Disentangling the relationships of body mass index and circulating sex hormone concentrations in mammographic density using Mendelian randomization.

PURPOSE: Mammographic density phenotypes, adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), are strong predictors of breast cancer risk. BMI is associated with mammographic density measures, but the role of circulating sex hormone concentrations is less clear. We investigated the relationship between BMI, circulating sex hormone concentrations, and mammographic density phenotypes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: We applied two-sample MR approaches to assess the association between genetically predicted circulating concentrations of sex hormones [estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)], BMI, and mammographic density phenotypes (dense and non-dense area). We created instrumental variables from large European ancestry-based genome-wide association studies and applied estimates to mammographic density phenotypes in up to 14,000 women of European ancestry. We performed analyses overall and by menopausal status. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with non-dense area (IVW: ß = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.58, 2.00; p = 9.57 × 10-63) and inversely associated with dense area (IVW: ß = - 0.37; 95% CI = - 0.51,- 0.23; p = 4.7 × 10-7). We observed weak evidence for an association of circulating sex hormone concentrations with mammographic density phenotypes, specifically inverse associations between genetically predicted testosterone concentration and dense area (ß = - 0.22; 95% CI = - 0.38, - 0.053; p = 0.009) and between genetically predicted estradiol concentration and non-dense area (ß = - 3.32; 95% CI = - 5.83, - 0.82; p = 0.009), although results were not consistent across a range of MR approaches. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a positive causal association between BMI and mammographic non-dense area and an inverse association between BMI and dense area. Evidence was weaker and inconsistent for a causal effect of circulating sex hormone concentrations on mammographic density phenotypes. Based on our findings, associations between circulating sex hormone concentrations and mammographic density phenotypes are weak at best.

Large-scale genome-wide association study of 398,238 women unveils seven novel loci associated with high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer risk.

Background: Nineteen genomic regions have been associated with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). We used data from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA), UK Biobank (UKBB), and FinnGen to identify novel HGSOC susceptibility loci and develop polygenic scores (PGS). Methods: We analyzed >22 million variants for 398,238 women. Associations were assessed separately by consortium and meta-analysed. OCAC and CIMBA data were used to develop PGS which were trained on FinnGen data and validated in UKBB and BioBank Japan. Results: Eight novel variants were associated with HGSOC risk. An interesting discovery biologically was finding that TP53 3'-UTR SNP rs78378222 was associated with HGSOC (per T allele relative risk (RR)=1.44, 95%CI:1.28-1.62, P=1.76×10-9). The optimal PGS included 64,518 variants and was associated with an odds ratio of 1.46 (95%CI:1.37-1.54) per standard deviation in the UKBB validation (AUROC curve=0.61, 95%CI:0.59-0.62). Conclusions: This study represents the largest GWAS for HGSOC to date. The results highlight that improvements in imputation reference panels and increased sample sizes can identify HGSOC associated variants that previously went undetected, resulting in improved PGS. The use of updated PGS in cancer risk prediction algorithms will then improve personalized risk prediction for HGSOC.

Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction.

The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

Quest markup for developing FAIR questionnaire modules for epidemiologic studies.

BACKGROUND: Online questionnaires are commonly used to collect information from participants in epidemiological studies. This requires building questionnaires using machine-readable formats that can be delivered to study participants using web-based technologies such as progressive web applications. However, the paucity of open-source markup standards with support for complex logic make collaborative development of web-based questionnaire modules difficult. This often prevents interoperability and reusability of questionnaire modules across epidemiological studies. RESULTS: We developed an open-source markup language for presentation of questionnaire content and logic, Quest, within a real-time renderer that enables the user to test logic (e.g., skip patterns) and view the structure of data collection. We provide the Quest markup language, an in-browser markup rendering tool, questionnaire development tool and an example web application that embeds the renderer, developed for The Connect for Cancer Prevention Study. CONCLUSION: A markup language can specify both the content and logic of a questionnaire as plain text. Questionnaire markup, such as Quest, can become a standard format for storing questionnaires or sharing questionnaires across the web. Quest is a step towards generation of FAIR data in epidemiological studies by facilitating reusability of questionnaires and data interoperability using open-source tools.

epiDonate - distributed serverless data infrastructure for epidemiological studies.

Motivation: Epidemiological studies face two important challenges: the need to ingest ever more complex data types, and mounting concerns about participant privacy and data governance. These two challenges are compounded by the expectation that data infrastructure will eventually need to facilitate cross-registration of participants by multiple epidemiological studies. Implementation: The portable web-service epiDonate was developed using the serverless model known as FaaS (Function-as-a-Service). The reference implementation uses nodejs. The implementation relies on a simple tokenization scheme, mediated by a public API, that a) distinguishes admin from participant roles, with b) extensible permission configuration operating a read/write structure. General Features: The critical design feature of epiDonate is the absence of business logic on the server-side (the web service). The simplicity removes the need to customize virtual machines and enables ecosystems of multiple web Applications backed by one or more data donation deployments. Availability: https://episphere.github.io/donate.

Associations between reproductive factors and biliary tract cancers in women from the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear. METHODS: We pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study. RESULTS: During 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR ≥5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25-2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09-1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.22) in Asian women only. CONCLUSION: We observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography. LAY SUMMARY: Our findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers.

Association of lifestyle and clinical characteristics with receipt of radiotherapy treatment among women diagnosed with DCIS in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PURPOSE: The long-term risks and benefits of radiotherapy for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remain unclear. Recent data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries showed that DCIS-associated radiotherapy treatment significantly increased risk of second non-breast cancers including lung cancer. To help understand those observations and whether breast cancer risk factors are related to radiotherapy treatment decision-making, we examined associations between lifestyle and clinical factors with DCIS radiotherapy receipt. METHODS: Among 1628 participants from the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, diagnosed with incident DCIS (1995-2011), we examined associations between lifestyle and clinical factors with radiotherapy receipt. Radiotherapy and clinical information were ascertained from state cancer registries. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for radiotherapy receipt (yes/no) were estimated from multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 45% (n = 730) received radiotherapy. No relationships were observed for most lifestyle factors and radiotherapy receipt, including current smoking (OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.70, 1.34). However positive associations were observed for moderate alcohol consumption and infrequent physical activity. The strongest associations were observed for radiotherapy receipt and more recent diagnoses (2005-2011 vs. 1995-1999; OR 1.60, 95%CI 1.14, 2.25), poorly versus well-differentiated tumors (OR 1.69, 95%CI 1.16, 2.46) and endocrine therapy (OR 3.37, 95%CI 2.56, 4.44). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics were the strongest determinants of DCIS radiotherapy. Receipt was largely unrelated to lifestyle factors suggesting that the previously observed associations in SEER were likely not confounded by these lifestyle factors. Further studies are needed to understand mechanisms driving radiotherapy-associated second malignancies following DCIS, to identify prevention opportunities for this growing population.

Increasing risk of uterine cervical cancer among young Japanese women: Comparison of incidence trends in Japan, South Korea and Japanese-Americans between 1985 and 2012.

In Japan, cervical cancer incidence has increased since the late 1990s especially among young women, despite a decreasing trend in most developed countries. Here, we examined age, period and birth cohort trends in cervical cancer incidence rates from 1985 to 2012. Incidence rates were ascertained using three population-based cancer registries and analyzed using Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models. We compared the findings in Japan to trends among Japanese-Americans in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registries and among women in South Korea using the Korea Central Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates in Japan decreased by 1.7% per year (95% confidence interval - 3.3%, 0.0%) until 1997 and thereafter increased by 2.6% per year (1.1%, 4.2%). Incidence rates increased among women under age 50, were stable among women aged 50-54, and decreased or remained stable among women aged 55 and over. The age-standardized incidence rate ratio by birth cohort showed a U-shaped pattern with the lowest rates in women born in the late 1930s and 1940s. In comparison, women born before 1920 and after 1970 had about double the incidence. Increasing risk in recent birth cohorts was not evident in Japanese-American or South Korean women. The trends in Japan may be attributable to increasing prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among young women. Screening and vaccination have been shown to be highly effective and would help reverse these trends.

Body size and multiple myeloma mortality: a pooled analysis of 20 prospective studies.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a rare but highly fatal malignancy. High body weight is associated with this cancer, but several questions remain regarding the aetiological relevance of timing and location of body weight. To address these questions, we conducted a pooled analysis of MM mortality using 1·5 million participants (including 1388 MM deaths) from 20 prospective cohorts in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Associations with elevated MM mortality were observed for higher early-adult body mass index (BMI; HR = 1·22, 95% CI: 1·09-1·35 per 5 kg/m(2) ) and for higher cohort-entry BMI (HR 1·09, 95% CI: 1·03-1·16 per 5 kg/m(2) ) and waist circumference (HR = 1·06, 95% CI: 1·02-1·10 per 5 cm). Women who were the heaviest, both in early adulthood (BMI 25+) and at cohort entry (BMI 30+) were at greater risk compared to those with BMI 18·5 ≤ 25 at both time points (HR = 1·95, 95% CI: 1·33-2·86). Waist-to-hip ratio and height were not associated with MM mortality. These observations suggest that overall, and possibly also central, obesity influence myeloma mortality, and women have the highest risk of death from this cancer if they remain heavy throughout adulthood.

Prospective investigation of body mass index, colorectal adenoma, and colorectal cancer in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial.

PURPOSE: Obesity has consistently been linked to an increased risk of colorectal cancer, particularly among men. Whether body mass index (BMI) differentially influences the risk across the stages of colorectal cancer development remains unclear. We evaluated the associations of BMI with colorectal adenoma incidence, adenoma recurrence, and cancer in the context of a large screening trial, in which cases and controls had an equal chance for disease detection. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the association between baseline BMI and the risk of incident distal adenoma (1,213 cases), recurrent adenoma (752 cases), and incident colorectal cancer (966 cases) among men and women, ages 55 to 74 years, randomly assigned to receive flexible sigmoidoscopy screening as part of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for adenoma incidence and recurrence, and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for colorectal cancer incidence, using multivariable-adjusted models. RESULTS: Compared with normal-weight men (18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)), obese men (≥ 30 kg/m(2)) had significantly higher risk of incident adenoma (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.65) and colorectal cancer (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.89) and a borderline increased risk of recurrent adenoma (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.98 to 2.30). No associations were observed for either adenoma or cancer in women. CONCLUSION: Data from this large prospective study suggest that obesity is important throughout the natural history of colorectal cancer, at least in men, and colorectal cancer prevention efforts should encourage the achievement and maintenance of a healthy body weight in addition to regular screenings.

Models of smoking and lung cancer risk: a means to an end.

This commentary provides some historical context to the analysis of smoking and lung cancer risk by Lubin and colleagues in this issue of epidemiology. It also considers the potential utility of ongoing efforts to apply complex mathematical models to epidemiologic data on smoking and lung cancer risk. We conclude that the work of Lubin and colleagues adds to the models already developed and points to some potential complexities that models should incorporate.