Future climate suitability of Hemileia vastatrix in arabica coffee under CMIP6 scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is one of the most important commodities today, with a high economic value worldwide. Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix Berk. et Br.) has been showing a high impact on Brazilian coffee trees among the various diseases that attack coffee. The climate has a great influence on the development of diseases, especially when fungi are the causal agents. This study aimed to carry out the zoning of climate favorability for coffee leaf rust in the traditional and main coffee-producing regions of Brazil. The study was conducted in 13 locations in the states of Paraná, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the current scenario were collected using the WorldClim version 2.1 platform for the last climatological normal and future climate change data. The ideal climate conditions for coffee leaf rust consist of a mean air temperature ranging from 21 to 25 °C and precipitation >30 mm per month. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects scenarios associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports consisted of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP-1 2.6, SSP-2 4.5, SSP-3 7.0 and SSP-5 8.5, the latter being considered one of the most catastrophic. All steps to carry out the suitability zoning were performed in a tool using the QGIS geographic information system software. RESULTS: Zoning for coffee leaf rust had three classes: favorable, relatively favorable and unfavorable. Currently, the largest coffee-producing region in Brazil has 49.1% of its analyzed area classified as favorable, 39.2% as relatively favorable and 11.7% as unfavorable. In the current scenario, Patrocínio and Três Pontas are locations with high coffee production in which the favorable class is predominant. The state of Minas Gerais has an annual mean of 55.3% of its entire territory apt for the disease, with the highest occurrence between September and March. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change has a negative impact on the development of coffee leaf rust, mainly in the long term, as in the period of 2081-2100, in which the SSP-5 8.5 scenario led to a decrease in the favorable and unfavorable areas and an increase in the relatively favorable areas of 9.8%, 18.6% and 71.5% for the Brazilian territory, respectively. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climatic zoning of yerba mate and climate change projections: a CMIP6 approach.

Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25 °C and a minimum precipitation of 1200 mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2081, and 2081-2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km2) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate.

Climate and disease: tackling coffee brown-eye spot with advanced forecasting models.

BACKGROUND: Climate influences the interaction between pathogens and their hosts significantly. This is particularly evident in the coffee industry, where fungal diseases like Cercospora coffeicola, causing brown-eye spot, can reduce yields drastically. This study focuses on forecasting coffee brown-eye spot using various models that incorporate agrometeorological data, allowing for predictions at least 1 week prior to the occurrence of disease. Data were gathered from eight locations across São Paulo and Minas Gerais, encompassing the South and Cerrado regions of Minas Gerais state. In the initial phase, various machine learning (ML) models and topologies were calibrated to forecast brown-eye spot, identifying one with potential for advanced decision-making. The top-performing models were then employed in the next stage to forecast and spatially project the severity of brown-eye spot across 2681 key Brazilian coffee-producing municipalities. Meteorological data were sourced from NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform, and the Penman-Monteith method was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, leading to a Thornthwaite and Mather water-balance calculation. Six ML models - K-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and gradient boosting regression (GradBOOSTING) - were employed, considering disease latency to time define input variables. RESULTS: These models utilized climatic elements such as average air temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. The XGBoost model proved most effective in high-yielding conditions, demonstrating high precision and accuracy. Conversely, the SVM model excelled in low-yielding scenarios. The incidence of brown-eye spot varied noticeably between high- and low-yield conditions, with significant regional differences observed. The accuracy of predicting brown-eye spot severity in coffee plantations depended on the biennial production cycle. High-yielding trees showed superior results with the XGBoost model (R2 = 0.77, root mean squared error, RMSE = 10.53), whereas the SVM model performed better under low-yielding conditions (precision 0.76, RMSE = 12.82). CONCLUSION: The study's application of agrometeorological variables and ML models successfully predicted the incidence of brown-eye spot in coffee plantations with a 7 day lead time, illustrating that they were valuable tools for managing this significant agricultural challenge. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Agroclimatic mapping for olive cultivation in Brazil: pinpointing optimal growing regions.

BACKGROUND: This research aimed to identify the agroclimatic zones in Brazil, excluding Rio Grande do Sul, that are suitable for olive (Olea europaea L.) cultivation, considering both climatic and topographical factors. Olives require specific conditions: moderate winter temperatures (7-15 °C), warmer summers (25-35 °C) and sufficient water during growth and fruit maturation. They can endure some drought, making them a viable option for agricultural diversification. Using daily meteorological data from 1989 to 2023 from NASA-POWER, this study analyzed variables like air temperature (minimum and maximum) and rainfall. Key climate variables were the mean air temperature in winter (T_w), spring (T_s), summer (T_su) and autumn (T_a) and total annual precipitation (Prec). Criteria for suitability included: T_w between 5 and 20 °C, T_s between 15 and 23 °C, T_su between 15 and 30 °C, T_a between 15 and 22 °C, annual precipitation over 900 mm and altitude below 900 m. Geographic information system software and Python 3.8 were employed for data analysis and zoning. RESULTS: Results indicated that only 1.92% of the analyzed area, mainly in Minas Gerais, was suitable for olive cultivation. High temperatures and low rainfall in Brazil, particularly in the North and Midwest, make 59.56% of the country unsuitable for olive farming. Additionally, 18.58% of the land, mainly in the Northeast, faces challenges due to extreme heat (T_w) and insufficient water supply. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC-CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Matrix images at a depth of 5-15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to construct the maps. RESULTS: Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature TAIR was between 20 and 29 °C, annual rainfall RANNUAL between 1200 and 1900 mm, and soil clay content CSOIL between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory. CONCLUSION: The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones; that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5-2070 (2061-2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Coffee pest severity by agrometeorological models in subtropical climate.

This study aimed to estimate the number of generations and cycle duration of the southern red mite, coffee berry borer, and coffee leaf miner using the thermal index to assist in controlling these main coffee pests in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The data of maximum and minimum air temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm) of all municipalities in the state from 1984 to 2018 were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the (Camargo Campinas IAC Boletim 116:9, 1971) method and the water balance was calculated using the method of ( Thornthwaite C, Mather J (1955) The water balance publications in climatology, 8 (1). DIT, Laboratory of climatology, Centerton, NJ, USA). The basal temperature of each pest minus the average temperature of the years was used to calculate the degrees-day, the duration of the pest cycle, and the number of generations per year. The influence of altitude on the development of coffee pests was measured using the Pearson correlation. The thermal index is able to estimate the damage caused by coffee pests in the state of Pará, Brazil. Coffee pests show greater severity in the north of Paraná, in the regions with the highest temperatures. It is the same region that concentrates most of the coffee production of the state. The results of the life cycle and number of generations were interpolated for the entire state using the kriging method. Coffee pests showed the highest severity in the north region of the state of Paraná, more specifically in the Northwest, North Central, and West Central mesoregions. These regions have concentrated most of the state's coffee production. Mesoregions with the highest coffee production in the state showed higher susceptibility to coffee pests. Altitude showed a high correlation (r > 0.6) with the cycle variability and number of generations of coffee pests. The average cycles of the coffee berry borer, coffee leaf miner, and southern red mite are 24.13 (± 8.34), 45.64 (± 18.61), and 21.51 (± 3.51) days, respectively. The average annual generation was 16.67 (± 4.77), 9.02 (± 2.75), and 17.32 (± 2.63) generations, for the coffee berry borer, the coffee red mite, and the southern red mite, respectively.

Can nonlinear agrometeorological models estimate coffee foliation?

BACKGROUND: The loss of coffee leaves caused by the attack of pests and diseases significantly reduces its production and bean quality. Thus this study aimed to estimate foliation for regions with the highest production of arabica coffee in Brazil using nonlinear models as a function of climate. A 25-year historical series (1995-2019) of Coffea arabica foliation (%) data was obtained by the Procafé Foundation in cultivations with no phytosanitary treatment. The climate data were obtained on a daily scale by NASA/POWER platform with a temporal resolution of 33 years (1987-2019) and a spatial resolution of approximately 106 km, thus allowing the calculation of the reference evapotranspiration (PET). Foliation estimation models were adjusted through regression analysis using four-parameter sigmoidal logistic models. The analysis of the foliation trend of coffee plantations was carried out from degrees-day for 70 locations. RESULTS: The general model calibrated to estimate the arabica coffee foliation was accurate (mean absolute percentage error = 2.19%) and precise (R2 adj  = 0.99) and can be used to assist decision-making by coffee growers. The model had a sigmoidal trend of reduction, with parameters ymax  = 97.63%, ymin  = 9%, Xo  = 3517.41 DD, and p = 6.27%, showing that foliation could reach 0.009% if the necessary phytosanitary controls are not carried out. CONCLUSION: Locations with high air temperatures over the year had low arabica coffee foliation, as shown by the correlation of -0.94. Therefore, coffee foliation can be estimated using degree days with accuracy and precision through the air temperature. This represents great convenience because crop foliation can be obtained using only a thermometer. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate risk to peanut cultivation in Brazil across different planting seasons.

BACKGROUND: Peanuts are widely grown in Brazil because of their great importance in the domestic vegetable oil industry and the succession of sugarcane, soybean and maize crops, contributing to soil conservation and improvement in agricultural areas. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the zoning of peanuts' climatic risk by estimating the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for the crop in Brazil. We used a historical series of data on average air temperature and rainfall between 1980 and 2016. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the method of Thornthwaite, and we subsequently calculated crop evapotranspiration and maximum evapotranspiration. Water balances for all stations were calculated using the method of Thornthwaite and Mather, with an available water capacity in the soil of 15, 30 and 45 mm. The definitions of suitable, unfit and restricted areas and the planting season were performed using the WRSI. RESULTS: Brazil has low climatic risk areas for growing peanuts throughout the year, except for winter. The country reveals that 88.19%, 97.93%, 99.16% and 39.25% of its area is suitable for planting peanuts on planting dates in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: Brazil has a large part of the areas favorable to the planting of peanuts. The maximum availability of soil water at a depth of 15, 30 and 45 mm does not influence regions with respect to peanut growing in Brazil. The states of Piauí, Ceará and Bahia are the most unsuitable on the winter planting date, with an average WRSI of 0.22. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Models for simulating the frequency of pests and diseases of Coffea arabica L.

We developed models for simulating trends over time as functions of the thermal index and models for estimating the levels of infestation of the coffee leaf miner and coffee berry borer and the severity of disease for coffee leaf rust and cercospora, the main phytosanitary problems in coffee crops around the world. We used historical series of climatic data and levels of pest infestation and disease severity in Coffea arabica for high and low yields for seven locations in the two main coffee-producing regions in the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil, Sul de Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro. We conducted two analyses: (a) we simulated the trends of the progress of diseases and pests over time using non-linear models. We only used the thermal index because air temperature is commonly measured by farmers in the regions. (b) We estimated the levels of pest infestation and disease severity using multiple linear regression, with the levels of diseases and pests as dependent variables and accumulated degree days (DD), coffee foliage (LF) estimated by DD and the number of nodes (NN) estimated by DD as independent variables. We used DD and LF = f (DD) and NN = f (DD) to predict diseases and pests with accuracy. MAPEs were 19.6, 5.7, 9.5, and 15.8% for rust, cercospora, leaf miner, and berry borer, respectively, for Sul de Minas Gerais. Establishing phytosanitary alerts using only air temperature was possible with these models.

Machine learning algorithms for forecasting the incidence of Coffea arabica pests and diseases.

Disease and pest alert models are able to generate information for agrochemical applications only when needed, reducing costs and environmental impacts. With machine learning algorithms, it is possible to develop models to be used in disease and pest warning systems as a function of the weather in order to improve the efficiency of chemical control of pests of the coffee tree. Thus, we correlated the infection rates with the weather variables and also calibrated and tested machine learning algorithms to predict the incidence of coffee rust, cercospora, coffee miner, and coffee borer. We used weather and field data obtained from coffee plantations in production in the southern regions of the State of Minas Gerais (SOMG) and from the region of the Cerrado Mineiro; these crops did not receive phytosanitary treatments. The algorithms calibrated and tested for prediction were (a) Multiple linear regression (RLM); (b) K Neighbors Regressor (KNN); (c) Random Forest Regressor (RFT), and (d) Artificial Neural Networks (MLP). As dependent variables, we considered the monthly rates of coffee rust, cercospora, coffee miner, and coffee tree borer, and the weather elements were considered as independent (predictor) variables. Pearson correlation analyses were performed considering three different time periods, 1-10 d (from 1 to 10 days before the incidence evaluation), 11-20 d, and 21-30 d, and used to evaluate the unit correlations between the weather variables and infection rates of coffee diseases and pests. The models were calibrated in years of high and low yields, because the biannual variation of harvest yield of coffee beans influences the severity of the diseases. The models were compared by the Willmott's 'd', RMSE (root mean square error), and coefficient of determination (R2) indices. The result of the more accurate algorithm was specialized for the SOMG and Cerrado Mineiro regions using the kriging method. The weather variables that showed significant correlations with coffee rust disease were maximum air temperature, number of days with relative humidity above 80%, and relative humidity. RFT was more accurate in the prediction of coffee rust, cercospora, coffee miner, and coffee borer using weather conditions. In the SOMG, RFT showed a greater accuracy in the predictions for the Cerrado Mineiro in years of high and low yields and for all diseases. In SOMG, the RMSE values ranged from 0.227 to 0.853 for high-yield and 0.147 and 0.827 for low-yield coffee in the coffee borer forecasting.

Agrometeorological models to forecast açaí (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) yield in the Eastern Amazon.

BACKGROUND: The increasing demand in Brazil and the world for products derived from the açaí palm (Euterpe oleracea Mart) has generated changes in its production process, principally due to the necessity of maintaining yield in situations of seasonality and climate fluctuation. The objective of this study was to estimate açaí fruit yield in irrigated system (IRRS) and rainfed system or unirrigated (RAINF) using agrometeorological models in response to climate conditions in the eastern Amazon. Modeling was done using multiple linear regression using the 'stepwise forward' method of variable selection. Monthly air temperature (T) values, solar radiation (SR), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation + irrigation (P + I), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in six phenological phases were correlated with yield. The thermal necessity value was calculated through the sum of accumulated degree days (ADD) up to the formation of fruit bunch, as well as the time necessary for initial leaf development, using a base temperature of 10 °C. RESULTS: The most important meteorological variables were T, SR, and VPD for IRRS, and for RAINF water stress had the greatest effect. The accuracy of the agrometeorological models, using maximum values for mean absolute percent error (MAPE), was 0.01 in the IRRS and 1.12 in the RAINF. CONCLUSION: Using these models yield was predicted approximately 6 to 9 months before the harvest, in April, May, November, and December in the IRRS, and January, May, June, August, September, and November for the RAINF. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Maturation periods for Coffea arabica cultivars and their implications for yield and quality in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Climatic conditions directly affect the maturation period of coffee plantations, affecting yield and beverage quality. The quality of coffee beverages is highly correlated with the length of fruit maturation, which is strongly influenced by meteorological elements. The objective was to estimate the probable times of graining and maturation of the main coffee varieties in Brazil and to quantify the influences of climate on coffee maturation. We used degree days to estimate flowering/graining periods (green fruit) and flowering/maturation periods (cherry fruit) for all cultivars. We evaluated the influence of climate on the time of maturity using Pearson correlation and nonlinear regression analysis and successfully mapped the influences of these elements. RESULTS: Arabica coffee matured up to 2-3 months earlier in São Paulo, where air temperatures (TAIR ) were higher, than in Minas Gerais, which would allow earlier harvesting and the training of seedlings at the beginning of the rainy season. Catuaí-Amarelo-IAC-62 cultivar needed 205-226 days between the end of flowering and maturation at locations with high TAIR and 375-396 days at locations with low TAIR . CONCLUSION: Water surplus and deficit were generally the most important variables for coffee maturation. Coffee matured faster in regions with high TAIR and evapotranspiration, moderate altitudes and deficits. Acaiá-Cerrado-MG-1474 and Icatu-Precoce-Amarelo-3282 were cultivars with an early cycle. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climatic potential for summer and winter wine production.

BACKGROUND: The geoviticultural multicriteria climatic classification (MCC) system provides an efficient guide for assessing the influence of climate on wine varieties. Paraná is one of the three states in southern Brazil that has great potential for the expansion of wine production, mainly due to the conditions that favour two harvests a year. The objective was to apply the geoviticultural MCC system in two production seasons. We used maximum, mean and minimum air temperature and precipitation for 1990-2015 for the state of Paraná. Air temperature and Precipitation were used to calculate the evapotranspiration and water balance. We applied the MCC system to identify potential areas for grapevine production for harvests in both summer and winter and then determined the climatic zones for each geoviticultural climate. RESULTS: Paraná has viticultural climates with conditions favourable for grapevine cultivation for the production of fine wines from summer and winter harvests. The conditions for the winter harvest provided wines with good coloration and high aromatic potential relative to the summer harvest. CONCLUSION: Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were suitable for regions with lower air temperatures and water deficits. Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were typical for the southern region of Paraná. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.