Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa.

Africa produces around 60% of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, the rice-agricultural area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we used a process-based crop simulation modelling approach combined with local weather, soil, and management datasets to evaluate the potential to increase rice production on existing cropland area in Africa and assess cropland expansion and rice imports by year 2050 for different scenarios of yield intensification. We find that Africa can avoid further increases in rice imports, and even reduce them, through a combination of cropland expansion following the historical trend together with closure of the current exploitable yield gap by half or more. Without substantial increase in rice yields, meeting future rice demand will require larger rice imports and/or land conversion than now.

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

Improved climate risk simulations for rice in arid environments.

We integrated recent research on cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth, spikelet formation, early morning flowering, transpirational cooling, and heat- and cold-induced sterility into an existing to crop growth model ORYZA2000. We compared for an arid environment observed potential yields with yields simulated with default ORYZA2000, with modified subversions of ORYZA2000 and with ORYZA_S, a model developed for the region of interest in the 1990s. Rice variety 'IR64' was sown monthly 15-times in a row in two locations in Senegal. The Senegal River Valley is located in the Sahel, near the Sahara desert with extreme temperatures during day and night. The existing subroutines underestimated cold stress and overestimated heat stress. Forcing the model to use observed spikelet number and phenology and replacing the existing heat and cold subroutines improved accuracy of yield simulation from EF = -0.32 to EF =0.70 (EF is modelling efficiency). The main causes of improved accuracy were that the new model subversions take into account transpirational cooling (which is high in arid environments) and early morning flowering for heat sterility, and minimum rather than average temperature for cold sterility. Simulations were less accurate when also spikelet number and phenology were simulated. Model efficiency was 0.14 with new heat and cold routines and improved to 0.48 when using new cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth. The new adapted subversion of ORYZA2000 offers a powerful analytic tool for climate change impact assessment and cropping calendar optimisation in arid regions.