Target product profiles: tests for tuberculosis treatment monitoring and optimization.

The World Health Organization has developed target product profiles containing minimum and optimum targets for key characteristics for tests for tuberculosis treatment monitoring and optimization. Tuberculosis treatment optimization refers to initiating or switching to an effective tuberculosis treatment regimen that results in a high likelihood of a good treatment outcome. The target product profiles also cover tests of cure conducted at the end of treatment. The development of the target product profiles was informed by a stakeholder survey, a cost-effectiveness analysis and a patient-care pathway analysis. Additional feedback from stakeholders was obtained by means of a Delphi-like process, a technical consultation and a call for public comment on a draft document. A scientific development group agreed on the final targets in a consensus meeting. For characteristics rated of highest importance, the document lists: (i) high diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity); (ii) time to result of optimally ≤ 2 hours and no more than 1 day; (iii) required sample type to be minimally invasive, easily obtainable, such as urine, breath, or capillary blood, or a respiratory sample that goes beyond sputum; (iv) ideally the test could be placed at a peripheral-level health facility without a laboratory; and (v) the test should be affordable to low- and middle-income countries, and allow wide and equitable access and scale-up. Use of these target product profiles should facilitate the development of new tuberculosis treatment monitoring and optimization tests that are accurate and accessible for all people being treated for tuberculosis.

L'Organisation mondiale de la santé a élaboré des profils de produits cibles contenant des cibles minimales et optimales pour les caractéristiques principales des essais destinés au suivi et à l'optimisation du traitement de la tuberculose. L'optimisation du traitement de la tuberculose fait référence à l'instauration d'un régime de traitement efficace de la tuberculose ou à l'adoption d'un tel régime, avec une probabilité élevée d'obtenir de bons résultats thérapeutiques. Les profils de produits cibles couvrent également les essais de guérison effectués à l'issue du traitement. Les profils de produits cibles ont été élaborés sur la base d'un sondage auprès des parties prenantes, d'une analyse coût-efficacité et d'une analyse du parcours de soins du patient. Des retours supplémentaires des parties prenantes ont été obtenus au moyen d'un processus créé selon la méthode Delphi, d'une consultation technique et d'un appel à commentaires publics sur un projet de document. Un groupe d'élaboration scientifique s'est mis d'accord sur les objectifs finaux lors d'une réunion de concertation. En ce qui concerne les caractéristiques jugées les plus importantes, le document énumère ce qui suit: (i) une grande précision diagnostique (sensibilité et spécificité); (ii) un délai idéal d'obtention des résultats ≤ 2 heures et au maximum de 1 jour; (iii) le type d'échantillon requis doit être peu invasif et facile à obtenir, comme l'urine, l'haleine ou le sang capillaire, ou bien un échantillon respiratoire au-delà des expectorations; (iv) idéalement, l'essai pourrait avoir lieu dans un établissement de santé périphérique sans laboratoire ; et (v) l'essai devrait être abordable pour les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire et permettre un accès large et équitable ainsi qu'une mise à l'échelle. L'utilisation de ces profils de produits cibles devrait faciliter la mise au point de nouveaux essais de surveillance et d'optimisation du traitement de la tuberculose qui soient précis et accessibles à toutes les personnes suivant un traitement pour la tuberculose.

La Organización Mundial de la Salud ha elaborado perfiles de productos objetivo que contienen objetivos mínimos y óptimos para las características principales de las pruebas de seguimiento y optimización del tratamiento de la tuberculosis. La optimización del tratamiento de la tuberculosis consiste en iniciar o cambiar a un régimen eficaz de tratamiento de la tuberculosis que ofrezca una alta probabilidad de un buen resultado terapéutico. Los perfiles de productos objetivo también abarcan las pruebas de curación realizadas al final del tratamiento. La elaboración de los perfiles de los productos objetivo se basó en una encuesta a las partes interesadas, un análisis de rentabilidad y un análisis de la vía de atención al paciente. Se obtuvo información adicional de las partes interesadas mediante un proceso tipo Delphi, una consulta técnica y una convocatoria de comentarios públicos sobre un borrador del documento. Un grupo de desarrollo científico acordó los objetivos finales en una reunión de consenso. Para las características clasificadas de mayor importancia, el documento enumera: (i) alta precisión diagnóstica (sensibilidad y especificidad); (ii) tiempo hasta el resultado de óptimamente ≤ 2 horas y no más de 1 día; (iii) el tipo de muestra requerida debe ser mínimamente invasiva, fácil de obtener, como orina, aliento o sangre capilar, o una muestra respiratoria que vaya más allá del esputo; (iv) idealmente la prueba podría realizarse en un centro sanitario periférico sin laboratorio; y (v) la prueba debe ser asequible para los países de ingresos bajos y medios y permitir un acceso amplio y equitativo y su expansión. El uso de estos perfiles de producto objetivo debería facilitar el desarrollo de pruebas nuevas de seguimiento y optimización del tratamiento de la tuberculosis que sean precisas y accesibles para todas las personas que reciben tratamiento antituberculoso.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global tuberculosis epidemic.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of ill health worldwide. Until the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, TB was the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. COVID-19 has caused enormous health, social and economic upheavals since 2020, impairing access to essential TB services. In marked contrast to the steady global increase in TB detection between 2017 and 2019, TB notifications dropped substantially in 2020 compared with 2019 (-18%), with only a partial recovery in 2021. TB epidemiology worsened during the pandemic: the estimated 10.6 million people who fell ill with TB worldwide in 2021 is an increase of 4.5% from the previous year, reversing many years of slow decline. The annual number of TB deaths worldwide fell steadily between 2005 and 2019, reaching 1.4 million in 2019, but this trend was reversed in 2020 (1.5 million), and by 2021 global TB deaths were back to the level of 2017 (1.6 million). Intensified efforts backed by increased funding are urgently required to reverse the negative impacts of COVID-19 on TB worldwide, made more pressing by ongoing conflicts, a global energy crisis and uncertainties in food security that are likely to worsen the broader determinants of TB.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. METHODS: We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. RESULTS: Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95% uncertainty interval: US$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

Scaling Up TB Screening and TB Preventive Treatment Globally: Key Actions and Healthcare Service Costs.

The 2018 United Nations High-Level Meeting on Tuberculosis (UNHLM) set targets for case detection and TB preventive treatment (TPT) by 2022. However, by the start of 2022, about 13.7 million TB patients still needed to be detected and treated, and 21.8 million household contacts needed to be given TPT globally. To inform future target setting, we examined how the 2018 UNHLM targets could have been achieved using WHO-recommended interventions for TB detection and TPT in 33 high-TB burden countries in the final year of the period covered by the UNHLM targets. We used OneHealth-TIME model outputs combined with the unit cost of interventions to derive the total costs of health services. Our model estimated that, in order to achieve UNHLM targets, >45 million people attending health facilities with symptoms would have needed to be evaluated for TB. An additional 23.1 million people with HIV, 19.4 million household TB contacts, and 303 million individuals from high-risk groups would have required systematic screening for TB. The estimated total costs amounted to ~USD 6.7 billion, of which ~15% was required for passive case finding, ~10% for screening people with HIV, ~4% for screening household contacts, ~65% for screening other risk groups, and ~6% for providing TPT to household contacts. Significant mobilization of additional domestic and international investments in TB healthcare services will be needed to reach such targets in the future.

Updating the WHO target product profile for next-generation Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing at peripheral centres.

There were approximately 10 million tuberculosis (TB) cases in 2020, of which 500,000 were drug-resistant. Only one third of drug-resistant TB cases were diagnosed and enrolled on appropriate treatment, an issue partly driven by a lack of rapid, accurate drug-susceptibility testing (DST) tools deployable in peripheral settings. In 2014, World Health Organization (WHO) published target product profiles (TPPs) which detailed minimal and optimal criteria to address high-priority TB diagnostic needs, including DST. Since then, the TB community's needs have evolved; new treatment regimens, changes in TB definitions, further emergence of drug resistance, technological advances, and changing end-users requirements have necessitated an update. The DST TPP's revision was therefore undertaken by WHO with the Stop TB Partnership New Diagnostics Working Group. We describe the process of updating the TPP for next-generation TB DST for use at peripheral centres, highlight key updates, and discuss guidance regarding technical and operational specifications.

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. METHODS: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. FINDINGS: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. FUNDING: WHO (2020/985800-0). TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

The 2021 WHO catalogue of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex mutations associated with drug resistance: A genotypic analysis.

Background: Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achieving rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosiscomplex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction. Methods: A candidate gene approach was used to identify mutations as associated with resistance, or consistent with susceptibility, for 13 WHO endorsed anti-tuberculosis drugs. 38,215 MTBC isolates with paired whole-genome sequencing and phenotypic drug susceptibility testing data were amassed from 45 countries. For each mutation, a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation computed positive predictive value, and Fisher's exact tests generated odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p-values. Mutations were graded as Associated with Resistance if present in at least 5 isolates, if the odds ratio was >1 with a statistically significant corrected p-value, and if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was >25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation. Findings: 15,667 associations were computed for 13,211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1,149/15,667 (7·3%) mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107/15,667 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was >80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were classified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs. Interpretation: This first WHO endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing provides a global standard for resistance interpretation. Its existence should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by National Tuberculosis Programmes. Funding: UNITAID, Wellcome, MRC, BMGF.

25 years of surveillance of drug-resistant tuberculosis: achievements, challenges, and way forward.

Tuberculosis is second only to COVID-19 as a cause of death from a single infectious agent. In 2020, almost 10 million people were estimated to have developed tuberculosis and it caused 1·5 million deaths. Around a quarter of deaths caused by antimicrobial resistance are due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems for many bacterial pathogens are still in the early stages of implementation in many countries, and do not yet allow for the estimation of disease burden at the national level. In this Personal View, we present the achievements, challenges, and way forward for the oldest and largest global antimicrobial resistance surveillance system. Hosted by WHO since 1994, the Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance has served as a platform for the evaluation of the trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance for over 25 years at country, regional, and global levels. With an estimated 465 000 incident cases of multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in 2019, drug-resistant tuberculosis remains a public health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has reversed years of progress in providing essential tuberculosis services and reducing disease burden. The number of people diagnosed with drug-resistant tuberculosis has dropped by 22% since before the pandemic, and the number of patients provided with treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis has dropped by 15%. Now more than ever, closing gaps in the detection of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires investment in research and development of new diagnostic tools and their rollout, expansion of sample transport systems, and the implementation of data connectivity solutions.

Building the concept for WHO Evidence Considerations for Vaccine Policy (ECVP): Tuberculosis vaccines intended for adults and adolescents as a test case.

Currently, no formal mechanisms or systematic approaches exist to inform developers of new vaccines of the evidence anticipated to facilitate global policy recommendations, before a vaccine candidate approaches regulatory approval at the end of pre-licensure efficacy studies. Consequently, significant delays may result in vaccine introduction and uptake, while post-licensure data are generated to support a definitive policy decision. To address the uncertainties of the evidence-to-recommendation data needs and to mitigate the risk of delays between vaccine recommendation and use, WHO is evaluating the need for and value of a new strategic alignment tool: Evidence Considerations for Vaccine Policy (ECVP). EVCPs aim to fill a critical current gap by providing early (pre-phase 3 study design) information on the anticipated clinical trial and observational data or evidence that could support WHO and/or policy decision making for new vaccines in priority disease areas. The intent of ECVPs is to inform vaccine developers, funders, and other key stakeholders, facilitating stakeholder alignment in their strategic planning for late stage vaccine development. While ECVPs are envisaged as a tool to support dialogue on evidence needs between regulators and policy makers at the national, regional and global level, development of an ECVP will not preclude or supersede the independent WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) evidence to recommendation (EtR) process that is required for all vaccines seeking WHO policy recommendation. Tuberculosis (TB) vaccine candidates intended for use in the adolescent and adult target populations comprise a portfolio of priority vaccines in late-stage clinical development. As such, TB vaccines intended for use in this target population provide a 'test case' to further develop the ECVP concept, and develop the first WHO ECVP considerations guidance.

Population structure, biogeography and transmissibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a clonal pathogen proposed to have co-evolved with its human host for millennia, yet our understanding of its genomic diversity and biogeography remains incomplete. Here we use a combination of phylogenetics and dimensionality reduction to reevaluate the population structure of M. tuberculosis, providing an in-depth analysis of the ancient Indo-Oceanic Lineage 1 and the modern Central Asian Lineage 3, and expanding our understanding of Lineages 2 and 4. We assess sub-lineages using genomic sequences from 4939 pan-susceptible strains, and find 30 new genetically distinct clades that we validate in a dataset of 4645 independent isolates. We find a consistent geographically restricted or unrestricted pattern for 20 groups, including three groups of Lineage 1. The distribution of terminal branch lengths across the M. tuberculosis phylogeny supports the hypothesis of a higher transmissibility of Lineages 2 and 4, in comparison with Lineages 3 and 1, on a global scale. We define an expanded barcode of 95 single nucleotide substitutions that allows rapid identification of 69 M. tuberculosis sub-lineages and 26 additional internal groups. Our results paint a higher resolution picture of the M. tuberculosis phylogeny and biogeography.

Recommendation mapping of the World Health Organization's guidelines on tuberculosis: A new approach to digitizing and presenting recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Having up-to-date health policy recommendations accessible in one location is in high demand by guideline users. We developed an easy to navigate interactive approach to organize recommendations and applied it to tuberculosis (TB) guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO). STUDY DESIGN: We used a mixed-methods study design to develop a framework for recommendation mapping with seven key methodological considerations. We define a recommendation map as an online repository of recommendations from several guidelines on a condition, providing links to the underlying evidence and expert judgments that inform them, allowing users to filter and cross-tabulate the search results. We engaged guideline developers, users, and health software engineers in an iterative process to elaborate the WHO eTB recommendation map. RESULTS: Applying the seven-step framework, we included 228 recommendations, linked to 103 guideline questions and organized the recommendation map according to key components of the health question, including the original recommendations and rationale (https://who.tuberculosis.recmap.org/). CONCLUSION: The recommendation mapping framework provides the entire continuum of evidence mapping by framing recommendations within a guideline questions' population, interventions, and comparators domains. Recommendation maps should allow guideline developers to organize their work meaningfully, standardize the automated publication of guidelines through links to the GRADEpro guideline development tool, and increase their accessibility and usability.