Substantial short- and long-term health effect due to PM2.5 and the constituents even under future emission reductions in China.

Heavy pollution events of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) frequently occur in China, seriously affecting the human health. However, how meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions affect PM2.5 and the major constituents, as well as the subsequent health effect, remains unclear. Here, based on regional climate and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), the PM2.5 and major constituents in China at present and mid-century under the carbon neutral scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-2.6 are simulated. Due to anthropogenic emission reduction, concentrations of PM2.5 and the constituents decrease substantially in SSP1-2.6. The long-term exposure premature deaths at present are 2.23 million per year in mainland China, which is projected to increase by 76 % under SSP1-2.6 despite emission reduction, primarily attributable to aging which strikingly offsets the effect of air quality improvement. The number of annual premature deaths resulting from short-term exposure is 228,104 in mainland China at present, which is projected to decrease in the future. Using North China Plain as an example, we identify that among the major constituents of PM2.5, organic carbon leads to the most short-term exposure deaths considering the largest exposure-response coefficient. Regarding the abnormally meteorological conditions, we find, relative to low relative humidity (RH) and non-stagnation, the compound events, defined as concurrence of high RH and atmospheric stagnation, exhibit an amplified role inducing larger premature deaths compared to the additive effect of the individual event of high RH and atmospheric stagnation. This nonlinear effect occurs at both present and future, but diminished in future due to emission reductions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the long- and short-term premature deaths associated with PM2.5 and the constituents, as well as the critical effect of extreme weather events.

The Impact of Meteorology and Emissions on Surface Ozone in Shandong Province, China, during 2014-2019.

China has been experiencing severe ozone pollution problems in recent years. While a number of studies have focused on the ozone-pollution-prone regions such as the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta regions, few studies have investigated the mechanisms modulating the interannual variability of ozone concentrations in Shandong Province, where a large population is located and is often subject to ozone pollution. By utilizing both the reanalysis dataset and regional numerical model (WRF-CMAQ), we delve into the potential governing mechanisms of ozone pollution in Shandong Province-especially over the major port city of Qingdao-during summer 2014-2019. During this period, ozone pollution in Qingdao exceeded the tier II standard of the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality (GB 3095-2012) for 75 days. From the perspective of meteorology, the high-pressure ridge over Baikal Lake and to its northeast, which leads to a relatively low humidity and sufficient sunlight, is the most critical weather system inducing high-ozone events in Qingdao. In terms of emissions, biogenic emissions contribute to ozone enhancement close to 10 ppb in the west and north of Shandong Province. Numerical experiments show that the local impact of biogenic emissions on ozone production in Shandong Province is relatively small, whereas biogenic emissions on the southern flank of Shandong Province enhance ozone production and further transport northeastward, resulting in an increase in ozone concentrations over Shandong Province. For the port city of Qingdao, ship emissions increase ozone concentrations when sea breezes (easterlies) prevail over Qingdao, with the 95th percentile reaching 8.7 ppb. The findings in this study have important implications for future ozone pollution in Shandong Province, as well as the northern and coastal areas in China.

The enhanced role of atmospheric reduced nitrogen deposition in future over East Asia-Northwest Pacific.

The atmospheric nitrogen deposition plays a crucial role in natural ecosystem, and the changes in emissions substantially affect the amount of nitrogen deposition. Along with the decrease in NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions, the reduced nitrogen deposition may play a more important role in future. However, to what extent these changes may modify the reduced nitrogen deposition across East Asia, which is fulfilled with a large amount of nitrogen deposition, to the northwestern Pacific has not yet to be clear. Based on the results of multi-model ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), the future changes of reduced nitrogen (NHx) deposition is firstly examined. Here we show the changes of NHx deposition flux is substantially modulated by both climate change and emissions, exhibiting an increasing trend over East Asia-Northwest Pacific in future under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, largely controlled by increase of NH3 emissions, contrasting to the oxidized nitrogen deposition which is projected to decrease. Specifically, the ratio of NHx to total nitrogen deposition in eastern China increases from 38% at present to 56% by the end of the century under RCP 8.5, indicative of a transition in the form of dominant nitrogen deposition from oxidized to reduced one. The increase is clearly discernable over the marginal seas and northwestern Pacific. Moreover, we identify a meridional shift of high wet NHx deposition from northern China in summer to southern China in the other seasons. Based on simulations from regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), we find that the synergistically nonlinear modulation of NHx concentration and precipitation triggers the north-south shift of wet NHx deposition. The findings in this study indicate a potentially more important role of reduced nitrogen deposition on the natural ecosystem in future.

Characterizing the distinct modulation of future emissions on summer ozone concentrations between urban and rural areas over China.

Previous studies on ozone pollution primarily focus on the characterization of ozone on a large regional scale, yet much less attention has been paid towards the contrast between urban and surrounding suburban-rural areas. As anthropogenic emissions are projected to decrease in the coming decades, the evolutions of ozone concentrations over urban and suburban-rural areas are compared using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The top 25 city clusters are firstly identified across China based on the amount of NOx emissions and population size. At present, the averages of maximum daily 8-h (MDA8) ozone concentrations over the suburban-rural areas (65.74 ppbv) among these city clusters are higher than the corresponding urban areas (62.00 ppbv). The projections in 2050s depend on the scenarios. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios such as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 indicative of primary decreases in anthropogenic emissions, the mean MDA8 ozone concentrations in suburban-rural areas decrease more than urban areas. In contrast, the gap of higher MDA8 ozone concentrations in suburban-rural than urban areas increases under SSP3-7.0 concomitant with increase in anthropogenic emissions. The strongest response to emission changes is found in SSP1-2.6, in which anthropogenic emission reduction leads to lower MDA8 ozone concentrations in the suburban-rural than urban areas, reversing the present state of higher ozone concentrations in the suburban-rural areas. The feature abovementioned regarding changes of mean MDA8 ozone concentrations is largely reproduced in the response of ozone exceedance. The finding highlights different efficacies of anthropogenic emissions in urban from suburban-rural areas. In a region like China where the population density is much higher in urban than suburban-rural regions, the benefit of ozone reduction due to large emission reductions (e.g., SSP1-2.6) is diminished to some extent because the effect is larger in suburban-rural areas.