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1.
Ambio ; 49(1): 85-97, 2020 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31055795

RESUMEN

Retention forestry implies that biological legacies like dead and living trees are deliberately selected and retained beyond harvesting cycles to benefit biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. This model has been applied for several decades in even-aged, clearcutting (CC) systems but less so in uneven-aged, continuous-cover forestry (CCF). We provide an overview of retention in CCF in temperate regions of Europe, currently largely focused on habitat trees and dead wood. The relevance of current meta-analyses and many other studies on retention in CC is limited since they emphasize larger patches in open surroundings. Therefore, we reflect here on the ecological foundations and socio-economic frameworks of retention approaches in CCF, and highlight several areas with development potential for the future. Conclusions from this perspective paper, based on both research and current practice on several continents, although highlighting Europe, are also relevant to other temperate regions of the world using continuous-cover forest management approaches.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Agricultura Forestal , Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Europa (Continente) , Bosques , Árboles
2.
J Environ Manage ; 246: 706-716, 2019 Sep 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31220731

RESUMEN

The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Animales , Biodiversidad , Bosques , Alemania
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 650(Pt 2): 2717-2730, 2019 Feb 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30296777

RESUMEN

The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.


Asunto(s)
Aves/fisiología , Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Agricultura Forestal/métodos , Árboles/fisiología , Animales , Bosques , Alemania , Microclima , Modelos Biológicos , Densidad de Población
4.
Sci Rep ; 8(1): 14964, 2018 10 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30297782

RESUMEN

In Europe, intensive forest management has severely compromised the habitat of forest insects, especially saproxylic beetles, due to the removal of deadwood and veteran trees. The loss of insect diversity may disrupt ecosystem functioning and affect the provision of important ecosystem goods and services in the future. Here we propose a novel approach for the implementation of conservation policies, by optimally allocating forest reserves and deadwood islands under multiple sources of uncertainty and minimizing economic risk. We use the saproxylic beetle Lucanus cervus as umbrella species, requiring that deadwood islands were spaced within its dispersal capacity. We show that current management and conservation practices are increasingly inefficient under changing environmental conditions and that the consideration of uncertainty requires a major expansion of conservation areas. Moreover, our results indicate that a strong diversification of management regimes, with a focus on selection forest systems, is required to reduce economic risk of forest management. We conclude that the integration of uncertainty into conservation planning may reduce the trade-off between production and conservation objectives in forest landscapes and is key to increase the efficiency of forest management in the future.

5.
Sci Rep ; 8(1): 345, 2018 01 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29321628

RESUMEN

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe's annual carbon emissions. Forest carbon density can be manipulated through management to maximize its climate mitigation potential, and fast-growing tree species may contribute the most to Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) compared to slow-growing hardwoods. This type of CSF takes into account not only forest resource potentials in sequestering carbon, but also the economic impact of regional forest products and discounts both variables over time. We used the process-based forest model 4 C to simulate European commercial forests' growth conditions and coupled it with an optimization algorithm to simulate the implementation of CSF for 18 European countries encompassing 68.3 million ha of forest (42.4% of total EU-28 forest area). We found a European CSF policy that could sequester 7.3-11.1 billion tons of carbon, projected to be worth 103 to 141 billion euros in the 21st century. An efficient CSF policy would allocate carbon sequestration to European countries with a lower wood price, lower labor costs, high harvest costs, or a mixture thereof to increase its economic efficiency. This policy prioritized the allocation of mitigation efforts to northern, eastern and central European countries and favored fast growing conifers Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris to broadleaves Fagus sylvatica and Quercus species.


Asunto(s)
Clima , Agricultura Forestal , Bosques , Carbono , Europa (Continente) , Agricultura Forestal/economía , Agricultura Forestal/legislación & jurisprudencia , Agricultura Forestal/métodos , Modelos Teóricos
6.
Environ Res Lett ; 12(3): 034027, 2017 Mar 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28855959

RESUMEN

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

7.
PLoS One ; 11(7): e0158823, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27410969

RESUMEN

European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here specifically nitrification is vulnerable to reduced water availability, which can directly lead to nutritional limitations of beech seedlings. This tight link between reduced water availability, drought stress for nitrifiers, decreased gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability and finally nitrate uptake by beech seedlings could represent the Achilles' heel for beech under climate change stresses.


Asunto(s)
Amoníaco/metabolismo , Cambio Climático , Fagus/metabolismo , Ciclo del Nitrógeno/fisiología , Nitrógeno/metabolismo , Árboles/metabolismo , Clima , Simulación por Computador , Sequías , Europa (Continente) , Bosques , Calor , Micorrizas/crecimiento & desarrollo , Oxidación-Reducción , Oxidorreductasas/genética , Suelo/química
8.
PLoS One ; 11(5): e0155137, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27223473

RESUMEN

Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Educación , Agricultura Forestal , Bosques , Alfabetización Informacional , Femenino , Alemania , Humanos , Masculino , Suecia
9.
Nature ; 529(7585): 204-7, 2016 Jan 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26700807

RESUMEN

Phenotypic traits and their associated trade-offs have been shown to have globally consistent effects on individual plant physiological functions, but how these effects scale up to influence competition, a key driver of community assembly in terrestrial vegetation, has remained unclear. Here we use growth data from more than 3 million trees in over 140,000 plots across the world to show how three key functional traits--wood density, specific leaf area and maximum height--consistently influence competitive interactions. Fast maximum growth of a species was correlated negatively with its wood density in all biomes, and positively with its specific leaf area in most biomes. Low wood density was also correlated with a low ability to tolerate competition and a low competitive effect on neighbours, while high specific leaf area was correlated with a low competitive effect. Thus, traits generate trade-offs between performance with competition versus performance without competition, a fundamental ingredient in the classical hypothesis that the coexistence of plant species is enabled via differentiation in their successional strategies. Competition within species was stronger than between species, but an increase in trait dissimilarity between species had little influence in weakening competition. No benefit of dissimilarity was detected for specific leaf area or wood density, and only a weak benefit for maximum height. Our trait-based approach to modelling competition makes generalization possible across the forest ecosystems of the world and their highly diverse species composition.


Asunto(s)
Fenotipo , Árboles/anatomía & histología , Árboles/fisiología , Bosques , Internacionalidad , Modelos Biológicos , Hojas de la Planta/fisiología , Árboles/crecimiento & desarrollo , Madera/análisis
10.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(2): 935-46, 2015 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25242342

RESUMEN

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.


Asunto(s)
Biodiversidad , Cambio Climático , Fagus/fisiología , Bosques , Picea/fisiología , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Sequías , Alemania , Calor , Longevidad
11.
J Environ Manage ; 146: 69-83, 2014 Dec 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25156267

RESUMEN

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Bosques , Simulación por Computador , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Incertidumbre
12.
J Environ Manage ; 134: 153-65, 2014 Feb 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24486469

RESUMEN

The paper deals with the management problem how to decide on tree species suitability under changing environmental conditions. It presents an algorithm that classifies the output of a range shift model for major tree species in Europe into multiple classes that can be linked to qualities characterizing the ecological niche of the species. The classes: i) Core distribution area, ii) Extended distribution area, iii) Occasional occurrence area, and iv) No occurrence area are first theoretically developed and then statistically described. The classes are interpreted from an ecological point of view using criteria like population structure, competitive strength, site spectrum and vulnerability to biotic hazards. The functioning of the algorithm is demonstrated using the example of a generalized linear model that was fitted to a pan-European dataset of presence/absence of major tree species with downscaled climate data from a General Circulation Model (GCM). Applications of the algorithm to tree species suitability classification on a European and regional level are shown. The thresholds that are used by the algorithm are precision-based and include Cohen's Kappa. A validation of the algorithm using an independent dataset of the German National Forest Inventory shows good accordance of the statistically derived classes with ecological traits for Norway spruce, while the differentiation especially between core and extended distribution for European beech that is in the centre of its natural range in this area is less accurate. We hypothesize that for species in the core of their range regional factors like forest history superimpose climatic factors. Problems of uncertainty issued from potentially applying a multitude of modelling approaches and/or climate realizations within the range shift model are discussed and a way to deal with the uncertainty by revealing the underlying attitude towards risk of the decision maker is proposed.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Cambio Climático , Árboles/clasificación , Toma de Decisiones , Europa (Continente) , Fagus , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Modelos Teóricos , Picea , Incertidumbre
13.
J Environ Manage ; 122: 56-64, 2013 Jun 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23557671

RESUMEN

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change.


Asunto(s)
Picea/química , Árboles , Cambio Climático , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Alemania
14.
PLoS One ; 7(11): e50182, 2012.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23185568

RESUMEN

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Gestión de Riesgos/organización & administración , Clima , Cultura , Toma de Decisiones , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Propiedad , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Sector Privado , Gestión de Riesgos/economía , Percepción Social , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Árboles/crecimiento & desarrollo
15.
Environ Manage ; 45(2): 387-402, 2010 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20016985

RESUMEN

The study deals with the problem of evaluating management strategies for pure stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst) to balance adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, taking into account multiple objectives of a forest owner. A simulation and optimization approach was used to evaluate the management of a 1000 ha model Age-Class forest, representing the age-class distribution of an area of 66,000 ha of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest region of Southwest Germany. Eight silvicultural scenarios comprising five forest conversion schemes which were interpreted as "adaptation" strategies which aims at increasing the proportion of Beech, that is expected to better cope with climate change than the existing Norway spruce, and three conventional strategies including a "Do-nothing" alternative classified as "mitigation", trying to keep rather higher levels of growing stock of spruce, were simulated using the empirical growth simulator BWINPro-S. A linear programming approach was adapted to simultaneously maximize the net present values of carbon sequestration and timber production subject to the two constraints of wood even flow and partial protection of the oldest (nature protection). The optimized plan, with the global utility of 11,687 /ha in forty years, allocated a combination of silvicultural scenarios to the entire forest area. Overall, strategies classified as "mitigation" were favored, while strategies falling into the "adaptation"-category were limited to the youngest age-classes in the optimal solution. Carbon sequestration of the "Do-nothing" alternative was between 1.72 and 1.85 million tons higher than the other alternatives for the entire forest area while the differences between the adaptation and mitigation approaches were approximately 133,000 tons. Sensitivity analysis showed that a carbon price of 21 /t is the threshold at which carbon sequestration is promoted, while an interest rate of above 2% would decrease the amount of carbon.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Fagus , Agricultura Forestal , Picea , Adaptación Biológica , Alemania
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