Development and validation of a Bayesian survival model for inclusion body myositis.

BACKGROUND: Associations between disease characteristics and payer-relevant outcomes can be difficult to establish for rare and progressive chronic diseases with sparse available data. We developed an exploratory bridging model to predict premature mortality from disease characteristics, and using inclusion body myositis (IBM) as a representative case study. METHODS: Candidate variables that may be potentially associated with premature mortality were identified by disease experts and from the IBM literature. Interdependency between candidate variables in IBM patients were assessed using existing patient-level data. A Bayesian survival model for the IBM population was developed with identified variables as predictors for premature mortality in the model. For model selection and external validation, model predictions were compared to published mortality data in IBM patient cohorts. After validation, the final model was used to simulate the increased risk of premature death in IBM patients. Baseline survival was based on age- and gender-specific survival curves for the general population in Western countries as reported by the World Health Organisation. RESULTS: Presence of dysphagia, aspiration pneumonia, falls, being wheelchair-bound and 6-min walking distance (6MWD in meters) were identified as candidate variables to be used as predictors for premature mortality based on inputs received from disease experts and literature. There was limited correlation between these functional performance measures, which were therefore treated as independent variables in the model. Based on the Bayesian survival model, among all candidate variables, presence of dysphagia and decrease in 6MWD [m] were associated with poorer survival with contributing hazard ratios (HR) 1.61 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.84-3.50) and 2.48 (95% CrI: 1.27-5.00) respectively. Excess mortality simulated in an IBM cohort vs. an age- and gender matched general-population cohort was 4.03 (95% prediction interval 1.37-10.61). CONCLUSIONS: For IBM patients, results suggest an increased risk of premature death compared with the general population of the same age and gender. In the absence of hard data, bridging modelling generated survival predictions by combining relevant information. The methodological principle would be applicable to the analysis of associations between disease characteristics and payer-relevant outcomes in progressive chronic and rare diseases. Studies with lifetime follow-up would be needed to confirm the modelling results.

Safety and efficacy of intravenous bimagrumab in inclusion body myositis (RESILIENT): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2b trial.

BACKGROUND: Inclusion body myositis is an idiopathic inflammatory myopathy and the most common myopathy affecting people older than 50 years. To date, there are no effective drug treatments. We aimed to assess the safety, efficacy, and tolerability of bimagrumab-a fully human monoclonal antibody-in individuals with inclusion body myositis. METHODS: We did a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (RESILIENT) at 38 academic clinical sites in Australia, Europe, Japan, and the USA. Individuals (aged 36-85 years) were eligible for the study if they met modified 2010 Medical Research Council criteria for inclusion body myositis. We randomly assigned participants (1:1:1:1) using a blocked randomisation schedule (block size of four) to either bimagrumab (10 mg/kg, 3 mg/kg, or 1 mg/kg) or placebo matched in appearance to bimagrumab, administered as intravenous infusions every 4 weeks for at least 48 weeks. All study participants, the funder, investigators, site personnel, and people doing assessments were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome measure was 6-min walking distance (6MWD), which was assessed at week 52 in the primary analysis population and analysed by intention-to-treat principles. We used a multivariate normal repeated measures model to analyse data for 6MWD. Safety was assessed by recording adverse events and by electrocardiography, echocardiography, haematological testing, urinalysis, and blood chemistry. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01925209; this report represents the final analysis. FINDINGS: Between Sept 26, 2013, and Jan 6, 2016, 251 participants were enrolled to the study, of whom 63 were assigned to each bimagrumab group and 62 were allocated to the placebo group. At week 52, 6MWD change from baseline did not differ between any bimagrumab dose and placebo (least squares mean treatment difference for bimagrumab 10 mg/kg group, 17·6 m, SE 14·3, 99% CI -19·6 to 54·8; p=0·22; for 3 mg/kg group, 18·6 m, 14·2, -18·2 to 55·4; p=0·19; and for 1 mg/kg group, -1·3 m, 14·1, -38·0 to 35·4; p=0·93). 63 (100%) participants in each bimagrumab group and 61 (98%) of 62 in the placebo group had at least one adverse event. Falls were the most frequent adverse event (48 [76%] in the bimagrumab 10 mg/kg group, 55 [87%] in the 3 mg/kg group, 54 [86%] in the 1 mg/kg group, and 52 [84%] in the placebo group). The most frequently reported adverse events with bimagrumab were muscle spasms (32 [51%] in the bimagrumab 10 mg/kg group, 43 [68%] in the 3 mg/kg group, 25 [40%] in the 1 mg/kg group, and 13 [21%] in the placebo group) and diarrhoea (33 [52%], 28 [44%], 20 [32%], and 11 [18%], respectively). Adverse events leading to discontinuation were reported in four (6%) participants in each bimagrumab group compared with one (2%) participant in the placebo group. At least one serious adverse event was reported by 21 (33%) participants in the 10 mg/kg group, 11 (17%) in the 3 mg/kg group, 20 (32%) in the 1 mg/kg group, and 20 (32%) in the placebo group. No significant adverse cardiac effects were recorded on electrocardiography or echocardiography. Two deaths were reported during the study, one attributable to subendocardial myocardial infarction (secondary to gastrointestinal bleeding after an intentional overdose of concomitant sedatives and antidepressants) and one attributable to lung adenocarcinoma. Neither death was considered by the investigator to be related to bimagrumab. INTERPRETATION: Bimagrumab showed a good safety profile, relative to placebo, in individuals with inclusion body myositis but did not improve 6MWD. The strengths of our study are that, to the best of our knowledge, it is the largest randomised controlled trial done in people with inclusion body myositis, and it provides important natural history data over 12 months. FUNDING: Novartis Pharma.

Secukinumab is Superior to Ustekinumab in Clearing Skin in Patients with Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis (16-Week CLARITY Results).

INTRODUCTION: Secukinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-17A monoclonal antibody, has demonstrated superior efficacy to ustekinumab in the phase 3b CLEAR study of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. Here, we report 16-week results from CLARITY, a second head-to-head trial comparing secukinumab with ustekinumab. METHODS: In the phase 3b CLARITY study, patients were randomized 1:1 to receive subcutaneous secukinumab 300 mg or ustekinumab per label. The co-primary objectives were to demonstrate the superiority of secukinumab over ustekinumab at Week 12 in relation to the proportion of patients with (1) 90% or more improvement from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 90) and (2) a score of 0/1 (clear/almost clear) on the modified Investigator's Global Assessment (IGA mod 2011 0/1). Key secondary objectives were also assessed, as was Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) 0/1 (no impact of skin disease on patients' quality of life) response. Missing values were handled by multiple imputation except for DLQI 0/1, where last observation carried forward techniques were utilized. RESULTS: Both co-primary objectives were met: secukinumab was superior to ustekinumab for the proportion of patients achieving a PASI 90 (66.5% vs. 47.9%) and IGA mod 2011 0/1 response (72.3% vs. 55.4%) at Week 12 (p < 0.0001). PASI 90 responses were greater with secukinumab compared to ustekinumab from as early as Week 4 (16.7% vs. 4.0%) and out to Week 16 (76.6% vs. 54.2%). Similarly, IGA mod 2011 0/1 findings were greater with secukinumab at Week 4 (26.9% vs. 7.8%) and at Week 16 (78.6% vs. 59.1%). DLQI 0/1 response rates were also greater with secukinumab compared to ustekinumab at Week 4 (33.9% vs. 18.0%), Week 12 (64.0% vs. 51.7%), and Week 16 (68.4% vs. 55.9%). CONCLUSION: The results of this study confirm the superior efficacy of secukinumab over ustekinumab in treating patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier, NCT02826603. FUNDING: Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.

Long-term results from a phase 2 extension study of fingolimod at high and approved dose in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Fingolimod safety and efficacy data in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are available up to 5 years, from an extension of a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 study, at a dose higher (5.0/1.25 mg) than the approved dose of 0.5 mg. The objective of the study is to present the end-of-study data (>7 years) from the open-label extension of the phase 2 study. In the core phase (6 months), patients (N = 281) were randomized to placebo or fingolimod 1.25/5 mg. In the extension, placebo patients were randomized to fingolimod 1.25/5 mg. All patients received open-label 1.25 mg fingolimod after month 24 and 0.5 mg after month 60. Clinical visits were performed every 3 months, expanded disability status scale (EDSS) every 6 months and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) annually. 122 (48.8%) patients completed the extension study; overall fingolimod exposure was 1230.7 patient-years. The most common (>10%) reasons for study discontinuation were adverse events (19.6%) and consent withdrawal (16.4%). Fingolimod treatment for >7 years was associated with sustained low clinical and MRI disease activity. Over 60% of patients remained relapse free and about 80% were free from any MRI activity. Overall annualized relapse rate was 0.18. Long-term fingolimod treatment was not associated with new safety concerns. Long-term fingolimod was well tolerated and associated with a sustained low level of disease activity.

Correlation between brain volume loss and clinical and MRI outcomes in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the determinants and clinical correlations of MRI-detected brain volume loss (BVL) among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from the phase 3 trials of fingolimod: FREEDOMS, FREEDOMS II, and TRANSFORMS. METHODS: Post hoc analyses were conducted in the intent-to-treat populations from each trial and in a combined dataset of 3,635 patients from the trials and their extensions. The relationship between brain volume changes and demographic, clinical, and MRI parameters was studied in pairwise correlations (Pearson) and in multiple regression models. The relative frequency of confirmed disability progression was evaluated in the combined dataset by strata of concurrent BVL at up to 4 years. RESULTS: Increasing age, disease duration, T2 lesion volume, T1-hypointense lesion volume, and disability were associated with reduced brain volume (p < 0.001, all). The strongest individual baseline predictors of on-study BVL were T2 lesion volume, gadolinium-enhancing lesion count, and T1-hypointense lesion volume (p < 0.01, all). During each study, BVL correlated most strongly with cumulative gadolinium-enhancing lesion count, new/enlarged T2 lesion count (p < 0.001, both), and number of confirmed on-study relapses (p < 0.01). Over 4 years in the combined dataset (mean exposure to study drug, 2.4 years), confirmed disability progression was most frequent in patients with greatest BVL. CONCLUSIONS: Rate of BVL in patients during the fingolimod trials correlated with disease severity at baseline and new disease activity on study, and was associated with worsening disability.

The influence of patient demographics, disease characteristics and treatment on brain volume loss in Trial Assessing Injectable Interferon vs FTY720 Oral in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (TRANSFORMS), a phase 3 study of fingolimod in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) lose brain volume (BV) faster than healthy individuals. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose, within the 12-month phase 3 TRANSFORMS study, was to examine the effect of treatment on BV loss in patient subgroups, establish correlations between baseline normalized BV (NBV) and baseline disease parameters, to identify variables predictive of baseline NBV and on-study percentage BV change (PBVC), and to establish correlations between on-study PBVC and on-study efficacy outcomes. METHODS: Patients received fingolimod 0.5 mg or 1.25 mg, or intramuscular (IM) interferon ß-1a (IFNß-1a) for 12 months. The effect of treatment on PBVC was examined in patient demographic, disease and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristic subgroups. Pearson's correlation analyses and a stepwise linear regression model were used to identify variables predictive of NBV and PBVC. RESULTS: Fingolimod reduced BV loss over 12 months versus IFNß-1a IM in all patient subgroups assessed, including individuals with or without gadolinium (Gd)-enhancing lesions at baseline. Baseline T1 hypointense lesion volume had the strongest correlation with baseline NBV. Baseline Gd-enhancing T1 lesion count was most predictive of change in PBVC over 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our results improve understanding of the contributions of different baseline demographic, clinical and MRI characteristics to NBV, including factors that may be predictive of future BV loss.

Fingolimod in relapsing multiple sclerosis: An integrated analysis of safety findings.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod 0.5mg once daily is the first approved oral therapy for relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To report integrated long-term safety data from phase 2/3 fingolimod studies. METHODS: Descriptive safety data are reported from the FTY720 Research Evaluating Effects of Daily Oral Therapy in Multiple Sclerosis (FREEDOMS) study, a 24-month, randomized, double-blind study comparing fingolimod 0.5mg and 1.25mg with placebo, and an All Studies group (patients who received fingolimod 0.5mg (n=1640) or 1.25-0.5mg (n=1776) in phase 2/3 studies and associated extensions). Relevant post-marketing experience, up to December 2011, is included. RESULTS: The incidence of adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs (SAEs) was similar with fingolimod and placebo in FREEDOMS. In the All Studies group, fingolimod 0.5mg was associated with transient, rarely symptomatic (0.5%), bradycardia and second-degree atrioventricular block on treatment initiation, minor blood pressure increases, frequent (9%) but generally asymptomatic liver enzyme elevations, and macular oedema (0.4%). The incidences of infections (including serious and herpes infections), malignancies, SAEs and treatment discontinuations due to AEs were similar with fingolimod 0.5mg and placebo. CONCLUSION: The safety profile of fingolimod has been well characterized in this large combined trial population. Although infrequent SAEs can occur, there is no increased risk of infections, malignancies or serious cardiovascular events versus placebo.

Impact of fingolimod therapy on magnetic resonance imaging outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of fingolimod (FTY720) therapy on magnetic resonance imaging measures of inflammatory activity and tissue damage in patients participating in a 2-year, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study. DESIGN: Patients with active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis were randomized to receive fingolimod, 0.5 mg; fingolimod, 1.25 mg; or placebo for 2 years. Standardized magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained at months 0, 6, 12, and 24 and centrally evaluated for number and volume of T1 gadolinium-enhancing, T2 hyperintense, and T1 hypointense lesions and for percentage of brain volume change. Findings were compared across subgroups by treatment and baseline characteristics. SETTING: Worldwide, multicenter clinical trial. PATIENTS: Patients were part of the fingolimod FTY720 Research Evaluating Effects of Daily Oral Therapy in Multiple Sclerosis (FREEDOMS) clinical trial for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (N=1272). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured the effect of therapy on acute inflammatory activity, burden of disease, and irreversible loss of brain volume. RESULTS: Fingolimod therapy resulted in rapid and sustained reductions in inflammatory lesion activity as assessed by gadolinium-enhancing and new/newly enlarged T2 lesions after 6, 12, and 24 months of therapy (P.001, all comparisons vs placebo). Changes in T2 hyperintense and T1 hypointense lesion volume also significantly favored fingolimod (P.05, all comparisons). Fingolimod, 0.5 mg (licensed dose), significantly reduced brain volume loss during months 0 to 6, 0 to 12, 12 to 24, and 0 to 24 (P.05, all comparisons) vs placebo, and subgroup analyses confirmed these effects over 2 years irrespective of the presence/absence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions, T2 lesion load, previous treatment status, or level of disability. CONCLUSION: These results, coupled with the significant reductions in relapse rates and disability progression reported previously, support the positive impact on long-term disease evolution. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00289978

Oral fingolimod or intramuscular interferon for relapsing multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod (FTY720), a sphingosine-1-phosphate-receptor modulator that prevents lymphocyte egress from lymph nodes, showed clinical efficacy and improvement on imaging in a phase 2 study involving patients with multiple sclerosis. METHODS: In this 12-month, double-blind, double-dummy study, we randomly assigned 1292 patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who had a recent history of at least one relapse to receive either oral fingolimod at a daily dose of either 1.25 or 0.5 mg or intramuscular interferon beta-1a (an established therapy for multiple sclerosis) at a weekly dose of 30 microg. The primary end point was the annualized relapse rate. Key secondary end points were the number of new or enlarged lesions on T(2)-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans at 12 months and progression of disability that was sustained for at least 3 months. RESULTS: A total of 1153 patients (89%) completed the study. The annualized relapse rate was significantly lower in both groups receiving fingolimod--0.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.26) in the 1.25-mg group and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.12 to 0.21) in the 0.5-mg group--than in the interferon group (0.33; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.42; P<0.001 for both comparisons). MRI findings supported the primary results. No significant differences were seen among the study groups with respect to progression of disability. Two fatal infections occurred in the group that received the 1.25-mg dose of fingolimod: disseminated primary varicella zoster and herpes simplex encephalitis. Other adverse events among patients receiving fingolimod were nonfatal herpesvirus infections, bradycardia and atrioventricular block, hypertension, macular edema, skin cancer, and elevated liver-enzyme levels. CONCLUSIONS: This trial showed the superior efficacy of oral fingolimod with respect to relapse rates and MRI outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis, as compared with intramuscular interferon beta-1a. Longer studies are needed to assess the safety and efficacy of treatment beyond 1 year. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00340834.)