Cumulative incidence and risk factors for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma metastases in organ transplant recipients: The Skin Care in Organ Transplant Patients in Europe-International Transplant Skin Cancer Collaborative metastases study, a prospective multicenter study.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are believed to have an increased risk of metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), but reliable data are lacking regarding the precise incidence and associated risk factors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, including 19 specialist dermatology outpatient clinics in 15 countries, patient and tumor characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires when SOTRs presented with a new cSCC. After a minimum of 2 years of follow-up, relevant data for all SOTRs were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastases was calculated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Fine and Gray models were used to assess multiple risk factors for metastases. RESULTS: Of 514 SOTRs who presented with 623 primary cSCCs, metastases developed in 37 with a 2-year patient-based cumulative incidence of 6.2%. Risk factors for metastases included location in the head and neck area, local recurrence, size > 2 cm, clinical ulceration, poor differentiation grade, perineural invasion, and deep invasion. A high-stage tumor that is also ulcerated showed the highest risk of metastasis, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 46.2% (31.9%-68.4%). CONCLUSIONS: SOTRs have a high risk of cSCC metastases and well-established clinical and histologic risk factors have been confirmed. High-stage, ulcerated cSCCs have the highest risk of metastasis.

HLA expression as a risk factor for metastases of cutaneous squamous-cell carcinoma in organ- transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Solid organ-transplant recipients (SOTR) have an increased risk of cutaneous squamous-cell carcinoma (cSCC), metastasis and death from cSCC. In immunocompetent patients with mucosal SCC, downregulation of HLA class I is associated with poor prognosis. Since the degree of HLA expression on tumor cells could play a role in immunogenicity and pathophysiology of cSCC metastasis, we hypothesized that decreased HLA expression is associated with an increased risk of metastasis. METHODS: We compared HLA expression between primary metastasized cSCCs, their metastases, and non-metastasized cSCCs from the same patients. Samples were stained for HLA-A, HLA-B/-C and quantified by calculating the difference in immunoreactivity score (IRS) of the primary cSCC compared with all non-metastasized cSCCs. RESULTS: The mean IRS score for HLA-B/C expression was 2.07 point higher in metastasized compared to non-metastasized cSCCs (p = 0.065, 95 % CI -0.18-4.32). 83.3 % of the primary metastasized cSCCs had an IRS score of 4 or higher, compared to 42.9 % in non-metastasized cSCCs. Moderately to poorly differentiated cSCCs had more HLA class I expression compared to well-differentiated cSCCs. CONCLUSION: Contrary to immunocompetent patients, HLA-B/C expression tends to be upregulated in metastasized cSCC compared to non-metastasized cSCC in SOTR, suggesting that different tumor escape mechanisms play a role in SOTR compared to immunocompetent patients.

External Validation of the Skin and UV Neoplasia Transplant Risk Assessment Calculator (SUNTRAC) in a Large European Solid Organ Transplant Recipient Cohort.

Importance: The Skin and UV Neoplasia Transplant Risk Assessment Calculator (SUNTRAC) tool has been developed in the US to facilitate the identification of solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) at a higher risk of developing skin cancer. However, it has not yet been validated in populations other than the one used for its creation. Objective: To provide an external validation of the SUNTRAC tool in different SOTR populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective external validation prognostic study used data from a prospectively collected cohort of European SOTRs from transplant centers at teaching hospitals in the Netherlands (1995-2016) and Spain (2011-2021). Participants were screened and followed up at dermatology departments. Data were analyzed from September to October 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The discrimination ability of the SUNTRAC tool was assessed via a competing risk survival analysis, cumulative incidence plots, and Wolbers concordance index. Calibration of the SUNTRAC tool was assessed through comparison of projected skin cancer incidences. Skin cancer diagnoses included squamous cell carcinoma, basal cell carcinoma, melanoma, and Merkel cell carcinoma. Results: A total of 3421 SOTRs (median age at transplant, 53 [quartile 1: 42; quartile 3: 62] years; 2132 [62.3%] men) were assessed, including 72 Asian patients (2.1%), 137 Black patients (4.0%), 275 Latinx patients (8.0%), 109 Middle Eastern and North African patients (3.2%), and 2828 White patients (82.7%). With a total of 23 213 years of follow-up time, 603 patients developed skin cancer. The SUNTRAC tool classified patients into 4 groups with significantly different risks of developing skin cancer during follow-up. Overall, the relative rate for developing skin cancer estimated using subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and using the low-risk group as the reference group, increased according to the proposed risk group (medium-risk group: SHR, 6.8 [95% CI, 3.8-12.1]; P < .001; high-risk group: SHR, 15.9 [95% CI, 8.9-28.4]; P < .001; very-high-risk group: SHR, 54.8 [95% CI, 29.1-102.9]; P < .001), with a concordance index of 0.72. Actual skin cancer incidences were similar to those predicted by the SUNTRAC tool (5-year skin cancer cumulative incidence for medium-risk group: predicted, 6.2%; observed, 7.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this external validation prognostic study support the use of the SUNTRAC tool in European populations for stratifying SOTRs based on their skin cancer risk and also detecting patients at a high risk of developing skin cancer. This can be helpful in prioritizing and providing better screening and surveillance for these patients.