Clinical care advice for monitoring of islet autoantibody positive individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease that involves the development of autoantibodies against pancreatic islet beta-cell antigens, preceding clinical diagnosis by a period of preclinical disease activity. As screening activity to identify autoantibody-positive individuals increases, a rise in presymptomatic type 1 diabetes individuals seeking medical attention is expected. Current guidance on how to monitor these individuals in a safe but minimally invasive way is limited. This article aims to provide clinical guidance for monitoring individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes to reduce the risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis. METHODS: Expert consensus was obtained from members of the Fr1da, GPPAD, and INNODIA consortia, three European diabetes research groups. The guidance covers both specialist and primary care follow-up strategies. RESULTS: The guidance outlines recommended monitoring approaches based on age, disease stage and clinical setting. Individuals with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes are best followed up in specialist care. For stage 1, biannual assessments of random plasma glucose and HbA1c are suggested for children, while annual assessments are recommended for adolescents and adults. For stage 2, 3-monthly clinic visits with additional home monitoring are advised. The value of repeat OGTT in stage 1 and the use of continuous glucose monitoring in stage 2 are discussed. Primary care is encouraged to monitor individuals who decline specialist care, following the guidance presented. CONCLUSIONS: As type 1 diabetes screening programs become more prevalent, effective monitoring strategies are essential to mitigate the risk of complications such as DKA. This guidance serves as a valuable resource for clinicians, providing practical recommendations tailored to an individual's age and disease stage, both within specialist and primary care settings.

Early-childhood body mass index and its association with the COVID-19 pandemic, containment measures and islet autoimmunity in children with increased risk for type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine whether BMI in early childhood was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, and whether it was associated with the risk for islet autoimmunity. METHODS: Between February 2018 and May 2023, data on BMI and islet autoimmunity were collected from 1050 children enrolled in the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, aged from 4.0 months to 5.5 years of age. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as 18 March 2020, and a stringency index was used to assess the stringency of containment measures. Islet autoimmunity was defined as either the development of persistent confirmed multiple islet autoantibodies, or the development of one or more islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Multivariate linear mixed-effect, linear and logistic regression methods were applied to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency index on early-childhood BMI measurements (BMI as a time-varying variable, BMI at 9 months of age and overweight risk at 9 months of age), and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of BMI measurements on islet autoimmunity risk. RESULTS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased time-varying BMI (ß = 0.39; 95% CI 0.30, 0.47) and overweight risk at 9 months (ß = 0.44; 95% CI 0.03, 0.84). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a higher stringency index was positively associated with time-varying BMI (ß = 0.02; 95% CI 0.00, 0.04 per 10 units increase), BMI at 9 months (ß = 0.13; 95% CI 0.01, 0.25) and overweight risk at 9 months (ß = 0.23; 95% CI 0.03, 0.43). A higher age-corrected BMI and overweight risk at 9 months were associated with increased risk for developing islet autoimmunity up to 5.5 years of age (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32 and HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00, 2.82, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Early-childhood BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was influenced by the level of restrictions during the pandemic. Controlling for the COVID-19 pandemic, elevated BMI during early childhood was associated with increased risk for childhood islet autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes.

Epigenome-Wide Meta-analysis Reveals Associations Between Dietary Glycemic Index and Glycemic Load and DNA Methylation in Children and Adolescents of Different Body Sizes.

OBJECTIVE: Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are associated with cardiometabolic health in children and adolescents, with potential distinct effects in people with increased BMI. DNA methylation (DNAm) may mediate these effects. Thus, we conducted meta-analyses of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) between dietary GI and GL and blood DNAm of children and adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We calculated dietary GI and GL and performed EWAS in children and adolescents (age range: 4.5-17 years) from six cohorts (N = 1,187). We performed stratified analyses of participants with normal weight (n = 801) or overweight or obesity (n = 386). We performed look-ups for the identified cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites (false discovery rate [FDR] <0.05) with tissue-specific gene expression of 832 blood and 223 subcutaneous adipose tissue samples from children and adolescents. RESULTS: Dietary GL was positively associated with DNAm of cg20274553 (FDR <0.05), annotated to WDR27. Several CpGs were identified in the normal-weight (GI: 85; GL: 17) and overweight or obese (GI: 136; GL: 298; FDR <0.05) strata, and none overlapped between strata. In participants with overweight or obesity, identified CpGs were related to RNA expression of genes associated with impaired metabolism (e.g., FRAT1, CSF3). CONCLUSIONS: We identified 537 associations between dietary GI and GL and blood DNAm, mainly in children and adolescents with overweight or obesity. High-GI and/or -GL diets may influence epigenetic gene regulation and thereby promote metabolic derangements in young people with increased BMI.

Characterisation and clinical outcomes in children and adolescents with diabetes according to newly defined subgroups: a cohort study from the DPV registry.

Background: Personalised therapy has emerged as a possibly more efficient approach taking disease heterogeneity into account. The aim of this study was to determine whether recently described subgroups of childhood diabetes have prognostic association with diabetes-specific complications and, therefore, might be a basis for personalised therapies. Methods: We applied a previously developed subgroup classification to pediatric patients (diabetes onset <18 years) from the prospective Diabetes Patient Follow-up (DPV) registry with documented data between January 1, 2000 and March 31, 2022, from diabetes centers in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Luxembourg. The classification required information on islet autoantibody status, age, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and body-mass index (BMI-SDS) at disease manifestation, as well as follow up data after 2 and after 4 years, which was available in 22,719 patients. Patients without documented data on these parameters were excluded from the analysis. The cumulative risk of severe hypoglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), retinopathy, and nephropathy were analysed by Kaplan-Meier analyses over a median follow-up of 6.8 years (IQR 4.8-9.6). Findings: Patients were classified into 10 subgroups (P1-P7 islet autoantibody-positive, n = 19,811; N1-N3 islet autoantibody-negative, n = 2908). The groups varied markedly with respect to specific acute and chronic complications. Severe hypoglycemia was a characteristic feature in young islet autoantibody-positive subgroups P1, P3, P4 (10-year risk 46, 46 and 47%) and the islet autoantibody-negative groups N1, N2 (43 and 46%). Nephropathy was identified in patient groups P2 and P5 (10-year risk 16%), which had features of moderate disease such as preserved C-peptide, low HbA1c, and very low frequency of DKA at diabetes onset. Group P7, which was defined by a high BMI, was associated with poor metabolic control, DKA, and retinopathy. In contrast, islet autoantibody-negative patients with high BMI (N3) had a low risk for all four complications. Interpretation: Subgrouping of childhood diabetes at diabetes onset provided prognostic value for the development of acute and chronic diabetes-specific complications. Funding: The DPV initiative is supported by The German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the German Center for Diabetes Research, the diabetes surveillance of the Robert Koch Institute, the German Diabetes Association (DDG) and INNODIA.

Dietary Intake and Body Mass Index Influence the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity in Genetically At-Risk Children: A Mediation Analysis Using the TEDDY Cohort.

Background/Objective: Growth and obesity have been associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity (IA) and progression to type 1 diabetes. We aimed to estimate the effect of energy-yielding macronutrient intake on the development of IA through BMI. Research Design and Methods: Genetically at-risk children (n = 5,084) in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the USA, who were autoantibody negative at 2 years of age, were followed to the age of 8 years, with anthropometric measurements and 3-day food records collected biannually. Of these, 495 (9.7%) children developed IA. Mediation analysis for time-varying covariates (BMI z-score) and exposure (energy intake) was conducted. Cox proportional hazard method was used in sensitivity analysis. Results: We found an indirect effect of total energy intake (estimates: indirect effect 0.13 [0.05, 0.21]) and energy from protein (estimates: indirect effect 0.06 [0.02, 0.11]), fat (estimates: indirect effect 0.03 [0.01, 0.05]), and carbohydrates (estimates: indirect effect 0.02 [0.00, 0.04]) (kcal/day) on the development of IA. A direct effect was found for protein, expressed both as kcal/day (estimates: direct effect 1.09 [0.35, 1.56]) and energy percentage (estimates: direct effect 72.8 [3.0, 98.0]) and the development of GAD autoantibodies (GADA). In the sensitivity analysis, energy from protein (kcal/day) was associated with increased risk for GADA, hazard ratio 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.53), p = 0.042. Conclusions: This study confirms that higher total energy intake is associated with higher BMI, which leads to higher risk of the development of IA. A diet with larger proportion of energy from protein has a direct effect on the development of GADA.

HLA Genotype and Probiotics Modify the Association Between Timing of Solid Food Introduction and Islet Autoimmunity in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To study the interaction among HLA genotype, early probiotic exposure, and timing of complementary foods in relation to risk of islet autoimmunity (IA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study prospectively follows 8,676 children with increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusting for potential confounders to study early feeding and the risk of IA in a sample of 7,770 children. RESULTS: Any solid food introduced early (<6 months) was associated with increased risk of IA if the child had the HLA DR3/4 genotype and no probiotic exposure during the 1st year of life. Rice introduced at 4-5.9 months compared with later in the U.S. was associated with an increased risk of IA. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of solid food introduction, including rice, may be associated with IA in children with the HLA DR3/4 genotype not exposed to probiotics. The microbiome composition under these exposure combinations requires further study.

Gastrointestinal Infections Modulate the Risk for Insulin Autoantibodies as the First-Appearing Autoantibody in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate gastrointestinal infection episodes (GIEs) in relation to the appearance of islet autoantibodies in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: GIEs on risk of autoantibodies against either insulin (IAA) or GAD (GADA) as the first-appearing autoantibody were assessed in a 10-year follow-up of 7,867 children. Stool virome was characterized in a nested case-control study. RESULTS: GIE reports (odds ratio [OR] 2.17 [95% CI 1.39-3.39]) as well as Norwalk viruses found in stool (OR 5.69 [1.36-23.7]) at <1 year of age were associated with an increased IAA risk at 2-4 years of age. GIEs reported at age 1 to <2 years correlated with a lower risk of IAA up to 10 years of age (OR 0.48 [0.35-0.68]). GIE reports at any other age were associated with an increase in IAA risk (OR 2.04 for IAA when GIE was observed 12-23 months prior [1.41-2.96]). Impacts on GADA risk were limited to GIEs <6 months prior to autoantibody development in children <4 years of age (OR 2.16 [1.54-3.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Bidirectional associations were observed. GIEs were associated with increased IAA risk when reported before 1 year of age or 12-23 months prior to IAA. Norwalk virus was identified as one possible candidate factor. GIEs reported during the 2nd year of life were associated with a decreased IAA risk.

Children diagnosed with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes through public health screening have milder diabetes at clinical manifestation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine whether disease severity was reduced at onset of clinical (stage 3) type 1 diabetes in children previously diagnosed with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in a population-based screening programme for islet autoantibodies. METHODS: Clinical data obtained at diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes were evaluated in 128 children previously diagnosed with presymptomatic early-stage type 1 diabetes between 2015 and 2022 in the Fr1da study and compared with data from 736 children diagnosed with incident type 1 diabetes between 2009 and 2018 at a similar age in the DiMelli study without prior screening. RESULTS: At the diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes, children with a prior early-stage diagnosis had lower median HbA1c (51 mmol/mol vs 91 mmol/mol [6.8% vs 10.5%], p<0.001), lower median fasting glucose (5.3 mmol/l vs 7.2 mmol/l, p<0.05) and higher median fasting C-peptide (0.21 nmol/l vs 0.10 nmol/l, p<0.001) compared with children without previous early-stage diagnosis. Fewer participants with prior early-stage diagnosis had ketonuria (22.2% vs 78.4%, p<0.001) or required insulin treatment (72.3% vs 98.1%, p<0.05) and only 2.5% presented with diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of stage 3 type 1 diabetes. Outcomes in children with a prior early-stage diagnosis were not associated with a family history of type 1 diabetes or diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic. A milder clinical presentation was observed in children who participated in education and monitoring after early-stage diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diagnosis of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in children followed by education and monitoring improved clinical presentation at the onset of stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

Plasma protein biomarkers predict the development of persistent autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes 6 months prior to the onset of autoimmunity.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from autoimmune destruction of ß cells. Insufficient availability of biomarkers represents a significant gap in understanding the disease cause and progression. We conduct blinded, two-phase case-control plasma proteomics on the TEDDY study to identify biomarkers predictive of T1D development. Untargeted proteomics of 2,252 samples from 184 individuals identify 376 regulated proteins, showing alteration of complement, inflammatory signaling, and metabolic proteins even prior to autoimmunity onset. Extracellular matrix and antigen presentation proteins are differentially regulated in individuals who progress to T1D vs. those that remain in autoimmunity. Targeted proteomics measurements of 167 proteins in 6,426 samples from 990 individuals validate 83 biomarkers. A machine learning analysis predicts if individuals would remain in autoimmunity or develop T1D 6 months before autoantibody appearance, with areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.871 and 0.918, respectively. Our study identifies and validates biomarkers, highlighting pathways affected during T1D development.

Possible heterogeneity of initial pancreatic islet beta-cell autoimmunity heralding type 1 diabetes.

The etiology of type 1 diabetes (T1D) foreshadows the pancreatic islet beta-cell autoimmune pathogenesis that heralds the clinical onset of T1D. Standardized and harmonized tests of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A), and ZnT8 transporter (ZnT8A) allowed children to be followed from birth until the appearance of a first islet autoantibody. In the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, a multicenter (Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States) observational study, children were identified at birth for the T1D high-risk HLA haploid genotypes DQ2/DQ8, DQ2/DQ2, DQ8/DQ8, and DQ4/DQ8. The TEDDY study was preceded by smaller studies in Finland, Germany, Colorado, Washington, and Sweden. The aims were to follow children at increased genetic risk to identify environmental factors that trigger the first-appearing autoantibody (etiology) and progress to T1D (pathogenesis). The larger TEDDY study found that the incidence rate of the first-appearing autoantibody was split into two patterns. IAA first peaked already during the first year of life and tapered off by 3-4 years of age. GADA first appeared by 2-3 years of age to reach a plateau by about 4 years. Prior to the first-appearing autoantibody, genetic variants were either common or unique to either pattern. A split was also observed in whole blood transcriptomics, metabolomics, dietary factors, and exposures such as gestational life events and early infections associated with prolonged shedding of virus. An innate immune reaction prior to the adaptive response cannot be excluded. Clarifying the mechanisms by which autoimmunity is triggered to either insulin or GAD65 is key to uncovering the etiology of autoimmune T1D.

Physical Activity and the Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes in 5- to 15-Year-Old Children Followed in the TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated physical activity and its association with the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in genetically at-risk children aged 5-15 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: As part of the longitudinal Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, annual assessment of activity using accelerometry was conducted from age 5 years. Time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity per day and the appearance of one or several autoantibodies and progression to type 1 diabetes in three risk groups: 1) 3,869 islet autoantibody (IA)-negative children, of whom 157 became single IA positive; 2) 302 single IA-positive children, of whom 73 became multiple IA positive; and 3) 294 multiple IA-positive children, of whom 148 developed type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: No significant association was found in risk group 1 or risk group 2. A significant association was seen in risk group 3 (hazard ratio 0.920 [95% CI 0.856, 0.988] per 10-min increase; P = 0.021), particularly when glutamate decarboxylase autoantibody was the first autoantibody (hazard ratio 0.883 [95% CI 0.783, 0.996] per 10-min increase; P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: More daily minutes spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of progression to type 1 diabetes in children aged 5-15 years who had developed multiple IAs.

Type 1 Diabetes Incidence and Risk in Children With a Diagnosis of COVID-19.

This study used a population-based individual patient data set that included diagnoses of COVID-19 to determine whether there was a temporal association between COVID-19 and type 1 diabetes in children.

Gluten-free diet adherence in children with screening-detected celiac disease using a prospective birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease has an increasing incidence worldwide and is treated with lifelong adherence to a gluten-free diet. We aimed to describe gluten-free diet adherence rates in children with screening-identified celiac disease, determine adherence-related factors, and compare adherence to food records in a multinational prospective birth cohort study. METHODS: Children in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study with celiac disease were included. Subjects had at least annual measurement of adherence (parent-report) and completed 3-day food records. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, Kruskal-Wallis tests and multivariable logistic and linear regression were employed. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety (73%) and 199 (67%) of subjects were always adherent to a gluten-free diet at 2 and 5 years post celiac disease diagnosis respectively. The percentage of children with variable adherence increased from 1% at 2 years to 15% at 5 years. Children with a first-degree relative with celiac disease were more likely to be adherent to the gluten-free diet. Gluten intake on food records could not differentiate adherent from nonadherent subjects. Adherent children from the United States had more gluten intake based on food records than European children (P < .001 and P = .007 at 2 and 5 years respectively). CONCLUSION: Approximately three-quarters of children with screening-identified celiac disease remain strictly adherent to a gluten-free diet over time. There are no identifiable features associated with adherence aside from having a first-degree relative with celiac disease. Despite good parent-reported adherence, children from the United States have more gluten intake when assessed by food records. Studies on markers of gluten-free diet adherence, sources of gluten exposure (particularly in the United States), and effects of adherence on mucosal healing are needed.

Islet autoantibody screening in at-risk adolescents to predict type 1 diabetes until young adulthood: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening for islet autoantibodies in children and adolescents identifies individuals who will later develop type 1 diabetes, allowing patient and family education to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis at onset and to enable consideration of preventive therapies. We aimed to assess whether islet autoantibody screening is effective for predicting type 1 diabetes in adolescents aged 10-18 years with an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Data were harmonised from prospective studies from Finland (the Diabetes Prediction and Prevention study), Germany (the BABYDIAB study), and the USA (Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young and the Diabetes Evaluation in Washington study). Autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, and insulinoma-associated protein 2 were measured at each follow-up visit. Children who were lost to follow-up or diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before 10 years of age were excluded. Inverse probability censoring weighting was used to include data from remaining participants. Sensitivity and the positive predictive value of these autoantibodies, tested at one or two ages, to predict type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years were the main outcomes. FINDINGS: Of 20 303 children with an increased type 1 diabetes risk, 8682 were included for the analysis with inverse probability censoring weighting. 1890 were followed up to 18 years of age or developed type 1 diabetes between the ages of 10 years and 18 years, and their median follow-up was 18·3 years (IQR 14·5-20·3). 442 (23·4%) of 1890 adolescents were positive for at least one islet autoantibody, and 262 (13·9%) developed type 1 diabetes. Time from seroconversion to diabetes diagnosis increased by 0·64 years (95% CI 0·34-0·95) for each 1-year increment of diagnosis age (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0·88, 95% CI 0·50-0·97, p=0·0020). The median interval between the last prediagnostic sample and diagnosis was 0·3 years (IQR 0·1-1·3) in the 227 participants who were autoantibody positive and 6·8 years (1·6-9·9) for the 35 who were autoantibody negative. Single screening at the age of 10 years was 90% (95% CI 86-95) sensitive, with a positive predictive value of 66% (60-72) for clinical diabetes. Screening at two ages (10 years and 14 years) increased sensitivity to 93% (95% CI 89-97) but lowered the positive predictive value to 55% (49-60). INTERPRETATION: Screening of adolescents at risk for type 1 diabetes only once at 10 years of age for islet autoantibodies was highly effective to detect type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years, which in turn could enable prevention of diabetic ketoacidosis and participation in secondary prevention trials. FUNDING: JDRF International.

Incidence of Pediatric Celiac Disease Varies by Region.

INTRODUCTION: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study follows an HLA risk selected birth cohort for celiac disease (CD) development using a uniform protocol. Children under investigation come from 6 different regions within Europe and the United States. Our aim was to identify regional differences in CD autoimmunity and CD cumulative incidence for children born between 2004 and 2010. METHODS: Children (n = 6,628) with DQ2.5 and/or DQ8.1 were enrolled prospectively from birth in Georgia, Washington, Colorado, Finland, Germany, and Sweden. Children underwent periodic study screening for tissue transglutaminase antibodies and then CD evaluation per clinical care. Population-specific estimates were calculated by weighting the study-specific cumulative incidence with the population-specific haplogenotype frequencies obtained from large stem cell registries from each site. RESULTS: Individual haplogenotype risks for CD autoimmunity and CD varied by region and affected the cumulative incidence within that region. The CD incidence by age 10 years was highest in Swedish children at 3%. Within the United States, the incidence by age 10 years in Colorado was 2.4%. In the model adjusted for HLA, sex, and family history, Colorado children had a 2.5-fold higher risk of CD compared to Washington. Likewise, Swedish children had a 1.4-fold and 1.8-fold higher risk of CD compared with those in Finland and Germany, respectively. DISCUSSION: There is high regional variability in cumulative incidence of CD, which suggests differential environmental, genetic, and epigenetic influences even within the United States. The overall high incidence warrants a low threshold for screening and further research on region-specific CD triggers.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Preschool and School-Age Children­Population Screening Findings From January 2020 to June 2022

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is ongoing in Germany. Children and adolescents are increasingly being infected, and many cases presumably remain undetected and unreported. Sero-epidemiological studies can help estimate the true number of infections. METHODS: From January 2020 to June 2022, 59 786 persons aged 1-17 years were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies as part of a screening program for presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in the German federal state of Bavaria (the Fr1da study). RESULTS: In June 2022, the seroprevalence in the overall population was 73.5%. The seroprevalence was significantly higher in school-age children (from 5 to 10 years of age) than in preschool children (ages 1-4): 84.4% vs. 66.6%, p <0.001. In contrast, in November 2021, before the appearance of the omicron variant, the overall seroprevalence was 14.7% (16.2% of school-age children, 13.0% of preschool children, p = 0.06). In the overall collective, seroprevalence increased fivefold from the fall of 2021 to June 2022 (by a factor of 5.2 in school-age children and 5.1 in preschool children). Similar seroprevalences, with smaller case numbers, were observed in June 2022 in the corresponding Fr1da studies in Saxony and Northern Germany: 87.8% and 76.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Monthly case counts reveal a substantial rise in SARS-CoV-2-infections among children and adolescents from late 2021 to mid-2022. The high percentage of preschool and school-age children who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, in a population that has low vaccination coverage, should be taken into account in the development of health policies.

Elevations in blood glucose before and after the appearance of islet autoantibodies in children.

The etiology of type 1 diabetes has polygenic and environmental determinants that lead to autoimmune responses against pancreatic ß cells and promote ß cell death. The autoimmunity is considered silent without metabolic consequences until late preclinical stages,and it remains unknown how early in the disease process the pancreatic ß cell is compromised. To address this, we investigated preprandial nonfasting and postprandial blood glucose concentrations and islet autoantibody development in 1,050 children with high genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. Pre- and postprandial blood glucose decreased between 4 and 18 months of age and gradually increased until the final measurements at 3.6 years of age. Determinants of blood glucose trajectories in the first year of life included sex, body mass index, glucose-related genetic risk scores, and the type 1 diabetes-susceptible INS gene. Children who developed islet autoantibodies had early elevations in blood glucose concentrations. A sharp and sustained rise in postprandial blood glucose was observed at around 2 months prior to autoantibody seroconversion, with further increases in postprandial and, subsequently, preprandial values after seroconversion. These findings show heterogeneity in blood glucose control in infancy and early childhood and suggest that islet autoimmunity is concurrent or subsequent to insults on the pancreatic islets.

Predictors of the Initiation of Islet Autoimmunity and Progression to Multiple Autoantibodies and Clinical Diabetes: The TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: To distinguish among predictors of seroconversion, progression to multiple autoantibodies and from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes in young children. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Genetically high-risk newborns (n = 8,502) were followed for a median of 11.2 years (interquartile range 9.3-12.6); 835 (9.8%) developed islet autoantibodies and 283 (3.3%) were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Predictors were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Predictors of seroconversion and progression differed, depending on the type of first appearing autoantibody. Male sex, Finnish residence, having a sibling with type 1 diabetes, the HLA DR4 allele, probiotic use before age 28 days, and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs689_A (INS) predicted seroconversion to IAA-first (having islet autoantibody to insulin as the first appearing autoantibody). Increased weight at 12 months and SNPs rs12708716_G (CLEC16A) and rs2292239_T (ERBB3) predicted GADA-first (autoantibody to GAD as the first appearing). For those having a father with type 1 diabetes, the SNPs rs2476601_A (PTPN22) and rs3184504_T (SH2B3) predicted both. Younger age at seroconversion predicted progression from single to multiple autoantibodies as well as progression to diabetes, except for those presenting with GADA-first. Family history of type 1 diabetes and the HLA DR4 allele predicted progression to multiple autoantibodies but not diabetes. Sex did not predict progression to multiple autoantibodies, but males progressed more slowly than females from multiple autoantibodies to diabetes. SKAP2 and MIR3681HG SNPs are newly reported to be significantly associated with progression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Predictors of IAA-first versus GADA-first autoimmunity differ from each other and from the predictors of progression to diabetes.

Rising Hemoglobin A1c in the Nondiabetic Range Predicts Progression of Type 1 Diabetes As Well As Oral Glucose Tolerance Tests.

OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers predicting risk of type 1 diabetes (stage 3) among children with islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis and facilitate prevention therapies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Children in the prospective The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study (n = 707) with confirmed diabetes-associated autoantibodies (GAD antibody, IA-2A, and/or insulin autoantibody) and two or more HbA1c measurements were followed to diabetes or median age 11.1 years. Once confirmed autoantibody positive, HbA1c was measured quarterly. Cox models and receiver operative characteristic curve analyses revealed the prognostic utility for risk of stage 3 on a relative HbA1c increase from the baseline visit or an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose (2-hPG). This HbA1c approach was then validated in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (TrialNet) (n = 1,190). RESULTS: A 10% relative HbA1c increase from baseline best marked the increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (74% sensitive; 88% specific). Significant predictors of risk for HbA1c change were age and HbA1c at the baseline test, genetic sex, maximum number of autoantibodies, and maximum rate of HbA1c increase by time of change. The multivariable model featuring a HbA1c ≥10% increase and these additional factors revealed increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (hazard ratio [HR] 12.74, 95% CI 8.7-18.6, P < 0.0001) and TrialNet (HR 5.09, 95% CI 3.3-7.9, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the composite model using HbA1c ≥10% increase performed similarly to an OGTT 2-hPG composite model (TEDDY area under the curve [AUC] 0.88 and 0.85, respectively) and to the HbA1c model in TrialNet (AUC 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: An increase of ≥10% in HbA1c from baseline is as informative as OGTT 2-hPG in predicting risk of stage 3 in youth with genetic risk and diabetes-associated autoantibodies.