A recalibrated prediction model can identify level-1 trauma patients at risk of nosocomial pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial pneumonia has poor prognosis in hospitalized trauma patients. Croce et al. published a model to predict post-traumatic ventilator-associated pneumonia, which achieved high discrimination and reasonable sensitivity. We aimed to externally validate Croce's model to predict nosocomial pneumonia in patients admitted to a Dutch level-1 trauma center. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included all trauma patients (≥ 16y) admitted for > 24 h to our level-1 trauma center in 2017. Exclusion criteria were pneumonia or antibiotic treatment upon hospital admission, treatment elsewhere > 24 h, or death < 48 h. Croce's model used eight clinical variables-on trauma severity and treatment, available in the emergency department-to predict nosocomial pneumonia risk. The model's predictive performance was assessed through discrimination and calibration before and after re-estimating the model's coefficients. In sensitivity analysis, the model was updated using Ridge regression. RESULTS: 809 Patients were included (median age 51y, 67% male, 97% blunt trauma), of whom 86 (11%) developed nosocomial pneumonia. Pneumonia patients were older, more severely injured, and underwent more emergent interventions. Croce's model showed good discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.79-0.87), yet predicted probabilities were too low (mean predicted risk 6.4%), and calibration was suboptimal (calibration slope 0.63). After full model recalibration, discrimination (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.88) and calibration improved. Adding age to the model increased the AUC to 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.91). Prediction parameters were similar after the models were updated using Ridge regression. CONCLUSION: The externally validated and intercept-recalibrated models show good discrimination and have the potential to predict nosocomial pneumonia. At this time, clinicians could apply these models to identify high-risk patients, increase patient monitoring, and initiate preventative measures. Recalibration of Croce's model improved the predictive performance (discrimination and calibration). The recalibrated model provides a further basis for nosocomial pneumonia prediction in level-1 trauma patients. Several models are accessible via an online tool. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, Prognostic/Epidemiological Study.

Long-term quality of life after surgery for chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for chronic pancreatitis is indicated for intractable pain or the treatment of complications. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the applicability of pain coping and quality-of-life (QOL) scoring in patients with chronic pancreatitis. METHODS: Between 1995 and 2008, 155 patients underwent surgery for chronic pancreatitis in two Dutch university hospitals. Medical charts were reviewed, and QOL and coping with pain were assessed by two validated questionnaires. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. The aetiology was alcohol related in 48.3 per cent. Some 111 resections and 46 drainage procedures were performed. Fifty-seven patients had major complications and the hospital mortality rate was 1.3 per cent. After surgery the number of patients needing analgesics was reduced (P < 0.001). Alcohol consumption significantly reduced pain coping mechanisms (P = 0.032). Overall, QOL remained poor after surgery. Scores on three dimensions of the QOL questionnaire were significantly better after drainage than after resection procedures. CONCLUSION: In general, QOL after surgery for chronic pancreatitis remains poor, owing to pre-existing lifestyle and co-morbidity. Patients selected for a pancreatic duct drainage procedure have a better postoperative QOL than those undergoing resectional procedures. Alcohol consumption is associated with poor ability to cope with pain after surgery and should be discouraged.