Landscape dynamics and diversification of the megadiverse South American freshwater fish fauna.

Landscape dynamics are widely thought to govern the tempo and mode of continental radiations, yet the effects of river network rearrangements on dispersal and lineage diversification remain poorly understood. We integrated an unprecedented occurrence dataset of 4,967 species with a newly compiled, time-calibrated phylogeny of South American freshwater fishes-the most species-rich continental vertebrate fauna on Earth-to track the evolutionary processes associated with hydrogeographic events over 100 Ma. Net lineage diversification was heterogeneous through time, across space, and among clades. Five abrupt shifts in net diversification rates occurred during the Paleogene and Miocene (between 30 and 7 Ma) in association with major landscape evolution events. Net diversification accelerated from the Miocene to the Recent (c. 20 to 0 Ma), with Western Amazonia having the highest rates of in situ diversification, which led to it being an important source of species dispersing to other regions. All regional biotic interchanges were associated with documented hydrogeographic events and the formation of biogeographic corridors, including the Early Miocene (c. 23 to 16 Ma) uplift of the Serra do Mar and Serra da Mantiqueira and the Late Miocene (c. 10 Ma) uplift of the Northern Andes and associated formation of the modern transcontinental Amazon River. The combination of high diversification rates and extensive biotic interchange associated with Western Amazonia yielded its extraordinary contemporary richness and phylogenetic endemism. Our results support the hypothesis that landscape dynamics, which shaped the history of drainage basin connections, strongly affected the assembly and diversification of basin-wide fish faunas.

Slow and steady wins the race: Diversification rate is independent from body size and lifestyle in Malagasy skinks (Squamata: Scincidae: Scincinae).

Most of the unique and diverse vertebrate fauna that inhabits Madagascar derives from in situ diversification from colonisers that reached this continental island through overseas dispersal. The endemic Malagasy Scincinae lizards are amongst the most species-rich squamate groups on the island. They colonised all bioclimatic zones and display many ecomorphological adaptations to a fossorial (burrowing) lifestyle. Here we propose a new phylogenetic hypothesis for their diversification based on the largest taxon sampling so far compiled for this group. We estimated divergence times and investigated several aspects of their diversification (diversification rate, body size and fossorial lifestyle evolution, and biogeography). We found that diversification rate was constant throughout most of the evolutionary history of the group, but decreased over the last 6-4 million years and independently from body size and fossorial lifestyle evolution. Fossoriality has evolved from fully quadrupedal ancestors at least five times independently, which demonstrates that even complex morphological syndromes - in this case involving traits such as limb regression, body elongation, modification of cephalic scalation, depigmentation, and eyes and ear-opening regression - can evolve repeatedly and independently given enough time and eco-evolutionary advantages. Initial diversification of the group likely occurred in forests, and the divergence of sand-swimmer genera around 20 Ma appears linked to a period of aridification. Our results show that the large phenotypic variability of Malagasy Scincinae has not influenced diversification rate and that their rich species diversity results from a constant accumulation of lineages through time. By compiling large geographic and trait-related datasets together with the computation of a new time tree for the group, our study contributes important insights on the diversification of Malagasy vertebrates.

Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and use.

Madagascar's biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar's past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting an updated and simplified map of vegetation types. We report a substantial increase of records and species new to science in recent years; however, the diversity and evolution of many groups remain practically unknown (e.g., fungi and most invertebrates). Digitization efforts are increasing the resolution of species richness patterns and we highlight the crucial role of field- and collections-based research for advancing biodiversity knowledge and identifying gaps in our understanding, particularly as species richness corresponds closely to collection effort. Phylogenetic diversity patterns mirror that of species richness and endemism in most of the analyzed groups. We highlight humid forests as centers of diversity and endemism because of their role as refugia and centers of recent and rapid radiations. However, the distinct endemism of other areas, such as the grassland-woodland mosaic of the Central Highlands and the spiny forest of the southwest, is also biologically important despite lower species richness. The documented uses of Malagasy biodiversity are manifold, with much potential for the uncovering of new useful traits for food, medicine, and climate mitigation. The data presented here showcase Madagascar as a unique "living laboratory" for our understanding of evolution and the complex interactions between people and nature. The gathering and analysis of biodiversity data must continue and accelerate if we are to fully understand and safeguard this unique subset of Earth's biodiversity.

Diversification of Amazonian spiny tree rats in genus Makalata (Rodentia, Echimyidae): Cryptic diversity, geographic structure and drivers of speciation.

Amazonian mammal diversity is exceptionally high, yet new taxonomic discoveries continue to be made and many questions remain for understanding its diversification through time and space. Here we investigate the diversification of spiny rats in the genus Makalata, whose species are strongly associated with seasonally flooded forests, watercourses and flooded islands. We use a biogeographical approach based on a mitochondrial cytochrome b gene through divergence time estimation and reconstruction of ancestral areas and events. Our findings indicate an ancient origin of Makalata for the Guiana Shield and Eastern Amazonia as ancestral area. A first cladogenetic event led to a phylogeographic break into two broader clades of Makalata through dispersal, implying a pattern of western/Eastern Amazonian clades coinciding with the Purus Arch (middle Miocene). Most of subclades we infer originated between the late Pliocene to the early Pleistocene, with few recent exceptions in the early Pliocene through dispersal and vicariant events. The hypothesis of rivers as dispersal barriers is not corroborated for Makalata, as expected for mammalian species associated with seasonally flooded environments. We identify two key events for the expansion and diversification of Makalata species: the presence of geologically stable areas in the Guiana and Brazilian shields and the transition from lacustrine conditions in western Amazonia (Acre system) to a river system, with the establishment of the Amazon River transcontinental system and its tributaries. Our results are congruent with older geological scenarios for the Amazon basin formation (Miocene), but we do not discard the influence of recent dynamics on some speciation events and, mainly, on phylogeographic structuring processes.

The origin of modern patterns of continental diversity in Mauritiinae palms: the Neotropical museum and the Afrotropical graveyard.

While the latitudinal diversity gradient has received much attention, biodiversity and species richness also vary between continents across similar latitudes. Fossil information can be used to understand the evolutionary mechanisms that generated such variation between continents of similar latitudes. We integrated fossil data into a phylogenetic analysis of the Mauritiinae palms, whose extant diversity is restricted to the Neotropics, but extended across Africa and India during most of the Cenozoic. Mauritiinae diverged from its sister lineage Raphiinae ca 106 Ma. Using ancestral state estimation and a lineage through time analysis, we found that diversity arose globally during the late Cretaceous and Palaeocene across South America, Africa and India. The Palaeocene-Eocene transition (ca 56 Ma) marked the end of global Mauritiinae expansion, and the beginning of their decline in both Africa and India. Mauritiinae disappeared from the Indian subcontinent and Africa at the end of the Eocene and the Miocene, respectively. By contrast, Neotropical diversity steadily increased over the last 80 Myr. Taken together, our results suggest that the Neotropics functioned as a continental-scale refuge for Mauritiinae palms, where lineages survived and diversified while global climatic changes that drastically reduced rainforests led to their demise on other continents.

Snakebite incidence in rural sub-Saharan Africa might be severely underestimated.

Snakebites in sub-Saharan Africa account for 20,000 to 32,000 annual deaths. But since most data is retrieved from hospital or incomplete central databases, and many victims do not seek hospital treatment or prefer traditional remedies, the current numbers are likely underestimated. In order to reduce snakebite incidence by 50% by 2030 as targeted by World Health Organization, it is crucial to accurately quantify and understand the current rates of snakebite incidence, which can only be reliably measured through household surveys. In this study, we interviewed 1037 households in nine communities in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique. Our aim was to quantify true snakebite incidence and under-reporting, by comparing the total number of snakebites reported to our team during household surveys with the subset of reports that reached health centers. We additionally quantified snakebite incidence in terms of species, location of the attack, type of treatment, season, and gender of the victims. These data allow us to propose conservative extrapolations of snakebite incidence and mortality for the province of Cabo Delgado and for Mozambique. Of all snakebites reported in the surveys (N = 296), most incidents were treated exclusively by traditional doctors (N = 174; 59%) and 25% were not seen by any doctor. Most bites occurred on farms and during the rainy season. Using a conservative estimation where we assume our results to be extrapolatable for the whole of rural Mozambique, but considering snakebites in urban areas to be inexistent, we propose that in Cabo Delgado, every year at least 6124 people are victims of snakebites, of which at least 791 result in deaths. In Mozambique, we extrapolated that every year at least 69,261 people are victims of snakebite, of which at least 8950 result in death (one in eight snakebites is fatal). Our estimates are the first for Mozambique based on data retrieved in the country, and despite being an underestimation they increase snakebite incidence levels ten-fold and the number of deaths by 30-fold. Urgent and widespread surveys are needed to further assess the full extent of snakebites in sub-Saharan Africa, explore regional patterns and develop mitigation plans.

Diversification dynamics in the Neotropics through time, clades, and biogeographic regions.

The origins and evolution of the outstanding Neotropical biodiversity are a matter of intense debate. A comprehensive understanding is hindered by the lack of deep-time comparative data across wide phylogenetic and ecological contexts. Here, we quantify the prevailing diversification trajectories and drivers of Neotropical diversification in a sample of 150 phylogenies (12,512 species) of seed plants and tetrapods, and assess their variation across Neotropical regions and taxa. Analyses indicate that Neotropical diversity has mostly expanded through time (70% of the clades), while scenarios of saturated and declining diversity account for 21% and 9% of Neotropical diversity, respectively. Five biogeographic areas are identified as distinctive units of long-term Neotropical evolution, including Pan-Amazonia, the Dry Diagonal, and Bahama-Antilles. Diversification dynamics do not differ across these areas, suggesting no geographic structure in long-term Neotropical diversification. In contrast, diversification dynamics differ across taxa: plant diversity mostly expanded through time (88%), while a substantial fraction (43%) of tetrapod diversity accumulated at a slower pace or declined towards the present. These opposite evolutionary patterns may reflect different capacities for plants and tetrapods to cope with past climate changes.

The origin and evolution of open habitats in North America inferred by Bayesian deep learning models.

Some of the most extensive terrestrial biomes today consist of open vegetation, including temperate grasslands and tropical savannas. These biomes originated relatively recently in Earth's history, likely replacing forested habitats in the second half of the Cenozoic. However, the timing of their origination and expansion remains disputed. Here, we present a Bayesian deep learning model that utilizes information from fossil evidence, geologic models, and paleoclimatic proxies to reconstruct paleovegetation, placing the emergence of open habitats in North America at around 23 million years ago. By the time of the onset of the Quaternary glacial cycles, open habitats were covering more than 30% of North America and were expanding at peak rates, to eventually become the most prominent natural vegetation type today. Our entirely data-driven approach demonstrates how deep learning can harness unexplored signals from complex data sets to provide insights into the evolution of Earth's biomes in time and space.

Revised Species Delimitation in the Giant Water Lily Genus Victoria (Nymphaeaceae) Confirms a New Species and Has Implications for Its Conservation.

Reliably documenting plant diversity is necessary to protect and sustainably benefit from it. At the heart of this documentation lie species concepts and the practical methods used to delimit taxa. Here, we apply a total-evidence, iterative methodology to delimit and document species in the South American genus Victoria (Nymphaeaceae). The systematics of Victoria has thus far been poorly characterized due to difficulty in attributing species identities to biological collections. This research gap stems from an absence of type material and biological collections, also the confused diagnosis of V. cruziana. With the goal of improving systematic knowledge of the genus, we compiled information from historical records, horticulture and geography and assembled a morphological dataset using citizen science and specimens from herbaria and living collections. Finally, we generated genomic data from a subset of these specimens. Morphological and geographical observations suggest four putative species, three of which are supported by nuclear population genomic and plastid phylogenomic inferences. We propose these three confirmed entities as robust species, where two correspond to the currently recognized V. amazonica and V. cruziana, the third being new to science, which we describe, diagnose and name here as V. boliviana Magdalena and L. T. Sm. Importantly, we identify new morphological and molecular characters which serve to distinguish the species and underpin their delimitations. Our study demonstrates how combining different types of character data into a heuristic, total-evidence approach can enhance the reliability with which biological diversity of morphologically challenging groups can be identified, documented and further studied.

Limited decadal growth of mountain birch saplings has minor impact on surrounding tundra vegetation.

Temperatures over the Arctic region are increasing at three times the rate of the global average. Consequently, Arctic vegetation is changing and trees are encroaching into the tundra. In this study, we examine the establishment and growth of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa), which forms the treeline in subarctic Europe, and its impact on community composition across the treeline ecotone nearby Abisko, Sweden. Birch advancement along elevational gradients was studied by comparing data collected in 2016 with data collected 10 and 15 years previously. Species identity, cover, and phylogenetic relatedness were used to assess the impact of birch encroachment on community composition. Our results show that birch occurrence above the treeline did not affect plant community composition, probably owing to the observed lack of significant growth due to herbivore browsing, nitrogen limitation, or a reduction in snow cover. Independent of birch performance, the tundra community structure shifted toward a novel community dissimilar from the forest plant community found below the treeline. Taken together, our findings are explained by species-specific responses to climate change, rather than by a linear forest advance. Future treeline advancements are likely more restricted than previously expected.

Global variation in diversification rate and species richness are unlinked in plants.

Species richness varies immensely around the world. Variation in the rate of diversification (speciation minus extinction) is often hypothesized to explain this pattern, while alternative explanations invoke time or ecological carrying capacities as drivers. Focusing on seed plants, the world's most important engineers of terrestrial ecosystems, we investigated the role of diversification rate as a link between the environment and global species richness patterns. Applying structural equation modeling to a comprehensive distribution dataset and phylogenetic tree covering all circa 332,000 seed plant species and 99.9% of the world's terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica), we test five broad hypotheses postulating that diversification serves as a mechanistic link between species richness and climate, climatic stability, seasonality, environmental heterogeneity, or the distribution of biomes. Our results show that the global patterns of species richness and diversification rate are entirely independent. Diversification rates were not highest in warm and wet climates, running counter to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, one of the dominant explanations for global gradients in species richness. Instead, diversification rates were highest in edaphically diverse, dry areas that have experienced climate change during the Neogene. Meanwhile, we confirmed climate and environmental heterogeneity as the main drivers of species richness, but these effects did not involve diversification rates as a mechanistic link, calling for alternative explanations. We conclude that high species richness is likely driven by the antiquity of wet tropical areas (supporting the "tropical conservatism hypothesis") or the high ecological carrying capacity of warm, wet, and/or environmentally heterogeneous environments.

Improving biodiversity protection through artificial intelligence.

Over a million species face extinction, urging the need for conservation policies that maximize the protection of biodiversity to sustain its manifold contributions to people. Here we present a novel framework for spatial conservation prioritization based on reinforcement learning that consistently outperforms available state-of-the-art software using simulated and empirical data. Our methodology, CAPTAIN (Conservation Area Prioritization Through Artificial INtelligence), quantifies the trade-off between the costs and benefits of area and biodiversity protection, allowing the exploration of multiple biodiversity metrics. Under a limited budget, our model protects substantially more species from extinction than areas selected randomly or naively (such as based on species richness). CAPTAIN achieves substantially better solutions with empirical data than alternative software, meeting conservation targets more reliably and generating more interpretable prioritization maps. Regular biodiversity monitoring, even with a degree of inaccuracy characteristic of citizen science surveys, substantially improves biodiversity outcomes. Artificial intelligence holds great promise for improving the conservation and sustainable use of biological and ecosystem values in a rapidly changing and resourcelimited world.

Estimating Alpha, Beta, and Gamma Diversity Through Deep Learning.

The reliable mapping of species richness is a crucial step for the identification of areas of high conservation priority, alongside other value and threat considerations. This is commonly done by overlapping range maps of individual species, which requires dense availability of occurrence data or relies on assumptions about the presence of species in unsampled areas deemed suitable by environmental niche models. Here, we present a deep learning approach that directly estimates species richness, skipping the step of estimating individual species ranges. We train a neural network model based on species lists from inventory plots, which provide ground truth data for supervised machine learning. The model learns to predict species richness based on spatially associated variables, including climatic and geographic predictors, as well as counts of available species records from online databases. We assess the empirical utility of our approach by producing independently verifiable maps of alpha, beta, and gamma plant diversity at high spatial resolutions for Australia, a continent with highly heterogeneous diversity patterns. Our deep learning framework provides a powerful and flexible new approach for estimating biodiversity patterns, constituting a step forward toward automated biodiversity assessments.

Increased resolution in the face of conflict: phylogenomics of the Neotropical bellflowers (Campanulaceae: Lobelioideae), a rapid plant radiation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The centropogonid clade (Lobelioideae: Campanulaceae) is an Andean-centred rapid radiation characterized by repeated convergent evolution of morphological traits, including fruit type and pollination syndromes. While previous studies have resolved relationships of lineages with fleshy fruits into subclades, relationships among capsular species remain unresolved. This lack of resolution has impeded reclassification of non-monophyletic genera, whose current taxonomy relies heavily on traits that have undergone convergent evolution. METHODS: Targeted sequence capture using a probe-set recently developed for the centropogonid clade was used to obtain phylogenomic data from DNA extracted from both silica-dried and herbarium leaf tissue. These data were used to infer relationships among species using concatenated and partitioned species tree methods, and to quantify gene tree discordance. KEY RESULTS: While silica-dried leaf tissue resulted in longer assembled sequence data, the inclusion of herbarium samples improved taxonomic representation. Relationships among baccate lineages are similar to those inferred in previous studies, although they differ for lineages within and among capsular clades. We improve the phylogenetic resolution of Siphocampylus, which forms ten groups of closely related species which we informally name. Two subclades of Siphocampylus and two individual species are rogue taxa whose placement differs widely across analyses. Gene tree discordance (including cytonuclear discordance) is rampant. CONCLUSIONS: This first phylogenomic study of the centropogonid clade considerably improves our understanding of relationships in this rapid radiation. Differences across analyses and the possibility of additional lineage discoveries still hamper a solid and stable reclassification. Rapid morphological innovation corresponds with a high degree of phylogenomic complexity, including cytonuclear discordance, nuclear gene tree conflict and well-supported differences between analyses based on different nuclear loci. Together, these results point to a potential role of hemiplasy underlying repeated convergent evolution. This hallmark of rapid radiations is probably present in many other species-rich Andean plant radiations.

Phylogenetic and functional clustering illustrate the roles of adaptive radiation and dispersal filtering in jointly shaping late-Quaternary mammal assemblages on oceanic islands.

Islands frequently harbour unique assemblages of species, yet their ecological roles and differences are largely ignored in island biogeography studies. Here, we examine eco-evolutionary processes structuring mammal assemblages on oceanic islands worldwide, including all extant and extinct late-Quaternary mammal species. We find island mammal assemblages tend to be phylogenetically clustered (share more recent evolutionary histories), with clustering increasing with island area and isolation. We also observe that mammal assemblages often tend to be functionally clustered (share similar traits), but the strength of clustering is weak and generally independent from island area or isolation. These findings indicate the important roles of in situ speciation and dispersal filtering in shaping island mammal assemblages under pre-anthropogenic conditions, notably through adaptive radiation of a few clades (e.g. bats, with generally high dispersal abilities). Our study demonstrates that considering the functional and phylogenetic axes of diversity can better reveal the eco-evolutionary processes of island community assembly.