Performance of High Mobility Protein Group 1 and Interleukin-6 as Predictors of Outcomes Resulting from Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

Variceal bleeding is a serious complication in cirrhotic patients and is related to increased expression of inflammatory mediators that accentuate circulatory dysfunction. The study aims to evaluate the performance of high mobility protein group 1 (HMG1) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) as predictors of acute kidney injury (AKI), infection and death in these patients. Fifty patients who were diagnosed with advanced chronic liver disease with variceal bleeding were included. The mean age was 52.8 ± 10.8 years, and 33 (66%) were male. Twenty-one (42%) patients were classified as Child-Pugh C, 21 (42%) Child-Pugh B and 8 (16%) Child-Pugh A. The mean HMG1 serum level was 2872.36 pg/mL ± 2491.94, and the median IL-6 serum level was 47.26 pg/mL (0-1102.4). In AKI, the serum level of HMG1 that performed best on the ROC curve was 3317.9 pg/mL. The IL-6 serum level was not associated with AKI. HMG1 and IL-6 cut-off values that better predicted infection were 3317.9 pg/mL and 72.9 pg/mL, and for mortality, the values were 2668 pg/mL and 84.5 pg/mL, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the variables that were associated with AKI and infection outcomes were model for end-stage liver disease and HMG1. Infections were related to the risk of death. Clinical and laboratory variables related to the outcomes were identified. Serum levels of HMG1 were associated with AKI and infection and had good performance in the ROC curve. IL-6 levels were not maintained in logistic regression outcomes but had good performance in infection and death outcomes. Such data will be useful for comparisons and possible future validations.

Evaluation of the Biomarkers HMGB1 and IL-6 as Predictors of Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) affects from 20% to 50% of cirrhotic patients, and the one-month mortality rate is 60%. The main cause of AKI is bacterial infection, which worsens circulatory dysfunction through the release of HMGB1 and IL-6. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate HMGB1 and IL-6 as biomarkers of morbidity/mortality. METHODS: Prospective, observational study of 25 hospitalised cirrhotic patients with AKI. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at the time of diagnosis of AKI, including serum HMGB1 and IL-6. RESULTS: The mean age was 55 years; 70% were male. Infections accounted for 13 cases. The 30-day and three-month mortality rates were 17.4% and 30.4%, respectively. HMGB1 levels were lower in survivors than in nonsurvivors at 30 days (1174.2 pg/mL versus 3338.5 pg/mL, p = 0.035), but not at three months (1540 pg/mL versus 2352 pg/mL, p = 0.243). Serum IL-6 levels were 43.3 pg/mL versus 153.3 pg/mL (p = 0.061) at 30 days and 35.8 pg/mL versus 87.9 pg/mL (p = 0.071) at three months, respectively. The area under the ROC curve for HMGB1 was 0.842 and 0.657, and that for IL-6 was 0.803 and 0.743 for discriminating nonsurvivors at 30 days and three months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, no biomarker was independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: HMGB1 levels were associated with decreased survival in cirrhotics. Larger studies are needed to confirm our results.