Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Activity and safety of topical pimecrolimus in patients with early stage mycosis fungoides (PimTo-MF): a single-arm, multicentre, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The calcineurin pathway is often activated in mycosis fungoides. We aimed to assess the activity and safety of topical pimecrolimus, a calcineurin inhibitor, in patients with early mycosis fungoides. METHODS: PimTo-MF was a single-arm, multicentre, phase 2 trial done at six medical centres in Spain. Patients (aged ≥18 years) had histologically confirmed early mycosis fungoides (stages IA-IIA) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1. Key exclusion criteria included the use of concurrent treatments for mycosis fungoides, including sunbathing, topical or systemic corticosteroids, and other calcineurin inhibitors. Patients applied topical pimecrolimus 1% cream on their skin lesions twice daily for 16 weeks (1 g per 2% of body surface), with subsequent follow-up of 12 months. Dosage modifications were not allowed. To evaluate adherence to the treatment, patients were instructed to return all empty tubes to the hospital (as per drug accountability protocols). The primary endpoint was the overall response ratein the intention-to-treat population. PimTo-MF is registered with EudraCT, 2014-001377-14, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2015, and Sept 30, 2016, 39 patients were enrolled. All patients were assessable, with a median age of 51·5 years (IQR 45-62), and the population was predominantly male (24 male [62%], 15 female [38%]). Median follow-up after baseline was 5·7 years (IQR 5·7-6·2). 22 (56%) of 39 patients had an overall response (one complete response, 21 partial responses). Responses were observed across IA (14 [54%] of 26 patients) and IB (eight [73%] of 11 patients) clinical stages, but not IIA. Topical pimecrolimus was well tolerated and no patient required a dose reduction or discontinued treatment because of unacceptable drug-related toxicity. No patients were lost to follow-up or discontinued treatment. 13 (33%) of 39 patients reported adverse events; transitory mild burning or pruritus (grade 1) was the most common, seen in eight (21%) patients. In three (8%) of these patients, the burning or pruritus was considered related to treatment. No grade 4 or 5 adverse events were observed. INTERPRETATION: Pimecrolimus 1% cream seems active and safe in patients with early stage mycosis fungoides. Our findings should be taken with caution until long-term follow-up data are obtained that confirm the safety of this treatment. Further controlled clinical trials are warranted to confirm these results. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III and the European Regional Development Fund. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Remote Monitoring of Treatment Response in Parkinson's Disease: The Habit of Typing on a Computer.

OBJECTIVE: The recent advances in technology are opening a new opportunity to remotely evaluate motor features in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). We hypothesized that typing on an electronic device, a habitual behavior facilitated by the nigrostriatal dopaminergic pathway, could allow for objectively and nonobtrusively monitoring parkinsonian features and response to medication in an at-home setting. METHODS: We enrolled 31 participants recently diagnosed with PD who were due to start dopaminergic treatment and 30 age-matched controls. We remotely monitored their typing pattern during a 6-month (24 weeks) follow-up period before and while dopaminergic medications were being titrated. The typing data were used to develop a novel algorithm based on recursive neural networks and detect participants' responses to medication. The latter were defined by the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-III (UPDRS-III) minimal clinically important difference. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the algorithm to predict the final response to medication as early as 21 weeks prior to the final 6-month clinical outcome. RESULTS: The score on the novel algorithm based on recursive neural networks had an overall moderate kappa agreement and fair area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the time-coincident UPDRS-III minimal clinically important difference. The participants classified as responders at the final visit (based on the UPDRS-III minimal clinically important difference) had higher scores on the novel algorithm based on recursive neural networks when compared with the participants with stable UPDRS-III, from the third week of the study onward. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study suggests that remotely gathered unsupervised typing data allows for the accurate detection and prediction of drug response in PD. © 2019 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and body mass index and 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer death, and overall mortality.

The effect of above-normal body mass index (BMI) on health outcomes is controversial because it is difficult to distinguish from the effect due to BMI-associated cardiovascular risk factors. The objective was to analyze the impact on 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer deaths and overall mortality of the interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and BMI. We conducted a pooled analysis of individual data from 12 Spanish population cohorts with 10-year follow-up. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular diseases and were 35-79years old at basal examination. Body mass index was measured at baseline being the outcome measures ten-year cardiovascular disease, cancer and overall mortality. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, considering the significant interactions with cardiovascular risk factors. We included 54,446 individuals (46.5% with overweight and 27.8% with obesity). After considering the significant interactions, the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in women with overweight and obesity [Hazard Ratio=2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-4.61) and 5.65 (1.54-20.73), respectively]. Overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death in women [3.98 (1.53-10.37) and 11.61 (1.93-69.72)]. Finally, obese men had an increased risk of cancer death and overall mortality [1.62 (1.03-2.54) and 1.34 (1.01-1.76), respectively]. In conclusion, overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death and of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in women; whereas obese men had a significantly higher risk of death for all causes and for cancer. Cardiovascular risk factors may act as effect modifiers in these associations.

Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis.

The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.

Derivation and validation of a set of 10-year cardiovascular risk predictive functions in Spain: the FRESCO Study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a set of functions to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and validate the Framingham-REGICOR function. METHOD: Pooled analysis of 11 population-based Spanish cohorts (1992-2005) with 50,408 eligible participants. Baseline smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), lipid profile, and body mass index were recorded. A ten-year follow-up included re-examinations/telephone contact and cross-linkage with mortality registries. For each sex, two models were fitted for CHD, stroke, and both end-points combined: model A was adjusted for age, smoking, and body mass index and model B for age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, and for hypertension treatment by SBP, and age by smoking and by SBP interactions. RESULTS: The 9.3-year median follow-up accumulated 2973 cardiovascular events. The C-statistic improved from model A to model B for CHD (0.66 to 0.71 for men; 0.70 to 0.74 for women) and the combined CHD-stroke end-points (0.68 to 0.71; 0.72 to 0.75, respectively), but not for stroke alone. Framingham-REGICOR had similar C-statistics but overestimated CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The new functions accurately estimate 10-year stroke and CHD risk in the adult population of a typical southern European country. The Framingham-REGICOR function provided similar CHD prediction but overestimated risk.

Role of biological and non biological factors in congestive heart failure mortality: PREDICE-SCORE: a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this project was to develop a clinical prediction model of biological and non biological factors in patients with first diagnosis of HF that facilitates the risk-stratification and decision-making process at the point of care. METHODS AND RESULTS: Historical cohort analysis of 600 patients attended at three tertiary hospitals and diagnosed of a first episode of HF according Framingham criteria. There were followed 1 year. We analyzed sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory data with potential prognostic value. The modelling process concluded into a logistic regression multivariable analysis and a predictive rule: PREDICE SCORE. Age, dependency for daily basic activities, creatinine clearance, sodium levels at admission and systolic dysfunction diagnosis (HF with left ventricular ejection fraction 〈 40%) were the selected variables. The model showed a c-statistic of 0.763. PREDICE Score, has range of 22 points to stratifications of 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The follow-up of 600 patients hospitalized by a first episode of congestive HF, allowed us to obtain a predictive 1 year mortality model from the combination of demographic data, routine biochemistry and easy handling social and functional variables at the point of care. The variables included were non-invasive, undemanding to collect, and widely available. It allows for risk stratification and therapeutical targeting and may help in the clinical decisions process in a sustainable way.

IgA antibodies against ß2 glycoprotein I in hemodialysis patients are an independent risk factor for mortality.

Cardiovascular complications are the most important cause of death in patients on dialysis with end-stage renal disease. Antibodies reacting with ß-glycoprotein I seem to play a pathogenic role in antiphospholipid syndrome and stroke and are involved in the origin of atherosclerosis. Here we evaluated the presence of anticardiolipin and anti-ß-glycoprotein I antibodies together with other vascular risk factors and their relationship with mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort of 124 hemodialysis patients prospectively followed for 2 years. Of these, 41 patients were significantly positive for IgA anti-ß-glycoprotein I, and the remaining had normal values. At 24 months, overall and cardiovascular mortality and thrombotic events were all significantly higher in patients with high anti-ß-glycoprotein I antibodies. Multivariate analysis using Cox regression modeling found that age, hypoalbuminemia, use of dialysis catheters, and IgA ß-glycoprotein I antibodies were independent risk factors for death. Thus, IgA antibodies to ß-glycoprotein I are detrimental to the clinical outcome of hemodialysis patients.

Risk of incident dementia in drug-untreated arterial hypertension: a population-based study.

Arterial hypertension in midlife may increase the risk of late-life dementia. Notably, there is conflicting data as to whether hypertension in the elderly (age 65 years and older) is a risk factor for dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). We determined whether drug-untreated hypertension was associated with a higher risk of incident dementia and AD. In a population-based study of older people in central Spain (NEDICES), non-demented participants were followed prospectively. Dementia at follow-up was diagnosed using DSM-IV criteria. Using Cox proportional hazards models, the risk of dementia was estimated in participants with drug-untreated hypertension and in participants with drug-treated hypertension versus controls. The 3,824 participants had a mean duration of follow-up of 3.2 years. Sixty-two (3.3%) of 1,870 participants without baseline hypertension developed incident dementia versus 78 (4.7%) of 1,657 with drug-treated, baseline hypertension and 19 (12.0%) with drug-untreated, baseline hypertension. In an unadjusted Cox model, risk of dementia was increased in participants with drug-untreated hypertension (relative risk [RR] =1.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.15­3.23, p = 0.01) and in participants with drug-treated hypertension (RR =1.43, 95% CI= 1.02­2.0, p =0.035) versus participants without hypertension (reference group). In a fully adjusted Cox model, the risk of dementia remained increased in participants with drug-untreated hypertension (RR =2.38, 95% CI =1.32­4.29, p=0.004). Results were similar for risk of AD. Our results suggest that drug-untreated hypertension may be an independent risk factor for dementia and AD in the elderly.

Seasonal and Pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccination coverage and attitudes among health-care workers in a Spanish University Hospital.

Influenza vaccination coverage among health-care workers (HCWs) remains the lowest compared with other priority groups for immunization. Little is known about the acceptability and compliance with the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccine among HCWs during the current campaign. Between 23 December 2009 and 13 January 2010, once the workplace vaccination program was over, we conducted a cross-sectional, questionnaire-based survey at the University Hospital 12 de Octubre (Madrid, Spain). Five hundred twenty-seven HCWs were asked about their influenza immunization history during the 2009-2010 season, as well as the reasons for accepting or declining either the seasonal or pandemic vaccines. Multiple logistic-regression analysis was preformed to identify variables associated with immunization acceptance. A total of 262 HCWs (49.7%) reported having received the seasonal vaccine, while only 87 (16.5%) affirmed having received the pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 vaccine. "Self-protection" and "protection of the patient" were the most frequently adduced reasons for acceptance of the pandemic vaccination, whereas the existence of "doubts about vaccine efficacy" and "fear of adverse reactions" were the main arguments for refusal. Simultaneous receipt of the seasonal vaccine (odds ratio [OR]: 0.27; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.14-0.52) and being a staff (OR: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) or a resident physician (OR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.05-0.50) emerged as independent predictors for pandemic vaccine acceptance, whereas self-reported membership of a priority group was associated with refusal (OR: 5.98; 95% CI: 1.35-26.5). The pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccination coverage among the HCWs in our institution was very low (16.5%), suggesting the role of specific attitudinal barriers and misconceptions about immunization in a global pandemic scenario.

[Socioeconomic factors and utilization of public family practice facilities in Madrid]. / Factores socioeconómicos y frecuentación en las consultas de medicina de familia de la red sanitaria pública madrileña.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the possible association between demographic, social and economic characteristics of health areas in the autonomous community of Madrid and utilization of public family practice facilities. METHODS: An ecological study was carried out using health areas as the unit of analysis. The information sources were official data on population statistics and the reports of the National Institute of Health for 1996 and 2001. Indicators were income, mean household size, unemployment rate, the percentage of housewives, and the percentage of individuals with university education. The association between these indicators and utilization of public family practice facilities was analyzed using the Spearman correlation coefficient. A multivariate linear regression model was also fitted. RESULTS: The consultation rate in public family practice facilities in Madrid was directly associated with the percentage of housewives (r = 0.44), income (r = -0,697), and the percentage of individuals with university education (r = -0.72). In the multivariate linear regression model, 77% of the varian-ce in utilization was explained by income (48%), the percentage of housewives (19%), and average household size (9%). CONCLUSIONS: The results show the relationship between social and economic factors and utilization of public family practice facilities and suggest the advisability of including demographic and socioeconomic factors in primary care planning.

Impact of diltiazem administration and cyclosporine levels on the incidence of acute rejection in heart transplant patients.

To identify the clinical factors associated with acute rejection (AR) in the first year after heart transplantation (HT), we analysed 112 patients. All patients received OKT3 and standard triple-drug therapy. We analysed the following variables to determine their relationship with AR: age and gender, panel-reactive antibodies, HLA-DR mismatch, use of Sandimmune vs Neoral, diltiazem administration, and cyclosporine levels in week 2 and months 1, 2, and 3 after HT. Fifty-two patients had no AR and 49 had at least one episode. The variables independently associated with absence of AR were diltiazem administration (odds ratio 0.306, confidence limit 0.102-0.921) and cyclosporine level in the first month after HT (odds ratio 0.996, confidence limit 0.992-0.999). Furthermore, a cyclosporine level greater than 362 ng/ml in the first month predicted the absence of AR. In conclusion, a cyclosporine level greater than 362 ng/ml and diltiazem administration in the first month after HT reduce AR during the first year. Both cyclosporine level and diltiazem show a large and independent protective effect.

Staging in lung cancer: is 3 cm a prognostic threshold in pathologic stage I non-small cell lung cancer? A multicenter study of 1,020 patients.

INTRODUCTION: Since 1974, a tumor size of 3 cm in diameter has been regarded as the prognostic threshold in the staging of bronchogenic carcinoma. OBJECTIVE: To study the prognostic behavior of surgical-pathologic tumor size in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with complete resection. DESIGN: Four-year multi-institutional prospective study from 1993 to 1997. PATIENTS: Consecutive cases of NSCLC in pathologic stages IA-IB (pIA-pIB) treated surgically with complete resection in hospitals belonging to the Bronchogenic Carcinoma Co-operative Group of the Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic Surgery (GCCB-S). METHODS: The Schoenfeld procedure was used to identify different prognostic groups, considering 1 cm as the measurement unit. RESULTS: Based on the 1,020 cases evaluated, four prognostic groups were identified: 0 to 2 cm (group A; n = 147), 2.1 to 4 cm (group B; n = 448), 4.1 to 7 cm (group C; n = 336), and > 7 cm (group D; n = 89). At 5 years, survival was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 0.68), 0.56 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.59), 0.49 (95% CI, 0.46 to 0.52), and 0.38 (95% CI, 0.32 to 0.44) for groups A, B, C, and D, respectively. Differences between paired groups (log-rank) were significant: 0.0074 between groups A and B, 0.0048 between groups B and C, and 0.0034 between groups C and D. CONCLUSIONS: In initial stages (pIA-pIB) of NSCLC, the 3-cm value was not found to behave as a prognostic threshold; in this study, four surgical-pathologic tumor size groups were identified with strong prognostic differences: from 0 to 2 cm, from 2.1 to 4 cm, from 4.1 to 7 cm, and > 7 cm.

The Spanish toxic oil syndrome 20 years after its onset: a multidisciplinary review of scientific knowledge.

In 1981, in Spain, the ingestion of an oil fraudulently sold as olive oil caused an outbreak of a previously unrecorded condition, later known as toxic oil syndrome (TOS), clinically characterized by intense incapacitating myalgias, marked peripheral eosinophilia, and pulmonary infiltrates. Of the 20,000 persons affected, approximately 300 died shortly after the onset of the disease and a larger number developed chronic disease. For more than 15 years, a scientific committee supported by the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe and by the Institute of Health Carlos III in Madrid has guided investigation intended to identify the causal agent(s), to assess toxicity and mode of action, to establish the pathogenesis of the disease, and to detect late consequences. This report summarizes advances in research on this front. No late mortality excess has been detected. Among survivors, the prevalence of some chronic conditions (e.g., sclerodermia, neurologic changes) is high. Attempts to reproduce the condition in laboratory animals have been unsuccessful, and no condition similar to TOS has been reported in the scientific literature. Laboratory findings suggest an autoimmune mechanism for TOS, such as high levels of seric soluble interleukin-2 receptor. Epidemiologic studies integrated with chemical analyses of case-related oils have shown that the disease is strongly associated with the consumption of oils containing fatty acid esters of 3-(N-phenylamino)-1,2-propanediol (PAP). These chemicals have also been found in oils synthesized under conditions simulating those hypothesized to have occurred when the toxic oil was produced in 1981. Whether PAP esters are simply markers of toxicity of oils or have the capability to induce the disease remains to be elucidated.