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1.
Drug Alcohol Depend ; 229(Pt B): 109127, 2021 Oct 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34781181

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There is little knowledge about characteristics of the heaviest drinkers. This study aimed at exploring 1) socio-demographic characteristics and 2) drinking patterns and drinking contexts of heavy drinkers and other drinkers in Norway, applying various criteria for heavy drinking. METHODS: Data from cross-sectional population surveys among adults in Norway (aged 16 +) in 2015 through 2018 (current drinkers, n = 6 940) were analysed. Two measures were applied to categorize heavy drinkers: 1) AUDIT score (10 +), and 2) annual consumption volume (445 + units) (both above 90th percentile). Social contexts of drinking included location (private homes, licensed premises); social company (partner/family, work mates, friends, no one); and weekend versus weekdays. RESULTS: Heavy drinkers accounted for 10% of the sample and up to half of the total consumption. Heavy drinkers differed significantly from other drinkers with regard to age, education level and criterion; by AUDIT score, the prevalence of heavy drinkers decreased with increasing age and education level, whereas the opposite was the case for by volume. Compared to other drinkers, heavy drinkers drank relatively more often on weekdays and relatively more often alone, and more frequently at licenced premises. CONCLUSIONS: In Norway, the distribution of alcohol consumption is heavily skewed, and the heaviest drinkers differ from the rest of the population in several aspects. This group of drinkers represent an important target for public policy, and there is a need for further knowledge of this group enabling more targeted interventions in addition to policies aimed at reducing the per-capita consumption.

2.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34639847

RESUMEN

Evidence suggests that changes in alcohol consumption during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic were unevenly distributed over consumer groups. We investigated possible inter-country differences in how changes in alcohol consumption are contingent on initial consumption (before or at the start of the pandemic), and how changes in consumption translate into possible changes in the prevalence of heavy drinking. We used data from the European Survey on Alcohol use and COVID-19 (ESAC) conducted in Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland, Spain, and the UK (N = 31921). Past-year alcohol consumption and changes in consumption were measured by AUDIT-C. Drinking habits were compared according to percentiles of pre-pandemic consumption levels, below versus above the 90th percentile. Across countries, drinkers in the highest 10% for pre-pandemic consumption increased their drinking during the pandemic, whereas absolute changes among those initially drinking below this level were modest. The percentage of people reporting >28 alcohol units/week increased significantly in seven of eight countries. During the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol consumption in the upper decile of the drinkers increased as did the prevalence of heavy drinkers, in contrast with a declining consumption in other groups in the sample.


Asunto(s)
Intoxicación Alcohólica , COVID-19 , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34682678

RESUMEN

This paper explores trends in beverage preference in adolescents, identifies related regional differences, and examines cluster differences in key drinking measures. Data were obtained from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD), covering 24 European countries between 1999 and 2019. Trends in the distribution of alcoholic beverages on the participants' most recent drinking occasion were analysed by sex and country using fractional multinomial logit regression. Clusters of countries based on trends and predicted beverage proportions were compared regarding the prevalence of drinkers, mean alcohol volume and prevalence of heavy drinking. Four distinct clusters each among girls and boys emerged. Among girls, there was not one type of beverage that was preferred across clusters, but the proportion of cider/alcopops strongly increased over time in most clusters. Among boys, the proportion of beer decreased, but was dominant across time in all clusters. Only northern European countries formed a geographically defined region with the highest prevalence of heavy drinking and average alcohol volume in both genders. Adolescent beverage preferences are associated with mean alcohol volume and heavy drinking at a country-level. Future approaches to drinking cultures need to take subpopulations such as adolescents into account.


Asunto(s)
Conducta del Adolescente , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas , Adolescente , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Bebidas Alcohólicas , Cerveza , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino
4.
Drug Alcohol Depend ; 228: 109020, 2021 Nov 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537468

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: The present paper extends the scope of testing Skog's theory on the 'collectivity of drinking culture' to adolescent alcohol use in 26 European countries. The aim was to 1) examine whether changes in adolescent alcohol use are consistent across different consumption levels, and 2) explore whether trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged or converged. METHOD: Data came from six waves of the cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) between 1999 and 2019. The sample consisted of n = 452,935 students aged 15-16 years. Trends in alcohol volume across consumption levels including abstainers were estimated by quantile regression models (50th, 80th, 90th and 95th percentile). Countries were classified according to trends showing (soft/hard) collectivity or (soft/hard) polarisation. Trends in heavy drinkers were compared with the population trend. RESULTS: Trends in alcohol consumption at different levels across 26 European countries in the period 1999-2019 were not homogeneous. Collective changes were found in 15 (14 soft/1 hard), and polarised trends in 11 countries (5 soft/6 hard). Collectivity was generally associated with a declining trend. In 18 countries, trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged. CONCLUSION: Accepting some variation in the strength of changes across consumption levels, changes in many European countries occurred in the same direction. Yet, diverging trends at different consumption levels in most countries indicate a less beneficial change in heavy compared with light drinkers, implying that in addition to universal population-level strategies, intervention strategies targeting specific risk groups are needed to prevent alcohol-related harm.

5.
Int J Methods Psychiatr Res ; : e1892, 2021 Aug 27.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34449127

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To examine (1) how a rapid data collection using a convenience sample fares in estimating change in alcohol consumption when compared to more conventional data sources, and (2) how alcohol consumption changed in Finland and Norway during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Three different types of data sources were used for the 2nd quarter of 2020 and 2019: sales statistics combined with data on unrecorded consumption; the rapid European Alcohol Use and COVID-19 (ESAC) survey (Finland: n = 3800, Norway: n = 17,092); and conventional population surveys (Finland: n = 2345, Norway: n1 = 1328, n2 = 2189, n3 = 25,708). Survey measures of change were retrospective self-reports. RESULTS: The statistics indicate that alcohol consumption decreased in Finland by 9%, while little change was observed in Norway. In all surveys, reporting a decrease in alcohol use was more common than reporting an increase (ratios 2-2.6 in Finland, 1.3-2 in Norway). Compared to conventional surveys, in the ESAC survey fewer respondents reported no change and past-year alcohol consumption was higher. CONCLUSION: The rapid survey using convenience sampling gave similar results on change in drinking as conventional surveys but higher past-year drinking, suggesting self-selection effects. Aspects of the pandemic driving alcohol consumption down were equally strong or stronger than those driving it up.

6.
Eur J Public Health ; 31(4): 866-872, 2021 10 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34293089

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, adolescents' alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking (HED) have declined in the Nordic countries. However, little is known about corresponding trends in alcohol-related harm and possible changes in the alcohol-harm association. The aims are to examine (i) whether the decline in HED was accompanied by a decline in alcohol-related violence (AV) and (ii) whether the strength of the HED-AV association changed concomitant with the decline. METHODS: Analysis of data from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD), conducted among 15-16-year-olds in Iceland, Norway and Sweden in 2007 and 2015 (n = 17 027). Changes in proportions of AV and alcohol use past 12 months, and mean frequency of HED past 30 days were examined using Pearsons χ2-test and F-test, respectively. The HED-AV associations were estimated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: HED and AV proportions decreased from 2007 to 2015 in all countries. Among current drinkers (n = 8927), both HED frequency and AV proportion decreased in Norway (P < 0.001) and remained stable in Iceland. In Sweden, AV decreased (P < 0.001) whereas HED remained stable. The magnitude of the HED-AV association increased in Norway (Beta2015-2007 = 0.145, 95% CI 0.054-0.236), remained the same in Iceland and decreased in Sweden (Beta2015-2007 = -0.082, 95% CI -0.158 to -0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Among youth in Iceland, Norway and Sweden, heavy episodic drinking and alcohol-related violence declined from 2007 to 2015. Among drinkers, the strength of the alcohol-violence association was moderated by the extent of heavy episodic drinking.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas , Consumo de Alcohol en Menores , Adolescente , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Etanol , Humanos , Países Escandinavos y Nórdicos/epidemiología , Violencia
7.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33923567

RESUMEN

Little is known about possible changes in alcohol consumption distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated how individual changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic translated into changes in: (i) mean consumption; (ii) dispersion of consumption distribution; and (iii) prevalence of heavy drinkers. We employed data from two independent web-surveys of Norwegian adults collected between April and July 2020 and limited to those reporting past year alcohol consumption (N1 = 15,267, N2 = 1195). Self-reports of changes in drinking behavior were quantified, assuming change being relative to baseline consumption level. During the pandemic, we found a small increase (Survey 1) or no change (Survey 2) in estimated mean alcohol consumption (which parallels to total consumption). However, in both surveys, the dispersion of the distribution increased significantly (p < 0.001). For most respondents, an average modest decline in consumption was found. However, the small fraction with the highest baseline consumption increased their consumption substantially, and in effect, the proportion of heavy drinkers increased markedly (p < 0.001). In conclusion, quantifications of reported changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic suggest that the upper 5 to 10% of the drinkers increased their consumption and hence the prevalence of heavy drinkers increased, despite little or no change in total alcohol consumption.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Adulto , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Humanos , Noruega/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Eur Addict Res ; 27(4): 257-262, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33839730

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In Europe, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a range of restrictive measures, which may have impacted alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: We explored perceived changes in alcohol consumption, their association with sociodemographic characteristics and past year alcohol consumption, and self-reported reasons for change after CO-VID-19 restrictions in Norway. METHOD: A web-based survey was sent to Norwegians aged 18 years and older in June-July 2020. Respondents reporting any past year alcohol use (n = 1,200) were asked whether they drank less, approximately the same, or more after the COVID-19 restrictions compared to before and reasons for drinking less or more. RESULTS: Almost a third (29.9%) reported they drank less, whereas 13.3% reported they drank more. Females, younger respondents, and Oslo residents were more likely to report both less and more drinking (p values between 0.001 and 0.029). Past year alcohol use was associated with less drinking (OR = 0.93; p < 0.001) and more drinking (OR = 1.07; p < 0.001). More drinking was also associated with living with child(ren) (p = 0.023) and high educational level (p = 0.029). The most frequently reported reasons for drinking less pertained to fewer social occasions and less on-premise drinking, whereas reasons for drinking more pertained to treating oneself to something good and fewer consequences of drinking more. CONCLUSIONS: After the COVID-19 restrictions were implemented, a substantial proportion of Norwegians changed their drinking behaviour.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/psicología , COVID-19/epidemiología , Motivación , Autoinforme , Adulto , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Internet , Masculino , Noruega/epidemiología , Pandemias , Cambio Social , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
9.
Addiction ; 116(1): 62-71, 2021 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32285975

RESUMEN

AIM: To (i) examine several factors associated with trends in heavy episodic drinking (HED) in Finland, Norway and Sweden, (ii) investigate similarities in these associations across the countries and (iii) analyse the contribution of these factors to the trend in HED and the differences across the countries. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational study using five waves of the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) from Finland, Norway and Sweden between 1999 and 2015. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 18 128 male and 19 121 female 15- to 16-year-old students. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly HED, perceived access to alcohol, truancy, parental control, leisure time activities and daily smoking. The Cochran-Armitage test was used to examine linear time trends in HED. Logit regression models using the Karlson-Holm-Breen (KHB) method were fitted for each country separately, including all the independent variables together with time and adjusted for family status, parental education and gender. FINDINGS: In Finland, Norway and Sweden, perceived access to alcohol, truancy and daily smoking decreased significantly between 1999 and 2015 whereas risk perceptions, parental control and participation in sports increased in the same period. The confounding percentage of all the independent variables related to the trend in HED was 48.8%, 68.9% and 36.7% for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Decline in daily smoking (P < 0.001) and perceived access to alcohol (P < 0.001) were positively and increase in parental control (P < 0.001) negatively associated with the decline in HED in all three countries. Changes in truancy, going out with friends, and engaging in sports and other hobbies had little or no impact on the decline in HED or displayed no consistent results across the countries. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Finland, Norway and Sweden between 1999 and 2015 appears to be associated with a decline in adolescent daily smoking and perceived access to alcohol and an increase in parental control.


Asunto(s)
Consumo Excesivo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Consumo de Alcohol en Menores/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Femenino , Finlandia/epidemiología , Amigos , Humanos , Masculino , Noruega/epidemiología , Relaciones Padres-Hijo , Estudiantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Suecia/epidemiología
10.
Drug Alcohol Rev ; 40(5): 808-816, 2021 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33314482

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no good explanation for the decline in adolescent drinking reported for many Western countries in recent years. As modern computer gaming is highly exciting and socially rewarding, it may function as a substitute for adolescent binge drinking. We hypothesized a negative correlation between country-level changes in computer gaming and binge drinking. METHODS: We analysed within-country changes based on data from 15-16 year-old pupils (n = 517 794) participating in the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Drugs from 1995 to 2015. Binge drinking in the last 30 days (5+ units on one occasion) was regressed on frequency of computer gaming and three control variables measuring the frequency of engagement in other hobbies, reading books and going out (to a disco, cafe, etc.). RESULTS: Descriptive data showed no general decline in binge drinking across European countries. In contrast to our prediction, the association between binge drinking and computer gaming was not negative [b = 0.26, one-sided 95% confidence interval (-∞, 0.47), P = 0.98, Bayes Factor = 0.21]. We found the same pattern of result in a secondary analysis on six Nordic countries that have experienced declines in adolescent drinking recent years. In analyses with covariates reflecting engagement in other activities, we only observed statistical evidence for an effect of going out. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: A substantial decline in adolescent binge drinking during the years 1995-2015 is only evident in some European countries, and it is likely not caused by increased computer gaming.

11.
Alcohol Alcohol ; 55(5): 554-563, 2020 Aug 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32491170

RESUMEN

AIMS: The aims of the article are (a) to estimate coverage rates (i.e. the proportion of 'real consumption' accounted for by a survey compared with more reliable aggregate consumption data) of the total, the recorded and the beverage-specific annual per capita consumption in 23 European countries, and (b) to investigate differences between regions, and other factors which might be associated with low coverage (prevalence of heavy episodic drinking [HED], survey methodology). METHODS: Survey data were derived from the Standardised European Alcohol Survey and Harmonising Alcohol-related Measures in European Surveys (number of surveys: 39, years of survey: 2008-2015, adults aged 20-64 years). Coverage rates were calculated at the aggregated level by dividing consumption estimates derived from the surveys by alcohol per capita estimates from a recent global modelling study. Fractional response regression models were used to examine the relative importance of the predictors. RESULTS: Large variation in coverage across European countries was observed (average total coverage: 36.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] [33.2; 39.8]), with lowest coverage found for spirits consumption (26.3, 95% CI [21.4; 31.3]). Regarding the second aim, the prevalence of HED was associated with wine- and spirits-specific coverage, explaining 10% in the respective variance. However, neither the consideration of regions nor survey methodology explained much of the variance in coverage estimates, regardless of the scenario. CONCLUSION: The results reiterate that alcohol survey data should not be used to compare or estimate aggregate consumption levels, which may be better reflected by statistics on recorded or total per capita consumption.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Encuestas y Cuestionarios/normas , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Bebidas Alcohólicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Sesgo , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Adulto Joven
12.
Nordisk Alkohol Nark ; 36(5): 413-429, 2019 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32934576

RESUMEN

Aims: While it is documented that substance use harms others than the user, less is known about which substances people experience most harm from, and who the victims and perpetrators are. The aims were: (i) to estimate the prevalence of and overlap in self-reported harm from others' alcohol, cigarette, and illegal drug use; (ii) to examine potential differences in the prevalence of harm from close relations' and strangers' use; and (iii) to examine how the prevalence of harm varies according to demographics and the respondents' substance use. Methods: Population surveys conducted among 16-64-year-old Norwegians in 2012 and 2016 (N = 3407) assessed self-reported harm from others' alcohol, cigarette and illegal drug use with identical measures, demographic variables and the respondents' substance use. Results: Experience of harm from others' alcohol use was most common, followed by others' smoking. For all three substances, a higher proportion experienced harm from close relations' use. Nearly half had experienced harm from others' use of at least one substance. Women and younger participants were more likely to report harm from others' alcohol and cigarette use. While alcohol and illegal drug users were more often harmed by others' use of these substances, smokers reported being less often harmed by others' smoking. Conclusions: Self-reported harm from others' alcohol, cigarette and illegal drug use corresponds with the prevalence of use of these substances in Norway. For all three substances, close relations' use accounted for more harm than strangers' use. Own substance use was an important correlate of experienced harm.

13.
Scand J Public Health ; 47(4): 393-399, 2019 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29516786

RESUMEN

AIMS: There is increased concern about the use of alcohol and illicit drugs in nightlife settings. Most studies of substance use in nightlife settings are from the patrons' perspective, which leaves an understudied population - the nightclub staff. The aim of this paper is to study self-reported alcohol and substance use among staff at licensed premises in Norway: types of illicit drugs used, attitudes towards drugs, and observed drug use among patrons. METHODS: A survey was conducted at server-training courses in 20 different cities in Norway during 2015. The survey included: demographics, respondents' own alcohol and drug experience, attitudes towards drug use, and observed drug use among patrons at licensed premises. RESULTS: Data were collected from 912 staff working at licensed premises. A majority reported alcohol use in the past year, and 61% reported alcohol use two or more times a month. Overall, 45% of the respondents reported ever-used of illicit drugs. The four most commonly used drugs among staff were cannabis, cocaine, ecstasy/MDMA, and amphetamine. The majority of respondents supported Norway's strict drug laws, and 63% reported observing drug-intoxicated patrons at licensed premises during the past six months. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of frequent drinkers and heavy episodic drinking among staff at licensed premises was high, and the prevalence of illicit drug use was much higher compared with the general population. Thus, staff at licensed premises can be considered a risk-group for alcohol and illicit drug use and therefore represent an important target population in club drug-prevention programmes.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Drogas Ilícitas , Concesión de Licencias/estadística & datos numéricos , Restaurantes/legislación & jurisprudencia , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Noruega/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Restaurantes/organización & administración , Autoinforme , Adulto Joven
14.
Nordisk Alkohol Nark ; 34(6): 445-455, 2017 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32934504

RESUMEN

Aims: Is drinking with parents (DWP) likely to curb or to encourage adolescent heavy drinking? The scant number of studies addressing this issue have arrived at contradictory conclusions, which may reflect that different measures of DWP have been used. We pursued the assumption, taking potential confounding related to parental alcohol-specific rule-setting and parenting style into account. Method: Data stem from the Norwegian 2015 ESPAD survey of 15-16 year olds. Drinking with parents at the last drinking event and the frequency of DWP in the past year were assessed among those who had consumed alcohol (n = 1374). Severe drunkenness and binge drinking in the past month were the outcomes. Parental covariates were accounted for in Poisson regression models. Results: One in five (21%) had been drinking with their parents the last time they consumed alcohol, and this DWP measure was strongly and inversely related to both drunkenness and binge drinking. Adolescents who reported no DWP episodes in the past year (61%) and those who reported 1-2 such episodes (30%) barely differed with respect to the two outcomes. More frequent DWP (9%) was significantly associated with an increased risk of heavy episodic drinking, but the statistical impact on severe drunkenness was no longer significant when adjusting for parental covariates. Conclusions: Different measures of DWP were related differently to adolescent heavy drinking, indicating that studies based on DWP at the last drinking event are biased in favour of the view that adolescents may "learn" sensible drinking by consuming alcohol with their parents.

15.
Drug Alcohol Rev ; 29(2): 131-7, 2010 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20447219

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Drinking pattern seems to be an important mediator of the alcohol-violence association. Aggregate level studies have demonstrated that the alcohol-violence association is stronger in countries where intoxication occurs relatively more frequent to the overall drinking. However, this has not been tested against empirical data at the individual level or with respect to violence among young people. Thus, the aim of the present study was to test whether the association between alcohol consumption and prevalence of alcohol-related aggression in young people would be stronger in countries where intoxication is relatively more prevalent. DESIGN AND METHODS: The data comprised school surveys (pupils at age 16) from 13 countries in the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs 2003. The countries were divided into high, medium and low levels of intoxication rate. RESULTS: The prevalence of alcohol-related aggression varied considerably across countries, and was significantly higher in drinking cultures where intoxication is relatively more prevalent. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that challenges for prevention of acute alcohol-related harms in young people may be larger in countries where adolescents to a larger extent drink to intoxication. From a prevention point of view it also seems warranted to direct more future studies into the area of potential for preventing intoxication and drunkenness, not in the least among young people.


Asunto(s)
Conducta del Adolescente , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Intoxicación Alcohólica/epidemiología , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/etnología , Intoxicación Alcohólica/etnología , Comparación Transcultural , Recolección de Datos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalencia , Estudiantes/estadística & datos numéricos
16.
Addiction ; 102(3): 369-76, 2007 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17298643

RESUMEN

AIMS: To assess the aggregate association between alcohol consumption and violence, while controlling for potential confounders. DESIGN AND MEASUREMENTS: The data comprise aggregate time-series for Norway in the period 1880-2003 and 1911-2003 on criminal violence rates and per capita alcohol consumption. Possible confounders comprise annual rates of unemployment, divorce, marriage, total fertility rate, gross national product, public assistance/social care and the proportion of the population aged between 15 and 25. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses were performed on differenced data. Both semilogarithmic and linear models were estimated. FINDINGS: Alcohol consumption was associated significantly with violence, and an increase in alcohol consumption of 1 litre per year per inhabitant predicted a change of approximately 8% in the violence rate. The parameter estimate for the alcohol variable remained unaltered after including the covariates both in the semilogarithmic and the linear models. Of the seven covariates included in the models, only divorce was associated significantly with violence rate. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that alcohol consumption has an independent effect on violence rates when other factors are controlled for. The results support the assumption of a causal effect of alcohol consumption on violence, and it appears that alcohol consumption is an important factor when we wish to explain changes in violence rates over time.


Asunto(s)
Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Crimen/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/psicología , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Estado Civil , Noruega/epidemiología , Factores Socioeconómicos , Violencia/psicología
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