Modelling African horse sickness emergence and transmission in the South African control area using a deterministic metapopulation approach.

African horse sickness is an equine orbivirus transmitted by Culicoides Latreille biting midges. In the last 80 years, it has caused several devastating outbreaks in the equine population in Europe, the Far and Middle East, North Africa, South-East Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The disease is endemic in South Africa; however, a unique control area has been set up in the Western Cape where increased surveillance and control measures have been put in place. A deterministic metapopulation model was developed to explore if an outbreak might occur, and how it might develop, if a latently infected horse was to be imported into the control area, by varying the geographical location and months of import. To do this, a previously published ordinary differential equation model was developed with a metapopulation approach and included a vaccinated horse population. Outbreak length, time to peak infection, number of infected horses at the peak, number of horses overall affected (recovered or dead), re-emergence, and Rv (the basic reproduction number in the presence of vaccination) were recorded and displayed using GIS mapping. The model predictions were compared to previous outbreak data to ensure validity. The warmer months (November to March) had longer outbreaks than the colder months (May to September), took more time to reach the peak, and had a greater total outbreak size with more horses infected at the peak. Rv appeared to be a poor predictor of outbreak dynamics for this simulation. A sensitivity analysis indicated that control measures such as vaccination and vector control are potentially effective to manage the spread of an outbreak, and shortening the vaccination window to July to September may reduce the risk of vaccine-associated outbreaks.

Drivers and hazards of consumption of unpasteurised bovine milk and milk products in high-income countries.

Introduction: The consumption of dairy products contributes to health, nutrition, and livelihoods globally. However, dairy products do not come without microbiological food safety risks for consumers. Despite this risk, common hygiene measures in high-income countries, particularly pasteurisation, ensures that milk is safe, and is indeed frequently mandated by law. Nevertheless, over the past two decades, there has been a global increase in the number of consumers in high-income developed countries actively seeking out unpasteurised milk in liquid and product forms for perceived nutritional and health benefits, and improved taste. The often-anecdotal claims upon which consumers make such choices are not all supported by scientific evidence; however, some recent research studies have investigated (and in some cases demonstrated) the positive impact of unpasteurised milk consumption on the prevalence of asthma, atopy, rectal cancer and respiratory illness. Methods: To investigate the significance of unpasteurised milk and milk product consumption for human health in high-income countries, outbreak data between the years 2000 and 2018 were obtained for the United States of America, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, which were then categorized into three World Health Organisation subregions: AMR A, EUR A and WPR A. Outbreak dynamic variables such as pathogens, the place of consumption, numbers of outbreaks and deaths per million capita, the average number of cases per outbreak and regulations were described and analysed using R Studio. To provide an overview of unpasteurised milk-related disease outbreaks, a rapid evidence review was also undertaken to establish an overview of what is known in the current literature about hazards and drivers of consumption. Results: Foodborne outbreaks associated with unpasteurised dairy consumption have risen in high-income countries over the period 2000 to 2018, with Campylobacter spp. being the most common aetiological agent responsible, followed by Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. The most common places of consumption are on farms or in households, indicating individuals choose to drink unpasteurised milk, rather than a widespread distribution of the product, for example, at social events and in schools. Further study is needed to better understand contributing factors, such as cultural differences in the consumption of dairy products. Conclusion: There are several observable health benefits linked to consuming raw milk, but outbreaks associated with unpasteurised milk and milk products are on the rise. It cannot be definitively concluded whether the benefits outweigh the risks, and ultimately the decision lies with the individual consumer. Nevertheless, many countries have regulations in place to protect consumer health, acknowledging the definite risks to human health that unpasteurised dairy foods may pose, particularly from microbial hazards.

Socio-economic impacts of working horses in urban and peri-urban areas of the Cape Flats, South Africa.

In the Cape Flats townships, Cape Town, South Africa, there are more than 250 working cart horses. They serve the community with scrap metal and garden refuse removal, human transport and the selling of goods. A questionnaire was undertaken to understand the social and economic impacts of a horse and cart in the Cape Flats on individual owners and/or drivers, their households and the community. A mixture of classical quantitative questions combined with qualitative participatory technique questions were used. A total of 100 participants took part in the questionnaire, who cart with 163 horses between them. The majority (89%) identified the cart horse income as their primary income source. Apart from the participants, an additional 716 people were supported financially through this income, where the mean number of children supported was 2.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: ±0.42) per interviewed participant. Scrap metal transportation was the most common work and the season (winter) had a negative impact on their ability to work. The spatial extent to which a cart horses work was determined and related back to the impact on the horse and participant of the survey. It was demonstrated that the cart horse industry had an impact not only on those who worked in the industry, but also on the surrounding residents, either through their work or through supporting others with their income. This study revealed that the concepts of 'One Health' and 'Health in Social-Ecological Systems', in action as horse and human health within the Cape Flats are closely intertwined.