A stable and replicable neural signature of lifespan adversity in the adult brain.

Environmental adversities constitute potent risk factors for psychiatric disorders. Evidence suggests the brain adapts to adversity, possibly in an adversity-type and region-specific manner. However, the long-term effects of adversity on brain structure and the association of individual neurobiological heterogeneity with behavior have yet to be elucidated. Here we estimated normative models of structural brain development based on a lifespan adversity profile in a longitudinal at-risk cohort aged 25 years (n = 169). This revealed widespread morphometric changes in the brain, with partially adversity-specific features. This pattern was replicated at the age of 33 years (n = 114) and in an independent sample at 22 years (n = 115). At the individual level, greater volume contractions relative to the model were predictive of future anxiety. We show a stable neurobiological signature of adversity that persists into adulthood and emphasize the importance of considering individual-level rather than group-level predictions to explain emerging psychopathology.

Cerebellar Atypicalities in Autism?

BACKGROUND: The cerebellum contains more than 50% of the brain's neurons and is involved in social cognition. Cerebellar anatomical atypicalities have repeatedly been reported in individuals with autism. However, studies have yielded inconsistent findings, likely because of a lack of statistical power, and did not capture the clinical and neuroanatomical diversity of autism. Our aim was to better understand cerebellar anatomy and its diversity in autism. METHODS: We studied cerebellar gray matter morphology in 274 individuals with autism and 219 control subjects of a multicenter European cohort, EU-AIMS LEAP (European Autism Interventions-A Multicentre Study for Developing New Medications; Longitudinal European Autism Project). To ensure the robustness of our results, we conducted lobular parcellation of the cerebellum with 2 different pipelines in addition to voxel-based morphometry. We performed statistical analyses with linear, multivariate (including normative modeling), and meta-analytic approaches to capture the diversity of cerebellar anatomy in individuals with autism and control subjects. Finally, we performed a dimensional analysis of cerebellar anatomy in an independent cohort of 352 individuals with autism-related symptoms. RESULTS: We did not find any significant difference in the cerebellum when comparing individuals with autism and control subjects using linear models. In addition, there were no significant deviations in our normative models in the cerebellum in individuals with autism. Finally, we found no evidence of cerebellar atypicalities related to age, IQ, sex, or social functioning in individuals with autism. CONCLUSIONS: Despite positive results published in the last decade from relatively small samples, our results suggest that there is no striking difference in cerebellar anatomy of individuals with autism.

The normative modeling framework for computational psychiatry.

Normative modeling is an emerging and innovative framework for mapping individual differences at the level of a single subject or observation in relation to a reference model. It involves charting centiles of variation across a population in terms of mappings between biology and behavior, which can then be used to make statistical inferences at the level of the individual. The fields of computational psychiatry and clinical neuroscience have been slow to transition away from patient versus 'healthy' control analytic approaches, probably owing to a lack of tools designed to properly model biological heterogeneity of mental disorders. Normative modeling provides a solution to address this issue and moves analysis away from case-control comparisons that rely on potentially noisy clinical labels. Here we define a standardized protocol to guide users through, from start to finish, normative modeling analysis using the Predictive Clinical Neuroscience toolkit (PCNtoolkit). We describe the input data selection process, provide intuition behind the various modeling choices and conclude by demonstrating several examples of downstream analyses that the normative model may facilitate, such as stratification of high-risk individuals, subtyping and behavioral predictive modeling. The protocol takes ~1-3 h to complete.

Charting brain growth and aging at high spatial precision.

Defining reference models for population variation, and the ability to study individual deviations is essential for understanding inter-individual variability and its relation to the onset and progression of medical conditions. In this work, we assembled a reference cohort of neuroimaging data from 82 sites (N=58,836; ages 2-100) and used normative modeling to characterize lifespan trajectories of cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Models are validated against a manually quality checked subset (N=24,354) and we provide an interface for transferring to new data sources. We showcase the clinical value by applying the models to a transdiagnostic psychiatric sample (N=1985), showing they can be used to quantify variability underlying multiple disorders whilst also refining case-control inferences. These models will be augmented with additional samples and imaging modalities as they become available. This provides a common reference platform to bind results from different studies and ultimately paves the way for personalized clinical decision-making.

Interindividual Differences in Cortical Thickness and Their Genomic Underpinnings in Autism Spectrum Disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is accompanied by highly individualized neuroanatomical deviations that potentially map onto distinct genotypes and clinical phenotypes. This study aimed to link differences in brain anatomy to specific biological pathways to pave the way toward targeted therapeutic interventions. METHODS: The authors examined neurodevelopmental differences in cortical thickness and their genomic underpinnings in a large and clinically diverse sample of 360 individuals with ASD and 279 typically developing control subjects (ages 6-30 years) within the EU-AIMS Longitudinal European Autism Project (LEAP). The authors also examined neurodevelopmental differences and their potential pathophysiological mechanisms between clinical ASD subgroups that differed in the severity and pattern of sensory features. RESULTS: In addition to significant between-group differences in "core" ASD brain regions (i.e., fronto-temporal and cingulate regions), individuals with ASD manifested as neuroanatomical outliers within the neurotypical cortical thickness range in a wider neural system, which was enriched for genes known to be implicated in ASD on the genetic and/or transcriptomic level. Within these regions, the individuals' total (i.e., accumulated) degree of neuroanatomical atypicality was significantly correlated with higher polygenic scores for ASD and other psychiatric conditions, and it scaled with measures of symptom severity. Differences in cortical thickness deviations were also associated with distinct sensory subgroups, especially in brain regions expressing genes involved in excitatory rather than inhibitory neurotransmission. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings corroborate the link between macroscopic differences in brain anatomy and the molecular mechanisms underpinning heterogeneity in ASD, and provide future targets for stratification and subtyping.

Replicating extensive brain structural heterogeneity in individuals with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Identifying brain processes involved in the risk and development of mental disorders is a major aim. We recently reported substantial interindividual heterogeneity in brain structural aberrations among patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Estimating the normative range of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) data among healthy individuals using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) enables us to map individual deviations from the healthy range in unseen datasets. Here, we aim to replicate our previous results in two independent samples of patients with schizophrenia (n1 = 94; n2 = 105), bipolar disorder (n1 = 116; n2 = 61), and healthy individuals (n1 = 400; n2 = 312). In line with previous findings with exception of the cerebellum our results revealed robust group level differences between patients and healthy individuals, yet only a small proportion of patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder exhibited extreme negative deviations from normality in the same brain regions. These direct replications support that group level-differences in brain structure disguise considerable individual differences in brain aberrations, with important implications for the interpretation and generalization of group-level brain imaging findings to the individual with a mental disorder.

Atypical Brain Asymmetry in Autism-A Candidate for Clinically Meaningful Stratification.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorder ("autism") is a highly heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition with few effective treatments for core and associated features. To make progress we need to both identify and validate neural markers that help to parse heterogeneity to tailor therapies to specific neurobiological profiles. Atypical hemispheric lateralization is a stable feature across studies in autism, but its potential as a neural stratification marker has not been widely examined. METHODS: In order to dissect heterogeneity in lateralization in autism, we used the large EU-AIMS (European Autism Interventions-A Multicentre Study for Developing New Medications) Longitudinal European Autism Project dataset comprising 352 individuals with autism and 233 neurotypical control subjects as well as a replication dataset from ABIDE (Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange) (513 individuals with autism, 691 neurotypical subjects) using a promising approach that moves beyond mean group comparisons. We derived gray matter voxelwise laterality values for each subject and modeled individual deviations from the normative pattern of brain laterality across age using normative modeling. RESULTS: Individuals with autism had highly individualized patterns of both extreme right- and leftward deviations, particularly in language, motor, and visuospatial regions, associated with symptom severity. Language delay explained most variance in extreme rightward patterns, whereas core autism symptom severity explained most variance in extreme leftward patterns. Follow-up analyses showed that a stepwise pattern emerged, with individuals with autism with language delay showing more pronounced rightward deviations than individuals with autism without language delay. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses corroborate the need for novel (dimensional) approaches to delineate the heterogeneous neuroanatomy in autism and indicate that atypical lateralization may constitute a neurophenotype for clinically meaningful stratification in autism.

Fractionating autism based on neuroanatomical normative modeling.

Autism is a complex neurodevelopmental condition with substantial phenotypic, biological, and etiologic heterogeneity. It remains a challenge to identify biomarkers to stratify autism into replicable cognitive or biological subtypes. Here, we aim to introduce a novel methodological framework for parsing neuroanatomical subtypes within a large cohort of individuals with autism. We used cortical thickness (CT) in a large and well-characterized sample of 316 participants with autism (88 female, age mean: 17.2 ± 5.7) and 206 with neurotypical development (79 female, age mean: 17.5 ± 6.1) aged 6-31 years across six sites from the EU-AIMS multi-center Longitudinal European Autism Project. Five biologically based putative subtypes were derived using normative modeling of CT and spectral clustering. Three of these clusters showed relatively widespread decreased CT and two showed relatively increased CT. These subtypes showed morphometric differences from one another, providing a potential explanation for inconsistent case-control findings in autism, and loaded differentially and more strongly onto symptoms and polygenic risk, indicating a dilution of clinical effects across heterogeneous cohorts. Our results provide an important step towards parsing the heterogeneous neurobiology of autism.

From pattern classification to stratification: towards conceptualizing the heterogeneity of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Pattern classification and stratification approaches have increasingly been used in research on Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) over the last ten years with the goal of translation towards clinical applicability. Here, we present an extensive scoping literature review on those two approaches. We screened a total of 635 studies, of which 57 pattern classification and 19 stratification studies were included. We observed large variance across pattern classification studies in terms of predictive performance from about 60% to 98% accuracy, which is among other factors likely linked to sampling bias, different validation procedures across studies, the heterogeneity of ASD and differences in data quality. Stratification studies were less prevalent with only two studies reporting replications and just a few showing external validation. While some identified strata based on cognition and intelligence reappear across studies, biology as a stratification marker is clearly underexplored. In summary, mapping biological differences at the level of the individual with ASD is a major challenge for the field now. Conceptualizing those mappings and individual trajectories that lead to the diagnosis of ASD, will become a major challenge in the near future.

Conceptualizing mental disorders as deviations from normative functioning.

Normative models are a class of emerging statistical techniques useful for understanding the heterogeneous biology underlying psychiatric disorders at the level of the individual participant. Analogous to normative growth charts used in paediatric medicine for plotting child development in terms of height or weight as a function of age, normative models chart variation in clinical cohorts in terms of mappings between quantitative biological measures and clinically relevant variables. An emerging body of literature has demonstrated that such techniques are excellent tools for parsing the heterogeneity in clinical cohorts by providing statistical inferences at the level of the individual participant with respect to the normative range. Here, we provide a unifying review of the theory and application of normative modelling for understanding the biological and clinical heterogeneity underlying mental disorders. We first provide a statistically grounded yet non-technical overview of the conceptual underpinnings of normative modelling and propose a conceptual framework to link the many different methodological approaches that have been proposed for this purpose. We survey the literature employing these techniques, focusing principally on applications of normative modelling to quantitative neuroimaging-based biomarkers in psychiatry and, finally, we provide methodological considerations and recommendations to guide future applications of these techniques. We show that normative modelling provides a means by which the importance of modelling individual differences can be brought from theory to concrete data analysis procedures for understanding heterogeneous mental disorders and ultimately a promising route towards precision medicine in psychiatry.

Correction: Conceptualizing mental disorders as deviations from normative functioning.

A correction to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Dissecting the Heterogeneous Cortical Anatomy of Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Normative Models.

BACKGROUND: The neuroanatomical basis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has remained elusive, mostly owing to high biological and clinical heterogeneity among diagnosed individuals. Despite considerable effort toward understanding ASD using neuroimaging biomarkers, heterogeneity remains a barrier, partly because studies mostly employ case-control approaches, which assume that the clinical group is homogeneous. METHODS: Here, we used an innovative normative modeling approach to parse biological heterogeneity in ASD. We aimed to dissect the neuroanatomy of ASD by mapping the deviations from a typical pattern of neuroanatomical development at the level of the individual and to show the necessity to look beyond the case-control paradigm to understand the neurobiology of ASD. We first estimated a vertexwise normative model of cortical thickness development using Gaussian process regression, then mapped the deviation of each participant from the typical pattern. For this, we employed a heterogeneous cross-sectional sample of 206 typically developing individuals (127 males) and 321 individuals with ASD (232 males) (6-31 years of age). RESULTS: We found few case-control differences, but the ASD cohort showed highly individualized patterns of deviations in cortical thickness that were widespread across the brain. These deviations correlated with severity of repetitive behaviors and social communicative symptoms, although only repetitive behaviors survived corrections for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: Our results 1) reinforce the notion that individuals with ASD show distinct, highly individualized trajectories of brain development and 2) show that by focusing on common effects (i.e., the "average ASD participant"), the case-control approach disguises considerable interindividual variation crucial for precision medicine.