. To validate the results, a 1:2 closest propensity-score matching (PSM) was also carried out. Results: This study included 1782 patients for analysis with 170 and 1,612 individuals in the thiamine and non-thiamine groups, respectively. The KM survival analyses revealed that the risk of in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality was significantly lower in the thiamine group than the none-thiamine group. After modifying for a variety of confounding factors, the Cox regression models demonstrated substantial positive impacts of thiamine use on in-hospital, 30-d, and 90-d mortality risk among critically ill patients with MI with hazard ratio being 0.605 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.397-0.921, p = 0.019], 0.618 (95% CI: 0.398-0.960, p = 0.032), and 0.626 (95% CI: 0.411-0.953, p = 0.028), respectively, in the completely modified model. PSM analyses also obtained consistent results. Conclusion: Thiamine supplementation is related to a decreased risk of mortality risk in critically ill patients with MI who are admitted to the ICU. More multicenter, large-sample, and well-designed randomized controlled trials are needed to validate this finding.

Secular trend in disease burden of leukemia and its subtypes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projection in 25 years.

Leukemia and its subtypes impose a major public health challenge in China. Identifying the secular trend of leukemia burden is critical to facilitate optimal healthcare planning and improve the management of leukemia. The incidence rates of leukemia from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following: subtype (acute lymphocytic leukemia [ALL], acute myeloid leukemia [AML], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], chronic myelogenous leukemia [CML], and other leukemia subtypes), sex, and age group. The average annual percentage changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also applied to predict the future trend of the incidence of leukemia and its subtypes in the next 25 years. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of leukemia slightly declined in males and females, which is similar to the trend of other leukemia subtypes. However, the four major leukemia subtypes, namely, ALL, AML, CLL, and CML, have been on the rise over the past three decades. The incidence rates of leukemia in children and the elderly were considerably higher than those in other age groups in males and females. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for leukemia incidence. Period effects showed that the risks of leukemia and its subtypes incidence increased with time. For cohort effects, the risks of leukemia and its subtypes were higher among the early-born cohorts compared with the late-born cohorts. The ASIRs of leukemia and its subtypes will continue to increase in the next 25 years. The burden of leukemia and its subtypes is expected to continue to increase in the next 25 years in males and females. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of leukemia and its subtypes is needed to formulate timely and effective intervention measures to reduce the leukemia burden in China.

Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear. METHODS: The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females. CONCLUSION: The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.

Association of thiamine administration and prognosis in critically ill patients with heart failure.

Background: Thiamine deficiency is common in patients with heart failure, and thiamine supplement can benefit these patients. However, the association between thiamine administration and prognosis among critically ill patients with heart failure remains unclear. Thus, this study aims to prove the survival benefit of thiamine use in critically ill patients with heart failure. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was performed on the basis of the Medical Information Mart of Intensive Care-Ⅳ database. Critically ill patients with heart failure were divided into the thiamine and non-thiamine groups depending on whether they had received thiamine therapy or not during hospitalization. The association between thiamine supplement and in-hospital mortality was assessed by using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and Cox proportional hazard models. A 1:1 nearest propensity-score matching (PSM) and propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPW) were also performed to ensure the robustness of the findings. Results: A total of 7,021 patients were included in this study, with 685 and 6,336 in the thiamine and non-thiamine groups, respectively. The kaplan-meier survival curves indicated that the thiamine group had a lower in-hospital mortality than the none-thiamine group. After adjusting for various confounders, the Cox regression models showed significant beneficial effects of thiamine administration on in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with heart failure with a hazard ratio of 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.67-0.89) in the fully adjusted model. propensity-score matching and probability of treatment weighting analyses also achieved consistent results. Conclusion: Thiamine supplement is associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with heart failure who are admitted to the ICU. Further multicenter and well-designed randomized controlled trials with large sample sizes are necessary to validate this finding.

Associations of systolic blood pressure and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury.

PURPOSE: Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) is associated with acute renal injury (AKI), the relationship between baseline SBP and prognosis in critically ill patients with AKI is unclear. We aimed to assess the linearity and profile of the relationship between SBP at intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital mortality in these patients. METHODS: Data of AKI patients in the ICU settings were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. The association between seven SBP categories (< 100, 100-109, 110-119, 120-129, 130-139, 140-149, and ≥ 150 mmHg) and all-cause in-hospital mortality was assessed by Cox proportional hazard models. Restricted cubic spline analysis for the multivariate Cox model was performed to explore the shape of the relationship between SBP and mortality. RESULTS: A total of 24,202 patients with AKI were included in this study. A typically U-shaped relationship was found between SBP at admission and in-hospital mortality. Among all SBP categories, the lowest risk of death was observed in patients with SBP around 110-119 mmHg, whereas the highest was noted in patients with extremely low SBP (< 100 mmHg), followed by those with extremely high SBP (≥ 150 mmHg). SBP showed a significant interaction with vasopressor use and AKI stage in relation to the risk of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: SBP upon admission showed a non-linear association with all-cause in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with AKI. Patients with low or high SBP show an increased risk of mortality compared to patients with normal SBP.

Global, regional, and national years lived with disability due to blindness and vision loss from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Purpose: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of burden estimates and the secular trend of blindness and vision loss, as measured by years lived with disability (YLDs), at the global, regional, and national levels. Methods: The age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) due to blindness and vision loss and its subtypes, including moderate vision loss, severe vision loss, blindness, and presbyopia, from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in the ASYRs due to blindness and vision loss. Results: In 2019, the global ASYRs per 100,000 population was 327.98 for blindness and vision loss, specifically, 85.81 for moderate vision loss, 74.86 for severe vision loss, 95.03 for blindness, and 62.27 for presbyopia. From 1990 to 2019, the ASYRs due to blindness and vision loss slightly decreased. Females showed higher ASYRs than males in 2019. The global highest ASYRs were observed in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Negative associations were found between the burden estimates of blindness and vision loss and the sociodemographic index levels. The EAPCs of ASYRs in blindness and vision loss were significantly negatively correlated with the ASYRs in 1990 and positively correlated with human development indices in 2019. Conclusions: Globally, blindness and vision loss continue to cause great losses of healthy life. Reasonable resource allocation and health-service planning are needed for the prevention and early intervention of disabilities caused by vision loss.

Trends in the prevalence of conduct disorder from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Conduct disorder is one of the least widely recognized and studied psychiatric disorders. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the burden of conduct disorder at the global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 estimates. Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of conduct disorder slightly increased from 1990 to 2019 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) at 0.147. Males had a higher burden than females, but females had a greater increment in ASPRs than males over time. In 2019, the highest ASPR of conduct disorder was observed in Western Europe, followed by Eastern Europe, with the lowest one found in East Asia, then South Asia. However, the most significant increment in ASPRs was observed in high-income North America, followed by East Asia, and South Asia. The EAPCs at the national level were negatively associated with the ASPRs in 1990. The burden of conduct disorder continues to increase globally, especially in high-income North America, East Asia, and South Asia, and should have more attention focused on it.

Association of Red Cell Distribution Width-to-Platelet Ratio and Mortality in Patients with Sepsis.

Background: As a novel inflammatory index, the ratio of red cell distribution width (RDW) to platelet count (RPR) may have prognostic value in some critical illnesses. However, studies on the prognostic influence of RPR in patients with sepsis are few. This study is aimed at investigating the association between RPR levels and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: Data of patients with sepsis were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. The best cut-off value was calculated by establishing the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and the predictive ability of different indicators was compared through the area under the curve (AUC). The association between RPR levels and 28-day mortality was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Restrictive cubic spline analysis was applied to the multivariable Cox model to investigate the nonlinear relationship between RPR and 28-day mortality. Results: A total of 3367 patients with sepsis were included in the study. A nonlinear relationship was observed between RPR and 28-day mortality, showing a trend of a first rapid increase and a gradual increase. For the prediction of mortality, the best cut-off value for RPR was 0.109, with an AUC of 0.728 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.709-0.747). The predictive capability of RPR was superior to those of RDW, platelet, SOFA score, and SAPS II score. After adjusting for various confounding factors, high RPR was significantly associated with increased mortality with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.210 (95% CI: 1.045-1.400) for categorical variables and 2.826 (95% CI: 2.025-3.944) for continuous variables. Conclusion: Elevated RPR level is significantly correlated with a high risk of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis and can be a new predictor of patient prognosis.

Association of Tumor Size With Prognosis in Patients With Resectable Endometrial Cancer: A SEER Database Analysis.

This study aimed to explore the relationship between tumor size (Ts) and prognosis in endometrial cancer (EC). A total of 52,208 patients with EC who underwent total hysterectomy were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database. Overall survival (OS) and endometrial cancer-specific survival (ESS) were chosen as survival outcomes. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore the effect of Ts on prognosis. The restricted cubic splines based on the Cox regression model were used to determine the nonlinear relationship between Ts and survival. When Ts was analyzed as a categorical variable, the risk of death increased with Ts, with the highest risk in patients with Ts > 9 cm with regard to all-cause death (ACD) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.317; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.196-1.450; P < 0.001) and endometrial cancer-specific death (ESD) (HR, 1.378; 95% CI, 1.226-1.549; P < 0.001). As a continuous variable, Ts showed a nonlinear relationship with ACD (HR, 1.061; 95% CI, 1.053-1.069; P < 0.001) and ESD (HR, 1.062; 95% CI, 1.052-1.073; P < 0.001). The risk of mortality increased quickly with Ts when Ts was less than 7.5 cm and then leveled off when Ts was larger than 7.5 cm in all patients. Among patients with lymph node metastasis, the risk of poor prognosis decreased rapidly with Ts when Ts was less than 3.5 cm, and subsequently increased sharply with Ts when Ts ranged from 3.5 cm to 7.5 cm, and then increased slowly when Ts was larger than 7.5 cm (P < 0.001 for nonlinearity). There was a nonlinear relationship between Ts and prognosis in patients with EC. Clinicians should not ignore the impact of small tumors on prognosis in EC patients with lymph node metastasis.

Machine learning for the prediction of acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is the most common and serious complication of sepsis, accompanied by high mortality and disease burden. The early prediction of AKI is critical for timely intervention and ultimately improves prognosis. This study aims to establish and validate predictive models based on novel machine learning (ML) algorithms for AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis. METHODS: Data of patients with sepsis were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC- III) database. Feature selection was performed using a Boruta algorithm. ML algorithms such as logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) were applied for model construction by utilizing tenfold cross-validation. The performances of these models were assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical application. Moreover, the discrimination of ML-based models was compared with those of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the customized Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II model. RESULTS: A total of 3176 critically ill patients with sepsis were included for analysis, of which 2397 cases (75.5%) developed AKI during hospitalization. A total of 36 variables were selected for model construction. The models of LR, KNN, SVM, decision tree, random forest, ANN, XGBoost, SOFA and SAPS II score were established and obtained area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.7365, 0.6637, 0.7353, 0.7492, 0.7787, 0.7547, 0.821, 0.6457 and 0.7015, respectively. The XGBoost model had the best predictive performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical application among all models. CONCLUSION: The ML models can be reliable tools for predicting AKI in septic patients. The XGBoost model has the best predictive performance, which can be used to assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and implementing early interventions to reduce mortality.

Trends in the Incidence and DALYs of Urolithiasis From 1990 to 2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: To provide a comprehensive assessment of the estimated burden and trend of urolithiasis at the global, regional, and national levels. Methods: The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of urolithiasis from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in urolithiasis burden. Results: In 2019, the ASRs of the incidence and DALYs were 1,394.03/100,000 and 7.35/100,000, respectively. The ASRs of the incidence and DALYs of urolithiasis decreased from 1990 to 2019 with EAPCs of -0.83 and -1.77, respectively. Males had a higher burden of urolithiasis than females. In 2019, the highest burden of urolithiasis was observed in regions with high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), particularly in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The burden of urolithiasis increased in most countries or territories. The burden of urolithiasis and SDI had a non-linear relationship, and the estimated value of urolithiasis burden was the highest when the SDI value was ~0.7. Conclusion: Globally, the ASRs of the incidence and DALYs of urolithiasis decreased from 1990 to 2019, but an increasing trend was observed among many countries. More effective and appropriate medical and health policies are needed to prevent and early intervene in urolithiasis.

Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Suffering from Septic Shock.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important complication in critically ill patients, especially in sepsis and septic shock patients. Early prediction of AKI in septic shock can provide clinicians with sufficient information for timely intervention so that improve the patients' survival rate and quality of life. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram that predicts the risk of AKI in patients with septic shock in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: The data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database between 2001 and 2012. The primary outcome was AKI in the 48 h following ICU admission. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the independent risk factors of AKI. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated according to the calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve. RESULTS: A total of 2415 patients with septic shock were included in this study. In the training and validation cohort, 1091 (64.48%) of 1690 patients and 475 (65.52%) of 725 patients developed AKI, respectively. The predictive factors for nomogram construction were gender, ethnicity, congestive heart failure, diabetes, obesity, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), bilirubin, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and mechanical ventilation. The model had a good discrimination with the area under the ROC curve of 0.756 and 0.760 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve for probability of AKI in septic shock showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis indicated that the nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: The proposed nomogram can quickly and effectively predict the risk of AKI at an early stage in patients with septic shock in ICU, which can provide information for timely and efficient intervention in patients with septic shock in the ICU setting.

Secular Trend in the Incidence of Conduct Disorder in China from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the secular trends of conduct disorder (CD) incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 under the joinpoint analysis and the age-period-cohort framework. METHODS: The sex-specific incidence rates of CD from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the age group. The joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model were conducted using the average annual percent changes and relative risks as size effects, respectively. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CD incidence showed an overall increasing trend in both sexes, and this variation trend was observed in almost all age groups. The annual sex-specific ASRs were lower in China than those worldwide but were rapidly growing. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for CD, with the highest risk in adolescents aged 10 to 14 years, followed by children aged 5 to 9 years, but a relatively lower risk in adolescents aged 15 to 19 years than in other age groups. However, period and cohort effects were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: CD incidence rates in China have been increasing in both sexes from 1990 to 2019. Further studies are necessary to explain the etiology of these increases and promote the early identification of individuals at risk for developing CD.

Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individual and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing the trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. METHODS: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and the relative risk were calculated using the joinpoint regression model and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. Age effects exerted the most significant impact on migraine incidence. Period effects showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of cohort effects, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the incidence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. CONCLUSION: Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.