The association of comorbidities with sleep quality among Australians with multiple sclerosis: Insights from the Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities and poor sleep quality are prevalent among individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS). Our understanding of the effects of comorbidities on sleep quality in MS remains limited. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to investigate whether the number and presence of specific comorbidities have associations with sleep quality and to assess the relative contribution of comorbidity groups to sleep quality. METHODS: We collected data on sleep quality (using Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI)) and presence of comorbidities in people with MS (n = 1597). Associations between comorbidities and sleep quality were examined using linear regression and dominance analysis. RESULTS: Having more comorbidities was associated with poorer sleep quality (p for trend < 0.001). All 13 groups of comorbidities explained 12.9% of the variance in PSQI from which half of the variance was contributed by mental health disorders. In total, 16 of the 28 comorbidities were associated with significantly worse sleep quality, with the strongest associations seen for 'other autoimmune diseases' (ß = 1.98), depression (ß = 1.76), anxiety (ß = 1.72) and rheumatoid arthritis (ß = 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Many individual comorbidities are associated with poorer sleep quality, with mental health disorders making the largest relative contribution. Optimal management of comorbidities that make the greatest contributions could have the largest benefit for improving sleep in MS.

The quality of life impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns for people living with multiple sclerosis (MS): evidence from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study.

PURPOSE: People living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) in metropolitan Victoria, Australia, experienced a 112-day, COVID-19-related lockdown in mid-2020. Contemporaneously, Australian PwMS elsewhere experienced minimal restrictions, resulting in a natural experiment. This study investigated the relationships between lockdowns, COVID-19-related adversity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). It also generated health state utilities (HSU) representative of changes in HRQoL. METHODS: Data were extracted from Australian MS Longitudinal Study surveys, which included the Assessment of Quality of Life-Eight Dimensions (AQoL-8D) instrument and a COVID-19 questionnaire. This COVID-19 questionnaire required participants to rank their COVID-19-related adversity across seven health dimensions. Ordered probits were used to identify variables contributing to adversity. Linear and logit regressions were applied to determine the impact of adversity on HRQoL, defined using AQoL-8D HSUs. Qualitative data were examined thematically. RESULTS: N = 1666 PwMS (average age 58.5; 79.8% female; consistent with the clinical presentation of MS) entered the study, with n = 367 (22.0%) exposed to the 112-day lockdown. Lockdown exposure and disability severity were strongly associated with higher adversity rankings (p < 0.01). Higher adversity rankings were associated with lower HSUs. Participants reporting major adversity, across measured health dimensions, had a mean HSU 0.161 (p < 0.01) lower than participants reporting no adversity and were more likely (OR: 2.716, p < 0.01) to report a clinically significant HSU reduction. Themes in qualitative data supported quantitative findings. CONCLUSIONS: We found that COVID-19-related adversity reduced the HRQoL of PwMS. Our HSU estimates can be used in health economic models to evaluate lockdown cost-effectiveness for people with complex and chronic (mainly neurological) diseases.

Self-reported behaviour change among multiple sclerosis community members and interested laypeople 6 months following participation in a free online course about multiple sclerosis.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Evaluated the impact of the Understanding Multiple Sclerosis (MS) massive open online course, which was intended to increase understanding and awareness about MS, on self-reported health behaviour change 6 months after course completion. METHODS: Observational cohort study evaluating precourse(baseline) and postcourse (immediately postcourse and six-month follow-up) survey data. The main study outcomes were self-reported health behaviour change; change type; and measurable improvement. We also collected participant characteristic data (eg, age, physical activity). We compared participants who reported health behaviour change at follow-up to those who did not and compared those who improved to those who did not using χ2 and t tests. Participant characteristics, change types and change improvement were described descriptively. Consistency between changes reported immediately postcourse and at the 6-month follow-up was assessed using χ2 tests and textual analysis. RESULTS: N = 303 course completers were included in this study. The study cohort included MS community members (eg, people with MS, healthcare providers) and nonmembers. N = 127 (41.9%) reported behaviour change in ≥1 area at follow-up. Of these, 90 (70.9%) reported a measured change, and of these, 57 (63.3%) showed improvement. The most reported change types were knowledge, exercise/physical activity and diet. N = 81 (63.8% of those reporting a change) reported a change in both immediately and 6 months after course completion, with 72.0% of those that described both changes giving similar responses each time. CONCLUSION: Understanding MS encourages health behaviour change among course completers up to 6 months after course completion. SO WHAT?: An online education intervention can effectively encourage health behaviour change over a 6-month follow-up period, suggesting a transition from acute change to maintenance. The primary mechanisms underpinning this effect are information provision, including both scientific evidence and lived experience, and goal-setting activities and discussions.

Exploring the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent multiple sclerosis in an Australian setting.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests the potential of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccination in preventing multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical EBV vaccination to prevent MS in an Australian setting. METHODS: A five-state Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and subsequent progression of MS in a general Australian population. The model inputs were derived from published Australian sources. Hypothetical vaccination costs, efficacy and strategies were derived from literature. Total lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for two hypothetical prevention strategies versus no prevention from the societal and health system payer perspectives. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% annually. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: From societal perspective, EBV vaccination targeted at aged 0 and aged 12 both dominated no prevention (ie, cost saving and increasing QALYs). However, vaccinating at age 12 was more cost-effective (total lifetime costs reduced by $A452/person, QALYs gained=0.007, ICER=-$A64 571/QALY gained) than vaccinating at age 0 (total lifetime costs reduced by $A40/person, QALYs gained=0.003, ICER=-$A13 333/QALY gained). The probabilities of being cost-effective under $A50 000/QALY gained threshold for vaccinating at ages 0 and 12 were 66% and 90%, respectively. From health system payer perspective, the EBV vaccination was cost-effective at age 12 only. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent MS under a wide range of plausible scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: MS prevention using future EBV vaccinations, particularly targeted at adolescence population, is highly likely to be cost-effective.

Introducing a core dataset for real-world data in multiple sclerosis registries and cohorts: Recommendations from a global task force.

BACKGROUND: As of September 2022, there was no globally recommended set of core data elements for use in multiple sclerosis (MS) healthcare and research. As a result, data harmonisation across observational data sources and scientific collaboration is limited. OBJECTIVES: To define and agree upon a core dataset for real-world data (RWD) in MS from observational registries and cohorts. METHODS: A three-phase process approach was conducted combining a landscaping exercise with dedicated discussions within a global multi-stakeholder task force consisting of 20 experts in the field of MS and its RWD to define the Core Dataset. RESULTS: A core dataset for MS consisting of 44 variables in eight categories was translated into a data dictionary that has been published and disseminated for emerging and existing registries and cohorts to use. Categories include variables on demographics and comorbidities (patient-specific data), disease history, disease status, relapses, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and treatment data (disease-specific data). CONCLUSION: The MS Data Alliance Core Dataset guides emerging registries in their dataset definitions and speeds up and supports harmonisation across registries and initiatives. The straight-forward, time-efficient process using a dedicated global multi-stakeholder task force has proven to be effective to define a concise core dataset.

Changes in employment status over time in multiple sclerosis following a first episode of central nervous system demyelination, a Markov multistate model study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

Using qualitative free-text data to investigate the lived experience of the COVID-19 pandemic for a large cohort of Australians with different multiple sclerosis related disability levels.

BACKGROUND: No large-scale qualitative studies have investigated the lived experience of people living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) during the pandemic according to their disability level. We used qualitative research methods to investigate the lived experience of a large cohort of Australians living with differing multiple sclerosis (MS)-related disability levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also provided useful contextualisation to existing quantitative work. METHODS: This was a retrospective survey-based mixed-methods cohort study. A quality-of-life study was conducted within the Australian MS Longitudinal Study during the pandemic. Disability severity was calculated using the Patient Determined Disease Steps. Qualitative free-text data regarding COVID-19 impacts was collected/analysed for word frequency and also thematically (inductively/deductively using sophisticated grounded theory) using NVivo software. We also triangulated word frequency with emerging themes. RESULTS: N=509 PwMS participated providing n=22 530 words of COVID-19-specific data. Disability severity could be calculated for n=501 PwMS. The word 'working' was important for PwMS with no disability, and 'support' and 'isolation' for higher disability levels. For PwMS with milder disability, thematic analysis established that multitasking increased stress levels, particularly if working from home (WFH) and home-schooling children. If not multitasking, WFH was beneficial for managing fatigue. PwMS with severe disability raised increased social isolation as a concern including prepandemic isolation. CONCLUSIONS: We found negative impacts of multitasking and social isolation for PwMS during the pandemic. WFH was identified as beneficial for some. We recommend targeted resourcing decisions for PwMS in future pandemics including child-care relief and interventions to reduce social isolation and suggest that these could be incorporated into some form of advanced care planning. As the nature of work changes postpandemic, we also recommend a detailed investigation of WFH for PwMS including providing tailored employment assistance.

Evaluation of Cell-Specific Epigenetic Age Acceleration in People With Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In multiple sclerosis (MS), accelerated aging of the immune system (immunosenescence) may be associated with disease onset or drive progression. DNA methylation (DNAm) is an epigenetic factor that varies among lymphocyte subtypes, and cell-specific DNAm is associated with MS. DNAm varies across the life span and can be used to accurately estimate biological age acceleration, which has been linked to a range of morbidities. The objective of this study was to test for cell-specific epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in people with MS. METHODS: This was a case-control study of EAA using existing DNAm data from several independent previously published studies. Data were included if .idat files from Illumina 450K or EPIC arrays were available for both a case with MS and an age-matched and sex-matched control, from the same study. Multifactor statistical modeling was performed to assess the primary outcome of EAA. We explored the relationship of EAA and MS, including interaction terms to identify immune cell-specific effects. Cell-sorted DNA methylation data from 3 independent datasets were used to validate findings. RESULTS: We used whole blood DNA methylation data from 583 cases with MS and 643 non-MS controls to calculate EAA using the GrimAge algorithm. The MS group exhibited an increased EAA compared with controls (approximately 9 mths, 95% CI 3.6-14.4), p = 0.001). Statistical deconvolution showed that EAA is associated with MS in a B cell-dependent manner (ß int = 1.7, 95% CI 0.3-2.8), p = 0.002), irrespective of B-cell proportions. Validation analysis using 3 independent datasets enriched for B cells showed an EAA increase of 5.1 years in cases with MS compared with that in controls (95% CI 2.8-7.4, p = 5.5 × 10-5). By comparison, there was no EAA difference in MS in a T cell-enriched dataset. We found that EAA was attributed to the DNAm surrogates for Beta-2-microglobulin (difference = 47,546, 95% CI 10,067-85,026; p = 7.2 × 10-5), and smoking pack-years (difference = 8.1, 95% CI 1.9-14.2, p = 0.002). DISCUSSION: This study provides compelling evidence that B cells exhibit marked EAA in MS and supports the hypothesis that premature B-cell immune senescence plays a role in MS. Future MS studies should focus on age-related molecular mechanisms in B cells.

The multiple sclerosis self-concept change scale: Development and validation of a new measure.

BACKGROUND: Self-concept change may impact psychological wellbeing and functioning in people with MS (pwMS). However, the extent and nature of change in self-concept that pwMS experience is poorly understood, owing to the lack of quantitative measures available to assess this construct. OBJECTIVE: To examine the factor structure, validity, and internal consistency of the newly developed Multiple Sclerosis Self-Concept Change Scale (MSSCCS). METHODS: Items measuring self-concept change were created, reviewed by a panel of experts and pre-tested in a sample of 135 pwMS. A revised list of 51 items were then administered to 1307 pwMS (80.3% female; Age M = 59.21 years, SD = 11.40), together with measures of disease impact and psychosocial functioning. RESULTS: Exploratory factor analysis using principal axis factor extraction in 643 randomly selected participants yielded 23-items measuring 5 latent factors for the final MSSCCS. Confirmatory factor analysis involving the remaining participants supported the 5-factor model, as well as a 2nd order model of "global change". Internal consistency of the total scale was good (α = 0.89). The MSSCCS also demonstrated evidence of concurrent and construct validity. CONCLUSION: The MSSCCS is a reliable and valid assessment, which may assist in enhancing understanding of self-concept change in pwMS.

Disease-modifying therapies do not affect sleep quality or daytime sleepiness in a large Australian MS cohort.

BACKGROUND: Poor sleep is common in multiple sclerosis (MS) and may impact daily functioning. The extent to which disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) contribute to sleep outcomes is under-examined. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of DMTs on sleep outcomes in an Australian cohort of people with MS and investigate associations between DMT use and beliefs about sleep problems and daily functioning (social functioning and activity engagement). METHODS: Sleep outcomes were assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. DMT use and functioning were self-reported. RESULTS: Of 1,715 participants, 64% used a DMT. No differences in sleep outcomes were detected between participants who did and did not use DMTs, the type of DMT used (lower vs higher efficacy, interferon-ß vs other DMTs), the timing of administration, or adherence to standard administration recommendations. Beliefs that DMT use worsened sleep were associated with poorer sleep quality and perceptions that sleep problems interfered with daily functioning. CONCLUSION: The use of a DMT does not appear to affect self-reported sleep outcomes in people with MS. However, beliefs that DMT use makes sleep worse were associated with poorer sleep quality and increased interference in daily functioning, suggesting a need for education to diminish negative perceptions of DMT use.

Estimating the disutility of relapse in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-psychosocial, and SF-6D: implications for health economic evaluation models.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Relapses are an important clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS) that result in temporary negative changes in quality of life (QoL), measured by health state utilities (HSUs) (disutilities). We aimed to quantify disutilities of relapse in relapsing remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS), and relapse onset MS [ROMS (including both RRMS and SPMS)] and examine these values by disability severity using four multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs). METHODS: We estimated (crude and adjusted and stratified by disability severity) disutilities (representing the mean difference in HSUs of 'relapse' and 'no relapse' groups as well as 'unsure' and 'no relapse' groups) in RRMS (n = 1056), SPMS (n = 239), and ROMS (n = 1295) cohorts from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study's 2020 QoL survey, using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial, and SF-6D MAUIs. RESULTS: Adjusted mean overall disutilities of relapse in RMSS/SPMS/ROMS were - 0.101/- 0.149/- 0.129 (EQ-5D-5L), - 0.092/- 0.167/- 0.113 (AQoL-8D), - 0.080/- 0.139/- 0.097 (EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial), and - 0.116/- 0.161/- 0.130 (SF-6D), approximately 1.5 times higher in SPMS than in RRMS, in all MAUI. All estimates were statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful. Adjusted disutilities of RRMS and ROMS demonstrated a U-shaped relationship between relapse disutilities and disability severity. Relapse disutilities were higher in 'severe' disability than 'mild' and 'moderate' in the SPMS cohort. CONCLUSION: MS-related relapses are associated with substantial utility decrements. As the type and severity of MS influence disutility of relapse, the use of disability severity and MS-type-specific disutility inputs is recommended in future health economic evaluations of MS. Our study supports relapse management and prevention as major mechanisms to improve QoL in people with MS.

The association between disability progression, relapses, and treatment in early relapse onset MS: an observational, multi-centre, longitudinal cohort study.

The indirect contribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses to disability worsening outcomes, and vice-versa, remains unclear. Disease modifying therapies (DMTs) are potential modulators of this association. Understanding how these endo-phenotypes interact may provide insights into disease pathogenesis and treatment practice in relapse-onset MS (ROMS). Utilising a unique, prospectively collected clinical data from a longitudinal cohort of 279 first demyelinating event cases followed for up to 15 years post-onset, we examined indirect associations between relapses and treatment and the risk of disability worsening, and vice-versa. Indirect association parameters were estimated using joint models for longitudinal and survival data. Early relapses within 2.5 years of MS onset predicted early disability worsening outcomes (HR = 3.45, C.I 2.29-3.61) per relapse, but did not contribute to long-term disability worsening thereinafter (HR = 0.21, C.I 0.15-0.28). Conversely, disability worsening outcomes significantly contributed to relapse risk each year (HR = 2.96, C.I 2.91-3.02), and persisted over time (HR = 3.34, C.I 2.90-3.86), regardless of DMT treatments. The duration of DMTs significantly reduced the hazards of relapses (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.68, C.I 0.58-0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.37, C.I 0.32-0.44) and disability worsening events (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.74, C.I 0.69-0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.90, C.I 0.85-0.95), respectively. Results from time-dynamic survival probabilities further revealed individuals having higher risk of future relapses and disability worsening outcomes, respectively. The study provided evidence that in ROMS, relapses accrued within 2.5 years of MS onset are strong indicators of disability worsening outcomes, but late relapses accrued 2.5 years post onset are not overt risk factors for further disability worsening. In contrast, disability worsening outcomes are strong positive predictors of current and subsequent relapse risk. Long-term DMT use and older age strongly influence the individual outcomes and their associations.

A pro-inflammatory diet in people with multiple sclerosis is associated with an increased rate of relapse and increased FLAIR lesion volume on MRI in early multiple sclerosis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A pro-inflammatory diet has been posited to induce chronic inflammation within the central nervous system (CNS), and multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the CNS. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®)) scores are associated with measures of MS progression and inflammatory activity. METHODS: A cohort with a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination was followed annually (10 years, n = 223). At baseline, 5- and 10-year reviews, DII and energy-adjusted DII (E-DIITM) scores were calculated (food frequency questionnaire) and assessed as predictors of relapses, annualised change in disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale) and two magnetic resonance imaging measures; fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) lesion volume and black hole lesion volume. RESULTS: A more pro-inflammatory diet was associated with a higher relapse risk (highest vs. lowest E-DII quartile: hazard ratio = 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.16, 4.33, p = 0.02). When we limited analyses to those assessed on the same manufacturer of scanner and those with a first demyelinating event at study entry (to reduce error and disease heterogeneity), an association between E-DII score and FLAIR lesion volume was evident (ß = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.04, 0.72, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: There is a longitudinal association between a higher DII and a worsening in relapse rate and periventricular FLAIR lesion volume in people with MS.

Instruments measuring change in cognitive function in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating/neurodegenerative disease associated with change in cognitive function (CF) over time. This systematic review aims to describe the instruments used to measure change in CF over time in people with MS (PwMS). METHODS: PubMed, OVID, Web of Science, and Scopus databases were searched in English until May 2021. Articles were included if they had at least 100 participants and at least a 1-year interval between baseline and last follow-up measurement of CF. Results were quantitatively synthesized, presented in tables and risk of bias was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: Fifty-seven articles met the inclusion criteria (41,623 PwMS and 1105 controls). An intervention (drug/rehabilitation) was assessed in 22 articles. In the studies that used a test battery, Visual and verbal learning and memory were the most frequently measured domains, but when studies that used test battery or a single test are combined, Information processing speed was the most measured. The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) was the most frequently used test as a single test and in a test battery combined. Most studied assessed "change in CF" as cognitive decline defined as 1 or more tests measured as ≥ 1.5 SD from the study control or normative mean in a test battery at baseline and follow-up. Meta-analysis of change in SDMT scores with seven articles indicated a nonstatistically significant -0.03 (95% CI -0.14, 0.09) decrease in mean SDMT score per year. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the slow rate of measured change in cognition in PwMS and emphasizes the lack of a gold standard test and consistency in measuring cognitive change at the population level. More sensitive testing utilizing multiple domains and longer follow-up may define subgroups where CF change follows different trajectories thus allowing targeted interventions to directly support those where CF is at greatest risk of becoming a clinically meaningful issue.

Higher consumption of ultra-processed foods and increased likelihood of central nervous system demyelination in a case-control study of Australian adults.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has been linked to risk of chronic diseases, with scant evidence in relation to multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We tested associations between UPF consumption and likelihood of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD) (267 cases, 508 controls), a common precursor to MS. We used data from the 2003-2006 Ausimmune Study and logistic regression with full propensity score matching for age, sex, region of residence, education, smoking history, body mass index, physical activity, history of infectious mononucleosis, dietary misreporting, and total energy intake. RESULTS: Higher UPF consumption was statistically significantly associated with an increased likelihood of FCD (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.0,1.15; p = 0.039), representing an 8% increase in likelihood of FCD per one energy-adjusted serving/day of UPFs. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of UPF were associated with increased likelihood of FCD in this Australian cohort. Nutrition education and awareness of healthy eating patterns may benefit those at high risk of FCD.

Genetically determined serum serine level has a novel causal effect on multiple sclerosis risk and predicts disability progression.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no specific biomarkers for multiple sclerosis (MS). Identifying robust biomarkers for MS is crucial to improve disease diagnosis and management. METHODS: This study first used six Mendelian randomisation methods to assess causal relationship of 174 metabolites with MS, incorporating data from European-ancestry metabolomics (n=8569-86 507) and MS (n=14 802 MS cases, 26 703 controls) genomewide association studies. Genetic scores for identified causal metabolite(s) were then computed to predict MS disability progression in an independent longitudinal cohort (AusLong study) of 203 MS cases with up to 15-year follow-up. RESULTS: We found a novel genetic causal effect of serine on MS onset (OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.84, p=1.73×10-20), such that individuals whose serine level is 1 SD above the population mean will have 1.67 times the risk of developing MS. This is robust across all sensitivity methods (OR ranges from 1.49 to 1.67). In an independent longitudinal MS cohort, we then constructed time-dynamic and time-fixed genetic scores based on serine genetic instrument single-nucleotide polymorphisms, where higher scores for raised serum serine level were associated with increased risk of disability worsening, especially in the time-dynamic model (RR=1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.42, p=7.52×10-4). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support investigating serine as an important candidate biomarker for MS onset and disability progression.

Physical activity participation in Australians with multiple sclerosis: associations with geographical remoteness.

PURPOSE: Physical activity (PA) participation offers many benefits for persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). Persons with MS are significantly less active than the general population; however, there is insufficient evidence regarding the association between geographical remoteness and PA participation in persons with MS. We identify PA levels across levels of rurality in an Australian MS population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Australian MS Longitudinal Study collects regular survey data from persons with MS in Australia, including demographic, clinical, and health behavioural data. Physical activity engagement was identified with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-short form and geographical remoteness was identified from participants' postcode using the Access and Remoteness Index for Australia. Hurdle regression analysis examined the relationship between remoteness and PA participation, and level of PA, after controlling for confounding. RESULTS: Data from 1260 respondents showed that 24% of persons with MS did not participate in any PA. Remoteness was not associated with the participation in any PA (OR 1.04; 89% highest density probability interval (HDPI) estimate 0.88, 1.22). Amongst those with any PA (n = 960), those living in more remote areas had, on average, higher levels of PA (RR 1.21; 89% HDPI estimate 1.11, 1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity promotion does not need to differ based on geographical location. Implications for rehabilitationAlmost one quarter of persons with MS in our study recorded no participation in any physical activity (PA).Healthcare practitioners are encouraged to include the promotion of PA as part of MS management.Physical activity participation is similar for persons with MS across different geographical locations.Physical activity promotion does not need to differ based on geographical location.

Validation of the EQ-5D-5L and psychosocial bolt-ons in a large cohort of people living with multiple sclerosis in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system which results in disability over time and reduced quality of life. To increase the sensitivity of the EQ-5D-5L for psychosocial health, four bolt-on items from the AQoL-8D were used to create the nine-item EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial. We aimed to externally validate the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial in a large cohort of people with MS (pwMS) and explore the discriminatory power of the new instrument with EQ-5D-5L/AQoL-8D. METHODS: A large representative sample from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L (including EQ VAS) and both instruments health state utilities (HSUs) were scored using Australian tariffs. Sociodemographic/clinical data were also collected. External validity of EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial scoring algorithm was assessed with mean absolute errors (MAE) and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Discriminatory sensitivity was assessed with an examination of ceiling/floor effects, and disability severity classifications. RESULTS: Among 1683 participants (mean age: 58.6 years; 80% female), over half (55%) had moderate or severe disability. MAE (0.063) and the distribution of the prediction error were similar to the original development study. Mean (± standard deviation) HSUs were EQ-5D-5L: 0.58 ± 0.32, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial 0.62 ± 0.29, and AQoL-8D: 0.63 ± 0.20. N = 157 (10%) scored perfect health (i.e. HSU = 1.0) on the EQ-5D-5L, but reported a mean HSU of 0.90 on the alternative instruments. The Sleep bolt-on dimension was particularly important for pwMS. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L in pwMS whose HSUs approach those reflecting full health. When respondent burden is taken into account, the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is preferential to the AQoL-8D. We suggest a larger confirmatory study comparing all prevalent multi-attribute utility instruments for pwMS.

Using the EQ-5D-5L to investigate quality-of-life impacts of disease-modifying therapy policies for people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Health state utilities (HSU) are a health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) input for cost-utility analyses used for resource allocation decisions, including medication reimbursement. New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend the EQ-5D instruments; however, the EQ-5D-5L may not sufficiently capture psychosocial health. We evaluated HRQoL among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in NZ using the EQ-5D-5L and assessed the instrument's discriminatory sensitivity for a NZ MS cohort. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the NZ MS Prevalence Study. Participants self-completed a 45-min online survey that included the EQ-5D-5L/EQ-VAS. Disability severity was classified using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) to categorise participant disability as mild (EDSS: 0-3.5), moderate (EDSS: 4.0-6.0) and severe (EDSS: 6.5-9.5). Anxiety/depression were also measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS). In the absence of an EQ-5D-5L NZ tariff, HSUs were derived using an Australian tariff. We evaluated associations between HSUs and participant characteristics with linear regression models. RESULTS: 254 participants entered the study. Mean age was 55.2 years, 79.5% were female. Mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L HSU was 0.58 (0.33). Mean (SD) HSUs for disability categories were: mild 0.80 ± 0.17, moderate 0.57 ± 0.21 and severe 0.14 ± 0.32. Twelve percent reported HSU = 1.0 (i.e., no problems in any domain). Participants who had never used a disease-modifying therapy reported a lower mean HSU. Multivariable modelling found that the HADS anxiety score was not associated with EQ-5D-5L. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL for people with MS in NZ was lower than comparable countries, including Australia. We suggest a comparison with other generic tools that may have improved sensitivity to mental health.

Ensemble machine learning identifies genetic loci associated with future worsening of disability in people with multiple sclerosis.

Limited studies have been conducted to identify and validate multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic loci associated with disability progression. We aimed to identify MS genetic loci associated with worsening of disability over time, and to develop and validate ensemble genetic learning model(s) to identify people with MS (PwMS) at risk of future worsening. We examined associations of 208 previously established MS genetic loci with the risk of worsening of disability; we learned ensemble genetic decision rules and validated the predictions in an external dataset. We found 7 genetic loci (rs7731626: HR 0.92, P = 2.4 × 10-5; rs12211604: HR 1.16, P = 3.2 × 10-7; rs55858457: HR 0.93, P = 3.7 × 10-7; rs10271373: HR 0.90, P = 1.1 × 10-7; rs11256593: HR 1.13, P = 5.1 × 10-57; rs12588969: HR = 1.10, P = 2.1 × 10-10; rs1465697: HR 1.09, P = 1.7 × 10-128) associated with risk worsening of disability; most of which were located near or tagged to 13 genomic regions enriched in peptide hormones and steroids biosynthesis pathways by positional and eQTL mapping. The derived ensembles produced a set of genetic decision rules that can be translated to provide additional prognostic values to existing clinical predictions, with the additional benefit of incorporating relevant genetic information into clinical decision making for PwMS. The present study extends our knowledge of MS progression genetics and provides the basis of future studies regarding the functional significance of the identified loci.