Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Diseases Sensitive to Primary Health Care in Paraná State, Brazil: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model.

PURPOSE: To analyze spatiotemporal trends in hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) sensitive to primary health care (PHC) among individuals aged 50-69 years in Paraná State, Brazil, from 2014 to 2019 and investigate correlations between PHC services and the Social Development Index. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using publicly available secondary data to analyze the municipal incidence of hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC and to estimate the risk of hospitalization for this group of diseases and associated factors using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: There was a 5% decrease in the average rate of hospitalizations for PHC-sensitive CVD from 2014 to 2019. Regarding standardized hospitalization rate (SHR) according to population size, we found that no large municipality had an SHR >2. Likewise, a minority of these municipalities had SHR values of 1-2 (33%). However, many small and medium-sized municipalities had SHR values >2 (47% and 48%, respectively). A greater Social Development Index value served as a protective factor against hospitalizations, with a relative risk of 0.957 (95% credible interval, 0.929-0.984). CONCLUSIONS: The annual risk of hospitalization decreased over time; however, small municipalities had the greatest rates of hospitalization, indicating an increase in health inequity. The inverse association between social development and hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC raises questions about intersectionality in health care.

Mortality in Women with Coronary Artery Disease in Paraná State, Brazil: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Background: Mortality resulting from coronary artery disease (CAD) among women is a complex issue influenced by many factors that encompass not only biological distinctions but also sociocultural, economic, and healthcare-related components. Understanding these factors is crucial to enhance healthcare provisions. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the social and clinical variables related to the risk of mortality caused by CAD in women aged 50 to 79 years old in Paraná state, Brazil, between 2010 and 2019. Methods: This is an ecological study based on secondary data sourced from E-Gestor, IPARDES, and DATASUS. We developed a model that integrates both raw and standardized coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality rates, along with sociodemographic and healthcare service variables. We employed Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to assess the relative risk of CAD mortality, focusing specifically on women across the state of Paraná. Results: A total of 14,603 deaths from CAD occurred between 2010 and 2019. Overall, temporal analysis indicates that the risk of CAD mortality decreased by around 22.6% between 2010 (RR of 1.06) and 2019 (RR of 0.82). This decline was most prominent after 2014. The exercise stress testing rate, accessibility of cardiology centers, and IPARDES municipal performance index contributed to the reduction of CAD mortality by approximately 4%, 8%, and 34%, respectively. However, locally, regions in the Central-West, Central-South, Central-East, and Southern regions of the Central-North parts of the state exhibited risks higher-than-expected. Conclusion: In the last decade, CAD-related deaths among women in Paraná state decreased. This was influenced by more exercise stress testing, better access to cardiology centers, improved municipal performance index. Yet, elevated risks of deaths persist in certain regions due to medical disparities and varying municipal development. Therefore, prioritizing strategies to enhance women's access to cardiovascular healthcare in less developed regions is crucial.

Emergency Care Gap in Brazil: Geographical Accessibility as a Proxy of Response Capacity to Tackle COVID-19.

Background: The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has claimed thousands of lives worldwide and disrupted the health system in many countries. As the national emergency care capacity is a crucial part of the COVID-19 response, we evaluated the Brazilian Health Care System response preparedness against the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A retrospective and ecological study was performed with data retrieved from the Brazilian Information Technology Department of the Public Health Care System. The numbers of intensive care (ICU) and hospital beds, general or intensivist physicians, nurses, nursing technicians, physiotherapists, and ventilators from each health region were extracted. Beds per health professionals and ventilators per population rates were assessed. A health service accessibility index was created using a two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA). A spatial analysis using Getis-Ord Gi* was performed to identify areas lacking access to high-complexity centers (HCC). Results: As of February 2020, Brazil had 35,682 ICU beds, 426,388 hospital beds, and 65,411 ventilators. In addition, 17,240 new ICU beds were created in June 2020. The South and Southeast regions have the highest rates of professionals and infrastructure to attend patients with COVID-19 compared with the northern region. The north region has the lowest accessibility to ICUs. Conclusions: The Brazilian Health Care System is unevenly distributed across the country. The inequitable distribution of health facilities, equipment, and human resources led to inadequate preparedness to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the ineffectiveness of public measures of the municipal and federal administrations aggravated the pandemic in Brazil.

The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors, Coverage and Access to Health on Heart Ischemic Disease Mortality in a Brazilian Southern State: A Geospatial Analysis.

Background: No other disease has killed more than ischemic heart disease (IHD) for the past few years globally. Despite the advances in cardiology, the response time for starting treatment still leads patients to death because of the lack of healthcare coverage and access to referral centers. Objectives: To analyze the spatial disparities related to IHD mortality in the Parana state, Brazil. Methods: An ecological study using secondary data from Brazilian Health Informatics Department between 2013-2017 was performed to verify the IHD mortality. An spatial analysis was performed using the Global Moran and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to verify the spatial dependency of IHD mortality. Lastly, multivariate spatial regression models were also developed using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to identify socioeconomic indicators (aging, income, and illiteracy rates), exam coverage (catheterization, angioplasty, and revascularization rates), and access to health (access index to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers) significantly correlated with IHD mortality. The chosen model was based on p < 0.05, highest adjusted R2 and lowest Akaike Information Criterion. Results: A total of 22,920 individuals died from IHD between 2013-2017. The spatial analysis confirmed a positive spatial autocorrelation global between IDH mortality rates (Moran's I: 0.633, p < 0.01). The LISA analysis identified six high-high pattern clusters composed by 66 municipalities (16.5%). GWR presented the best model (Adjusted R2: 0.72) showing that accessibility to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers, and revascularization and angioplasty rates differentially affect the IHD mortality rates geographically. Aging and illiteracy rate presented positive correlation with IHD mortality rate, while income ratio presented negative correlation (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Regions of vulnerability were unveiled by the spatial analysis where sociodemographic, exam coverage and accessibility to health variables impacted differently the IHD mortality rates in Paraná state, Brazil. Highlights: The increase in ischemic heart disease mortality rates is related to geographical disparities.The IHD mortality is differentially associated to socioeconomic factors, exam coverage, and access to health.Higher accessibility to chemical reperfusion centers did not necessarily improve patient outcomes in some regions of the state.Clusters of high mortality rate are placed in regions with low amount of cardiologists, income and schooling.