The gut microbe-derived metabolite trimethylamine-N-oxide induces aortic valve fibrosis via PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s signaling in vitro and in vivo.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The gut microbe-derived metabolite trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) has been implicated in the development of cardiovascular fibrosis. Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress occurs after the dysfunction of ER and its structure. The three signals PERK/ATF-4, IRE-1α/XBP-1s and ATF6 are activated upon ER stress. Recent reports have suggested that the activation of PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s signaling contributes to cardiovascular fibrosis. However, whether TMAO mediates aortic valve fibrosis by activating PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s signaling remains unclear. METHODS: Human aortic valve interstitial cells (AVICs) were isolated from aortic valve leaflets. PERK IRE-1α, ATF-4, XBP-1s and CHOP expression, and production of collagen Ⅰ and TGF-ß1 were analyzed following treatment with TMAO. The role of PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s signaling pathways in TMAO-induced fibrotic formation was determined using inhibitors and small interfering RNA. RESULTS: Diseased valves produced greater levels of ATF-4, XBP-1, collagen Ⅰ and TGF-ß1. Interestingly, diseased cells exhibited augmented PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s activation after TMAO stimulation. Inhibition and silencing of PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s each resulted in enhanced suppression of TMAO-induced fibrogenic activity in diseased cells. Mice treated with dietary choline supplementation had substantially increased TMAO levels and aortic valve fibrosis, which were reduced by 3,3-dimethyl-1-butanol (DMB, an inhibitor of trimethylamine formation) treatment. Moreover, a high-choline and high-fat diet remodeled the gut microbiota in mice. CONCLUSIONS: TMAO promoted aortic valve fibrosis through activation of PERK/ATF-4 and IRE-1α/XBP-1s signaling pathways in vitro and in vivo. Modulation of diet, gut microbiota, TMAO, PERK/ATF-4 and IRE1-α/XBP-1s may be a promising approach to prevent aortic valve fibrosis.

New Insights into Rate Control: Time in Target Range of Resting Heart Rate and Major Adverse Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation.

Background: Few studies have examined the relationship between the fluctuation of heart rate control over time and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation. Our study sought to evaluate the independent association between time in target range (TIR) of resting heart rate and cardiovascular outcomes in the AFFIRM (Atrial Fibrillation Follow-Up Investigation of Rhythm Management) study. Methods: Target range of resting heart was defined as less than 80 beats per minute (bpm) for both rate and rhythm control groups. Time in target range was estimated over the first 8 months of follow-up using Rosendaal interpolation method. The association between TIR of resting heart rate and cardiovascular outcomes was estimated using adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: Time in target range of resting heart rate (months 0 through 8) was 71 ± 34% in the rate control group and 83 ± 27% in the rhythm control group. Each 1-SD increase in TIR of resting heart rate was significantly associated with lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events after full adjustment for demographics, medical history and history of prior heart surgery, as well as all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Time in target range of resting heart rate independently predicts the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation. Long-term maintenance of heart rate on target is of great importance for patients with atrial fibrillation.

Serum Klotho Modifies the Associations of 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality.

BACKGROUND: The association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and mortality remains controversial. Klotho, a biomarker of vitamin D activation and metabolism, may play a key role in this association. However, it is unclear whether the association between vitamin D deficiency and mortality risk is modified by klotho levels. Therefore, this study investigated the joint association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and klotho with mortality risk in American community-dwelling adults. METHODS: A total of 9870 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2016) were included in our study. Mortality data were ascertained by linking participants to National Death Index records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association among serum 25(OH)D, serum klotho, and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. RESULTS: We found a significant interaction between klotho and serum 25(OH)D in all-cause mortality (P = .028). With klotho > 848.4 pg/mL (risk threshold on mortality), no significant all-cause and CVD mortality risk was observed at any level of serum 25(OH)D. However, with klotho < 848.4 pg/mL, a significant all-cause and CVD mortality risk was observed with serum 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L [hazards ratio (HR), 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-1.69; HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16-3.45) and serum 25(OH)D of continuous variable (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, .97-.99; HR, 0.98; 95% CI, .98-.99). In addition, vitamin D metabolism disruption accessed by the combination of decreasing serum 25(OH)D (<50 nmol/L) and klotho (<848.4 pg/mL) was associated with significant all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.11-1.96) and CVD mortality (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.48-3.75). CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D-associated mortality risk is observed only with concurrently decreasing klotho, indicating that vitamin D metabolism dysfunction increases the risk of mortality. Klotho levels could help predict long-term mortality outcomes and thus may be useful concurrently for guiding vitamin D supplementation therapy decision-making in populations with vitamin D deficiency.

Intensive Glycemic Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes Patients With Cardiac Autonomic Dysfunction: The ACCORD Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the presence of cardiac autonomic dysfunction denoted by low heart rate variability (HRV) modifies the effect of intensive glycemic therapy on outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study included 7946 participants in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial from January 2001 through June 2009. Heart rate variability measures included standard deviation of all normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive differences between normal-to-normal intervals (rMSSD). Abnormal values were defined based on less than the 10th percentile for SDNN and rMSSD. RESULTS: Compared with standard therapy, intensive therapy was associated with improved primary outcome (composite of cardiovascular events) in the low-HRV group (SDNN: HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84; rMSSD: HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.84), but not in the normal-HRV group (SDNN: HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.05; rMSSD: HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.05). A similar pattern was found for coronary heart disease. Conversely, intensive therapy had a neutral effect on all cause death in the low-HRV group (SDNN: HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.54 to 1.41; rMSSD: HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.17;), but increase risk of all-cause death in the normal-HRV group (SDNN: HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.46; rMSSD: HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.51). Intensive therapy induced a greater risk of hypoglycemia in the normal-HRV group than that in the low-HRV group. CONCLUSION: Cardiac autonomic dysfunction expressed as low HRV identified subpopulations in ACCORD with more benefits and less harms from intensive therapy.

Interplay of heart rate variability and resting heart rate on mortality in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: Heart rate variability (HRV) and resting heart rate (RHR) are usually analyzed and interpreted separately. We aimed to assess the interplay of HRV and RHR on mortality in type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The study included 7,529 participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. HRV metrics included standard deviation of all normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive differences between normal-to-normal intervals (rMSSD). Abnormal values were defined based on <25th percentile for HRV and >75th percentile for RHR. Interactions of HRV status and RHR status were tested on multiplicative and additive scales. Results were validated in a subset of patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 745) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. RESULTS: Low SDNN was associated with increased all-cause mortality in the high RHR group (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.29-1.97), but not in the normal RHR group. Compared with those who had neither low SDNN nor high RHR, the presence of either low SDNN or high RHR was not significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. In contrast, the combination of low SDNN and high RHR was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.43-1.97). Significant multiplicative and additive interactions were found between HRV status and RHR status on risk of all-cause mortality (all Pinteraction < 0.05). Similar findings were observed for cardiovascular mortality, in analyses using rMSSD, and in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: The association between HRV and mortality risk is modified by RHR levels. Furthermore, low HRV and high RHR have interdependent and synergistic associations with mortality risk.

Cardiovascular effects of weight loss in old adults with overweight/obesity according to change in skeletal muscle mass.

BACKGROUND: Patients with overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes are encouraged to lose weight, but not all losing weight gain better cardiovascular health, especially old adults. The change in skeletal muscle mass (SMM) could be the key that explains the heterogenous cardiovascular effects of weight loss. This study aims to assess whether the cardiovascular effects of weight loss vary for those gaining skeletal muscle along with weight loss. METHODS: The old adults with overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes in the Look AHEAD study having muscle measurement from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry were included. Based on the weight change (WC) and SMM change (SMMC) between baseline and the 4-year follow-up, participants were allocated into three groups-weight gain (WG) group, weight loss with muscle loss (WL-ML) group and weight loss with muscle gain (WL-MG) group. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to evaluate the cardiovascular risk of those gaining or losing SMM with weight loss compared with those gaining weight. Among the participants with weight loss, the ratio of SMMC/WC was calculated, and the association of SMMC/WC with primary cardiovascular outcome was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 491 participants were included in the study with an average age of 64.56 ± 3.81 years old. A total of 47.0% were male and 49.9% were from the intensive lifestyle intervention arm. Based on their WC and SMMC, 43 were assigned to the WG group, 373 to the WL-ML group and 75 to the WL-MG group. Over a follow-up of almost 10 years, 97 participants encountered the primary endpoint. The WG group had the highest incidence of 25.59%, the WL-MG group had the lowest incidence of 9.33% and the WL-ML group had 21.18% (P = 0.040). In the fourth adjusted Cox model, the WL-MG group achieved significantly decreased odds of the primary endpoint compared with the WG group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.12, 0.87], P = 0.026), whilst the WL-ML group did not (HR 0.91, 95% CI [0.47, 1.78], P = 0.670). Among the participants with weight loss, when SMMC/WC reached around 50%, this HR soared to approximately two-fold. CONCLUSIONS: The participants gaining SMM along with weight loss achieved the lowest odds of adverse cardiovascular events, whilst those who lost SMM along with weight loss had comparable cardiovascular risk with those gaining weight. The more muscle lost during weight loss, the greater the harm. The cardiovascular effects of weight loss were modulated by whether the participants gained SMM meanwhile losing weight.

Association between the insulin resistance and all-cause mortality in patients with moderate and severe aortic stenosis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance (IR). However, whether the TyG index has prognostic value in patients with moderate to severe aortic stenosis (AS) remains unclear. METHODS: This study enrolled 317 patients with moderate to severe AS at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University. The patients were grouped according to the cut-off value of the TyG index. Cox regression with Firth's penalized maximum likelihood method and restricted cubic splines regression were conducted to assess the association between the TyG index and all-cause mortality. The added value of the TyG index included in the traditional risk factors model for outcome prediction was also analyzed. RESULTS: Among 317 patients (mean age 67.70 years, 62.8% male), there was 84 all-cause mortality during a median 38.07 months follow-up. After fully adjusting for confounders, a per-unit increase in the TyG index was associated with a 62% higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.622, 95% CI 1.086-2.416, p = 0.018). The restricted cubic splines regression model revealed a linear association between the TyG index and the risk of all-cause mortality (p for nonlinearity = 0.632). The addition of the TyG index in the basic risk model has an incremental effect on the prediction of mortality [C-statistic change from 0.755 to 0.768; continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI): 0.299 (0.051-0.546), p = 0.017; integrated discrimination improvement: 0.017 (0.001-0.033), p = 0.044]. CONCLUSIONS: Higher IR assessed by the TyG index was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality in patients with moderate and severe AS.

Effect of blood pressure index on clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure and chronic kidney disease.

AIMS: This study aimed to assess the effect of blood pressure (BP) index, in terms of level and variability, on the progression of cardiovascular and renal diseases in patients with both heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study involved patients with HF and CKD from the database of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. The study endpoint includes the following: (i) primary endpoint, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, renal events, and all-cause death; (ii) CVD events; (iii) renal events; and (iv) all-cause death. Among 3939 participants in the CRIC study, a total of 382 patients were included. The duration of the follow-up was 6.3 ± 2.7 years, the age was 60.2 ± 8.9 years, and 57.6% were male. BP index included 20 indicators in relation to BP level and variability, 4 of which were analysed including baseline systolic BP (SBP), standard deviation of SBP, coefficient of variation of diastolic BP (DBP CV), and average real variability of pulse pressure. In the Cox regression analysis after adjustment, baseline SBP was significant for the risk of primary endpoint [hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.44, P = 0.02] and renal events (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.22-1.95, P < 0.001), and DBP CV was significant for the risk of primary endpoint (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, P = 0.02) and CVD events (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07, P < 0.01). The result of the forest plot depicted that baseline SBP had a linear association with the risk of CVD and renal events (P = 0.04 and 0.001, respectively) and DBP CV with CVD events (P = 0.02). As the restricted cubic spline models displayed, DBP CV featured a J- or L-curved association with the primary endpoint, renal events, and all-cause death (P for nonlinearity = 0.01, <0.001, and 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The baseline SBP and DBP CV may remain significant for clinical outcomes in patients with both HF and CKD. The increase in baseline SBP is associated with a higher risk of primary endpoint, CVD events, and renal events, and the increase in DBP CV with a higher risk of CVD events. Concerning nonlinear association, DBP CV features a J- or L-curved relationship with the primary endpoint, renal events, and all-cause death, with a higher risk at both low and high values. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; unique identifier: NCT00304148.

Heterogeneous treatment effects of coronary artery bypass grafting in ischemic cardiomyopathy: A machine learning causal forest analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We aim to evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and to identify a group of patients to have greater benefits from coronary artery bypass grafting compared with medical therapy alone. METHODS: Machine learning causal forest modeling was performed to identify the heterogeneous treatment effects of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy from the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure trial. The risks of death from any cause and death from cardiovascular causes between coronary artery bypass grafting and medical therapy alone were assessed in the identified subgroups. RESULTS: Among 1212 patients enrolled in the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure trial, left ventricular end-systolic volume index, serum creatinine, and age were identified by the machine learning algorithm to distinguish patients with heterogeneous treatment effects. Among patients with left ventricular end-systolic volume index greater than 84 mL/m2 and age 60.27 years or less, coronary artery bypass grafting was associated with a significantly lower risk of death from any cause (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.45-0.84) and death from cardiovascular causes (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89). By contrast, the survival benefits of coronary artery bypass grafting no longer exist in patients with left ventricular end-systolic volume index 84 mL/m2 or less and serum creatinine 1.04 mg/dL or less, or patients with left ventricular end-systolic volume index greater than 84 mL/m2 and age more than 60.27 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current post hoc analysis of the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure trial identified heterogeneous treatment effects of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy. Younger patients with severe left ventricular enlargement were more likely to derive greater survival benefits from coronary artery bypass grafting.

Alirocumab effect on preventing periprocedural ischaemic events in coronary heart disease patients undergoing coronary stenting (APPEASE trial): study protocol of a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)-related myocardial infarction (type 4a MI) and major periprocedural myocardial injury have been demonstrated leading to poor prognosis of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) undergoing elective PCI and still remain high occurrence even after the therapy of dual antiplatelet agents and statins. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor alirocumab has been shown to be effectively in reducing the risk of acute MI (AMI). However, the effect of alirocumab on preventing PCI-related MI or major periprocedural myocardial injury in patients with CHD undergoing elective PCI remains uncertain. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Alirocumab effect on Preventing Periprocedural ischaemic Events in coronary heart diseAse patients undergoing coronary StEnting trial is a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial aiming to determine whether alirocumab could reduce the incidence of type 4a MI or major periprocedural myocardial injury in patients with CHD undergoing elective PCI. In total, 422 non-AMI CHD patients planned to undergo elective PCI will be randomly assigned to receive standard pharmacotherapy of CHD (control group) or additional use of subcutaneous alirocumab 75 mg 1 day before procedure (alirocumab group). The primary outcome is type 4a MI or major periprocedural myocardial injury defined as high-sensitivity cardiac troponin elevating above 5×99 th percentile upper reference limit in 48 hours after PCI. Patients will continue receiving standard pharmacotherapy or additional biweekly subcutaneous alirocumab 75 mg for 3 months according to the initial randomisation group. We will follow up for 3 months and record all the major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Incidence of PCI-related MI or major periprocedural myocardial injury, and MACE in 3 months after PCI will be compared between control group and alirocumab group. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Medical Ethics Committee of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University with approval number: (2022)02-140-01. The results of this study will be reported through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ChiCTR2200063191.

GP73 enhances the ox-LDL-induced inflammatory response in THP-1 derived macrophages via affecting NLRP3 inflammasome signaling.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease with its molecular basis incompletely understood. Here, we determined whether the Golgi phosphoprotein 73 (GP73), a novel protein highly related to inflammation and disrupted lipid metabolism, was involved in the development of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Public microarray databases of human vascular samples were analyzed for expression patterns. Apolipoprotein-E-gene-deficient (ApoE-/-) mice (8-week-old) were randomly assigned to either a chow diet group or a high-fat diet group. The levels of serum GP73, lipid profiles and key inflammatory cytokines were determined by ELISA. The aortic root plaque was isolated and used for by Oil Red O staining. PMA-differentiated THP-1 macrophages were transfected with GP73 small interfering RNA (siRNA) or infected with adenovirus expressing GP73, and then stimulated with oxidized low density lipoprotein (ox-LDL). The expressions of pro-inflammatory cytokines and signal pathway key targets were determined by ELISA kit and Western blot respectively. In addition, ichloro-dihydro-fluorescein diacetate (DCFH-DA) was used to measure the intracellular ROS levels. RESULTS: The expressions of GP73 and NLRP3 were substantially upregulated in human atherosclerotic lesions. There were significant linear correlations between GP73 and inflammatory cytokines expressions. High-fat diet-induced atherosclerosis and increased levels of plasma inflammatory mediators (IL-1ß, IL-18, and TNF-α) were observed in ApoE-/- mice. Besides, the expressions of GP73 in the aorta and serum were significantly upregulated and positively correlated with the NLRP3 expression. In the THP-1 derived macrophages, ox-LDL treatment upregulated the expressions of GP73 and NLRP3 proteins and activated the inflammatory responses in a concentration-dependent and time-dependent manner. Silencing of GP73 attenuated the inflammatory response and rescued the decreased migration induced by ox-LDL, inhibiting the NLRP3 inflammasome signaling and the ROS and p-NF-κB activation. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that GP73 promoted the ox-LDL-induced inflammation in macrophages by affecting the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling, and may play a role in atherosclerosis.

Body weight time in target range and cardiovascular outcomes in adults with overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: Prescription of weight loss to individuals is often characterized by weight fluctuations. However, current body weight management metrics may have difficulty characterizing the changes in body weight over time. We aim to characterize the long-term changes using body weight time in target range (TTR) and test its independent association with cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 4468 adults from the Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) trial. Body weight TTR was defined as the percentage of time during which body weight was within the Look AHEAD weight loss goal range. The associations of body weight TTR with cardiovascular outcomes were analysed using multivariable Cox modelling and restricted cubic spline function. Among the participants (mean age 58.9 years, 58.5% women, 66.5% White), there were 721 incident primary outcomes [cumulative incidence: 17.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 16.3-18.8%] during a median of 9.5 years of follow-up. Each 1 SD increase in body weight TTR was significantly associated with a decreased risk of the primary outcome (hazard ratio: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.75-0.94) after adjusting for mean and variability of body weight and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Further analyses using restricted cubic spline indicated the inverse association between body weight TTR and the primary outcome in a dose-dependent manner. Similar associations remained significant among the participants with lower baseline or mean body weight. CONCLUSION: In adults with overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes, higher body weight TTR was independently associated with lower risks of cardiovascular adverse events in a dose-response manner.

We used time in target range (TTR) to characterize the long-term changes in body weight among 4468 adults with overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes and assessed the associations of body weight TTR with cardiovascular outcomes.Participants with TTR of >50­100% achieved and maintained the target of body weight loss during the 10 years of follow-up.Higher body weight TTR was independently associated with lower risks of cardiovascular adverse events in a dose­response manner.

Visceral adiposity index and the risk of heart failure, late-life cardiac structure, and function in ARIC study.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that obesity is associated with the risk of heart failure (HF). However, the data about relationship between visceral fat and the risk of HF are limited. AIMS: We aim to evaluate the association between visceral obesity assessed by visceral adiposity index (VAI) and incident HF and left ventricular (LV) structure and function in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. METHODS: We included 12 161 participants (aged 54.1 ± 5.8 years) free of history of HF and coronary heart disease at baseline (1987-89) in ARIC study. We used multivariable Cox hazard regression models to assess the association between the VAI and incident HF. We further explored the effects of the VAI on LV geometry and function among 4817 participants with echocardiographic data using multivariable linear regression analysis and multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 22.5 years, a total of 1904 (15.7%) participants developed HF. After adjustment for traditional HF risk factors, 1 unit increase in the baseline VAI was associated with an 8% higher risk of incident HF [hazard ratio (HR): 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.11]. Results were similar when participants were categorized by VAI tertiles. Compared with participants in the lowest tertile of VAI, those in the second tertile and third tertile had a greater risk of incident HF [HR (95% CI): 1.19 (1.05-1.34) and 1.42 (1.26-1.61), respectively]. For the analyses of the HF subtypes, the higher VAI was only associated with the risk of HF with preserved ejection fraction, not with HF with reduced ejection fraction. In addition, the greater VAI was associated with worse LV diastolic function and abnormal LV geometry including concentric remodelling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy. CONCLUSION: This study shows that higher VAI was independently associated with the increased risk of incident HF and abnormal LV geometry and LV diastolic dysfunction.

We investigated the relationship between visceral adiposity index (VAI) and incident heart failure (HF) in 12 161 participants and further evaluated the possible effect of the VAI on late-life left ventricular (LV) structure and function in 4817 participants who underwent echocardiography examination at Visit 5 in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.Our study found that VAI, a simple alternative indicator of visceral obesity, was positively associated with the risk of HF.Our results shown that VAI was significantly associated with abnormal LV geometry and worse LV diastolic function in late life.

Predictive performance of established cardiovascular risk scores in the prediabetic population: external validation using the UK Biobank data set.

AIMS: Prediabetes is a highly heterogenous metabolic state with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Current guidelines raised the necessity of CVD risk scoring for prediabetes without clear recommendations. Thus, this study aimed to systematically assess the performance of 11 models, including five general population-based and six diabetes-specific CVD risk scores, in prediabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort of individuals aged 40-69 years with prediabetes (HbA1c ≥ 5.7 and <6.5%) and without baseline CVD or known diabetes was identified from the UK Biobank, which was used to validate 11 prediction models for estimating 10- or 5-year risk of CVD. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated by Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plots, respectively. We further performed decision curve analyses to assess the clinical usefulness.Overall, 56 831 prediabetic individuals were included, of which 4303 incident CVD events occurred within a median follow-up of 8.9 years. All the 11 risk scores assessed had modest C-statistics for discrimination ranging from 0.647 to 0.680 in prediabetes. Scores developed in the general population did not outperform those diabetes-specific models (C-statistics, 0.647-0.675 vs. 0.647-0.680), while the PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation developed for Type 2 diabetes performed best [0.680 (95% confidence interval, 0.672-0.689)]. The calibration plots suggested overall poor calibration except that the PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation calibrated well after recalibration. The decision curves generally indicated moderate clinical usefulness of each model, especially worse within high threshold probabilities. CONCLUSION: Neither risk stratification schemes for the general population nor those specific for Type 2 diabetes performed well in the prediabetic population. The PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation could be a substitute in the absence of better alternatives, rather than the general population-based scores. More precise and targeted risk assessment tools for this population remain to be established.

Targeting the Efficacy of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment in Hypertensive Patients　- An Exploratory Analysis of SPRINT.

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive patients show highly heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) and cardiovascular prognosis, and not all benefit from intensive blood pressure treatment.Methods and Results: We used the causal forest model to identify potential HTEs of patients in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). Cox regression was performed to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and to compare the effects of intensive treatment among groups. The model revealed 3 representative covariates and patients were partitioned into 4 subgroups: Group 1 (baseline body mass index [BMI] ≤28.32 kg/m2and estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤69.53 mL/min/1.73 m2); Group 2 (baseline BMI ≤28.32 kg/m2and eGFR >69.53 mL/min/1.73 m2); Group 3 (baseline BMI >28.32 kg/m2and 10-year CVD risk ≤15.8%); Group 4 (baseline BMI >28.32 kg/m2and 10-year CVD risk >15.8%). Intensive treatment was shown to be beneficial only in Group 2 (HR 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.82; P=0.004) and Group 4 (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52-0.91; P=0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Intensive treatment was effective for patients with high BMI and 10-year CVD risk, or low BMI and normal eGFR, but not for those with low BMI and eGFR, or high BMI and low 10-year CVD risk. Our study could facilitate the categorization of hypertensive patients, ensuring individualized therapy.

Effect of intensive lifestyle intervention on the association between weight variability and major adverse cardiovascular events in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: Weight variability is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic patients. However, whether the guideline-recommended intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) will affect this association in overweight or obese adults with diabetes is not well established. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 3,859 participants from the Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial, the associations of 4 year weight variability measured by variability independent of the mean (VIM) with major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and secondary outcomes in ILI and diabetes support & education (DSE) arm were evaluated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 255 (12.9%) participants in the ILI arm and 247 (13.2%) participants in the DSE arm developed MACE. Participants with the highest quartile of weight variability (VIM Q4) experienced a 2.23-fold higher risk of MACE compared with the lowest quartile (VIM Q1) in the DSE arm (hazard ratio [HR] 2.23; 95% CI 1.51-3.30). Compared with the lowest weight variability (VIM Q1), participants with the highest weight variability (VIM Q4) were associated with higher risks of secondary cardiovascular composite outcome (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.20-2.95), all-cause mortality (HR 3.19; 95% CI 1.75-5.82), and myocardial infarction (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.12-3.37) in the DSE arm. CONCLUSIONS: Among the overweight or obese individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, rising weight variability was independently associated with increased MACE risks in the DSE arm. Therefore, a guideline-recommended ILI strategy for weight loss should be adopted to improve cardiovascular outcomes without worrying about the effect of weight fluctuations.

Risk score for coronary heart disease (CHD-RISK) and hemodynamically significant aortic valve stenosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Multiple studies have investigated the association between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and aortic valve stenosis (AS). However, limited studies have explored the relationship between CHD risk scores and AS. Whether incident risk scores for coronary heart disease (CHD-RISK) may be applied to predict AS remains unclear. We aim to investigate the association between AS and CHD-RISK. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 4791 participants (age 54.6 ± 5.0 yrs, 58.7% women, 81% were of European origin), and CHD-RISK was estimated in 1990-1992. The participants were then followed-up until December 31, 2013. The primary outcome was hemodynamic significant AS identified by Doppler echocardiography in 2011-2013. We used multivariate-logistic regression models to assess the associations between CHD-RISK and AS. During follow-up, 963 (20.1%) cases of AS were identified. Per-standard deviation (6%) increase in CHD-RISK was associated with OR 95% Cl [1.194, 95% CI 1.068 to 1.335, p = 0.002] risk of AS in the fully adjusted models. Results were similar when stratified by quintiles of CHD-RISK, using the lowest quintiles <0.94% of CHD-RISK as the reference, 0.94%-2.26%, 2.26%-4.83%, 4.83%-9.21%, and >9.21% were; 1.33 (95% CI, 0.99-1.78, p = 0.055), 1.64 (95% CI, 1.17-2.29, p = 0.004), 2.23 (95% CI, 1.49-3.32, p = <0.001), 2.66 (95% CI, 1.65-4.31, p = <0.001) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CHD-RISK was associated with AS. CHD-RISK and AS were high in females, age ≥55 yrs, current smokers, and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2. This investigation suggests CHD-RISK may be applied to forecast AS risk similar to CHD. Future studies are required to detect, manage, and establish better treatment strategies in these high-risk subgroups.

Ulcerative colitis increases risk of hypertension in a UK biobank cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is not only a chronic inflammatory disorder of the gastrointestinal tract but also accompanied by systemic inflammation. The onset of hypertension is closely related to systemic inflammation. However, the relationship between IBD and hypertension has not been investigated. We aimed to investigate the potential association between IBD and the incidence of hypertension. METHOD: We retrieved IBD onset and the incidence of hypertension from a public database UK Biobank. The association between the onset of IBD and subsequent incidence of hypertension was analyzed using a multivariate Cox regression analysis, and propensity score matching was performed for sensitivity analysis. RESULT: Of a total of 281,064 participants included in the study, 2376 (0.8%) were diagnosed with IBD at baseline, and 20,129 (7.2%) in the whole cohort developed hypertension with a median follow-up duration of 8.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7.3-8.8 years). Patients with IBD had a higher cumulative risk of hypertension compared with general population (10.9% in ulcerative colitis [UC], 7.7% in Crohn's disease [CD], and 9.3% in IBD unclassified [IBD-U] vs. 7.1% in non-IBD, p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified that UC, rather than CD or IBD-U, was independently associated with subsequent occurrence of hypertension (HR 1.30, 95% CI: 1.11-1.52, p = 0.001). In propensity matching analysis, UC also showed its robustness as a risk factor for the prediction of hypertension (HR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.21-2.03, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In IBD patients, UC rather than CD is associated with a higher risk for the incidence of hypertension compared with general population. Close monitoring of hypertension might be required in clinical practice.

Targeting efficacy of spironolactone in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the TOPCAT study.

AIMS: We aimed to explore the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) for spironolactone treatment in patients with Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and examine the efficacy and safety of spironolactone medication, ensuring a better individualized therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used the causal forest algorithm to discover the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from patients in the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial. Cox regressions were performed to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of spironolactone medication for cardiovascular death and drug discontinuation in each group. The causal forest model revealed three representative covariates and participants were partitioned into four subgroups which were Group 1 (baseline BMI ≤ 31.71 kg/m2 and baseline ALP ≤ 80 U/L, n = 759); Group 2 (BMI ≤ 31.71 kg/m2 and ALP > 80 U/L, n = 1088); Group 3 (BMI > 31.71 kg/m2 , and WBC ≤ 6.6 cells/µL, n = 633); Group 4 (BMI > 31.71 kg/m2 and WBC > 6.6 cells/µL, n = 832), respectively. In the four subgroups, spironolactone therapy reduced the risk of cardiovascular death in high-risk group (Group 4) with both high BMI and WBC count (HR: 0.76; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; P = 0.045) but increased the risk in low-risk group (Group 1) with both low BMI and ALP (HR: 1.45; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.07; P = 0.041; P for interaction = 0.020) but showed similar risk of drug discontinuation (P for interaction = 0.498). CONCLUSION: Our study manifested the HTEs of spironolactone in patients with HFpEF. Spironolactone treatment in HFpEF patients is feasible and effective in patients with high BMI and WBC while harmful in patients with low BMI and ALP. Machine learning model could be meaningful for improved categorization of patients with HFpEF, ensuring a better individualized therapy in the clinical setting.

Intensity of hypertensive exposure in young adulthood and subclinical atherosclerosis in middle age: Evidence from the CARDIA study.

Background: Chronically high blood pressure (HBP) is a known risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. We measured the intensity of hypertensive exposure in young adults and calculated its prognostic significance for subclinical atherosclerosis in middle age. Methods: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study enrolled 5,115 healthy black and white Americans who were 18-30 years old at baseline (1985-1986). The intensity of hypertensive exposure was calculated as the area under the curve (mm Hg × years) from baseline to year 15. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) was identified at years 15, 20, and 25, and intima-media thickness (IMT) was identified at year 20. Results: At baseline, the mean age was 40.1 years; 55.1% of participants were women, and 46.5% were black. After adjustment, cumulative systolic BP (SBP) was positively associated with CAC [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.23 (1.14, 1.32)] and IMT [ß = 0.022 (0.017, 0.028)]. For CAC, the C-statistic for cumulative SBP was 0.643 (0.619, 0.667); compared to baseline SBP, the net reclassification index (NRI) of cumulative SBP was 0.180 (0.115, 0.256) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) was 0.023 (0.012, 0.036). For IMT, the C-statistic for cumulative SBP was 0.674 (0.643, 0.705), the NRI was 0.220 (0.138, 0.305), and the IDI was 0.008 (0.004, 0.0012). Conclusion: Greater intensity of hypertensive exposure in early adulthood is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in middle age and provides better prognostic value than baseline BP for early cardiovascular risk.