Modelling effects of time-variable exposure to the pyrethroid beta-cyfluthrin on rainbow trout early life stages.

BACKGROUND: Available literature and regulatory studies show that the severity of effects of beta-cyfluthrin (a synthetic pyrethroid) on fish is influenced by the magnitude and duration of exposure. To investigate how the exposure pattern to beta-cyfluthrin (constant vs peak) may influence the response of the fish, we used a mechanistic effect model to predict the survival and growth of the rainbow trout over its early life stages (i.e. egg, alevin and swim-up fry). We parameterized a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) module in combination with a dynamic energy budget model enabling us to describe uptake and elimination, as well as to predict the threshold concentration for survival and sublethal effects (feeding behaviour and growth). This effect model was calibrated using data from an early life stage experiment where trout was exposed to a constant concentration of cyfluthrin. The model was validated by comparing model predictions to independent data from a pulsed-exposure study with early life stages of rainbow trout. RESULTS: The co-occurrence of effects on behaviour and growth raised the possibility that these were interrelated, i.e. impairment of feeding behaviour may have led to reduced food intake and slower growth. We, therefore, included 'effect on feeding' as mode of action in the TKTD module. At higher concentrations, the constant exposure led to death. The model was able to adequately capture this effect pattern in the calibration. The model was able to adequately predict the response of fish eggs, alevins and swim-up fry, from both the qualitative (response pattern) and quantitative points of view. CONCLUSIONS: Since the model was successfully validated, it can be used to predict survival and growth of early life stages under various realistic time-variable exposure profiles (e.g. profiles from FOCUS surface water modelling) of beta-cyfluthrin.

Toward sustainable environmental quality: Priority research questions for Europe.

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals have been established to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all. Delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals will require a healthy and productive environment. An understanding of the impacts of chemicals which can negatively impact environmental health is therefore essential to the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, current research on and regulation of chemicals in the environment tend to take a simplistic view and do not account for the complexity of the real world, which inhibits the way we manage chemicals. There is therefore an urgent need for a step change in the way we study and communicate the impacts and control of chemicals in the natural environment. To do this requires the major research questions to be identified so that resources are focused on questions that really matter. We present the findings of a horizon-scanning exercise to identify research priorities of the European environmental science community around chemicals in the environment. Using the key questions approach, we identified 22 questions of priority. These questions covered overarching questions about which chemicals we should be most concerned about and where, impacts of global megatrends, protection goals, and sustainability of chemicals; the development and parameterization of assessment and management frameworks; and mechanisms to maximize the impact of the research. The research questions identified provide a first-step in the path forward for the research, regulatory, and business communities to better assess and manage chemicals in the natural environment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2281-2295. © 2018 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

DEBkiss or the quest for the simplest generic model of animal life history.

Understanding the life cycle of individual animals, and how it responds to stress, requires a model that causally links life-history traits (feeding, growth, development and reproduction). Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory offers a powerful and formalised framework for building process-based models for organism life cycles. However, it takes some serious investment to understand the resulting equations and to implement them into software, and a substantial amount of data to parameterise. For many practical applications, there is therefore a need for further simplification. Here, we present a simple and transparent model that fully specifies the life cycle of an (invertebrate) animal, applies a strict mass balance, and has direct access to the primary parameters that determine the metabolic processes. We derive our 'DEBkiss' in a formalised manner, starting from an explicit formulation of the simplifying assumptions. The presented model can serve as a teaching tool and a smooth introduction into the much richer world of DEB theory. Furthermore, the model may prove useful as a building block for individual-based population modelling (where simplicity of the blocks is essential), and for the analysis of toxicity data (where ease of model verification and parameterisation is crucial). The model is illustrated using a fit on growth and reproduction data for the pond snail (Lymnaea stagnalis) at three food levels, and subsequent predictions for embryonic growth and respiration (oxygen use), and weight loss on starvation, for the same species.

Juvenile food limitation in standardized tests: a warning to ecotoxicologists.

Standard ecotoxicological tests are as simple as possible and food sources are mainly chosen for practical reasons. Since some organisms change their food preferences during the life-cycle, they might be food limited at some stage if we do not account for such a switch. As organisms tend to respond more sensitively to toxicant exposure under food limitation, the interpretation of test results may then be biased. Using a reformulation of the von Bertalanffy model to analyze growth data of the pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis, we detected food limitation in the early juvenile phase. The snails were held under conditions proposed for a standardized test protocol, which prescribes lettuce as food source. Additional experiments showed that juveniles grow considerably faster when fed with fish flakes. The model is based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, which allows for mechanistic interpretation of toxic effects in terms of changes in energy allocation. In a simulation study with the DEB model, we compared the effects of three hypothetical toxicants in different feeding situations. The initial food limitation when fed with lettuce always intensified the effect of the toxicants. When fed with fish flakes, the predicted effect of the toxicants was less pronounced. From this study, we conclude that (i) the proposed test conditions for L. stagnalis are not optimal, and require further investigation, (ii) fish flakes are a better food source for juvenile pond snails than lettuce, (iii) analyzing data with a mechanistic modeling approach such as DEB allows identifying deviations from constant conditions, (iv) being unaware of food limitation in the laboratory can lead to an overestimation of toxicity in ecotoxicological tests.