Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol--worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV.

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk "AMOUR" is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the "World Avoided," excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C-A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century. When compared with a "No Depletion" scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the "Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol" scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100-150, Congo: -10-0, Patagonia: 20-50, Western Europe: 30-40, China: 90-120, South-West USA: 80-110, Mediterranean: 90-100 and North-East Australia: 170-200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year.

Calculations of the human vitamin D exposure from UV spectral measurements at three European stations.

The health benefits of solar UVB and vitamin D in reducing the risk of cancer and several other diseases have been well documented in recent years. In this study, quality-checked spectral UV irradiance measurements from three European stations (Jokioinen, Finland; Bilthoven, The Netherlands; and Thessaloniki, Greece) are used and the vitamin D effective dose (VDED) is calculated. The maximum average daily VDED is measured during the second half of June and it is up to 250 times higher than the corresponding winter minimum value. At each site, a polynomial fit between the VDED and the erythemal dose rates is proposed. The average VDED rates at local noon exceed a detection threshold value for the cutaneous production of vitamin D at Thessaloniki and Bilthoven throughout the year. The proposed standard vitamin dose cannot be attained, even for skin types I-III and exposure time of 60 minutes around local noon, under physiological atmospheric conditions at Bilthoven and Jokioinen during 3 and 4 months respectively. The daily VDED values, using the CIE action spectrum, are higher from 2% and 8% during summer and winter respectively at all sites, compared with those derived by the action spectrum proposed by MacLaughlin et al. (Science, 1982, 216, 1001-1003). These differences are comparable with the uncertainty of spectral measurements.

Improving solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements by applying a temperature correction method for Teflon diffusers.

To establish trends in surface ultraviolet radiation levels, accurate and stable long-term measurements are required. The accuracy level of today's measurements has become high enough to notice even smaller effects that influence instrument sensitivity. Laboratory measurements of the sensitivity of the entrance optics have shown a decrease of as much as 0.07-0.1%/deg temperature increase. Since the entrance optics can heat to greater than 45 degrees C in Dutch summers, corrections are necessary. A method is developed to estimate the entrance optics temperatures from pyranometer measurements and meteorological data. The method enables us to correct historic data records for which temperature information is not available. The temperature retrieval method has an uncertainty of less than 2.5 degrees C, resulting in a 0.3% uncertainty in the correction to be performed. The temperature correction improves the agreement between modeled and measured doses and instrument intercomparison as performed within the Quality Assurance of Spectral Ultraviolet Measurements in Europe project. The retrieval method is easily transferable to other instruments.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation in young Dutch children: assessment by means of a 6-week retrospective questionnaire.

We designed a 6-week retrospective questionnaire on sunlight exposure. Estimation of the short-term exposure to sunlight is important for observational human studies concerning the effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on the human immune system and related resistance to infections. This questionnaire was given to the parents of 1672 1-year-old children in the Netherlands who participated in a birth cohort study. We evaluated the questionnaire and estimated the personal 6-week cumulative exposure to solar UVR. Only 910 questionnaires (54.4%) were filled out completely and consistently. This suggests that reporting data on children's outdoor exposure, even for the recent past, is often difficult. The data from these questionnaires indicated that the crude number of reported outdoor hours was enough to obtain a relative estimate of the individual exposure to ambient UVR, but that weighting for the effect of clothing was essential for the classification of the systemic UVR dosage received. Sunny weeks in the Netherlands in 1998, as were established by independent measurements of the levels of ambient UVR, vacations abroad, and sunburn, were associated with a comparatively high mean estimated exposure. These results support the suitability of the questionnaire for classifying the participants with respect to their short-term exposure to solar UVR.